CFD Markets News and Forecasts — 02-01-2013

Despite the sharp rise in the euro against the dollar in early trading today, the single currency could not hold its positions, and showed a significant decline, which was caused by the weakening of risk appetite. In this regard, the euro is now trading down against the U.S. dollar. Such dynamics are observed, despite the agreement on the "budget cliff" that propelled the growth higher-yielding currencies such as the Australian dollar. Note that this may mean a change in the dynamics of the pair EUR / USD, as the rise in the stock market to raise capital from Europe to the U.S., which is pushing the dollar to strengthen. Meanwhile, taking into account the fact that the production data released today were weak, uncertainty in Europe continues to remain, while the outlook for the United States have become more positive.

In addition, despite the strengthening of the pound to a 16-month high against the U.S. dollar, which was due to a significant increase in the index of business activity, and achieving them in December, the highest level in more than a year, the exchange rate has fallen sharply, as has also been associated with a reduction of positions in risky assets.

Meanwhile, all these factors have not been able to influence the proper value of the Japanese currency, which for the trading session, continues to trade in a narrow range. Note also that the current gap, which was seen at the opening of tenders was called the statement by the Prime Ministers of Japan Abe, who said that now the most important issue for his country is fighting the appreciation of the national currency. He added that to address this situation, you may need unlimited creation of money, which will stimulate economic growth and to achieve 2% inflation.

European stocks rallied to the highest in 22 months as U.S. lawmakers passed a budget bill that avoided most scheduled tax increases threatening a recovery in the world’s largest economy.

Rio Tinto Group and Volkswagen AG (VOW) climbed at least 4 percent each to lead mining companies and automakers higher as Chinese manufacturing grew. ArcelorMittal gained the most in 11 weeks after selling a stake in its Canadian unit for $1.1 billion. BAE Systems Plc (BA/) soared 4 percent as the U.S. budget deal delayed defense spending cuts.

The Stoxx Europe 600 Index (SXXP) jumped 2 percent to 285.33 at the close of trading, the highest level since Feb. 28, 2011.

The number of shares changing hands in Stoxx 600 companies today was 29 percent higher than the 30-day average, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Germany’s DAX Index advanced 2.2 percent to a five-year high and the U.K.’s FTSE 100 (UKX) climbed above 6,000 for the first time since July 2011. The Swiss market was closed for a holiday.

Volkswagen, Europe’s biggest carmaker, climbed 4 percent to 179 euros. Porsche SE gained 3.1 percent to 63.61 euros and Bayerische Motoren Werke AG (BMW) added 4.1 percent to 75.93 euros.

ArcelorMittal (MT), the world’s biggest steelmaker, gained 4.5 percent to 13.51 euros, the largest increase since Oct. 17. China Steel Corp. and Posco led a group that agreed to pay $1.1 billion for a 15 percent stake in ArcelorMittal Mines Canada Inc. to secure supplies of iron ore.

BAE Systems climbed 4 percent to 350.5 pence. The U.K. military-aircraft manufacturer, which gets about 45 percent of revenue from the U.S., may benefit from the budget bill’s two- month delay to scheduled spending cuts to military programs.

A.P. Moeller-Maersk A/S advanced 4.4 percent to 44,480 kroner as the head of north Asia operations for its container shipping unit said trade between Asia and Europe will grow. Demand for trade on the Asia-Europe route is expected to grow until Lunar New Year in February as Chinese manufacturers produce and export more, Tim Smith said in a Bloomberg Television interview in Hong Kong today.

Today the price of oil rose to its highest level in three months, which was due to the fact that, despite all the difficulties, U.S. lawmakers still passed a bill that cancels the automatic tax increases and spending cuts, as well as to prevent the impending recession in the largest country of the world for the consumption of oil.

Futures climbed 2.2% after the House of Representatives approved a measure to abolish the Senate raising taxes for 98% of households. U.S. President Barack Obama said he would sign the bill.

