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CFD Markets News and Forecasts — 21-12-2012
In today's trading the yen and the dollar strengthened, which was caused by the flight of investors in these assets due to concerns that a deal to reduce the deficit will not be achieved, against which spending cuts and tax increases will not be possible to avoid.
The single currency has lost all of his conquered during the day, the position relative to the dollar, after it was reported that a scheduled vote on the plan, Speaker John Boehner was canceled. Note that members of the House of Representatives and the Senate decided to continue voting after Christmas. Note that to solve the problem they will have less than a week. Meanwhile, to reach an agreement, Boehner should receive sufficient support from the Republicans, and to maintain control over his party, relying on the votes of Democrats who need to take any action. In addition, the decline of the euro has also been caused by the statement that the Italian Prime Minister Mario Monti will retire.
Showed a significant drop in today and the pound, which fell to a seven-week high against the dollar after a report showed that the UK economy grew in the third quarter, less than previously estimated, and the budget deficit unexpectedly increased last month. It is learned that the gross domestic product grew by 0.9%, while the original estimate was 1%. Between it, the deficit without state support of banks was 17.5 billion pounds compared with 16.3 billion pounds a year earlier.
In addition, the London research group GfK said its sentiment index fell to -29 in November from -22 in November, which was the highest level since May 2011.
European (SXXP) stocks fell from a 19-month high as U.S. House Republicans canceled a vote on higher taxes for top earners, fueling concern budget talks will fail.
The Stoxx Europe 600 Index dropped 0.3 percent to 280.95 at the close in London, paring its weekly gain to 0.6 percent.
Indexes pared earlier losses after a report showed orders for durable goods in the U.S. climbed 0.7 percent last month, beating the median forecast for a 0.3 percent increase in a Bloomberg survey. A separate release showed U.S. consumer confidence fell in December to a five-month low.
National benchmark indexes fell in 12 of the 18 western European markets.
FTSE 100 5,939.99 -18.35 -0.31% CAC 40 3,661.4 -5.33 -0.15% DAX 7,636.23 -35.87 -0.47%
Aeroports de Paris (ADP) slumped 5.4 percent to 58.62 euros, the biggest decline since August 2011, after cutting projections for earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization and for traffic growth. ADP now expects Ebitda growth of 25 percent to 35 percent between 2009 and 2015, compared with its previous forecast of 40 percent.
ArcelorMittal dropped 2.5 percent to 12.88 euros. The world’s biggest steelmaker will write down the goodwill in its European businesses by about $4.3 billion as the region’s weakening economy erodes demand.
Eurasian Natural Resources Corp., a producer of ferro alloys and iron ore in Kazakhstan, slid 1.4 percent to 276.9 pence. The stock was cut to neutral from buy at Goldman Sachs Group Inc. A measure of the shares of commodity companies declined for a third day.
Alcatel-Lucent SA (ALU) lost 3.8 percent to 1.02 euro. Standard & Poor’s may cut the French network-equipment vendor’s long-term rating.
Spectris Plc (SXS) fell 1.5 percent to 2,019 pence, for the largest drop in more than a month. the U.K.’s biggest maker of production-testing gear was downgraded to hold from buy at Investec.
Today the price of oil fell for the first time in six days, which was due to fears that U.S. lawmakers will not prevent a financial crisis after Republican leaders canceled a planned vote on higher taxes for the "superior" workers.
Prices have fallen by as much as 2.3% after House Speaker John Boehner rejected the plan, while allowing to consider a higher tax rate for annual incomes over $ 1 million
Analysts noted that oil was growing all week on hopes that the U.S. intends to solve this problem, but now it seems that there is no quick fix. Meanwhile, time is running out, and fears in the market are growing more and more.
Note that members of the House of Representatives and the Senate decided to continue voting after Christmas. Note that to solve the problem they will have less than a week. Meanwhile, to reach an agreement, Boehner should receive sufficient support from the Republicans, and to maintain control over his party, relying on the votes of Democrats who need to take any action.
