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CFD Markets News and Forecasts — 18-12-2012
Today, the euro rose against the dollar to its highest level in seven months, as the increased probability of U.S. lawmakers still unable to reach an agreement that would avoid the so-called "financial cliff", which immediately caused the strengthening of the economic outlook and reduced demand for safe-haven assets. The single currency was also added after the public debt auctions in Spain and Greece. As it became known, Madrid sold in 3 months. securities at € 1.58 billion, the yield was 1.195% (vs. prev. 1.254%) and 6-months. securities - at € 1.95 billion, with a yield of 1.609% (1.669% prev). At the same time, the yield of 3-month Greek. Bills sold in the amount of € 1.3 billion, also decreased to 4.11% (last 4.2%). Note that both the government managed to raise the amount of money than the planned amount.
The yen fell for the sixth day against the euro ahead of a two-day meeting of the Bank of Japan, scheduled to start tomorrow night. Many analysts predict that it will be decided on a program increase of monetary stimulus, which should have a downward pressure on the yen.
The dollar index (DXY), which tracks the greenback against six currencies, the U.S. partners, fell 0.3% to 79.341, after falling to its lowest level since Oct. 19.
Also in the course of the negotiations today with the U.S. President, the Speaker of the U.S. House Boehner said the president's plan is unbalanced. At the same time, he said that they would continue to seek a compromise, but will also work on a contingency plan, which will be balanced. Boehner added that Republicans are willing to support the proposal to raise tax revenues by $ 1 trillion, but only in the case of parallel spending cuts of $ 1 trillion.
European stocks rose today, that was the first time in four days, as U.S. President Barack Obama has changed his position on tax increases, which increases the likelihood that Democrats and Republicans agree on a budget compromise.
Shares of mining company BHP Billiton Ltd (BHP) rose 0.85%, after the political leaders of China set the economic growth target of 7.5% next year. The cost of Banco Santander SA (SAN) and UBS AG (UBSN) rose by 2.2% and 1.87%, respectively, due to the growth stock lenders. Shares of Ratos AB (RATOA) fell 3.5% after the company said that this year will pay a smaller amount of dividends.
Stoxx Europe 600 Index added 0.3%, ending at the same session at 280.46.
FTSE 100 5,935.9 +23.75 +0.40% CAC 40 3,648.63 +10.53 +0.29% DAX 7,653.58 +48.64 +0.64%
Note that the highest growth of 19 industry groups today demonstrated shares of commodity producers. Most of all, this group gained shares Rio Tinto Group (+1,7%).
Shares of Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena SpA (BMPS) rose by 3.01% to 22.3 cents on the euro.
The cost of Imagination Technologies Group Plc (IMG) rose by 7.14% to 410.9 pence. As it became known, a British manufacturer of chips for tablets and smartphones is likely to reach an agreement when purchasing business MIPS Technologies Inc. It is assumed that the amount of the transaction is approximately $ 100 million
Shares of Actelion Ltd (ATLN) added 1.11% (up to 45.52 francs), after studies showed that the drug causes them to improve. In other news, now that the company will proceed to the third phase of clinical development.
Ratos price fell 5.2% to 64.90 euros, as the Swedish private equity company said it would cut dividends for 2012 to 3 euros per share from 5.50 euros last year.
Shares of Heineken NV (Heia) fell by 0.44% to 49.04 euros after Bank of America Corp. 'S downgraded the shares to' neutral 'from' buy ', but said beer sales will fall from due to the weakening of the European consumer demand.
The cost of oil rose again, recording a session with the third increase in a row, which was caused by speculation that an agreement on the prevention of automatic spending cuts and tax increases in the near future can be achieved.
Futures rose 0.8%, after U.S. President Barack Obama made a new proposal on the income, and House Speaker John Boehner could still change his opinion on the higher tax rates for certain senior employees, although earlier he denied this Agreement.
Note that the budget submitted by the President of the United States suggests to raise taxes by $ 1.2 trillion and increase tax rates for people who earn more than $ 400,000 a year, compared to $ 250.00, which was previously reported. It is expected that this plan can help reduce federal spending by $ 1.22 trillion.
