CFD Markets News and Forecasts — 20-12-2012

In today's trading yen close to a nearly 20-month low against the dollar after the Bank of Japan announced an increase in the program of monetary stimulus by 10 trillion yen ($ 119 billion) to 76 trillion yen., But kept its inflation target at 1%.

Japan's currency fell against all major currencies this month, as the newly elected Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe urged the Bank of Japan to double the threshold of inflation. The single currency is close to eight-month high against the dollar, due to the growth of the regional consumer confidence with three-and-a-half year low. But in spite of this, the U.S. currency still managed to regain most of the lost ground, what happened after the release of data from the U.S. Department of Commerce, which showed that the economy in the third quarter grew by 3.1%, compared with a preliminary estimate for level of 2.7%. Most analysts believe that growth will accelerate to 2.8% only.

At the same time, U.S. lawmakers continue to try to reach an agreement to prevent more than $ 600 billion in tax increases and spending cuts, due to start in January. While Republicans are trying to overcome their internal gaps related to taxes, by combining spending cuts, the White House said that the proposal is not acceptable, and therefore it can be seen that the negotiations between President Barack Obama and Boehner regress.

The dollar index (DXY) recorded a fifth consecutive decline, down today by 0.1% to 79.253 after touching a level of 79.008 yesterday, which is a minimum of 18 October.

European stocks were little changed near a 19-month high as investors awaited developments in U.S. negotiations to avoid the so-called fiscal cliff of automatic tax increases and spending cuts.

The Stoxx Europe 600 Index (SXXP) increased less than 0.1 percent to 281.83 at 4:38 p.m. in London, having swung between gains and losses at least 20 times today.

National benchmark indexes rose in 12 of the 18 western European markets.

FTSE 100 5,958.34 -3.25 -0.05% CAC 40 3,666.73 +2.14 +0.06% DAX 7,672.1 +3.60 +0.05% 

The U.S. economy grew at a 3.1 percent annual rate in the third quarter, more than previously reported, reflecting the first gain in state and local government spending in three years, more consumer purchases and a smaller trade gap, according to a report today.

SBM Offshore climbed 18 percent to 10.88 euros, the biggest jump since at least October 1989, as the world’s largest maker of floating oil and gas output platforms sought to settle a dispute with Talisman and wrote off the value of a related operation. The company will sell a 9.95 percent stake to HAL Investments BV for $193 million to restore its balance sheet and meet banking covenants.

UBS (UBSN) slipped 1.3 percent to 15.01 Swiss francs. The Hong Kong Monetary Authority has started an investigation to see if there was wrongdoing by the bank in its submission of data for setting the Hong Kong Interbank Offered Rate, according to a statement from the de-facto central bank.

Cap Gemini SA (CAP), a French computer-services company, slid 2.8 percent to 33.53 euros. Accenture Plc, the world’s second- largest technology-consulting company, reported a decline in first-quarter revenue from its consulting business.

Areva SA (AREVA) lost 4.3 percent to 12.84 euros. The maker of nuclear reactors, offshore wind turbines and biomass plants cut its earnings forecast for 2013, citing financing delays at unspecified renewable energy projects carried out by clients.

Immofinanz AG (IIA) slid 4.6 percent to 3.26 euros. The Austrian real-estate company said first-half net income declined to 103.3 million euros from 265.1 million euros a year ago.

Carnival Corp. (CCL), the world’s largest cruise-line operator, tumbled 6.5 percent to 2,380 pence for the worst performance on the Stoxx 600. The company said it sees 2013 adjusted earnings per share in the range of $2.20 to $2.40, lower than the estimate of $2.46.

Согласно докладу, опубликованному Национальной Ассоциации Риэлторов, продажи домов на вторичном рынке в США выросли в ноябре больше, чем ожидалось, достигнув при этом трехлетнего максимума.

В докладе говорится, что продажи существующих домов увеличились на 5,9% в годовом выражении, и составили в ноябре 5,04 млн. единиц, по сравнению с пересмотренным в сторону понижения показателем за октябрь на отметке 4,76 млн. домов.

