CFD Markets News and Forecasts — 27-12-2012

The dollar erased losses against the euro after Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid said the U.S. may fall off the so-called fiscal cliff of tax increases and spending cuts that may tip the nation into recession. Reid said a resolution to the U.S. budget dispute before Jan. 1 appears unlikely because Republicans won’t cooperate.

President Barack Obama and U.S. Congress return to Washington to resume negotiations over the fiscal cliff of more than $600 billion in automatic tax increases and spending cuts set to take effect next month. Treasury Secretary Timothy F. Geithner said there’s “significant uncertainty” around tax and spending policies, according to a letter sent to congressional leaders yesterday.

The 17-nation euro climbed to an almost eight-month high earlier today after French consumer confidence unexpectedly improved and Italian business sentiment increased.

An index of French household sentiment rose to 86 in December from 84 in November, the first monthly increase since May, the national statistics office Insee said. Economists forecast an unchanged reading of 84. A gauge of Italian business climbed to 88.9 from 88.5, according to Rome-based national statistics institute Istat.

The yen reached a 28-month low against the dollar as John Taylor, founder and chairman of New York-based currency hedge fund FX Concepts LLC, said Japan’s currency may weaken to 90 per dollar for the first time since June 2010. The yen slumped after Prime Minister Shinzo Abe was approved as prime minister yesterday by parliament. His Liberal Democratic party won a landslide victory in lower house elections on Dec. 16, pledging to weaken the currency.

European stocks were little changed as U.S. jobless-benefit claims dropped and home sales climbed to a two-year high, offsetting Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid’s comments that a budget deal is unlikely.

President Barack Obama is pressing for U.S. lawmakers to craft an interim deal to avert more than $600 billion in tax increases and spending cuts, known as the fiscal cliff. Republican House leaders hold a conference call with their rank- and-file members today to discuss the path forward, according to a leadership aide who asked for anonymity.

A Labor Department report showed fewer Americans than forecast filed claims for unemployment insurance last week. Applications for jobless benefits decreased by 12,000 to 350,000 in the week ended Dec. 22. Economists forecast 360,000.

National benchmark indexes climbed in 13 of the 18 western European markets. France’s CAC 40 (CAC) rallied 0.6 percent, Germany’s DAX advanced 0.3 percent and the U.K.’s benchmark FTSE 100 was little changed.

Clariant rose 3 percent to 12.20 Swiss francs after selling units for 502 million francs ($550 million). The specialty chemicals maker said it will get approximately 460 million francs in cash for selling the textile chemicals, paper specialties and emulsions businesses to SK Capital Partners, a U.S. buyout company.

Bayerische Motoren Werke AG (BMW) gained 1.1 percent to 73.46 euros. Chief Financial Officer Friedrich Eichiner said he is confident the carmaker has surpassed its 2011 profit total, according to a report by Die Welt.

A gauge of mining shares on the Stoxx 600 advanced 0.7 percent. Rio Tinto Group and BHP Billiton Ltd. (BHP) rose 0.9 percent to 3,541.5 pence and 0.8 percent to 2,156.5 pence, respectively.

The Central Bank of Greece estimates the capital requirement of 40.5 billion euros

Gold futures rebounded after U.S. Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid said that the budget dispute probably won’t be resolved before Jan. 1, boosting demand for the metal as a haven.

Republicans won’t cooperate, said Reid, a Nevada Democrat. The impasse leaves the U.S. closer to more than $600 billion in automatic tax increases and spending cuts set to begin in 2013. Earlier, gold fell as much as 0.5 percent.

Gold futures for February delivery gained to $1,666.10 an ounce on the Comex in New York. Through yesterday, the metal gained 6 percent this year, heading for a 12th straight annual increase, as central banks from the U.S. to China announced stimulus measures to bolster their economies.

Crude fluctuated after rising to the highest level in more than two months as Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid said lawmakers and President Barack Obama are unlikely to reach a deal to avert a fiscal crisis.

Prices erased gains amid few signs of an agreement to prevent $600 billion in automatic U.S. tax increases and spending cuts set to begin Jan. 1, known collectively as the fiscal cliff. Earlier, futures advanced as jobless claims fell.

Crude oil for February delivery slipped $90.51 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange after rising to $91.44, the highest intraday level since Oct. 19. Trading volume for West Texas Intermediate futures contracts was down 43 percent from the 100-day average.

Brent oil for February settlement slid 60 cents, or 0.5 percent, to $110.47 a barrel on the London-based ICE Futures Europe. The number of contracts trading was 54 percent lower than the 100-day average. The European benchmark crude was at a premium of $19.65 to WTI.

