CFD Markets News and Forecasts — 31-12-2012

Futures rose.  That means the cash market is on course for a higher start.
Today is the fiscal cliff deadline and there is still no deal. Negotiations continue. An eleventh-hour deal remains possible, but clearly, there won't be any grand bargain announced today.

Global Stocks:

Hang Seng 22,656.92-9.67 -0.04%
Shanghai Composite 2,269.13+35.88 
FTSE  5,897.81-27.56 -0.47%
CAC  3,641.07+20.82 +0.58%
Crude oil $90.41 -0.43%
Gold  $1662.10 +0.37%

The U.S. dollar strengthened against the major currencies, as the threat of "fiscal cliff" in the U.S. is still a serious problem, and the Senate will hold a meeting today at 16:00 GMT. In the case of an agreement, the vote could take place, but chances are that the House will oppose, are quite high.

The euro fell against the dollar in thin trading on the background of statements by German Chancellor Merkel that the European crisis is far from over. Merkel predicts that 2013 will be another difficult year for the region's debt crisis "is far from over." We must have the will to act and everyone should be provided with social protection. The European sovereign crisis has shown how important this balance. The reforms we have started, are beginning to bear fruit. However, we need to be patient. The crisis is far from over. " Also worth noting is that Citigroup has lowered the probability that Greece will leave the euro zone in the next 18-24 months and 60%.

EUR / USD: during the European session, the pair fell to $ 1.3171

GBP / USD: during the European session the pair fell to $ 1.6133, but then recovered, setting all new session high of $ 1.6185.

USD / JPY: during the European session, the pair is trading in the range of Y85.94 - Y86.19

EUR/USD

Offers $1.3295/310, $1.3280/85, $1.3235/40

Bids  $1.3160/50, $1.3125/15, $1.3100, $1.3085/80

GBP/USD

Offers  $1.6285/300, $1.6260, $1.6200/10, $1.6175/80

Bids $1.6120, $1.6100,$1.6085/75, $1.6050, $1.6010/00

AUD/USD

Offers $1.0510, $1.0500, $1.0480, $1.0450/55, $1.0420/30

Bids $1.0335/30, $1.0310/00, $1.0250, $1.0240/30

EUR/JPY

Offers Y115.00,Y114.80/85, Y114.15/20, Y114.00

Bids Y113.10/00, Y112.70/65, Y112.50, Y112.00, Y111.60/50

USD/JPY

Offers Y87.50, Y87.20/25, Y86.80/85, Y86.30/35

Bids Y85.60/50, Y85.30/25, Y85.10/00,Y84.85/80, Y84.50

EUR/GBP

Offers stg0.8280, stg0.8245/50, stg0.8200/05

Bids  stg0.8150, stg0.8125/20, stg0.8115/10, stg0.8100, stg0.8095/90

AUD / USD has lost the 1.0400 level, weak a session high 1.0411 reached in the morning in Asia.

In the last hour of the AUD / USD intraday low 1.0365 updated and returned to the opening price. At the moment the exchange rate is trading at 1.0370.

USD / CAD has offset more than half of the November-December decline from a maximum to a minimum 1.0057 0.9825. Last Friday, the pair failed to return to the level of parity, and it closed at 0.9970.

Most European stocks fell amid concern U.S. lawmakers won’t reach a budget deal in time to prevent automatic tax increases and spending cuts from coming into effect tomorrow. U.S. index futures signaled a lower opening for equities and Asian shares were little changed.

Nine of the 18 western European markets including Germany and Switzerland were closed. The U.K. market will close at 12:30 p.m., while France, Belgium, Spain and the Netherlands will close by about 1 p.m.

The U.S. Senate will convene at 11 a.m. Washington time today to discuss measures to avert more than $600 billion in automatic tax increases and spending cuts, also called the fiscal cliff.

Private talks between Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid and Minority Leader Mitch McConnell that began Dec. 28 stalled yesterday because of disputes over income tax rates, the estate tax and other issues.

In Europe, German Chancellor Angela Merkel said the economic environment will be more difficult in 2013 compared with this year.

China’s manufacturing unexpectedly expanded at the fastest pace in 19 months, a report showed today. The final reading of a Purchasing Managers’ Index was 51.5 in December, according to a statement from HSBC Holdings Plc and Markit Economics. That compares with the 50.9 preliminary reading on Dec. 14 and a final 50.5 in November. A level above 50 indicates expansion.

Iberdrola retreated 1.1 percent to 4.09 euros after Bolivian President Evo Morales ordered the nationalization of four of its business units. The country’s army and police seized buildings occupied by the company.

Bankia advanced 5 percent to 42.4 euro cents for the biggest gain on the Stoxx 600. The lender plunged 41 percent in the two days through Dec. 28, reaching its lowest price ever, after Spain said Bankia has a negative value of 4.15 billion euros ($5.5 billion).