Заметим, что экономисты ожидали, что продажи на вторичном рынке жилья, поднимутся до 4,90 млн. с 4,790 млн., о которых первоначально сообщалось в предыдущем месяце.

Как стало известно, с большим, чем ожидалось, увеличением продажи домом выросли до самого высокого уровня с ноября 2009 года.

Аналитики отмечают, что на фоне роста арендной платы, и в сочетании с все еще исторически благоприятными условиями доступности жилья, все больше людей покупают дома. В то же время, снижение активности в регионах, которые пострадали от шторма, было компенсировано ростом в незатронутых районах.

В отчете также показано, что средняя цена дома на вторичном рынке выросла в ноябре на 2,1% до уровня $180 600 с $176 900 в октябре. Кроме того, средняя цена была на 10,1% выше, по сравнению с тем же месяцем годом ранее.

Национальная Ассоциация Риэлторов заявила, что количество проблемных домов составляло в ноябре 22%, по сравнению с 24% в октябре и 29% в ноябре 2011 года.

Между тем стало известно, количество домов на продажу составило в ноябре 2,03 млн. единиц, что на 3,8% ниже, чем в конце октября. На фоне этого, уровень запасов домов при нынешних темпах продаж уменьшился до 4,8 месяца, по сравнению с 5,3 месяца в октябре, что является самым низким значением с сентября 2005 года.

The cost of oil fluctuates, as many investors are concerned about the budget negotiations that the U.S. can not oppose the better-than-expected economic growth in the major consumer of oil in the world.

Futures fell 0.8% on speculation that efforts to prevent so-called "financial cliff", which results in an increase of taxes and spending cuts, deteriorating. Also released today data from the Commerce Department showed that the U.S. economy grew by 3.1% in the third quarter, which was much more than the most optimistic forecast. Recall that according to the preliminary assessment of the U.S. economy expanded by just 2.7%.

At the same time, another report showed that the index of U.S. leading indicators declined in November, pointing to a slowdown in the economy at the beginning of next year, as companies reduce the amount of investment. Note also that the index, which assesses the prospects for the next three to six months, fell by 0.2%, after a revised 0.3% gain in October that was more than initially reported.

Other reports showed that manufacturing in the Philadelphia region unexpectedly rose to an eight-month high, while nationwide sales in the secondary market rose in November to a three-year high.

February futures price of U.S. light crude oil WTI (Light Sweet Crude Oil) fell to 89.56 dollars a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

February futures price for North Sea petroleum mix of mark Brent fell 9 cents to $ 110.00 a barrel on the London Stock Exchange ICE Futures Europe.

Today, the price of gold fell more than 1%, while reaching its lowest level in nearly and overcome the critical support level at $ 1661 per ounce, which was caused by the increase in sales to investors in anticipation of the new year.

Note that prices showed the largest quarterly decline since the third quarter of 2008, in the period from October to December, amid the announcement of a new round of easing monetary policy in the past month, which has had a temporary positive effect on the price of gold.

Analysts point out that at the end of the year, many investors have decided to reduce their positions in gold, investing in this in other more lucrative assets, as the issue of "fiscal cliff" a negative effect on mood.

Meanwhile, physical buying in Asia rose after the price of gold fell earlier this week, and some market participants are concerned about potential shortages over the next week, as most of the plants are closed for holidays.

February futures price of gold on the COMEX fell today to 1643.40 dollars per ounce.

Loonie strengthened in tandem with the dollar after a report on retail sales came out of Canada more than expected, and the U.S. GDP in Q3. has been revised to increase to 3.1%.

USD/CAD retreated from a 2-week high of 0.9895 reached before the release of the report, and re-tested the day low 0.9874 before meeting support. Currently the pair is trading at 0.9894 on intraday highs.

After the release of statistics from the U.S. unit pair EUR / USD went in around $ 1.3300, reaching a high of $ 1.3295. Accumulation of sell orders noted just at $ 1.3300 / 1 with stops above, so the pair could not break that barrier.

At the moment the pair retreated from the peak and is trading at at $ 1.3275.