Recall that the Congressional Budget Office has stated that it is not possible to solve the issue is likely to lead the U.S. economy, which is the largest oil consumer in the world, to the recession in the first half of 2013.
February futures price of U.S. light crude oil WTI (Light Sweet Crude Oil) fell to 88.33 dollars a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.
February futures price for North Sea petroleum mix of mark Brent fell $ 1.49 to $ 108.71 a barrel on the London Stock Exchange ICE Futures Europe.
Today the gold price declined again, reaching minimum values at the same time the previous day, which at the same time be a four-month low, showing with the largest weekly decline for the week of June this year. It is learned that this pattern was associated with the rise of the U.S. dollar, as well as "tipikom" in the negotiations related to the "fiscal cliff." Recall that yesterday's sharp drop was due to the fact that the Speaker of the House John Boehner was not able to join their Republican lawmakers in an attempt to extract concessions from President Barack Obama's budget issues. Note that the new plan is more uncertainty in the negotiations on izbezhenayu tax increases and spending cuts that could push the U.S. economy into recession in 2013. In theory, such a result could raise the appeal of gold as a safe-haven.
However, analysts say this uncertainty, however, discouraged some investors to put their money into gold.
Also today, it was reported that Iraq has made the first major step for the year, which was reflected in an increase in foreign exchange reserves in recent months, joining with the central banks of emerging market economies such as Brazil and Russia to diversify its foreign reserves.
But, despite this decline in early trading, the price of gold eventually grew, restoring more than half the losses incurred yesterday. Note also that prices continue to rise, even in spite of the fact that the dollar is strengthening.
February futures price of gold on the COMEX fell rose to 1656.70 dollars per ounce.
Futures indicate a down open. The negative tone is due to a major setback in hopes for a fiscal cliff compromise.
House Republican leader Boehner pulled his plan for a vote on an alternative to the impending fiscal cliff laws and sent House members home through Christmas. Apparently, he did not have Republican votes for his plan.
Global Stocks:
Nikkei 9,940.06 -99.27 -0.99%
Hang Seng 22,506.29 -153.49 -0.68%
Shanghai Composite 2,153.31 -15.04 -0.69%
FTSE 5,914.7 -43.64 -0.73%
CAC 3,646.21 -20.52 -0.56%
DAX 7,609.14 -62.96 -0.82%
Crude oil $89.19 -1.04%
Gold $1650.00 +0.25%
Pair USD/CAD updated intraday high 0.9927 after the block statistics, the U.S. and Canada.
Canadian GDP in October showed the dynamics at the level of 0.1% m / m and 1.1% y / y vs. 0% / 1% in September, coinciding with the forecasts.
Canada's consumer price index in November reflected the dynamics at the level of -0.2% m / m and +0.8% y / y in November against a 1.2% rise. Baseline figure which does not include food and energy, remained in the flat m / m, while increased by 1.2% y / y vs. 1.3% expected. November's CPI rise annual rate was the lowest since October 2009.
EUR/USD $1.3100, $1.3180, $1.3200, $1.3250, $1.3300, $1.3320
USD/JPY Y83.75, Y84.00, Y84.20, Y84.50, Y84.60, Y85.00
GBP/USD $1.6200, $1.6195
EUR/GBP stg0.8100, stg0.8200
EUR/CHF Chf1.2155
AUD/USD $1.0400, $1.0495, $1.0500, $1.0600
NZD/USD $0.8375
AUD/NZD NZ$1.2700
07:00 Germany Gfk Consumer Confidence Survey January 5.9 5.9 5.6
09:30 United Kingdom Current account, bln Quarter III -20.8 -13.7 -12.8
09:30 United Kingdom PSNB, bln November 6.5 14.8 15.3
09:30 United Kingdom GDP, q/q (finally) Quarter III +1.0% +1.0% +0.9%
09:30 United Kingdom GDP, y/y (finally) Quarter III -0.1% -0.1% 0.0%
EUR / USD was trading without a trend at the time, as investors continue to closely follow the news from the U.S. in terms of the budget negotiations for 2013. Now that Plan B was not supported, Boehner expects Obama and Reid put forward a proposal. The President expressed hope for a quick bipartisan solution to this problem, but the chances of reaching agreement early becoming less.