Hit a low at 1.3175, today in Europe, EUR / USD continues to trade below the psychological mark of 1.32.

According to the CFTC, the number of net short positions on the EUR continues to decline.

Today's rally was limited to a maximum of 86.18, and since then, USD / JPY is trading between the aforementioned level and mark 86.00. The market is thin trading in the absence of economic events. Japanese markets are closed for a bank holiday, while in the U.S. scheduled release of data on industrial activity in the area of ​​the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.

This year, the USD / JPY made ​​a sharp rebound from historic lows reached in late 2011. After Abe led government, USD / JPY updated yearly highs at 86.64.

Most Asian stocks declined, paring this year’s advance, with a deadline looming for the U.S. Congress to reach a budget agreement to avert automatic tax increases and spending cuts.

Nikkei 225 Closed

S&P/ASX 200 4,648.95 -22.35 -0.48%

Shanghai Composite 2,269.13 +35.88 +1.61%

BHP Billiton Ltd.  and Rio Tinto Group, the world’s largest mining companies, led declines among companies with earnings closely tied to economic growth.

Fairfax Media Ltd. surged 7.4 percent, paring its slump in 2012, amid speculation billionaire Gina Rinehart and investor John Singleton may seek control of Australia’s second-largest newspaper publisher.

The dollar index touched a two-week high, while the bidders follow the last-ditch attempt to prevent U.S. lawmakers' fiscal cliff. "

The dollar index ICE, tracks the greenback against a basket of six other major currencies, rose to 79.680 against 79.622 in late everoamerikanskoy Thursday session.

The dollar began to show growth due to the fact that investors think about is whether the U.S. government to reach an agreement on the prevention of automatic tax increases and spending cuts to the tune of several billion dollars. Legislators have only a few days to complete the negotiations.

U.S. President Barack Obama has asked congressional leaders to come to the White House on Friday for talks with a view to reaching agreement on the prevention of tax increases and spending cuts next year.

The euro fell against most of its 16 major counterparts after data showed that producer prices in Italy in November decreased by 0.1% compared with October, the decline has been observed for the third consecutive month. At the same time, the data on GDP growth in France in the 3rd quarter were revised by the National Bureau of Statistics on Friday to 0.1% from 0.2% previously announced due to reduction in investment.

Japanese Yen recovered against the U.S. dollar and the euro in low trading volume on Friday after Japanese Finance Minister Taro Aso said that Japan is not seeking a sharp decline in its national currency.

According to Aso, the U.S. government should work hard to achieve a strengthening of the dollar, while Japan is not seeking "a radical weakening of the yen." Such statements helped the yen to recover some lost ground against the dollar and the euro during the European session.

Earlier, the Japanese currency reached a 28-month low against the dollar and a 17-month low against the euro. The Japanese currency fell against major currencies after data earlier on Friday who reported that industrial production in Japan in November decreased by 1.7% compared to the previous month. This report was worse than expected. Meanwhile, data on consumer prices indicated that the country is still suffering from deflation.

Asian stocks rose, with Japanese shares posting their biggest annual advance since 2005, after a report that the country’s consumer prices fell fanned speculation the central bank will respond to government calls for more asset purchases.

Nikkei 225 10,395.18 +72.20 +0.70%

S&P/ASX 200 4,671.3 +23.34 +0.50%

Shanghai Composite 2,233.25 +27.35 +1.24%

Canon Inc., the world’s biggest camera maker, increased 2.1 percent, leading gains among Japanese exporters.

Toshiba Corp. climbed 5 percent after the manufacturer said it’s in talks to sell a stake in its Westinghouse Electric atomic-power unit.

BHP Billiton Ltd., Australia’s largest oil producer, advanced 1.1 percent after crude and metal prices rose.

European stocks fell in the year’s last full week of trading, snapping a five-week rally, as the deadline neared for a U.S. lawmakers to agree a deal to halt $600 billion of automatic tax increases and spending cuts.

President Barack Obama is due to meet at 3 p.m. in Washington with House Speaker John Boehner and Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, who are Republicans, along with Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid and House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi, both Democrats. The president had been negotiating one- on-one with Boehner.

Obama returned early from his holiday in Hawaii yesterday as lawmakers disputed which party would be responsible for missing the deadline for a debt deal, a failure that could hurt the U.S. credit rating and cause an economic recession.

Confidence among U.S. consumers declined more than forecast in December as the budget debate soured Americans’ outlook for the economy. The Conference Board’s sentiment index fell to 65.1 from a revised 71.5 reading the prior month, figures from the New York-based private research group showed.

National benchmark indexes retreated in 16 of western Europe’s 18 markets this week. France’s CAC 40 dropped 1.1 percent and the U.K.’s FTSE 100 Index declined 0.3 percent. Germany’s DAX also slipped 0.3 percent, paring this year’s rally to 29 percent.