US stock futures fluctuated near a 2-year high as investors awaited developments in U.S. negotiations to avoid the so-called fiscal cliff. U.S. index futures and Asian shares were little changed.

Global Stocks:

Nikkei  10,039.33 -121.07 -1.19%
Hang Seng 22,659.78 +36.41 +0.16%
Shanghai Composite 2,168.35 +6.11 +0.28%
FTSE  5,967.86 +6.27 +0.11%
CAC  3,672.17 +7.58 +0.21%
DAX 7,670.37 +1.87 +0.02%
Crude oil $89.47 -0.57%
Gold $1654.00 -0.82%

Microsoft (MSFT) was reiterated Mkt Perform at FBR Capital. Target was lowered from $32 to $30.

EUR/USD $1.3250, $1.3275, $1.3290, $1.3300

USD/JPY Y83.40, Y83.50, Y84.00, Y84.30, Y84.50

GBP/USD $1.6300, $1.6100

EUR/CHF Chf1.2090

AUD/USD $1.0400, $1.0455, $1.0480, $1.0500, $1.0525, $1.0600

NZD/USD $0.8350, $0.8425

USD/CHF Chf0.9150

EUR/SEK Sek8.6295

EUR/NOK Nok7.3000

07:00 Switzerland Trade Balance - 2.73 2.17 2.95

07:00 Germany Producer Price Index (MoM) November 0.0% -0.1% -0.1%

07:00 Germany Producer Price Index (YoY) November +1.5% +1.4% +1.4%

07:20 Japan BOJ Press Conference -

09:30 United Kingdom Retail Sales (MoM) November -0.7% +0.3% 0.0%

09:30 United Kingdom Retail Sales (YoY) November +0.8% +1.5% +0.9%

The yen strengthened the most in six weeks against the dollar as the Bank of Japan maintained its inflation goal at 1 percent after newly elected Prime Minister Shinzo Abe called for a doubling of the target. Japan’s currency rose for the first time in eight days versus the euro even as the central bank expanded its asset- purchase fund by 10 trillion yen ($119 billion) to 76 trillion yen.

The euro approached an eight-month high against the dollar after a report that the Greek government has completed transactions to repurchase debt of € 31.9 billion in the same time, the data showed that Germany's producer price index and import prices came under forecast: +1.4% y / y m 1.1% y / y

The pound dropped for a third day against the euro as a report showed retail sales unexpectedly stagnated last month.I t is the latest sign of a slowing economy as a whole in the 4th quarter. Retail sales in the UK in November remained unchanged compared with October, but rose by 0.9% compared to November last year. For the three months through November as there have been no growth in sales compared to the previous three period. Data were weaker than expected. Economists had expected sales to rise 0.3% compared to the previous month and by 1.4% compared with the same period last year.

EUR / USD: during the European session, the pair rose to a maximum of $ 1.3268

GBP / USD: during the European session, the pair rose to a maximum of $ 1.6280

USD / JPY: during the European session the pair fell to a minimum Y83.85 and then recovered

EUR/USD

Offers  $1.3300/10, $1.3255/65

Bids   $1.3190/85, $1.3150/40, $1.3125/15, $1.3100

European stocks fluctuated near a 19-month high as investors awaited developments in U.S. negotiations to avoid the so-called fiscal cliff.

Officials from President Barack Obama’s administration told leaders of U.S. business and financial-services groups that negotiations with House Speaker John Boehner, a Republican, have deteriorated in the last 24 hours, according to a person familiar with the meeting.

Ericsson fell 2.7 percent to 64.55 kronor as the world’s largest maker of mobile-phone networks took the charge for writing down the value of ST-Ericsson. The company said it won’t buy a full majority of the unit after Geneva-based STMicroelectronics said it will exit the venture.

SBM Offshore climbed 14 percent to 10.52 euros, the biggest increase in nine months, as the world’s largest maker of floating oil and gas output platforms sought to settle a dispute with Talisman and wrote off the value of a related operation. The company will sell a 9.95 percent stake to HAL Investments BV for $193 million to restore its balance sheet and meet banking covenants.

