CFD Markets News and Forecasts — 04-01-2013

The dollar retreated from a three-week high against the euro after data showed that the U.S. unemployment rate in December was 7.8%, while it was expected that the rate will remain unchanged. Meanwhile, an unpleasant surprise was an upward revision (to 7.8% from 7.7%) than last month. Note that this situation increases the likelihood that the Federal Reserve will further stimulus measures in the near future.

The euro rose after reports released yesterday the last Fed meeting showed that the central bank could finish his third round of monthly bond purchases, known as quantitative easing later this year. The dollar rose to its highest level against the yen since July 2010, and therefore, the Japanese currency headed for its most prolonged weekly decline for the last 24 years.

The dollar index, which is used to track the value of the U.S. currency against the currencies of the partner, increased by 0.3% to 80.617.

The Canadian dollar has appreciated by 0.2% against the dollar after government data showed that the unemployment rate unexpectedly fell in December (up 7.1%), reaching a four-year low at the same time. At the same time, the number of jobs increased by 39,800.

Sterling fell against all major peers except the yen after a report showed that activity in the UK services sector unexpectedly fell in December.

European (SXXP) stocks climbed to their highest in more than 22 months, as U.S. reports showed employers added more workers in December and the services industry expanded more than forecast.

ThromboGenics NV added 3.3 percent after confirming the launch date for its Jetrea vision restoration treatment. Fresnillo Plc (FRES), the world’s biggest primary silver producer, slid 4 percent after UBS AG downgraded the shares. Randgold Resources Ltd. (RRS) lost 4.1 percent as the price of the metal fell.

The Stoxx Europe 600 Index advanced 0.4 percent to 287.83 at the close of trading, its highest since February 2011. The gauge rose 3.3 percent this week.

National benchmark indexes rose in 14 of the 18 western European markets.

FTSE 100 6,089.84 +42.50 +0.70% CAC 40 3,730.02 +8.85 +0.24% DAX 7,776.37 +19.93 +0.26%

Bankia SA (BKIA), the lender that received the largest Spanish bailout, surged 49 percent to 61.5 euro cents, for the biggest gain on the Stoxx 600.

Sonova Holding AG (SOON) advanced 2.9 percent to 107.7 Swiss francs after Bank of America’s Merrill Lynch unit upgraded the maker of hearing health-care products to buy from neutral.

Fresnillo slid 4 percent to 1,810 pence after UBS downgraded the shares to neutral from buy, saying the stock has outperformed silver and its peers. The price of the metal today fell to its lowest since August.

Randgold Resources, a gold producer in West Africa, lost 4.1 percent to 5,975 pence as the price of metal dropped. A gauge of commodity-company shares fell 0.9 percent, for the worst performance of the 19 industry groups on the Stoxx 600.

Marks & Spencer Group Plc (MKS), the U.K.’s biggest clothing retailer, retreated 3.1 percent to 376.4 pence. Nomura Holdings Inc. lowered its 2013 pre-tax estimates for the retailer to 666 million pounds ($1.07 billion) from 694 million pounds, citing a fall in general merchandise sales.

Oil prices show mixed trend, driven by the release of data that showed that U.S. employers have increased the number of jobs is greater than expected. At the same time, the surprise was a significant upward revision rate for the last month. With these data increased the likelihood that the Federal Reserve can turn incentives for the largest economy in the world.

Meanwhile, on the dynamics of trading influence of the Ministry of Energy report that showed the reduction of oil reserves in the week ended Dec. 28. According to reports, U.S. crude inventories fell by 11.1 million barrels, while leaving to 359.9 million barrels, the lowest level in the last three months. Note that many analysts expected inventory reduction by only 1 million barrels (to 370.1 million).

In addition, gasoline inventories rose by 2.570 million barrels (to 225.7 million), exceeding the forecast of 2.2 million in the same time, distillate stocks rose by 4.570 million barrels to 124 million, more than three times the growth forecast (1.25 million barrels).

Economists note that such a large drop of oil is awesome, but the market does not react as it is compensated by a large volume of stocks of gasoline and distillates.

February futures price of U.S. light crude oil WTI (Light Sweet Crude Oil) fell to 92.42 dollars a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

February futures price for North Sea petroleum mix of mark Brent fell by 1 dollars to $ 110.92 a barrel on the London Stock Exchange ICE Futures Europe.

Today, during the day, the price of gold decreased, but at the same time, the published data on employment in the U.S. have led to a partial recovery of metal with the minimum values ​​of the session.

Note that today's decline was caused by the publication of the minutes of yesterday's meeting, FOMC, which expressed concern about the increasing promotion of monetary policy.

Prices retreated after data showed that the rate of employment among U.S. employers fell slightly in December, pointing out that the weak economic growth has failed to make a breakthrough in the high level of unemployment. These podpityvayutsya expectations that the Fed will hold the tightening of monetary policy in the near future, which immediately caused the fall of the dollar against a basket of major currencies.

Analysts point out that from a technical perspective, gold is still vulnerable, as it is trading below its 200-day moving average, which is currently at $ 1661 per ounce. Meanwhile, the spot prices are still on the way to the biggest two-day fall since the beginning of November last year.

As exchange-traded fund SPDR Gold Trust reported yesterday outflow 9.638 tons, the biggest one-day decline since Sept. 26. At the same time, the decline in prices spurred buying from jewelers in Asia.

February futures price of gold on the COMEX fell by -32.3 $, and now stands at 1642.3 dollars per ounce.