The EUR / USD updated intraday low 1.3209 after the release of U.S. data. Consumer confidence in the U.S. fell to 65.1/70.3, and new home sales - up to 0.377 million /0.378 mln.

At the moment the pair retreated from the low and trading in the 1.3220

U.S. stock futures advanced as lawmakers return to Washington to resume budget talks and data showed jobless claims decreased.
Global Stocks:
Nikkei  10,322.98+92.62 +0.91%
Hang Seng 22,619.78+78.60 +0.35%
Shanghai Composite 2,205.9-13.23 -0.60%
FTSE 5,983.76+29.58 +0.50%
CAC 3,681.25+28.64 +0.78%
DAX 7,669.23+33.00 +0.43%
Crude oil $91.32 +0.37%
Gold $1656.40 -0.26%

EUR/USD $1.3200

USD/JPY Y84.00

Data

05:00Japan Annualized Housing Starts, blnNovember 0.9780.9110.907

07:00Switzerland UBS Consumption IndicatorNovember 1.3 1.23

09:30United Kingdom BBA Mortgage ApprovalsNovember 33.1 34.633.6

In today's trading the euro rose against the dollar significantly, approaching with up to an eight-month high, which was caused by the publication of data on consumer confidence in France. National Statistics Office Insee said that confidence unexpectedly improved this month, reaching a level 86, up from 84 in November, showing with the first monthly increase since May, and increased the demand for assets in the region. Many economists expect that the value of the indicator is unchanged. Strengthening of the single currency was also supported by the release of a report on business confidence in Italy, which has also increased during December to reach 88.9 to 88.5.

The yen weakened against all 16 major currencies in anticipation of tomorrow's report, which is forecast to show that Japanese consumer prices fell. Against this background, increased speculation that Prime Minister Abe will require the central bank to increase the incentive program.

The dollar index, which is used to track the value of the dollar against the currencies of six U.S. partner, fell 0.3% to 79.41.

Value of the pound was higher against the U.S. dollar, registering with the third day rise in a row, after a report showed that the number of approved applications for mortgages to purchase homes in the UK rose last month to the level of 33,634 to 33,128 in oktyabrk, showing the highest value January. Also today, sterling rose to its highest level against the yen since April last year, which was caused by rumors that the Bank of Japan will step up stimulus measures to support growth.

EUR / USD: during the European session, the pair fell to $ 1.3280

GBP / USD: during the European session, the pair rose to $ 1.6202, but then fell to $ 1.6155

USD / JPY: during the European session the pair fell to Y85.58, then recovered to Y85.81

At 13:30 GMT the United States will present data on initial applications for unemployment benefits. At 15:00 GMT the U.S. will know about the number of sales in the primary market in November, and the index of consumer confidence for December. At 23:30 GMT, Japan will report on the unemployment rate, the consumer price index for the whole country and the core consumer price index for the whole country in November. Also during this time will be submitted to the consumer price index in the Tokyo core CPI for Tokyo in December, as well as data on retail sales and industrial production for November.

EUR/USD

Orders $1.3295/310, $1.3280

Bids $1.3225/15, $1.3185/80, $1.3170

GBP/USD

Orders $1.6330-50, $1.6310, $1.6285/300, $1.6260, $1.6225/35, $1.6200/10

Bids $1.6125/20, $1.6100, $1.6085/75, $1.6050, $1.6010/00

AUD/USD

Ordersу $1.0530/35, $1.0510, $1.0500, $1.0480, $1.0450/55, $1.0420/25, $1.0400

Bids $1.0335/30, $1.0310/00, $1.0240/30

EUR/JPY

Orders Y115.00, Y114.50, Y114.20, Y114.00

Bids Y113.50/40, Y113.10/00, Y112.70/50, Y112.00, Y111.60/50

USD/JPY

Orders Y86.50, Y86.20/25, Y85.85/6.00

Bids Y85.30, Y85.10/00, Y84.85/80

EUR/GBP

Orders stg0.8280, stg0.8245/50, stg0.8220

Bids stg0.8170/65, stg0.8150, stg0.8125/20, stg0.8115/10, stg0.8095/90

European stock indices show growth. Positive impact on investors has hoped that the issue of threats to the "fiscal cliff" can be resolved in the coming days. Since U.S. President Barack Obama interrupted his Christmas vacation to try to reach an agreement with Congress. Timothy Geithner at the request of a default is to be announced on December 31, the U.S. will run out of credit limit, previously approved by Congress, with the result that Washington will have to default on its financial obligations. However, as the U.S. Treasury said: "You can stay afloat until March."