Cap Gemini SA, a French computer-services company, slid 2.9 percent to 33.50 euros. Accenture Plc, the world’s second- largest technology-consulting company, reported a decline in first-quarter sales of its advice.

FTSE 100 5,965.36 +3.77 +0.06%

CAC 40 3,664.68 +0.09 0.00%

DAX 7,663.44 -5.06 -0.07%

EUR / USD down during the Asian session, testing the 1.32 before you begin to recover from yesterday's fall on risk aversion. Sharp rally took place before the opening of the European session. Pair reached 1.3236 high on data on producer prices and import prices in Germany.

Both figures Germany - producer price index and the price index for imports - came below expectations: 1.4% m / m 1.1 m% y / y The Greek government has announced the completion of the transactions to repurchase debt of € 31.9 billion

After a brief period of consolidation EUR / USD moves back to new highs, reaching 1.3250 already.

USD/JPY fell on Thursday after falling from the highs of 84.60 yesterday. The pair remains in negative territory amid unexpected growth yen. Now the pair is testing the 84.00 mark.

USD/JPY came under pressure and hit a low 83.86, after the Bank of Japan decided to expand the asset purchase program to ¥ 10 trillion. to ¥ 76 trillion., as expected.

Also important is the fact that the Central Bank "to examine" the probability of changing the inflation target at the next meeting in favor of the new prime minister Abe.

EUR/USD $1.3250, $1.3290, $1.3300

USD/JPY Y83.50, Y84.00, Y84.30, Y84.50

GBP/USD $1.6300

EUR/CHF Chf1.2090

AUD/USD $1.0400, $1.0480, $1.0500

NZD/USD $0.8350, $0.8425

EUR/SEK Sek8.6295

EUR/NOK Nok7.3000

Most Asian stocks fell, with the regional benchmark index dropping from a 16-month high amid concern U.S. budget negotiations are faltering and as a surging yen weighed on Japanese stocks. The Bank of Japan  boosted its asset purchase program for the third time in four months.

Nikkei 225 10,039.33 -121.07 -1.19%

S&P/ASX 200 4,634.11 +16.33 +0.35%

Shanghai Composite 2,168.35 +6.11 +0.28%

Samsung Electronics Co., which gets a fifth of its revenue in America, dropped 0.8 percent in Seoul.

Canon Inc., a camera maker that gets 80 percent of its sales outside Japan, dropped 2.9 percent.

Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group Inc., Japan’s biggest lender, advanced 1.2 percent.

Nissan Motor Co. slumped 7.4 percent after Nomura Holdings Inc. cut its rating on the stock.

Yesterday, the euro increased significantly against the dollar, reaching with an eight-month high, which was due to publish a report that showed German business confidence improved more than expected, triggering this increase in demand for the region's assets. Growth of the euro also helped a message saying that the international rating agency Standard & Poor's upgraded the long-term sovereign credit rating of Greece by 6 points - to B-with a "stable" outlook, the agency said. Earlier, Greece's sovereign credit rating S & P estimated at around "partial default" (SD). Meanwhile, along with the long-term has been upgraded and Short-term - to the level B with a "stable" outlook.

But, despite this, the later the dollar and the yen regained most of the lost positions, which was associated with a statement by U.S. President Barack Obama. As it became known, he revealed a desire to deal on deficit reduction was achieved as early as Christmas. The same time, he said that he may veto the "Plan B" proposed by Republican U.S. because it does not allow to raise most taxes

Japan's currency in early trading demonstrated steady decline, as many investors have suggested that the central bank will be to resort to expand incentive program after ending a two-day meeting. Also on this momentum influenced report, which showed the trade deficit widened in November.

As it became known, exports fell by 4.1% compared to last year, while imports rose by 0.8%, causing a deficit of 953.400 billion yen, which is the third largest on record.

British pound despite his daily growth, which was caused by the publication of minutes of the last meeting of the Bank of England, could not keep their positions, and fell to a session low. Note that according to protocol policy voted 8 to 1 to leave a bond purchasing program unchanged, as the risks associated with the crisis in the euro area declined, while inflation concerns persist.