Economists say that the action of the Congress has allowed people to feel much more optimistic about the U.S. economy, which was expressed in the rise in oil prices. Note that oil prices fell by 7.1% last year, while showing the first decline since 2008.

Also today, the support of oil have published data on the U.S., according to which it was noted the expansion of industrial production in the U.S. in December. Note that the manufacturing index from the Institute for Supply Management rose to 50.7 last month, up from 49.5 in November, which was the weakest level since July 2009.

February futures price of U.S. light crude oil WTI (Light Sweet Crude Oil) vіrosla to 93.22 dollars a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

February futures price for North Sea petroleum mix of mark Brent rose $ 1, or 0.9 percent, to $ 112.26 a barrel on the London Stock Exchange ICE Futures Europe.

In today's trading, gold prices rose by more than 4%, which was caused by the successful adoption of the budget deal by U.S. lawmakers. The news had a positive impact on market sentiment, which immediately took to increase their investment in the precious metal, which they avoided the end of last year due to the looming uncertainty.

Note that the most actively traded gold contract today for delivery in February, which increased by $ 11.90, or 0.7%, to $ 1,687.70 per troy ounce.

Against the background of the situation, experts say that the short-term budget deal could attract U.S. gold buyers who are betting on continued fiscal imbalances and suggest the fall in the U.S. currency. Recall that gold is denominated in U.S. dollars, has an opposite trend compared to the movement of the currency. They also added that, according to their forecasts, gold will continue to rise over the next few weeks

At the same time, many analysts expect the increase in gold prices during the whole of 2013, as the world's central banks will continue to pursue a policy of "easy money" in an attempt to rekindle growth. This policy can also bring concerns about the weakness of the paper currency, raising the demand for precious metals as an alternative wealth.

However, buying physical gold has disappointed some investors, which brings to the increase in the last year, and may have further resistance, since, according to rumors it is likely that India, which is the largest consumer of gold in the world, are considering imposing a tax on the import of metal to reduce the trade deficit of the country. Two officials of the Ministry of Finance reported that the government may raise the import tax to 5% from 4% for the week, and up to 6% of the federal budget, which is usually provided at the end of February. Recall that gold is the second value of imported goods the country after oil.

February futures price of gold on the COMEX is now 1690.50 an ounce.

USD / CAD continued to fall after the publication of the U.S. indices. Pair has been under pressure in trading in Europe and the USA after the restore traction to the risk of impact on the USD.

According to forecasts of the ISM index in the manufacturing industry in the U.S. would grow from 49.5 to 50.3 in December, but the figure rose to 50.7. The index of prices paid rose from 52.5 to 55.5 vs. 51.5 forecast. Construction Spending fell 0.3% in November against the expected growth of 0.6% and 0.7% in the pre. period.

Pair USD / CAD is currently trading around 0.9840.

AUD / USD started 2013 strong rally after being bumped into downtrend line at 1.0585 2011-12 in December.

Couple broke up trend, but 1.0613/24 resistance area (highs in August and September) can continue to constrain growth.

At the moment the exchange rate AUD / USD traded at 1.0512

Sold E6.979bln vs target E5.8bln-E7.0bln

- E3.792bln 3-month BTF, avg yield -0.015% (-0.015%), cover 2.56 (2.29)

- E1.697bln 6-month BTF, avg yield -0.003% (-0.006%), cover 2.82 (4.45)

- E1.490bln 12-month BTF, avg yield 0.022% (0.005%), cover 2.87 (2.51)

U.S. stock-index futures rose as lawmakers passed a budget bill that prevents the so-called fiscal cliff of automatic spending cuts and tax increases.
Global Stocks:
Hang Seng 23,311.98+655.06 +2.89%
FTSE  6,034.41+136.60 +2.32%
CAC  3,717.83+76.76 +2.11%
DAX 7,768.52+156.13 +2.05%
Stock markets in Japan and China were closed today.
Crude oil $93.77 +2.12%
Gold $1688.30 +0.75%

Bank of America (BAC) added to Conviction Buy List at Evercore.
Facebook (FB) resumed with a Neutral at Cowen & Co.
Facebook (FB), positive comments at BofA/Merrill; resumed Buy rating and $31 target.
Google (GOOG) was reiterated at Perform at Oppenheimer. Target wad lowered to $765 from $715.