Clariant stock value surged by 3%, after it became known that the Swiss himkontsern sold a number of its units SK Capital investment fund for 502 million francs ($ 550 million).

Vivendi securities rose by 1%. South Korean wireless carrier has filed a preliminary application to the French media conglomerate owned a stake in the Moroccan company Maroc Telecom SA.

To date:

FTSE 100 5,966.79 +12.61 +0.21%

DAX 7,655.94 +19.71 +0.26%

CAC 3,672.60 +20.69 +0.55%

EUR/USD $1.3200

USD/JPY Y84.00

AUD/USD $1.0400

Asian stocks rose, with the regional benchmark index headed for a second month of advance, as the yen touched a 27-month low on prospects for more stimulus and China’s industrial companies’ profit gained.

Nikkei 225 10,322.98 +92.62 +0.91%

S&P/ASX 200 4,647.96 +12.77 +0.28%

Shanghai Composite 2,205.9 -13.23 -0.60%

Mazda Motor Corp., an automaker that gets 28 percent of its sales in North America, advanced 7.1 percent in Tokyo as newly installed premier said “bold’ monetary policy is one of the three pillars of his economic measures.

Guangzhou R&F Properties Ltd., a builder in the southern Chinese city, rose 0.8 percent in Hong Kong, whose equity market reopened after a two-day holiday.

SK Telecom Co., the mobile telephone carrier among 119 companies trading without rights to year-end dividends on South Korea’s benchmark index, dropped 4.1 percent.

Yesterday the yen fell against the dollar to the lowest level since September 2010 as Japan’s Prime Minister Shinzo Abe said he would push for “bold monetary easing.”

Abe said in a speech in Tokyo he would carry out a flexible fiscal policy. Taro Aso was named finance chief today. During his 12 months as prime minister through September 2009, the one-time Olympian compiled three extra budgets worth about 20 trillion yen, abandoned a target to balance the budget by March 2012 and distributed a 12,000 yen-per-person cash handout.

The Japanese currency slid versus all its major peers as minutes of the Bank of Japan’s November meeting showed that a board member suggested conducting open-ended asset purchases.

An unnamed BOJ board member said that an option would be to “clearly present” in a policy statement that the central bank would continue monetary easing, including asset purchases, “without setting any time frame” until 1 percent inflation is achieved, the minutes showed. The BOJ’s 76 trillion-yen ($890 billion) program that buys securities ranging from government bonds to stock funds will expire at the end of next year.

The Dollar Index fell as investors waited for U.S. Congress and President Barack Obama to resume talks on averting the so-called fiscal cliff.

Obama plans to leave his Hawaii vacation today and return to Washington, a White House aide said on condition of anonymity. Congress will resume negotiations tomorrow about more than $600 billion in tax increases and spending cuts due to take effect next month.

Markets in Canada, Australia and the U.K. were shut for a holiday.

Asian stocks rose, with the regional benchmark index trading less than 1 percent from its highest close for the year, as the yen dropped and Shinzo Abe was approved as Japan’s prime minister after promising to promote more stimulus measures.

Nikkei 225 10,230.36 +150.24 +1.49%

S&P/ASX 200 Closed

Shanghai Composite 2,219.13 +5.52 +0.25%

Nissan Motor Co. , a carmaker that derives almost 80 percent of sales overseas, gained 2.1 percent in Tokyo.

Hitachi Ltd. rose 2.1 percent after its president said the company plans to double its operating margin.

Tradewinds (Malaysia) Bhd., a palm oil and rice producer, jumped 15 percent in Kuala Lumpur after receiving a takeover offer.

European stock markets are closed for the holidays

After Christmas, the index began trading growth, but there remain uncertainties associated with the solution of the "fiscal cliff" returned indices into negative territory.

As reported earlier, President Barack Obama has cut its output due to the need for a possible quick solution to the impending problem. Before Christmas, Obama called the leaders of both parties to take a temporary bill that would allow time for the development and coordination of a comprehensive solution.

External background for the U.S. session was formed in generally favorable - European stock markets mostly continue to rest on the occasion of Christmas, and the Asian indices strengthened on the news of the formation of the new government of Japan. As prime minister was approved by the 58-year-old leader of the Liberal Democratic Party, Shinzo Abe, who a few years ago, a seat he held the prime minister. Abe vowed not to spend a second chance and nothing to pull the economy out of the protracted crisis.