• DESIRABLE PRICES TO RISE ABOVE 1% IF ECON GROWS

• ABE REQUEST A FACTOR BEHIND BOJ REVIEWING GOAL

• CALLED ABE, NODA AFTER TODAY'S MEETING ON DECISION

• BOJ Shirakawa REPEATS BOJ JGB BUYING NOT FOR FINANCING GOVT

• REVIEWING DESIRABLE PRICES NOT LINKED TO POLACCORD

  
  

Asian stocks rose, with the regional benchmark headed for the highest close since August 2011, amid confidence U.S. policy makers will reach a budget deal and the Bank of Japan will add to economic stimulus.

Nikkei 225 10,160.4 +237.39 +2.39%

S&P/ASX 200 4,617.78 +22.57 +0.49%

Shanghai Composite 2,162.24 -0.23 -0.01%

Canon Inc., a camera maker that gets 27 percent of its sales in the Americas, gained 6.5 percent.

Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group Inc., Japan’s biggest lender, jumped 6.1 percent on speculation the BOJ will add monetary easing tomorrow.

Whitehaven Coal Ltd. added 8.1 percent in Sydney after confirming it had held talks with China Shenhua Energy Co. while saying it wasn’t approached to buy assets from the company.

00:30 Australia RBA Bulletin IV quarter

02:00 China Leading Index November +1.6% +1.1%

03:00 Japan BoJ Interest Rate Decision - 0.10% 0.10% 0.10%

03:00 Japan BoJ Monetary Policy Statement

Change % Change Last

Oil $89.42 -0.09 -0.10%

Gold $1,669.90 +2.20 +0.13% 

Change % Change Last

Nikkei 225 10,160.4 +237.39 +2.39%

S&P/ASX 200 4,617.78 +22.57 +0.49%

Shanghai Composite 2,162.24 -0.23 -0.01%

FTSE 100 5,961.59 +25.69 +0.43%

CAC 40 3,664.59 +15.96 +0.44%

DAX 7,668.5 +14.92 +0.19%

(pare/closed(00:00 GMT +02:00)/change, %)

EUR/USD $1,3225 -0,02%

GBP/USD $1,6245 -0,04%

USD/CHF Chf0,9132 +0,04%

USD/JPY Y84,39 +0,23%

EUR/JPY Y111,62 +0,22%

GBP/JPY Y137,11 +0,21%

AUD/USD $1,0480 -0,52%

NZD/USD $0,8340 -0,89%

USD/CAD C$0,9887 +0,31%

00:30 Australia RBA Bulletin IV quarter

02:00 China Leading Index November +1.6% +1.1%

03:00 Japan BoJ Interest Rate Decision - 0.10% 0.10% 0.10%

03:00 Japan BoJ Monetary Policy Statement -

07:00 Switzerland Trade Balance - 2.82 2.17

07:00 Germany Producer Price Index (MoM) November 0.0% -0.1%

07:00 Germany Producer Price Index (YoY) November +1.5% +1.4%

07:20 Japan BOJ Press Conference -

09:30 United Kingdom Retail Sales (MoM) November -0.8% +0.3%

09:30 United Kingdom Retail Sales (YoY) November +0.6% +1.5%

13:30 Canada Retail Sales, m/m October +0.1% +0.1%

13:30 Canada Retail Sales ex Autos, m/m October 0.0% +0.2%

13:30 U.S. Initial Jobless Claims - 343 350

13:30 U.S. GDP, q/q (finally) Quarter III +2.7% +2.8%

13:30 U.S. PCE price index, q/q Quarter III +1.4% +1.6%

13:30 U.S. PCE price index ex food, energy, q/q Quarter III +1.1% +1.1%

14:00 Belgium Business Climate December -13.4 -14.3

15:00 Eurozone Consumer Confidence December -26.9 -26.5

15:00 U.S. Existing Home Sales November 4.79 4.85

15:00 U.S. Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey December -10.7 -1.8

15:00 U.S. Leading Indicators November +0.2% -0.1%

15:00 U.S. Housing Price Index, m/m October +0.2% +0.2%

15:00 U.S. Housing Price Index, y/y October +4.4%