GfK Group study showed that the decline in consumer sentiment in Germany, seems to have continued in 2013, and is expected to decline in the indicator to a 13-month low in January. The indicator fell from 6.0 in November to 5.8 in December (revised from 5.9). Component of economic expectations fell by 3.3 pips. after three months of growth before. "Consumers expect that the German economy will survive the difficult times in the coming months," according to the research company.
The British pound is reduced after the block statistics. GDP grew by 0.9% compared to Q2. to 1% in the previous assessment, as shown by the Office of Statistics. Consumer spending rose by 0.4% against 0.6% previously, and savings ratio peaked in 3 years. The UK economy grew less than expected, in Q3. The reason - as strong growth in services, trade and consumer spending.
In Q3 current account balance Britain reflected a surplus of £ 12.800 billion against the deficit of £ 17.433 billion in Q2. and forecasts for the level - £ 14.000 billion
In the 3rd quarter the volume of business investment in the UK rose by 5.1% y / y vs. 3.1% in the previous quarter. Figure for the quarter reflected the rise of 3.8% compared with 3.7% in the previous 3 months, and forecasts of 3.5%.
The index of activity in the service of Great Britain in October reflected the rise of 1.1% compared to 1.3% in October, which was in line with forecasts.
EUR / USD: during the European session, the pair rose to $ 1.3228
GBP / USD: during the European session the pair fell to the low of $ 1.6233
USD / JPY: during the European session, the pair rose to Y84.28
EUR/USD
Offers $1.3295/310, $1.3240/50
Bids $1.3150/40, $1.3125/15, $1.3100, $1.3085/80
GBP/USD
Offers $1.6400, $1.6380, $1.6330-50, $1.6310
Bids $1.6235/30, $1.6220, $1.6195/90, $1.6155/50
AUD/USD
Offers $1.0575, $1.0555/60, $1.0510, $1.0500, $1.0480/90
Bids $1.0400, $1.0380, $1.0350
EUR/JPY
Offers Y113.00, Y112.50, Y112.00, Y111.50
Bids Y110.50, Y110.00, Y109.50
USD/JPY
Offers Y85.50, Y85.00, Y84.75/80, Y84.45/40
Bids Y83.20, Y83.00
EUR/GBP
Offers stg0.8280, stg0.8220 , stg0.8195/200, stg0.8170
Bids stg0.8115/10, stg0.8095/90, stg0.8080, stg0.8065/60
European stocks fell the most in five weeks after American House Republicans canceled a vote on higher taxes for top earners, fueling concern budget talks will fail.
U.S. House Speaker John Boehner, a Republican, scrapped a plan to allow higher tax rates on annual incomes above $1 million, yielding to resistance from party colleagues. Talks between Boehner and President Barack Obama are already stalled with 10 days to go before the year-end deadline for a budget compromise.
Aeroports de Paris slumped 6.4 percent to 57.99 euros, the biggest decline since August 2011, after cutting projections for earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization and for traffic growth.
ArcelorMittal dropped 3 percent to 12.81 euros. The world’s biggest steelmaker will write down the goodwill in its European businesses by about $4.3 billion as the region’s weakening economy erodes demand.
Eurasian Natural Resources Corp., a producer of ferro alloys and iron ore in Kazakhstan, slid 2.4 percent to 274.2 pence. The stock was cut to neutral from buy at Goldman Sachs Group Inc.
Vedanta Resources Plc dropped 2 percent to 1,132 pence. Shares of commodity companies were the worst performing group on the Stoxx 600.