In addition, many market participants are waiting for tomorrow's report on oil from the Department of Energy. Economists say that is likely to be reported to decrease oil reserves 1.380 million barrels last week, which ended December 14.
January futures price of U.S. light crude oil WTI (Light Sweet Crude Oil) rose to 88.02 dollars a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.
January futures price of North Sea petroleum mix of mark Brent rose 80 cents to $ 108.68 a barrel on the London Stock Exchange ICE Futures Europe.
Despite the slight increase for most of the day, the price of gold fell sharply, down with below $ 1700 per ounce.
Note that this trend was due to the tension that was connected with the decision of U.S. lawmakers question of "fiscal cliff." In addition, many investors have decided to reduce their positions in precious metals before the new year.
According to analysts, amid loose monetary policy of the U.S. Federal Reserve, Reserve and other central banks to support prices, as investors are increasingly worried about the decline rates and inflation rise, forcing them to look for other safe assets.
Recall that the price of gold hit its highest level in a month last week after the Federal Reserve announced a new round of monetary stimulus in the form of purchase of treasury bonds in the amount of $ 45 billion a month. But, despite this, a little later fall in prices continued.
Furthermore, economists predict that physical demand from China will increase the eve of Chinese New Year, which is celebrated in February. They also noticed that, as we enter a seasonally strong demand from China, it can support the price of gold up to the beginning of the Chinese New Year.
February futures price of gold on the COMEX fell today to 1693.80 dollars per ounce.
Goldman Sachs (GS) upgraded to Positive from Neutral at Susquehanna
Bank of America (BAC) upgraded at Meredith Whitney
08:00 Switzerland KOF Institute Economic Forecast Quarter I
09:30 United Kingdom HICP, m/m November +0.5% +0.2% +0.2%
09:30 United Kingdom HICP, Y/Y November +2.7% +2.6% +2.7%
09:30 United Kingdom HICP ex EFAT, Y/Y November +2.6% +2.6% +2.6%
09:30 United Kingdom Retail Price Index, m/m November +0.6% +0.2% 0.0%
09:30 United Kingdom Retail prices, Y/Y November +3.2% +3.2% +3.0%
09:30 United Kingdom RPI-X, Y/Y November +3.1% +3.1% +2.9%
09:30 United Kingdom Producer Price Index - Input (MoM) November +0.4% +0.1% +0.1%
09:30 United Kingdom Producer Price Index - Input (YoY) November +0.1% -0.1% -0.3%
09:30 United Kingdom Producer Price Index - Output (MoM) November +0.1% +0.1% -0.2%
09:30 United Kingdom Producer Price Index - Output (YoY) November +2.5% +2.5% +2.2%
10:30 United Kingdom BOE Inflation Letter December
Euro updated 7-month high against the dollar after the auction on state debt in Spain and Greece. This morning, the Government of Spain and Greece held auctions for government debt. Madrid sold in 3 months. securities at € 1.58 billion, the yield was 1.195% (vs. prev. 1.254%) and 6-months securities - at € 1.95 billion, with a yield of 1.609% (1.669% prev). Yield Greek 3 months Bills sold in the amount of € 1.3 billion, also improved to 4.11% (last 4.2%). Both governments have managed to raise funds over the planned amount.
Meanwhile, in Italy's center-right government has called for tax cuts, measures to stimulate the economy, privatization and the sale of assets and stop the implementation of austerity measures.
The pound rose against the data recorded constant level of annual inflation. Last month, inflation in the UK remains at the highest level since May, as the rise in the cost of electricity provided the consumer price inflation above the target mark of the Bank of England. As shown by the Office for National Statistics, released today in London, the CPI index rose by 2.7% year on year, which was in line with the consensus forecast of economists. Similar dynamics are largely inspired by the higher cost of food and utilities. Compared with last month, prices rose 0.2%.