EUR/USD $1.3100, $1.3250, $1.3300

EUR/GBP stg0.8050, stg0.8115

AUD/USD  $1.0400, $1.0450, $1.0500

USD/JPY Y86.00, Y86.40, Y87.00

USD/CHF Chf0.9250

EUR/USD

Offers  $1.3400, $1.3350, $1.3340,$1.3290/00

Bids  $1.3225/20, $1.3200, $1.3160/50

GBP/USD

Offers $1.6450,$1.6400, $1.6355/60

Bids  $1.6285/80, $1.6265/60, $1.6250, $1.6200

AUD/USD

Offers $1.0600, $1.0550, $1.0510, $1.0500

Bids  $1.0335/30, $1.0310/00, $1.0250, $1.0240/30

EUR/JPY

Offers Y117.00,Y116.50, Y116.20/25, Y116.00

Bids  Y115.00, Y114.50,Y114.00

USD/JPY

Offers Y88.50, Y88.00, Y87.50

Bids   Y87.00/90, Y86.80, Y86.55/50, Y86.20, Y86.00, Y85.80

EUR/GBP

Offers  stg0.8245/50, stg0.8200/05, stg0.8170/80

Bids  stg0.8115/10, stg0.8100, stg0.8095/90, stg0.8050

On Wednesday, USD/CAD has fallen amid spike traction for risk, tossed up CAD and other commodity currencies. Pair lost more than 100 points., Down from session highs (0.9946) 0.9840 to a new low and is now trading near 0.9850 (-0.8% from the opening price).

Now investors are expected to publish a report in 15.00 GMT on ISM manufacturing activity for December, which may give them a reason to think about the next step, the Fed. According to the forecast, the index is expected to return to the zone of expansion, from 49.5 to 50.2.

The single currency is kept at the top of the range 1.32-1.33 in anticipation of an early release of preliminary indicators of inflation in Germany. According to forecasts, the December CPI will rise by 1.9% y / y and 0.7% m / m vs. +1.9% and -0.2% in November.

Euro keeps fighting mood today because the U.S. had found a short-term solution to the fiscal cliff, adopted by the House Republicans and the President signed the bill.

European stocks rallied to a 19-month high as U.S. lawmakers passed a budget bill that avoided most scheduled tax increases threatening a recovery in the world’s largest economy. Asian shares advanced.

The U.S. House of Representatives passed the budget legislation just after 11 p.m. in Washington yesterday, breaking a yearlong impasse over how to head off more than $600 billion in tax increases and spending cuts set to start taking effect yesterday. President Barack Obama said he will sign the bill after 257-167 vote. The Senate approved the proposals 89-8 in the first hours of Jan. 1.

The bill will delay by two months automatic spending cuts scheduled to start this month as Republican lawmakers abandoned their effort to add further reductions to the deal. It reinstates tax cuts that expired Dec. 31 on taxable income of individuals up to $400,000 and of married couples of up to $450,000, leaving those top earners with a marginal tax rate of 39.6 percent, up from 35 percent last year.

A gauge of mining shares soared 3.9 percent, leading gains on the Stoxx 600. Rio Tinto rallied 5.4 percent to 3,700 pence, the highest price in 10 months, and Anglo American Plc surged 4.7 percent to 1,983.5 pence.

All 14 members of an index of auto-industry companies in the Stoxx 600 advanced. Volkswagen, Europe’s biggest carmaker, climbed 3.8 percent to 178.65 euros. Porsche SE gained 4.5 percent to 64.50 euros and Bayerische Motoren Werke AG (BMW) added 3.7 percent

ArcelorMittal, the world’s biggest steelmaker, rose 3.8 percent to 13.42 euros. China Steel Corp. and Posco led a group that agreed to pay $1.1 billion for a 15 percent stake in ArcelorMittal Mines Canada Inc. to secure supplies of iron ore.