FTSE 100 5,917.64 -40.70 -0.7 %
CAC 40 3,651.2 -15.53 -0.4 %
DAX 7,628.03 -44.07 -0.6 %
After falling below 1.3200 to a low of 1.3179 pair EUR/USD for some time maintained at the level of the mark, and then rushed to the maximum in the 1.3228.
At the moment, prices are still kept below this level in the 1.3210 area. Meanwhile, Commissioner Rehn said that a more active policy to reduce the cost in France is not required, while the reform of the pension system still needs to happen. Portuguese Prime Minister told Parliament that Europe in 2012, has been successful. We also learned that the Italian consumer confidence in December rose to 85.7 against 84.8 in November and 85.1 in the forecasts.
After the publication of the mixed data from the British pair GBP / USD hit 1.6259, recovering from a low of 1.6243. Q3 GDP grew by only 0.9% q / q and 0% y / y vs. 1.0% in / -0.1%.
EUR/USD $1.3100, $1.3180, $1.3200, $1.3250, $1.3300, $1.3320
USD/JPY Y83.75, Y84.00, Y84.20, Y84.50, Y84.60, Y85.00
GBP/USD $1.6200, $1.6195
EUR/GBP stg0.8200
AUD/USD $1.0400, $1.0500, $1.0600
NZD/USD $0.8375
Asian stocks fell, with the regional benchmark index heading for the first two-day loss in five weeks, after U.S. House Republican leaders canceled a planned vote that would permit higher taxes amid stalled budget talks.
Nikkei 225 9,940.06 -99.27 -0.99%
S&P/ASX 200 4,623.58 -10.53 -0.23%
Shanghai Composite 2,153.31 -15.04 -0.69%
Techtronic Industries Co., a maker of power tools that gets 72 percent of its sales in North America, dropped 1.7 percent in Hong Kong.
Samsung Electronics Co. dropped 4.1 percent in Seoul after the European Union said its preparing an antitrust complaint against the maker of TVs and smartphones.
Mitsubishi Estate Co. rose 2.9 percent, pacing gains among Japanese realtors, on a report the Bank of Japan may reconsider its objectives for inflation.
In yesterday's trading yen close to a nearly 20-month low against the dollar after the Bank of Japan announced an increase in the program of monetary stimulus by 10 trillion yen ($ 119 billion) to 76 trillion yen., But kept its inflation target at 1%.
Japan's currency fell against all major currencies this month, as the newly elected Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe urged the Bank of Japan to double the threshold of inflation. The single currency is close to eight-month high against the dollar, due to the growth of the regional consumer confidence with three-and-a-half year low. But in spite of this, the U.S. currency still managed to regain most of the lost ground, what happened after the release of data from the U.S. Department of Commerce, which showed that the economy in the third quarter grew by 3.1%, compared with a preliminary estimate for level of 2.7%. Most analysts believe that growth will accelerate to 2.8% only.
At the same time, U.S. lawmakers continue to try to reach an agreement to prevent more than $ 600 billion in tax increases and spending cuts, due to start in January. While Republicans are trying to overcome their internal gaps related to taxes, by combining spending cuts, the White House said that the proposal is not acceptable, and therefore it can be seen that the negotiations between President Barack Obama and Boehner regress.
Most Asian stocks fell, with the regional benchmark index dropping from a 16-month high amid concern U.S. budget negotiations are faltering and as a surging yen weighed on Japanese stocks. The Bank of Japan boosted its asset purchase program for the third time in four months.
Nikkei 225 10,039.33 -121.07 -1.19%
S&P/ASX 200 4,634.11 +16.33 +0.35%
Shanghai Composite 2,168.35 +6.11 +0.28%
Samsung Electronics Co., which gets a fifth of its revenue in America, dropped 0.8 percent in Seoul.
Canon Inc., a camera maker that gets 80 percent of its sales outside Japan, dropped 2.9 percent.
Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group Inc., Japan’s biggest lender, advanced 1.2 percent.
