CFD Markets News and Forecasts — 17-12-2012

Today, the yen fell against the dollar to its lowest level since April 2011, as the election in Japan won Shinzo Abe, who is committed to the further expansion of monetary stimulus. At the same time, Abe called for the central bank to extend the threshold to 2% inflation and spend unlimited easing to revive economic growth. Note that the discussion of these issues will be held at a meeting of the Bank of Japan, which is scheduled for December 19-20. In addition, it is believed that during this session, the Bank of Japan may announce the expansion of the leniency program.

The dollar rose against most major currencies, as the negotiations on the U.S. budget remain. Note that if the politicians can not find a compromise before the end of this year, from January 1, you will automatically increase taxes and spending cuts to the tune of more than $ 600 billion, which is known as a "financial cliff." Also exerted pressure on the currency today presented data on the index of activity in the manufacturing sector of the New York Fed, which declined sharply, reaching the mark with -8.1, compared to -5.22 in November, while analysts expected that the value of this indicator will increase to -0.3. On the dynamics of trade also affected message that House Speaker John Boehner proposed to raise income tax rates of households whose income is more than $ 1 million a year in exchange for cost containment. Earlier, Boehner previously opposed the increase in the tax rates for all income levels. However, U.S. President Barack Obama, who is in favor of tax increases that started from the amount of income of $ 250,000, rejected the proposal.

Significant growth also revealed today the Canadian dollar, which has appreciated sharply after the publication of data for Canada, which showed that an investment of Canadians in foreign securities declined much less than expected. According to the report, investment fell to 13.26 billion, compared to 14.12 billion last month, and expectations at around 9.81 billion Canadian dollars.

• There is a danger to fix their attention on specific target levels

• I am glad, that may no longer tied to specific calendar dates

• Struggling to provide stimulus without damaging price stability

• Inflation is expected in 2013 will be at 1.8%

• GDP growth in 2013 is projected to be up 2%

• I think that it will take 3 years to reach the level of unemployment 6.5%

• Great balance makes the Fed more vulnerable to minor errors

• There is a danger to fix their attention on specific target levels

• I am glad, that may no longer tied to specific calendar dates

• Struggling to provide stimulus without damaging price stability

• Inflation is expected in 2013 will be at 1.8%

• GDP growth in 2013 is projected to be up 2%

• I think that it will take 3 years to reach the level of unemployment 6.5%

• Great balance makes the Fed more vulnerable to minor errors

European stocks were little changed as concern U.S. lawmakers won’t agree on a budget before the holiday offset the election in Japan of a party that backs more economic stimulus.

Royal KPN NV slumped 15 percent as the Dutch phone company partly owned by Carlos Slim’s America Movil SAB scrapped its dividend. Aggreko Plc, the world’s largest provider of mobile power supplies, slumped the most in more than 10 years after saying earnings will be “slightly lower” next year. PSA Peugeot Citroen gained 6.4 percent as Europe’s second-biggest carmaker said it is close to finalizing a deal with lenders to refinance debt at its banking unit.

The Stoxx Europe 600 Index (SXXP) retreated 0.1 percent to 279.18 at the close of trading, after earlier falling as much as 0.5 percent.

National benchmark indexes rose in 10 of the 18 western European markets.

FTSE 100 5,912.15 -9.61 -0.16% CAC 40 3,638.1 -5.18 -0.14% DAX 7,604.94 +8.47 +0.11%

KPN (KPN) slumped 15 percent to 3.94 euros, its biggest decline in 11 years. The company cut its dividend as it spent 1.35 billion euros to buy frequencies for faster mobile networks. HSBC Holdings Plc. cut its recommendation on the stock to underweight, a rating similar to sell, from neutral, and forecast a target price of 4 euros for KPN’s shares.

Aggreko sank 22 percent to 1,664 pence, its steepest drop since June 2002. Chief Executive Officer Rupert Soames said the company is facing the same conditions as in 2008 when it suffered a “pretty sharp” drop-off in orders for four quarters.

Vodafone Group Plc (VOD) slipped 1.7 percent to 158.2 pence. Deutsche Telekom AG lost 0.3 percent to 8.52 euros. Tele2 AB retreated 1 percent to 117.40 kronor. All three companies participated in the Dutch government’s spectrum auction, with Vodafone paying 1.4 billion euros and T-Mobile paying 911 million euros, according to the government.