EUR / USD: during the European session, the pair rose to a maximum of $ 1.3190
GBP / USD: during the European session, the pair rose to a maximum of $ 1.6225
USD / JPY: during the European session the pair fell to Y83.81, then recovered slightly and is now trading at Y83.87
In the U.S. at 13:30 GMT will balance the balance of payments current account for the 3rd quarter, the 21:30 GMT - the change in volume of crude oil, according to API. At 21:45 GMT New Zealand will release the current account balance of the balance of payments, the ratio of current account deficit to GDP for the 3rd quarter. At 23:30 GMT Australia will index of leading economic indicators from the Melbourne Institute in October. At 23:50 GMT, Japan will issue the total balance of trade in goods, the adjusted balance of trade in goods, the change in volume of exports and imports in November.
EUR/USD
Offers $1.3240/50, $1.3230, $1.3200
Bids $1.3150/40, $1.3125/15, $1.3100, $1.3085/80, $1.3070/60, $1.3040
GBP/USD
Offers $1.6300/10, $1.6270/80, $1.6240/50, $1.6225/30
Bids $1.6195/90, $1.6175/70, $1.6155/50, $1.6135/30, $1.6110/00
AUD/USD
Offers $1.0635/40, $1.0600, $1.0575, $1.0555/60
Bids $1.0525, $1.0500, $1.0465/60, $1.0450
EUR/JPY
Offers Y112.00, Y111.50, Y111.30/35, Y110.95/00, Y110.70/75
Bids Y110.00, Y109.50, Y109.00
USD/JPY
Offers Y85.00, Y84.75/80, Y84.50, Y84.15/20
Bids Y83.50, Y83.20
EUR/GBP
Offers stg0.8280, stg0.8220 , stg0.8195/200, stg0.8165, stg0.8155
Bids stg0.8095/90, stg0.8080, stg0.8065/60, stg0.8045, stg0.8035/30
European stocks rose for the first time in four days amid optimism that U.S. lawmakers will agree on a budget. U.S. index futures and Asian shares also advanced.
U.S. President Barack Obama, who met Republican House Speaker John Boehner at the White House yesterday, softened his stance on the budget. He lowered his demand for new tax revenue by $200 billion and offered to increase taxes starting from incomes of $400,000 rather than
In China, policy makers set an initial target for economic growth at 7.5 percent for a second year, two bank executives and a regulator official briefed on the matter said. BHP Billiton, the world’s largest mining company, gained 1.5 percent to 2,157 pence, while Rio Tinto Group, the second largest, advanced 0.9 percent to 3,502.5 pence.
Imagination Technologies Group Plc climbed 2.6 percent to 393.5 pence. The U.K. maker of chip technology for tablets and smart phones has probably bought MIPS Technologies Inc.’s operating businesses, as Ceva Inc. hasn’t make a counter bid, JPMorgan Chase & Co. analyst Sandeep Deshpande wrote in a note.
FTSE 100 5,925.93 +13.78 +0.23%
CAC 40 3,632.4 -5.70 -0.16%
DAX 7,627.06 +22.12 +0.29%
In Europe, the EUR / USD strengthened from a minimum of 1.3155 and has managed to regain week high by moving them 1 point. to 1.3190 after the public debt auctions in Spain and Greece.
This morning, the Government of Spain and Greece held auctions for government debt. Madrid sold in 3 months. securities at € 1.58 billion, the yield was 1.195% (vs. prev. 1.254%) and 6-months. securities - at € 1.95 billion, with a yield of 1.609% (1.669% prev). Yield Greek 3 months. Bills sold in the amount of € 1.3 billion, also improved to 4.11% (last 4.2%). Both governments have managed to raise funds over the planned amount.
EUR/USD $1.3200, $1.3150, $1.3100, $1.3000
USD/JPY Y83.00, Y83.50, Y83.75, Y84.00
GBP/USD $1.6200, $1.6000
EUR/GBP stg0.8180
USD/CHF Chf0.9265
AUD/USD $1.0500, $1.0550
Sold E3.523bln vs target E2.5bln-E3.5bln
Sold 3-month E1.577bln; bid-to-cover 2.92 (3.52). At average yield 1.195% vs 1.254% previous
- Sold 6-month E1.946bln; bid-to-cover 2.57 (2.30). At average yield 1.609% vs 1.669% previous
Asian stocks rose, with the regional benchmark index headed for the highest close since March, as U.S. President Barack Obama made concessions in negotiations to break the budget impasse, according to a person familiar with the talks.