Germany alloted E4.148bln of 2-year benchmark 0.00% Dec 2014 Schatz issue Wednesday at an average yield of 0.01% (-0.01%) and covered 1.5 times (1.9).

The Japanese yen continued to decline after the U.S. had found a short-term solution to the fiscal cliff.

During the Asian session, the pair pointed to a maximum of 115.99, but fell back in Europe, finding support at 115.10.

France's PMI came in line with expectations improved by 0.1 to 44.6. Spanish index fell in December from 45.3 to 44.6, confounding forecasts 45.1. Italian PMI exceeded forecast 45.3, appreciated from 45.1 to 46.7. Greek index eased to 41.4 from 41.8. Germany PMI figures and E-17 have disappointed, falling to 46.0 (from 46.8 - 46.3 forecast) and 46.1 (from 46.2 - 46.3 forecast), respectively.

EUR/USD $1.3100

EUR/GBP stg0.8050, stg0.8115

AUD/USD $1.0400, $1.0450

Asian stocks rose, heading for their highest close since August 2011, as the U.S. House of Representatives passed legislation averting some of $600 billion in automatic tax increases and spending cuts.

Nikkei 225 Closed

S&P/ASX 200 4,705.94 +56.99 +1.23%

Shanghai Composite Closed

Australian gold producer Newcrest Mining Ltd. added 3.6 percent as the precious metal climbed.

BHP Billiton Ltd., the world’s biggest mining company, advanced 2 percent in Sydney, leading gains among raw-material producers, after China’s manufacturing expanded for a third month.

The U.S. dollar strengthened against the major currencies, as the threat of "fiscal cliff" in the U.S. is still a serious problem.

Most Asian stocks declined, paring this year’s advance, with a deadline looming for the U.S. Congress to reach a budget agreement to avert automatic tax increases and spending cuts.

Nikkei 225 Closed

S&P/ASX 200 4,648.95 -22.35 -0.48%

Shanghai Composite 2,269.13 +35.88 +1.61%

BHP Billiton Ltd.  and Rio Tinto Group, the world’s largest mining companies, led declines among companies with earnings closely tied to economic growth.

Fairfax Media Ltd. surged 7.4 percent, paring its slump in 2012, amid speculation billionaire Gina Rinehart and investor John Singleton may seek control of Australia’s second-largest newspaper publisher.

China Resources Power Holdings Co., a Hong Kong-listed mainland utility, rose 1.4 percent after a survey showed Chinese manufacturing speeding up.

European stocks were little changed, with the benchmark index completing the biggest annual gain since 2009, as U.S. lawmakers faced a midnight deadline to agree on a budget deal to prevent automatic deficit-reduction measures from coming into effect tomorrow.

The Stoxx 600 added 0.1 percent to 279.14 at 1:44 p.m. in London, following a shortened day of trading. The benchmark measure ended the year with a gain of 14 percent.

China’s manufacturing expanded at the fastest pace in 19 months, a report showed today. The final reading of a Purchasing Managers’ Index was 51.5 in December, according to a statement from HSBC Holdings Plc and Markit Economics. That compares with the 50.9 preliminary reading on Dec. 14 and a final 50.5 in November. A level above 50 indicates expansion.

2012 Performance

Greece’s ASE Index (ASE) and Germany’s DAX Index were the best- performing western European markets in 2012, as they surged 33 percent and 29 percent respectively. Spain’s IBEX 35 Index was the worst, dropping 4.7 percent. The U.K.’s FTSE 100 and France’s CAC 40 advanced 5.8 percent and 15 percent respectively.

Nine of the 18 western European markets including Germany and Switzerland were closed today.