DOW index components were mixed. Below are the remaining shares Unitedhealth Group (UNH, -1.15%). Leader was Bank of America (BAC, +2.58%).

Among the sectors S & P showed only minimal growth of the basic materials sector (+0.02%). Maximum loss incurred service sector (-0.9%).

Oilfield services company Weatherford International advanced 2.8% on news that two top managers purchased 30 000 of its shares.

At the close:

Dow 13,114.59 -24.49 -0.19%

Nasdaq 2,990.16 -22.44 -0.74%

05:00 Japan Annualized Housing Starts, blnNovember 0.9780.9110.907

The yen slid to a 16-month low against the euro before data tomorrow that may show a decline in Japan’s consumer prices, fanning speculation Prime Minister Shinzo Abe will push the central bank to boost cash infusions. Government data may show tomorrow that Japan’s consumer prices excluding fresh food fell 0.1 percent in November from a year earlier, according to the median estimate of economists surveyed by Bloomberg News. That compares with the Bank of Japan’s target of 1 percent inflation.

The currency touched the lowest since September 2010 versus the dollar after Abe said in a media briefing yesterday that “bold’ monetary policy is one of the three pillars of his economic measures.

President Barack Obama and U.S. Congress return to Washington today to continue negotiations over the so-called fiscal cliff, or more than $600 billion in automatic tax increases and spending cuts that take effect next month. Treasury Secretary Timothy F. Geithner said there’s ‘‘significant uncertainty” around tax and spending policies, according to a letter he sent to congressional leaders yesterday.

The Philippine peso slid to a five-week low after the government intensified efforts to contain a surging currency.

EUR/USD: during the Asian session, the pair rose to $ 1.3245.

GBP/USD: during the Asian session, the pair traded in the range of $ 1.6120-45.

USD/JPY: during the Asian session, the pair rose to Y85.85.

UK data at 0930GMT sees BBA Lending Data, including Mortgage Approvals. US data starts at 1330GMT when the level of initial jobless claims is expected to rise 4,000 to 365,000 in the December 22 pre-Christmas week. Also at 1500GMT, the Conference Board's index of

Change % Change Last

Oil$91.14+0.16+0.18%

Gold$1,660.50-0.20-0.01%

Change % Change Last

Nikkei 225 Closed

S&P/ASX 200 4,635.19 +11.61 +0.25%

Shanghai Composite 2,159.05 +5.74 +0.27%

FTSE 100 5,939.99 -18.35 -0.31%

FTSE Closed

CAC 40 Closed

DAX Closed

Dow13,114.59-24.49-0.19%

Nasdaq2,990.16-22.44-0.74%

S&P 5001,419.83-6.83-0.48%

(pare/closed(00:00 GMT +02:00)/change, %)

EUR/USD$1,3222 +0,08%

GBP/USD $1,6136 -0,30%

USD/CHF Chf0,9131 -0,07%

USD/JPY Y85,61 +1,39%

EUR/JPY Y113,19 +1,47%

GBP/JPY Y138,13 +1,09%

AUD/USD $1,0374 -0,25%

NZD/USD $0,8194 -0,40%

USD/CAD C$0,9941 +0,12%

05:00 Japan Annualized Housing Starts, blnNovember 0.9780.911

07:00 United Kingdom Nationwide house price indexDecember 0.0%+0.1%

07:00 United Kingdom Nationwide house price index, y/yDecember -1.2%

07:00 Switzerland UBS Consumption IndicatorNovember 1.31

09:30 United Kingdom BBA Mortgage ApprovalsNovember 33.034.6

13:30 U.S. Initial Jobless Claims- 361365

15:00 U.S. Consumer confidenceDecember 73.770.3

15:00 U.S. New Home SalesNovember 368382

23:15 Japan Manufacturing PMIDecember 46.5

23:30 Japan Household spending Y/YNovember -0.1%+0.8%

23:30 Japan National Consumer Price Index, y/yNovember -0.4%+0.2%

23:30 Japan National CPI Ex-Fresh Food, y/yNovember 0.0%-0.1%

23:30 Japan Tokyo Consumer Price Index, y/yDecember -0.5%-0.6%

23:30 Japan Tokyo CPI ex Fresh Food, y/yDecember -0.5%-0.5%

23:30 Japan Unemployment RateNovember 4.2%4.2%

23:50 Japan Industrial Production (MoM) (preliminary)November +1.6%-0.5%

23:50 Japan Industrial Production (YoY)(preliminary)November -4.5%-4.6%

23:50 Japan Retail sales, y/yNovember -1.2%+1.2%