CFD Markets News and Forecasts — 19-12-2012

In today's trading the euro increased significantly against the dollar, reaching with an eight-month high, which was due to publish a report that showed German business confidence improved more than expected, triggering this increase in demand for the region's assets. Growth of the euro also helped a message saying that the international rating agency Standard & Poor's upgraded the long-term sovereign credit rating of Greece by 6 points - to B-with a "stable" outlook, the agency said. Earlier, Greece's sovereign credit rating S & P estimated at around "partial default" (SD). Meanwhile, along with the long-term has been upgraded and Short-term - to the level B with a "stable" outlook.

But, despite this, the later the dollar and the yen regained most of the lost positions, which was associated with a statement by U.S. President Barack Obama. As it became known, he revealed a desire to deal on deficit reduction was achieved as early as Christmas. The same time, he said that he may veto the "Plan B" proposed by Republican U.S. because it does not allow to raise most taxes

Japan's currency in early trading demonstrated steady decline, as many investors have suggested that the central bank will be to resort to expand incentive program after ending a two-day meeting. Also on this momentum influenced report, which showed the trade deficit widened in November.

As it became known, exports fell by 4.1% compared to last year, while imports rose by 0.8%, causing a deficit of 953.400 billion yen, which is the third largest on record.

British pound despite his daily growth, which was caused by the publication of minutes of the last meeting of the Bank of England, could not keep their positions, and fell to a session low. Note that according to protocol policy voted 8 to 1 to leave a bond purchasing program unchanged, as the risks associated with the crisis in the euro area declined, while inflation concerns persist.

Today the price of oil rose more than $ 1, breaking the level of $ 110 per barrel on expectations that the budget crisis in the United States will be solved, and the country will be able to avoid a recession.

The rise in prices was also supported by a report from the U.S. Energy Information Administration, which showed a decline of oil reserves by nearly 1 million barrels last week.

The data showed that crude oil inventories fell by 964,000 barrels to a level of 371.650 million barrels in the week that ended on December 14, which was due to an increase in the processing speed of the manufacturers. Many analysts had expected the drop to be about 1.75 million barrels. Note that the current value of the stock is 14.9% higher than in the same period last year.

Meanwhile, gasoline inventories increased by 2.2 million barrels, or 1%, to reach 219.300 billion barrels, up 0.4% from last year. It was expected that gasoline supplies to increase by 2 million barrels.

It is learned that the demand for gasoline in the four weeks ended Dec. 14 was 2.9% lower than a year earlier, and the average was about 8.5 million barrels a day.

In addition, data showed that U.S. refineries operated at an average of 91.5% of the total capacity, which is 1.1% more than the previous week. Note that analysts expected that the value of the indicator will be the same.

Fuel stocks of distillates, which include diesel and heating oil, fell by 1.1 million barrels to 117 million barrels, while expected to grow by 1.5 barrels.

January futures price of U.S. light crude oil WTI (Light Sweet Crude Oil) rose to 89.15 dollars a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

January futures price of North Sea petroleum mix of mark Brent rose 90 cents to $ 109.84 a barrel on the London Stock Exchange ICE Futures Europe.

Today, gold prices have stabilized, after yesterday, they fell to a three-and-a-half month low, which was due to the support of growth stocks, as well as the background of progress in the negotiations for "fiscal cliff" in the United States. At the same time, the impact on the price of gold had published German data, which was better than expected.

Note that in today's trading European shares reached a new high for the year, the euro peaked at 7.5 months versus the dollar.

Also note that this year, the precious metal is trading in line with the market share, and

seeks to capitalize on the weakness of the dollar, which makes assets cheaper for holders of other currencies.

Analysts say that the quick resolution of the financial crisis may in the long term, have a significant effect on the price of gold, as it would undermine the hope for the metal as a safe-haven asset, and will increase interest in other assets.

In addition, the weakness in gold prices in recent weeks has been called the resumption of physical purchases, and especially in Asia. According to the demand for gold in India and in China this week was above average demand, which is celebrated during this time of the year.