Nissan Motor Co. slumped 7.4 percent after Nomura Holdings Inc. cut its rating on the stock.
European stocks were little changed near a 19-month high as investors awaited developments in U.S. negotiations to avoid the so-called fiscal cliff of automatic tax increases and spending cuts.
The Stoxx Europe 600 Index (SXXP) increased less than 0.1 percent to 281.83 at 4:38 p.m. in London, having swung between gains and losses at least 20 times today.
National benchmark indexes rose in 12 of the 18 western European markets.
FTSE 100 5,958.34 -3.25 -0.05% CAC 40 3,666.73 +2.14 +0.06% DAX 7,672.1 +3.60 +0.05%
The U.S. economy grew at a 3.1 percent annual rate in the third quarter, more than previously reported, reflecting the first gain in state and local government spending in three years, more consumer purchases and a smaller trade gap, according to a report today.
SBM Offshore climbed 18 percent to 10.88 euros, the biggest jump since at least October 1989, as the world’s largest maker of floating oil and gas output platforms sought to settle a dispute with Talisman and wrote off the value of a related operation. The company will sell a 9.95 percent stake to HAL Investments BV for $193 million to restore its balance sheet and meet banking covenants.
UBS (UBSN) slipped 1.3 percent to 15.01 Swiss francs. The Hong Kong Monetary Authority has started an investigation to see if there was wrongdoing by the bank in its submission of data for setting the Hong Kong Interbank Offered Rate, according to a statement from the de-facto central bank.
Cap Gemini SA (CAP), a French computer-services company, slid 2.8 percent to 33.53 euros. Accenture Plc, the world’s second- largest technology-consulting company, reported a decline in first-quarter revenue from its consulting business.
Areva SA (AREVA) lost 4.3 percent to 12.84 euros. The maker of nuclear reactors, offshore wind turbines and biomass plants cut its earnings forecast for 2013, citing financing delays at unspecified renewable energy projects carried out by clients.
Immofinanz AG (IIA) slid 4.6 percent to 3.26 euros. The Austrian real-estate company said first-half net income declined to 103.3 million euros from 265.1 million euros a year ago.
Carnival Corp. (CCL), the world’s largest cruise-line operator, tumbled 6.5 percent to 2,380 pence for the worst performance on the Stoxx 600. The company said it sees 2013 adjusted earnings per share in the range of $2.20 to $2.40, lower than the estimate of $2.46.
Despite the mixed results of trades during the session, the major U.S. stock indexes could still closing up above zero
Increase in GDP growth, growth in the number of house sales in the secondary market and increased negotiating "budget cliff" were the reason for lack of a trend in major stock markets in the U.S. sites during the day.
Today, representatives of the U.S. Republican Party going through Congress proposed House of Representatives Speaker John Boehner a "plan B", which among other things provides for a tax increase for people with incomes over $ 1 million a year.
Yesterday, representatives of Barack Obama said that if Congress still adopt the law, the president would veto it.
White House officials said on the eve of the deterioration of the negotiations between Obama and Boehner.
DOW index components show a positive trend mainly (24 of 30). Below are the remaining shares Merck & Co. Inc. (MRK, -3.54%), which provides the pressure on the premises of their credit rating in the list for review. The leader at the moment are the shares Bank of America (BAC, +2.77%).
All sectors of the S & P show a positive trend. Leading financial sector (+0.8%). The lowest growth demonstrates the health sector (+0.1%)
At the close:
Dow +59.75 13,311.72 +0.45%
Nasdaq +6.03 3,050.39 +0.20%
S & P +7.88 1,443.69 +0.55%
00:01 United Kingdom Gfk Consumer Confidence December -22 -26 -29
05:00 Japan BoJ monthly economic report December
The euro pared a weekly gain versus the greenback after House Republican leaders canceled a scheduled vote on Speaker John Boehner’s plan to allow higher tax rates for annual incomes above $1 million. Boehner, an Ohio Republican, said in a statement his tax measure “did not have sufficient support from our members to pass.” A House leadership announcement said the chamber will hold no more votes until after the Christmas holiday and will return “when needed.”