Nikkei 225 9,923.01 +94.13 +0.96%
S&P/ASX 200 4,595.2 +21.81 +0.48%
Shanghai Composite 2,162.46 +2.12 +0.10%
Samsung Electronics Co., which depends on America for a fifth of its revenue, rose 0.8 percent in Seoul after Apple Inc.’s bid to ban its rival’s products in the U.S. was denied.
Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group Inc. rose 4.6 percent, pacing gains among Japanese banks on prospects the nation’s central bank may ease monetary policy further.
Tokyo Electric Power Co. surged 16 percent after jumping 33 percent yesterday on speculation Japan’s new political leadership may allow nuclear reactors to restart.
Yesterday, the yen fell against the dollar to its lowest level since April 2011, as the election in Japan won Shinzo Abe, who is committed to the further expansion of monetary stimulus. At the same time, Abe called for the central bank to extend the threshold to 2% inflation and spend unlimited easing to revive economic growth. Note that the discussion of these issues will be held at a meeting of the Bank of Japan, which is scheduled for December 19-20. In addition, it is believed that during this session, the Bank of Japan may announce the expansion of the leniency program.
The dollar rose against most major currencies, as the negotiations on the U.S. budget remain. Note that if the politicians can not find a compromise before the end of this year, from January 1, you will automatically increase taxes and spending cuts to the tune of more than $ 600 billion, which is known as a "financial cliff." Also exerted pressure on the currency presented data on the index of activity in the manufacturing sector of the New York Fed, which declined sharply, reaching the mark with -8.1, compared to -5.22 in November, while analysts expected that the value of this indicator will increase to -0.3. On the dynamics of trade also affected message that House Speaker John Boehner proposed to raise income tax rates of households whose income is more than $ 1 million a year in exchange for cost containment. Earlier, Boehner previously opposed the increase in the tax rates for all income levels. However, U.S. President Barack Obama, who is in favor of tax increases that started from the amount of income of $ 250,000, rejected the proposal.
Significant growth also revealed the Canadian dollar, which has appreciated sharply after the publication of data for Canada, which showed that an investment of Canadians in foreign securities declined much less than expected. According to the report, investment fell to 13.26 billion, compared to 14.12 billion last month, and expectations at around 9.81 billion Canadian dollars.
Asian stocks fell, with the regional benchmark index poised to snap its longest rally since 2004, as suppliers to Apple Inc. dropped. Losses were limited as Japanese shares jumped after a party that backs more economic stimulus returned to power.
Nikkei 225 9,828.88 +91.32 +0.94%
S&P/ASX 200 4,573.4 -9.71 -0.21%
Shanghai Composite 2,160.34 +9.72 +0.45%
Hon Hai Precision Industry Co. fell 4.7 percent in Taipei, pacing losses among suppliers to Apple Inc., which had its rating cut at Citigroup Inc.
Nissan Motor Co., Japan’s second- largest carmaker by revenue, rose 1.8 percent as the yen slid to the lowest level since April 2011 against the dollar.
Tokyo Electric Power Co. surged 33 percent on speculation Japan’s new government will allow the restart of nuclear reactors.
European stocks were little changed as concern U.S. lawmakers won’t agree on a budget before the holiday offset the election in Japan of a party that backs more economic stimulus.
Royal KPN NV slumped 15 percent as the Dutch phone company partly owned by Carlos Slim’s America Movil SAB scrapped its dividend. Aggreko Plc, the world’s largest provider of mobile power supplies, slumped the most in more than 10 years after saying earnings will be “slightly lower” next year. PSA Peugeot Citroen gained 6.4 percent as Europe’s second-biggest carmaker said it is close to finalizing a deal with lenders to refinance debt at its banking unit.
The Stoxx Europe 600 Index (SXXP) retreated 0.1 percent to 279.18 at the close of trading, after earlier falling as much as 0.5 percent.
National benchmark indexes rose in 10 of the 18 western European markets.