February futures price of gold on COMEX today rose to 1673.20 dollars per ounce.

In the course of the European Rally GBP / USD updated high above 1.6300, at around 1.6305. Soon the profit, therefore the pair failed to hold above the psychological mark. At the opening of the New York GBP / USD weakened significantly, approaching yesterday's high at 1.6270.

Today jumped by 30 points to a maximum of 0.9873, USD / CAD met resistance at 0.9880. Keep a positive attitude, the pair is trading just below the highs reached after increasing the rating of Greece, pretty strong statistics from Europe and progress in the negotiations on the "fiscal cliff." MBA Mortgage Applications disappointed markets, pushing the USD on a thin market. Started construction in the U.S. fell by 3% to 861.000 vs. 873,000. Wholesale sales in Canada increased 0.9% compared to 1.5% a month earlier.

U.S. stock futures advanced as President Barack Obama and Republicans continued budget talks.
In Germany, the Ifo institute’s business climate index climbed to 102.4 from 101.4 in November.

Global Stocks:

Nikkei  10,160.4 +237.39 +2.39%
Hang Seng 22,623.37 +128.64 +0.57%
Shanghai Composite 2,162.24 -0.23 -0.01%
FTSE  5,975.89 +39.99 +0.67%
CAC  3,668.14 +19.51 +0.53%
DAX 7,675.58 +22.00 +0.29%
Crude oil $88.20 +0.30%
Gold $1669.20 +0.25

The dollar continues to strengthen in tandem with the yen, recently peaked in April 2011, despite a warning from Fitch about the threat of a downgrade the U.S. at AAA in case of "fiscal cliff."

USD / JPY has made another leap and reached a 20-month high of 84.60 - Yen remains under pressure in anticipation of tomorrow's decision by the Bank of Japan rate.

Currently, USD / JPY was trading at 84.60 in the zone of maximum, with an increase of 0.4%.

EUR/USD $1.3200, $1.3100

USD/JPY Y83.75, Y84.00, Y84.25

EUR/GBP stg0.8150

AUD/USD $1.0500, $1.0550, $1.0600

EUR/SEK Sek8.6365

09:00 Germany IFO - Business Climate December 101.4 101.9 102.4

09:00 Germany IFO - Current Assessment December 108.1 108.1 107.1

09:00 Germany IFO - Expectations December 95.2 96.5 97.9

09:00 Eurozone Current account, adjusted, bln October 2.4 5.8 3.9

09:30 United Kingdom Bank of England Minutes -

10:00 Eurozone Construction Output, m/m October -1.4% -1.6%

10:00 Eurozone Construction Output, m/m October -2.6% -4.1%

11:00 United Kingdom CBI retail sales volume balance December 33 26 19

Euro again renewed a maximum of seven months against the U.S. dollar due to strong data on business confidence in Germany. German business confidence index for the economy rose in December 2012 to 102.4 points from 101.4 points a month earlier, according to the research institute Ifo.

Growth in the euro helped the reported increased Greece's rating agency Standard & Poor's by five points. This caused the hope that most of the Greek problems may have left behind. These actions follow after eurozone countries demonstrated a commitment to support Greece's membership in the EU and the Greek government has shown its commitment to fiscal measures, the agency said. The yield on 10-year Greek, Italian and Spanish bonds also fell, reflecting the relief on the market. Greek ASE Composite Index jumped 2%.

Contribute to the reduction of the dollar and expectations that the Democrats and Republicans in the U.S. will soon be able to reach agreement on a plan to reduce the country's budget deficit. Also, the dollar's decline was caused by a warning from Fitch about the threat of the loss of America's current AAA rating in the case of "fiscal cliff."

The yen fell to its lowest level since August 2011 against the euro on expectations of the program of incentives for the Bank of Japan following the meeting on December 19-20. The yen started to fall on Monday after news of the victory in the elections in Japan conservative Liberal Democratic Party.

Yen down for third day against the dollar after the Japanese government report showed that the trade deficit widened in November. Exports fell by 4.1 percent, compared with a year earlier, the Finance Ministry said in Tokyo. The median forecast of economists was a 5.5% decline. Imports increased by 0.8%, causing a deficit of 953.4 trillion yen, the third largest on record.