The 14-day relative strength index for the dollar against the euro was at 35 today, rising above 30 for the first since since Dec. 17, the level at which some investors view as an indication an asset may have fallen too far too quickly and is set to reverse direction.
The Australian and New Zealand dollars dropped as Asian shares and U.S. stock futures declined.
EUR/USD: during the Asian session the pair fell to $1.3180.
GBP/USD: during the Asian session the pair fell at yesterday's low of $1.6240.
USD/JPY: during the Asian session the pair fell at yesterday's low of Y83.85.
European data for Friday starts at 0700GMT with construction orders and import prices data from Germany, followed at 0710GMT by German GfK consumer confidence data. UK data is all due at 0930GMT. The Public Sector Finances data is expected to see PSNB grow to 14.5 billion, while PSNB-X grows to 16.4 billion. US: data starts at 1330GMT with Durable Goods and Personal Income, Expenditures. This is followed at 1455GMT by the University of Michigan Sentiment Index, which is expected to be revised up to75.0 in December, still well below the 82.7 reading in November.
Change % Change Last
Oil $89.98 -0.15 -0.17%
Gold $1,647.80 +1.90 +0.12%
Change % Change Last
Nikkei 225 10,039.33 -121.07 -1.19%
S&P/ASX 200 4,634.11 +16.33 +0.35%
Shanghai Composite 2,168.35 +6.11 +0.28%
FTSE 100 5,958.34 -3.25 -0.05%
CAC 40 3,666.73 +2.14 +0.06%
DAX 7,672.1 +3.60 +0.05%
Dow +59.75 13,311.72 +0.45%Nasdaq +6.03 3,050.39 +0.20%
S&P +7.88 1,443.69 +0.55%
(pare/closed(00:00 GMT +02:00)/change, %)
EUR/USD $1,3243 +0,14%
GBP/USD $1,6277 +0,20%
USD/CHF Chf0,9114 -0,20%
USD/JPY Y84,37 -0,02%
EUR/JPY Y111,74 +0,11%
GBP/JPY Y137,32 +0,15%
AUD/USD $1,0481 +0,01%
NZD/USD $0,8337 -0,04%
USD/CAD C$0,9875 -0,12%00:01 United Kingdom Gfk Consumer Confidence December -22 -26 -29
05:00 Japan BoJ monthly economic report December
07:00 Germany Gfk Consumer Confidence Survey January 5.9 5.9
09:30 United Kingdom Current account, bln Quarter III -20.8 -13.7
09:30 United Kingdom PSNB, bln November 6.5 14.8
09:30 United Kingdom GDP, q/q (finally) Quarter III +1.0% +1.0%
09:30 United Kingdom GDP, y/y (finally) Quarter III -0.1% -0.1%
13:30 Canada Consumer Price Index m / m November +0.2% -0.1%
13:30 Canada Consumer price index, y/y November +1.2% +1.0%
13:30 Canada Bank of Canada Consumer Price Index Core, m/m November +0.3% +0.1%
13:30 Canada Bank of Canada Consumer Price Index Core, y/y November +1.3% +1.3%
13:30 Canada GDP (m/m) October 0.0% +0.1%
13:30 U.S. Durable Goods Orders November 0.0% +0.9%
13:30 U.S. Durable Goods Orders ex Transportation November +1.5% -0.1%
13:30 U.S. Durable goods orders ex defense November +1.7% -1.1%
13:30 U.S. Personal Income, m/m November 0.0% +0.4%
13:30 U.S. Personal spending November -0.2% +0.5%
13:30 U.S. PCE price index ex food, energy, m/m November +0.1% -0.1%
13:30 U.S. PCE price index ex food, energy, Y/Y November +1.7% +1.6%
14:55 U.S. Reuters/Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (finally) December 74.5 75.2
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