FTSE 100 5,912.15 -9.61 -0.16% CAC 40 3,638.1 -5.18 -0.14% DAX 7,604.94 +8.47 +0.11%
KPN (KPN) slumped 15 percent to 3.94 euros, its biggest decline in 11 years. The company cut its dividend as it spent 1.35 billion euros to buy frequencies for faster mobile networks. HSBC Holdings Plc. cut its recommendation on the stock to underweight, a rating similar to sell, from neutral, and forecast a target price of 4 euros for KPN’s shares.
Aggreko sank 22 percent to 1,664 pence, its steepest drop since June 2002. Chief Executive Officer Rupert Soames said the company is facing the same conditions as in 2008 when it suffered a “pretty sharp” drop-off in orders for four quarters.
Vodafone Group Plc (VOD) slipped 1.7 percent to 158.2 pence. Deutsche Telekom AG lost 0.3 percent to 8.52 euros. Tele2 AB retreated 1 percent to 117.40 kronor. All three companies participated in the Dutch government’s spectrum auction, with Vodafone paying 1.4 billion euros and T-Mobile paying 911 million euros, according to the government.
UBS AG (UBSN) lost 0.5 percent to 14.97 Swiss francs, after earlier dropping as much as 1.5 percent. The Zurich-based bank is set to pay as much as $1.6 billion to settle claims of Libor manipulation by the U.S. Justice Department, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, the U.K. Financial Services Authority and the Swiss Financial Market Supervisory Authority, said a person familiar with the probes.
PSA Peugeot Citroen (UG) gained 6.4 percent to 5.60 euros as the carmaker said it is close to finalizing a deal with a pool of banks to refinance debt at its banking unit.
Centamin Plc (CEY) surged 22 percent to 42.14 pence after the gold producer said that exports from its Sukari mine in Egypt have resumed. Centamin said production will restart within the next few days.
Major U.S. stock indexes continued to rise in the last hour of trading, setting all new session high, around which and ended the session.
Optimism about progress on the question "budget cliff", as well as expectations of new measures to stimulate the economy from the authorities of China and Japan continue to provide support to the indices.
As noted earlier, the media reported that House Speaker John Boehner suggested raising the ceiling gosodolga in a deal to address the issue of "fiscal cliff." Also, Boehner agreed to increase tax rates for wealthy citizens, but only for those whose annual income is greater than or equal to $ 1 million recall that President Obama vystuaet for higher tax rates for those Americans whose annual income is more than $ 200 thousand or $ 250 for married pairs.
White House offers after Boehner said that this is not exactly what they want, but "that's progress."
Amid optimism regarding a decision on automatic spending cuts and tax increases, market participants did not attach much importance the macroeconomic data, which were worse than expected.
In particular, the December index of manufacturing activity Empire State weakened to -8.1 vs. -5.2 in November. Index remains in negative territory for the 5th consecutive month. In addition, in October, net long-term capital inflows to the U.S. TIC decreased to $ 1.3 billion from $ 3.2 billion a month earlier. The September figure was revised down from $ 3.3 billion
DOW index components show a mixed trend. Maximum loss show shares Hewlett-Packard Company (HPQ, -3.86%). Shares the lead Bank of America Corporation (BAC, +3.69%).
All sectors of the S & P show growth. The largest growth sector demonstrates utilities (+1.3%). Less all added sector of consumer goods (+0.2%).
At the close:
Dow +100.68 13,235.69 +0.77%
Nasdaq +39.27 3,010.60 +1.32%
S & P +16.85 1,430.43 +1.19%
00:00 New Zealand ANZ Business Confidence November 26.4
00:01 United Kingdom BOE Quarterly Bulletin IV quarter
00:30 Australia RBA Meeting's Minutes
The yen fell toward its lowest level since April 2011 before the Bank of Japan begins a two-day meeting tomorrow with incoming Prime Minister Shinzo Abe pressing it to engage in further policy easing. The yen declined versus all of its 16 major counterparts as BOJ Governor Masaaki Shirakawa met Abe today and gains in stocks worldwide sapped demand for safer assets. Shirakawa said today he spoke with Abe and there was no discussion of monetary policy. The BOJ governor may visit LDP headquarters later today and discuss monetary policy with Abe, Jiji reported earlier, without citing anyone.