UBS AG (UBSN) lost 0.5 percent to 14.97 Swiss francs, after earlier dropping as much as 1.5 percent. The Zurich-based bank is set to pay as much as $1.6 billion to settle claims of Libor manipulation by the U.S. Justice Department, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, the U.K. Financial Services Authority and the Swiss Financial Market Supervisory Authority, said a person familiar with the probes.

PSA Peugeot Citroen (UG) gained 6.4 percent to 5.60 euros as the carmaker said it is close to finalizing a deal with a pool of banks to refinance debt at its banking unit.

Centamin Plc (CEY) surged 22 percent to 42.14 pence after the gold producer said that exports from its Sukari mine in Egypt have resumed. Centamin said production will restart within the next few days.

The cost of oil has risen today, which was caused by the fact that investors about the prospects of the transaction on the budget.

Prices rose by 1%, after House Speaker John Boehner proposed to raise income tax rates of households whose income is more than $ 1 million a year in exchange for cost containment. Earlier, Boehner previously opposed the increase in the tax rates for all income levels. However, U.S. President Barack Obama, who is in favor of tax increases that started from the amount of income of $ 250,000, rejected the proposal.

Meanwhile, Republicans and Democrats in Congress are beginning to say that you may need to wait until January to reach a budget deal. Recall that the next two weeks to prevent automatic spending cuts and tax increases totaling more than $ 600 billion, which is also known as a "financial cliff", which is to begin in January. The Congressional Budget Office has stated, failure to prevent these changes could lead to a recession in the first half of 2013.

Prices also rose on speculation the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates low to stimulate the economy after data showed that manufacturing in the New York area in December fell more than expected.

January futures price of U.S. light crude oil WTI (Light Sweet Crude Oil) rose to 87.36 dollars a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

January futures price of North Sea petroleum mix of mark Brent fell 17 cents to $ 108.11 a barrel on the London Stock Exchange ICE Futures Europe.

Gold prices rose slightly, with sustained erasing earlier losses, as the prospects of monetary stimulus in Japan confront uncertainty about the prospects of "fiscal cliff" in the U.S. and published by weak data.

Spot gold prices rose by 0.10% to $ 1,696.6 an ounce after falling by almost half a percent in the previous week.

Note that, in the course of the last elections for the post of Prime Minister of Japan won Shinzo Abe, who is a proponent of aggressive monetary stimulus.

Analysts note that the increased likelihood of more aggressive monetary stimulus from the Bank of Japan may have supported the rise in gold prices in the last few hours.

Recall that the possibility of a monetary incentive encourages the growth of investment in gold as a hedge against inflation concerns.

Moreover, experts note that the scheme is more technically bearish, as the path of least resistance is now in a downward motion. After last week's worth of precious metal fell below its 100-day moving average, breaking with the strong support level of $ 1703 per ounce. Note that now gold is trading below some key moving averages, indicating the possibility of further decline.

Also today it was announced that the demand for gold in India was weak because buyers

expected rate decision from the Reserve Bank of India, which will be announced tomorrow, and could put pressure on the rupiah. Economists say that Indian gold futures are likely to fall to its lowest level since early November, as investors resorted to profit taking at the end of the year.

February futures price of gold on the COMEX is now today rose to 1696.10 dollars per ounce.

M-T EMU outlook remains challenging, see very gradual recovery in H2 2013.

EMU inflation expected to decline further.

U.S. stock-index futures advanced, indicating the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index will snap a two-day drop, as investors weighed prospects for a budget deal.

Obama and House Speaker John Boehner haven’t reached a deal with two weeks remaining to avert more than $600 billion in automatic spending cuts and tax increases, known as the fiscal cliff, set to start in January. The Congressional Budget Office has said a failure to prevent those changes may lead to a recession in the first half of 2013.