EUR/USD

Offers $1.3300, $1.3285

Bids   $1.3220/15, $1.3200, $1.3180, $1.3150/40 

European stocks climbed for a second day as German business confidence rose more than forecast and optimism mounted that U.S. policy makers will reach an agreement on next year’s budget. U.S. index futures and Asian shares rose.

The Stoxx 600 rose for the first time in four days yesterday as Obama changed his position on tax increases. That led to optimism U.S. lawmakers will agree on a compromise budget, preventing more than $600 billion of automatic tax increases and spending cuts -- known as the fiscal cliff -- from coming into force at the beginning of next year.

In Germany, the Ifo institute’s business climate index, based on a survey of 7,000 executives, climbed to 102.4 in December from 101.4 in November. That was the second straight increase after sentiment dropped to a 2 1/2 year low in October. Economists had predicted a gain to 102, according to the median forecast of 43 economists.

Greece had its credit rating raised by S&P following the country’s debt buyback. The ratings company cited the determination of euro-area governments to keep Greece in the 17- nation currency zone. S&P lifted the rating from selective default to B- with a stable outlook, it said in a statement yesterday. The new grade is the highest since June 2011 when the ratings company lowered the country to CCC from B.

HSBC gained 1.3 percent to 648.4 pence and Banco Santander SA added 1.2 percent to 6.03 euros. A gauge of European banking shares contributed the most to the Stoxx 600’s advance after Credit Suisse raised the lenders to overweight, meaning investors should buy the shares. National Bank of Greece SA jumped 6.4 percent to 1.33 euros.

Stada climbed 3.4 percent to 23.51 euros. Platow Brief reported that India’s Sun Pharmaceutical Industries Ltd. and an unidentified U.S. company may make bids for the German generic- drug maker.

FTSE 100 5,972.46 +36.56 +0.62%

CAC 40 3,667.3 +18.67 +0.51%

DAX 7,676.66 +23.08 +0.30%

Minutes of the Bank of England showed that the vote ended with a score of 8-1 in favor of maintaining the same size of the program QE £ 375 billion only one who called for expanding the program by £ 25 billion, was Miles. The solution is to leave the rate unchanged at 0.5% was unanimous. The Bank expects that the bad weather will affect the cost of food, and will further reduce the amount of GDP in Q4 2012.

The pound rose for a mark of 1.6300 (for the first 2 months) and a weaker dollar helped statement of rating agency Fitch on the possibility of a downgrade the U.S. AAA if the "financial cliff" still happen. Later the pair GBP / USD retreated from 1.6305 high and is currently trading around 1.6295.

EUR/USD $1.3200, $1.3100

USD/JPY Y83.75, Y84.00, Y84.25

EUR/GBP stg0.8150

AUD/USD $1.0500, $1.0550, $1.0600

EUR/SEK Sek8.6365

Asian stocks rose, with the regional benchmark headed for the highest close since August 2011, amid confidence U.S. policy makers will reach a budget deal and the Bank of Japan will add to economic stimulus.

Nikkei 225 10,160.4 +237.39 +2.39%

S&P/ASX 200 4,617.78 +22.57 +0.49%

Shanghai Composite 2,162.24 -0.23 -0.01%

Canon Inc., a camera maker that gets 27 percent of its sales in the Americas, gained 6.5 percent.

Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group Inc., Japan’s biggest lender, jumped 6.1 percent on speculation the BOJ will add monetary easing tomorrow.

Whitehaven Coal Ltd. added 8.1 percent in Sydney after confirming it had held talks with China Shenhua Energy Co. while saying it wasn’t approached to buy assets from the company.