In the U.S., President Barack Obama put forward a new budget offer that would raise taxes by $1.2 trillion and increase tax rates for households earning more than $400,000 a year, said a person familiar with the talks. Obama’s plan would cut $1.22 trillion in federal spending, including interest savings, said the person, who spoke on condition of anonymity. House Speaker John Boehner said in his Dec. 14 offer that he would accept $1 trillion in revenue, up from $800 billion, according to a person familiar with the talks.
Australia’s currency held a drop from yesterday after the Reserve Bank released minutes from its meeting this month when policy makers cut interest rates. Demand for the U.S. dollar was limited amid signs of progress in budget negotiations.
EUR/USD: during the Asian session, the pair rose to $1.3175.
GBP/USD: during the Asian session, the pair rose to yesterday's high of $1.6215.
USD/JPY: during the Asian session, the pair rose to Y84.10.
UK data is expected at 0930GMT, with the release of the November consumer and producer inflation numbers. CPI has of course misbehaved for policymakers in recent months, persistently defying the downward path set for it by Bank of England forecasters. The narrative here continues to be one of energy and commodity prices propped up by strong demand from the BRICs despite economic weakness in the industrialised OECD countries. UK CPI is seen at +2.7% y/y.
Change % Change Last
Oil $87.35 +0.15 +0.17%
Gold $1,698.10 -0.10 -0.01%
Change % Change Last
Nikkei 225 9,828.88 +91.32 +0.94%
S&P/ASX 200 4,573.4 -9.71 -0.21%
Shanghai Composite 2,160.34 +9.72 +0.45%
FTSE 100 5,912.15 -9.61 -0.16%
CAC 40 3,638.1 -5.18 -0.14%
DAX 7,604.94 +8.47 +0.11%
Dow +100.68 13,235.69 +0.77%Nasdaq +39.27 3,010.60 +1.32%
S&P +16.85 1,430.43 +1.19%
(pare/closed(00:00 GMT +02:00)/change, %)
EUR/USD $1,3163 +0,05%
GBP/USD $1,6202 +0,28%
USD/CHF Chf0,9174 -0,09%
USD/JPY Y83,88 +0,45%
EUR/JPY Y110,41 +0,50%
GBP/JPY Y135,89 +0,73%
AUD/USD $1,0550 -0,07%
NZD/USD $0,8449 -0,04%
USD/CAD C$0,9833 -0,31%
00:00 New Zealand ANZ Business Confidence November 26.4
00:01 United Kingdom BOE Quarterly Bulletin IV quarter
00:30 Australia RBA Meeting's Minutes -
08:00 Switzerland KOF Institute Economic Forecast Quarter I
09:30 United Kingdom HICP, m/m November +0.5% +0.2%
09:30 United Kingdom HICP, Y/Y November +2.7% +2.6%
09:30 United Kingdom HICP ex EFAT, Y/Y November +2.6% +2.6%
09:30 United Kingdom Retail Price Index, m/m November +0.6% +0.2%
09:30 United Kingdom Retail prices, Y/Y November +3.2% +3.2%
09:30 United Kingdom RPI-X, Y/Y November +3.1% +3.1%
09:30 United Kingdom Producer Price Index - Input (MoM) November +0.4% +0.1%
09:30 United Kingdom Producer Price Index - Input (YoY) November +0.1% -0.1%
09:30 United Kingdom Producer Price Index - Output (MoM) November +0.1% +0.1%
09:30 United Kingdom Producer Price Index - Output (YoY) November +2.5% +2.5%
10:30 United Kingdom BOE Inflation Letter December
13:30 U.S. Current cccount, bln Quarter III -117 -105
15:00 U.S. NAHB Housing Market Index December 46 48
21:45 New Zealand Current Account Quarter III -1.80 -4.28
23:30 Australia Leading Index October +0.7%
23:50 Japan Adjusted Merchandise Trade Balance, bln November -624.3 -848.2
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