Global Stocks:

Nikkei 225 9,828.88 +91.32 +0.94%

S&P/ASX 200 4,573.4 -9.71 -0.21%        

Shanghai Composite 2,160.34 +9.72 +0.45%

FTSE 100 5,891.55 -30.21 -0.51%        

CAC 40 3,629.73    -13.55 -0.37%                    

DAX 7,587.39         -9.08 -0.12%

Oil    $86.90 +0.17   +0.20%

Gold $1,697.50     +0.50   +0.03%

AFT sold E6.288bln vs target E5.1bln-E6.3bln

- E3.395bln 3-month BTF,avg yield -0.010% (-0.026%),cover 2.29 (2.03)

- E1.199bln 6-month BTF,avg yield 0% (-0.015%),cover 4.45 (4.33)

- E1.694bln 12-month BTF,avg yield 0.010% (-0.012%),cover 2.51 (3.96)

EUR/USD $1.3230, $1.3150, $1.3135, $1.3100, $1.3000

USD/JPY Y84.00, Y84.25, Y83.00

GBP/USD $1.6200

EUR/GBP stg0.8120, stg0.8130

EUR/CHF Chf1.2100

AUD/USD $1.0500, $1.0550

00:01 United Kingdom Rightmove House Price Index (MoM) December -2.6% -3.3%

00:01 United Kingdom Rightmove House Price Index (YoY) December +2.0% +1.4%

10:00 Eurozone Trade Balance s.a. October 11.0 10.8 7.9

The yen retreated from the 8.5-month low against the euro and a 20-month low against the dollar, which has been made in the Asian session after the Liberal Democratic Party, which advocated aggressive monetary easing, won the elections in Japan. However, the yen is still vulnerable on expectations that the Bank of Japan may announce the expansion of the program to mitigate this week.

The euro traded in a narrow range against the dollar, as data on the trade balance of the euro area and Italy had little influence on the dynamics of couples, as well as Greece's finance minister calls for the introduction of measures aimed at stimulating growth.

Seasonally-weighted data showed that the trade surplus narrowed from € 11 billion to € 7.9 billion, while excluding seasonal adjustment index increased more than expected, from € 9.5 billion to € 10.2 billion (versus expectations of € 15.5 billion ). Labor costs in the region increased by 1.9% (revised from 1.6%) to 2.0%.

Later today will be published data on the index of manufacturing activity in the U.S. Empire State, which, according to analysts, has strengthened in December from -5.22 to -0.50.

From America came the news that the Republicans can approve a tax increase for millionaires. Boehner spoke in favor of increasing taxes for people with incomes over $ 1 million from 35% to 39.6%, which will help to overcome the fiscal crisis in 2013, known as "the financial precipice."

EUR/USD

Offers $1.3300, $1.3280/85, $1.3240/50, $1.3200/30

Bids  $1.3120, $1.3100, $1.3085/80, $1.3070/60, $1.3040 

European stocks declined for a third day as concern U.S. lawmakers won’t agree on a budget before the holiday offset the election in Japan of a party that backs more economic stimulus. U.S. futures and Asian shares were little changed.

U.S. lawmakers continue to discuss a budget deal to avoid the so-called fiscal cliff, the more than $600 billion in automatic tax increases and spending cuts due to take effect next year.

Japan’s Liberal Democratic Party reclaimed power three years after surrendering half a century of control. The victory of Shinzo Abe’s party gives him a mandate to implement fiscal and monetary stimulus plans.

KPN slumped 12 percent to 4.08 euros, its biggest decline in more than four years. The company cut its dividend as it spent 1.35 billion euros to buy frequencies for faster mobile networks. KPN said Dec. 14 that it won’t pay a final dividend for 2012, after its 12-cent interim dividend, and that next year’s payout will be 3 cents a share. That compares with a previous plan to pay 35 cents a share for this year and at least the same amount for 2013.

UBS lost 1.3 percent to 14.85 Swiss francs. The Zurich- based bank is set to pay as much as $1.6 billion to settle claims of Libor manipulation by the U.S. Justice Department, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, the U.K. Financial Services Authority and the Swiss Financial Market Supervisory Authority, said a person familiar with the probes.

PSA Peugeot Citroen, which rallied 16 percent for the biggest gain on the Stoxx 600 last week, gained 2.1 percent to 5.37 euros as the carmaker said it is close to finalizing a deal with a pool of banks to refinance debt at its banking unit.