Bankia tumbled 40 percent for the biggest drop on the Stoxx 600 this week. Spain said the lender has a negative value of 4.15 billion euros in an exercise to determine how much of the rescued lender remains in shareholders’ hands. The stock will be excluded from the benchmark IBEX 35 as of Jan. 2.

Bankia group, including its parent, Banco Financiero y de Ahorros, is set to receive 18 billion euros of European funds, making it the largest recipient of the country’s bank bailout.

Banco Popular Espanol, Spain’s sixth-biggest bank, declined 7.3 percent.

Clariant (CLN) rose 4.3 percent after selling units for 502 million Swiss francs ($550 million). The specialty-chemicals maker said it will get about 460 million francs in cash for selling the textile chemicals, paper specialties and emulsions businesses to SK Capital Partners, a U.S. buyout company.

Porsche advanced 7.2 percent. The maker of the 911 sports car won an appeals court ruling in New York state dismissing a lawsuit by hedge funds that accused the German carmaker of concealing a plan to corner the market in Volkswagen AG shares.

Atari SA retreated 6.4 percent after the video-game maker said it sees a “significant” fiscal-year loss. Atari also forecast a second-half operating loss exceeding its deficit in the first half and said it’s looking at all additional means of raising or preserving cash.

Fears that the U.S. government will not be able to avoid the "budget cliff", kept the indices under pressure ahead of the meeting of politicians.

Before the year is just a few days, but politicians can not agree on key issues, and Timothy Geithner reminded the other day about debt ceiling problem. Reassuring statements of representatives of the Republican Andy Harris (Andy Harris) that "the term of January 1 somewhat arbitrary", and enacted laws may be applied retroactively.

Since the budget issue is now the focus, better statistics on the industry and the housing market have had little support to the market. So, today it became known that the U.S. industry has gained pace in December, and the index of pending home sales rose in November by 1.7% to 106.4 points, exceeding economists' forecasts.

All components of the index DOW dropped in price. Below are the shares remaining Hewlett-Packard (HPQ, -2.56%).

All sectors of the S & P is below the zero mark. Maximum loss suffered basic materials sector (-1.1%) and consumer goods (-1.1%).

Quotes pharmacist Omeros fell 8.9% after the company reported that in the late stages of testing an experimental drug did not show the desired results.

The world's biggest bookstore chain Barnes & Noble jumped 4.3% on news that the British publisher Pearson buys 5% stake units Barnes & Noble Nook for about $ 89.5 million

At the close:

Dow 12,938.11 -158.20 -1.21%

Nasdaq 2,960.31 -25.60 -0.86%

S & P 500 1,402.43 -15.67 -1.10%

00:00Japan Bank holiday-

00:30Australia Private Sector Credit, m/mNovember +0.1%+0.3%+0.4%

00:30Australia Private Sector Credit, y/yNovember +3.8%+3.7%+3.5%

01:45China HSBC Manufacturing PMI(finally)December 50.950.951.5

The yen is set to close out its biggest annual decline in seven years amid speculation the Bank of Japan  will increase cash provisions to stoke inflation, debasing the currency. BOJ Governor Masaaki Shirakawa said the central bank and the government must work together to end deflation, the Nikkei newspaper reported, citing him in an interview. The BOJ will hold its first 2013 policy meeting on Jan. 21-22 when it releases updates on its growth and consumer-price forecasts. Shirakawa said the BOJ will discuss details of an inflation target requested by newly installed Prime Minister Shinzo Abe at the meeting, according to the Nikkei newspaper.

Australia’s dollar climbed against most of its major counterparts after a private report showed manufacturing grew at the fastest pace in 19 months in China, the nation’s biggest trading partner. The final reading for a Chinese manufacturing gauge by HSBC Holdings Plc and Markit Economics showed the index was at 51.5 this month, the highest since May 2011 and above the reading of 50 that indicates expansion. China is Australia’s biggest trading partner.

Investors are weighing whether U.S. leaders can avert more than $600 billion in tax increases and spending cuts, known as the fiscal cliff that’s set to take effect next month. Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid said the chamber will resume work today and that he hopes the Senate will have further announcements even as there are still “significant differences” among the parties involved.

Japan’s financial markets are shut today for a national holiday and there’ll be no trade in major markets tomorrow.

EUR/USD: during the Asian session the pair fell to $1.3185.

GBP/USD: during the Asian session the pair fell to $1.6150.

USD/JPY: during the Asian session, the pair traded around Y86.00.

00:00Japan Bank holiday-

00:00Germany Bank holiday-

00:30Australia Private Sector Credit, m/mNovember +0.1%+0.3%+0.4%

00:30Australia Private Sector Credit, y/yNovember +3.8%+3.7%+3.5%

01:45China HSBC Manufacturing PMI(finally)December 50.950.951.5