Yesterday, the euro rose against the dollar to its highest level in seven months, as the increased probability of U.S. lawmakers still unable to reach an agreement that would avoid the so-called "financial cliff", which immediately caused the strengthening of the economic outlook and reduced demand for safe-haven assets. The single currency was also added after the public debt auctions in Spain and Greece. As it became known, Madrid sold in 3 months. securities at € 1.58 billion, the yield was 1.195% (vs. prev. 1.254%) and 6-months. securities - at € 1.95 billion, with a yield of 1.609% (1.669% prev). At the same time, the yield of 3-month Greek. Bills sold in the amount of € 1.3 billion, also decreased to 4.11% (last 4.2%). Note that both the government managed to raise the amount of money than the planned amount.

The yen fell for the sixth day against the euro ahead of a two-day meeting of the Bank of Japan. Many analysts predict that it will be decided on a program increase of monetary stimulus, which should have a downward pressure on the yen.

The dollar index (DXY), which tracks the greenback against six currencies, the U.S. partners, fell 0.3% to 79.341, after falling to its lowest level since Oct. 19.

Also in the course of the negotiations today with the U.S. President, the Speaker of the U.S. House Boehner said the president's plan is unbalanced. At the same time, he said that they would continue to seek a compromise, but will also work on a contingency plan, which will be balanced. Boehner added that Republicans are willing to support the proposal to raise tax revenues by $ 1 trillion, but only in the case of parallel spending cuts of $ 1 trillion.

Asian stocks rose, with the regional benchmark index headed for the highest close since March, as U.S. President Barack Obama made concessions in negotiations to break the budget impasse, according to a person familiar with the talks.

Nikkei 225 9,923.01 +94.13 +0.96%

S&P/ASX 200 4,595.2 +21.81 +0.48%

Shanghai Composite 2,162.46 +2.12 +0.10%

Samsung Electronics Co., which depends on America for a fifth of its revenue, rose 0.8 percent in Seoul after Apple Inc.’s bid to ban its rival’s products in the U.S. was denied.

Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group Inc. rose 4.6 percent, pacing gains among Japanese banks on prospects the nation’s central bank may ease monetary policy further.

Tokyo Electric Power Co. surged 16 percent after jumping 33 percent yesterday on speculation Japan’s new political leadership may allow nuclear reactors to restart.

04:30 Japan All Industry Activity Index, m/m October -0.3% +0.4% +0.2%

Change % Change Last

Oil $87.90 -0.03 -0.03%

Gold $1,671.60 +0.90 +0.05% 

Change % Change Last

Nikkei 225 9,923.01 +94.13 +0.96%

S&P/ASX 200 4,595.2 +21.81 +0.48%

Shanghai Composite 2,162.46 +2.12 +0.10%

FTSE 100 5,935.9 +23.75 +0.40%

CAC 40 3,648.63 +10.53 +0.29%

DAX 7,653.58 +48.64 +0.64%

(pare/closed(00:00 GMT +02:00)/change, %)

EUR/USD $1,3227 +0,48%

GBP/USD $1,6251 +0,30%

USD/CHF Chf0,9128 -0,50%

USD/JPY Y84,20 +0,38%

EUR/JPY Y111,38 +0,87%

GBP/JPY Y136,82 +0,68%

AUD/USD $1,0534 -0,15%

NZD/USD $0,8414 -0,42%

USD/CAD C$0,9856 +0,23%

04:30 Japan All Industry Activity Index, m/m October -0.3% +0.4%

09:00 Germany IFO - Business Climate December 101.4 101.9

09:00 Germany IFO - Current Assessment December 108.1 108.1

09:00 Germany IFO - Expectations December 95.2 96.5

09:00 Eurozone Current account, adjusted, bln October 0.8 5.8

09:30 United Kingdom Bank of England Minutes -

10:00 Eurozone Construction Output, m/m October -1.4%

10:00 Eurozone Construction Output, m/m October -2.6%

11:00 United Kingdom CBI retail sales volume balance December 33 26

13:30 U.S. Building Permits, mln November 0.866 0.875

13:30 U.S. Housing Starts, mln November 0.894 0.873

13:30 Canada Wholesale Sales, m/m October -1.4% +0.4%

15:30 U.S. Crude Oil Inventories - +0.8

21:45 New Zealand GDP q/q Quarter III +0.6% +0.5%