FTSE 100 5,884.6 -37.16 -0.63%

CAC 40 3,618.84 -24.44 -0.67%

DAX 7,576.91 -19.56 -0.26%

EUR/USD $1.3150, $1.3100, $1.3000

USD/JPY Y84.00, Y84.25

EUR/GBP stg0.8120, stg0.8130

AUD/USD $1.0500

Asian stocks fell, with the regional benchmark index poised to snap its longest rally since 2004, as suppliers to Apple Inc. dropped. Losses were limited as Japanese shares jumped after a party that backs more economic stimulus returned to power.

Nikkei 225 9,828.88 +91.32 +0.94%

S&P/ASX 200 4,573.4 -9.71 -0.21%

Shanghai Composite 2,160.34 +9.72 +0.45%

Hon Hai Precision Industry Co. fell 4.7 percent in Taipei, pacing losses among suppliers to Apple Inc., which had its rating cut at Citigroup Inc.

Nissan Motor Co., Japan’s second- largest carmaker by revenue, rose 1.8 percent as the yen slid to the lowest level since April 2011 against the dollar.

The yen strengthened from an almost nine-month low against the dollar as technical indicators showed the decline was overdone before elections on Dec. 16 where Japan’s opposition leader Shinzo Abe is projected to win. The Japanese currency pared a weekly loss as Abe has called on the Bank of Japan to provide “unlimited easing” and set an inflation target of at least 2 percent.

The euro reached the highest in seven months versus the dollar as preset buy orders were triggered. The euro touched an eight-month high versus the yen after EU finance ministers meeting overnight in Brussels agreed to put the European Central Bank in charge of all euro-area lenders in a deal that paves the way for the currency bloc’s firewall fund to provide direct bailouts to banks.

The dollar weakened against major peers after consumer prices in the U.S. fell more than forecast last month, a sign the Federal Reserve’s bond-buying program hasn’t caused inflation. The 0.3 percent decrease in the consumer-price index was the first drop since May and followed a 0.1 percent gain the prior month, the Labor Department reported today in Washington. The median estimate of 80 economists called for a 0.2 percent drop. The core index, which excludes volatile food and energy costs, climbed less than projected.

The Canadian dollar was lower against the U.S. dollar after the bank downgrades by S&P and the weak data on shipments in the manufacturing sector in Canada. S&P has downgraded the ratings of several banks in Canada. The list of banks whose ratings have come under attack, included ScotiaBank, Banque National and several smaller institutions. In November, shipments in the manufacturing sector of Canada fell 1.4%

Asian stocks swung between gains and losses after surveys showed China’s manufacturing may accelerate this month and pessimism among Japanese producers increased. Shares in China surged by the most since January.

Nikkei 225 9,737.56 -5.17 -0.05%

S&P/ASX 200 4,583.11 +0.32 +0.01%

Shanghai Composite 2,149.77 +88.30 +4.28%

Agricultural Bank of China Ltd., the nation’s No. 3 lender, climbed 1.9 percent in Hong Kong.

Gome Electrical Appliances Holding Ltd. jumped 7.2 percent after the Chinese retailer was rated new buy at Citigroup Inc.

Largan Precision Co., a supplier of camera lenses to Apple Inc., sank 6.9 percent in Taipei on speculation shipments will slow.

00:00 Australia RBA Assist Gov Debelle Speaks -

00:01 United Kingdom Rightmove House Price Index (MoM) December -2.6% -3.3%

00:01 United Kingdom Rightmove House Price Index (YoY) December +2.0% +1.4%

00:00 Australia RBA Assist Gov Debelle Speaks -

00:01 United Kingdom Rightmove House Price Index (MoM) December -2.6% -3.3%

00:01 United Kingdom Rightmove House Price Index (YoY) December +2.0% +1.4%

10:00 Eurozone Trade Balance s.a. October 11.3 10.8

13:30 U.S. NY Fed Empire State manufacturing index December -5.22 -0.3

13:30 Canada Canadian Investment in Foreign Securities October 13.92 9.81

13:30 Canada Foreign investment in Canadian securities October 6.03

14:00 U.S. Net Long-term TIC Flows October 3.3 22.3

14:00 U.S. Total Net TIC Flows October 4.7

14:30 Eurozone ECB President Mario Draghi Speaks -

16:00 U.S. FOMC Member Jeremy Stein Speaks -

18:00 U.S. FOMC Member Laker Speaks -

23:00 Australia Conference Board Australia Leading Index October -0.3%