FTSE 100 5,897.81 -27.56 -0.47% CAC 40 3,641.07 +20.82 +0.58% DAX 7,612.39 -43.49 -0.57%

ACEA lost 2.4 percent to 4.55 euros after its renewable- energy unit agreed to sell Apollo Srl, which manages photovoltaic plants with a total installed capacity of 32.54 megawatts, to RTR for 102.50 million euros.

Bankia slipped 3.2 percent to 39.1 euro cents, erasing its earlier gains. The lender has plunged 43 percent in the last three days, after Spain said Bankia has a negative value of 4.15 billion euros.

HSBC Holdings Plc (HSBA), Europe’s largest lender, dropped 0.7 percent to 646.9 pence, while Banco de Sabadell SA lost 2 percent to 1.98 euros.

SNS Reaal NV, the Dutch bank and insurer struggling to meet capital demands and repay a 2008 loan, dropped 2 percent to 1.03 euros. The company ignored Ernst & Young LLP’s advice in 2010 that it should write down as much as 1.2 billion euros on property finance loans

00:00Japan Bank holiday-

00:00China Bank holiday-

00:00Switzerland Bank holiday-

05:30Australia Commodity Prices, Y/YDecember -11.6%-8.0%

The yen and dollar weakened against most of their major counterparts as U.S. lawmakers passed legislation to avert the so-called fiscal cliff of automatic spending cuts and tax increases. President Barack Obama said he will sign the bill passed by Congress. The bipartisan vote in the U.S. House broke a yearlong impasse over how to head off $600 billion in tax increases and spending cuts set to begin taking effect at the start of this year.

The yen fell past 87 per dollar for the first time in 2 1/2 years after Japan’s Prime Minister Shinzo Abe reiterated his intention to weaken the nation’s currency. Japan’s Abe said in a New Year statement yesterday that the most urgent issue for his country is to break out of currency appreciation and deflation. “Bold” monetary policy is one of the three prongs of his economic measures, he said.

There was no trade in major markets yesterday, and Japan is closed until Jan. 4 for national holidays.

EUR/USD: during the Asian session, the pair rose to $ 1.3300.

GBP/USD: during the Asian session, the pair rose to $ 1.6380.

USD/JPY: during the Asian session, the pair rose to Y87.30.

(pare/closed(00:00 GMT +02:00)/change, %)

EUR/USD$1,3187 -0,21%

GBP/USD $1,6162 -0,02%

USD/CHF Chf0,9154 +0,25%

USD/JPY Y86,14 +0,08%

EUR/JPY Y113,60 -0,14%

GBP/JPY Y139,21 +0,06%

AUD/USD $1,0370 +0,03%

NZD/USD $0,8220 +0,28%

Change % Change Last

Oil$91.03+0.16+0.18%

Gold$1,664.60+0.90+0.05%

Change % Change Last

Nikkei 225 Closed

S&P/ASX 200 4,648.95 -22.35 -0.48%

Shanghai Composite 2,269.13 +35.88 +1.61%

FTSE 100 5,897.81 -27.56 -0.47%

CAC 40 3,641.07 +20.82 +0.58%

DAX 7,612.39 -43.49 -0.57%

Dow13,096.31-18.28-0.14%

Nasdaq2,985.91-4.25-0.14%

00:00Japan Bank holiday-

00:00China Bank holiday-

00:00Switzerland Bank holiday-

05:30Australia Commodity Prices, Y/YDecember -11.6%

08:50France Manufacturing PMI(finally)December 44.644.6

08:55Germany Manufacturing PMI(finally)December 46.346.3

09:00Eurozone Manufacturing PMI(finally)December 46.346.3

09:30United Kingdom Purchasing Manager Index ManufacturingDecember 49.149.2

13:00Germany CPI, m/m(preliminary)December -0.1%+0.7%

13:00Germany CPI, y/y(preliminary)December +1.9%+1.9%

14:00U.S. Manufacturing PMI(preliminary)December 54.253.2

15:00U.S. ISM ManufacturingDecember 49.550.2

15:00U.S. Construction Spending, m/mNovember +1.4%+0.6%