U.S. stocks slightly rose after government data showed employers added workers in December at about the same pace as the prior month.
Global Stocks:
Nikkei  10,688.11+292.93 +2.82%
Hang Seng 23,331.09-67.51 -0.29%
Shanghai Composite 2,276.99+7.86 +0.35%
FTSE  6,069.53+22.19 +0.37%
CAC  3,714.56-6.61 -0.18%
DAX 7,758.87+2.43 +0.03%
Crude oil $92.28 -0.69%
Gold $1645.20 -1.76%

EUR/USD $1.2900, $1.3100, $1.3200, $1.3285

EUR/GBP stg0.8100

AUD/USD $1.0400

USD/JPY Y86.00, Y86.50

07:00Germany Retail sales, real adjustedNovember -1.3% +0.9%+1.2%

07:00Germany Retail sales, real unadjusted, y/yNovember -0.8% -1.6%-0.9%

08:50France Services PMI(finally)December 46.046.045.2

08:55Germany Services PMI(finally)December 52.152.152.0

09:00Eurozone Services PMI(finally)December 47.847.847.8

09:30United Kingdom Purchasing Manager Index ServicesDecember 50.250.448.9

09:30United Kingdom Net Lending to Individuals, blnNovember -0.30.4-0.1

09:30United Kingdom Mortgage ApprovalsNovember 53.054.254.0

10:00Eurozone Harmonized CPI, Y/YNovember +2.2%+2.1%+2.2%

The dollar strengthened the most in seven weeks against the yen on speculation improving U.S. employment data will encourage policy makers to bring an early end to asset purchases.

The U.S. currency strengthened through $1.30 per euro for the first time in three weeks after Federal Reserve minutes showed policy makers may end their $85 billion monthly bond purchases this year, halting a program that tends to debase the greenback.

A few members of the Federal Open Market Committee said “ongoing asset purchases would likely be warranted until about the end of 2013,” minutes of the Dec. 11-12 meeting released yesterday showed. “Several others thought that it would probably be appropriate to slow or to stop purchases well before the end of 2013.”

The yen dropped beyond 88 per dollar for the first time since July 2010 amid speculation the Bank of Japan will boost money supply to end deflation.

The yen headed for an eighth week of losses against the dollar, tumbling 2.7 percent since Dec. 28. Even so, it is still about 15 percent above its 10-year average of 101.22 per dollar.

Japan’s newly installed Prime Minister Shinzo Abe said on Jan. 1 the most urgent issue for his country was to break out of currency appreciation and deflation. “Bold” monetary policy is one of the three prongs of his economic measures, he said.

The Bank of Japan  will hold its first policy meeting this year on Jan. 21-22 after expanding its asset-purchase program by 10 trillion yen at its previous gathering on Dec. 20.

The pound fell after the December UK PMI services sector returned to negative territory, falling from 50.2 to 48.9 vs. 50.5. Data on money supply and lending individuals also were worse than expected, showing a decline of 0.2%, and £ 0.1 billion respectively. Consumer lending increased by £ 0.1 billion

EUR / USD: during the European session the pair fell to a new intraday low of $ 1.2996

GBP / USD: during the European session the pair fell to a new intraday low of $ 1.6008

USD / JPY: during the European session, the pair rose to a new intraday high of Y88.40

At 13:30 GMT, Canada will release the unemployment rate, changes in the number of employees, including full and part-time jobs in December, the index of commodity prices for November. In the U.S. at 13:30 GMT will the unemployment rate, changes in the number of people employed in non-agricultural sector, changes in the number of employees in the private sector of the economy, changes in the number of employees in the manufacturing sector of the economy, the change in average hourly wages, 15:00 GMT - ISM composite index for unproductive for December, changes in the volume of industrial orders for November at 16:00 GMT - data on stocks of crude oil from the Department of Energy. At 18:15 GMT a speech member FOMC Charles Plosser, 20:30 GMT and will speak member FOMC member FOMC Janet Yellen.

EUR/USD

Offers   $1.3150, $1.3100, $1.3035/40

Bids   $1.2990, $1.2950, $1.2930/25

GBP/USD

Offers   $1.6150, $1.6135/40, $1.6100,  $1.6045/50

Bids  $1.6000, $1.5950, $1.5910/00

AUD/USD

Offers  $1.0550, $1.0500, $1.0480, $1.0440/45

Bids   $1.0380, $1.0350, $1.0300

EUR/JPY

Offers   Y116.00, Y115.50, Y115.20, Y115.00

Bids   Y114.45/40, Y114.00, Y113.50, Y113.20, Y113.00

USD/JPY

Offers  Y90.00, Y89.50, Y89.00, Y88.50

Bids  Y87.75/70, Y87.40, Y87.00, Y86.55/50, Y86.20

EUR/GBP

Offers  stg0.8200/05, stg0.8170/80, stg0.8150

Bids   stg0.8050, stg0.8020

European stocks declined from a 22- month high as investors awaited U.S. jobs data, and Federal Reserve minutes showed policy makers debated ending their bond- purchase program.

The Federal Open Market Committee minutes, released yesterday in Washington, showed a split on how long the bond purchases should last. Participants who provided estimates were “approximately evenly divided” between those who said it would be appropriate to end the purchases around mid-2013 and those in favor of continuing beyond that time.

Fresnillo slid 5.6 percent to 1,779 pence after UBS downgraded the shares to neutral from buy, citing recent gains in the stock which mean it has outperformed silver and its peers. The price of the metal today fell to its lowest since August.

Randgold Resources, a gold producer in West Africa, lost 3.3 percent to 6,025 pence as the price of metal dropped. A gauge of commodity-company shares fell 1.6 percent, for the worst performance of the 19 industry groups on the Stoxx 600.

Marks & Spencer Group Plc, the U.K.’s biggest clothing retailer, dropped 3 percent to 376.7 pence. Nomura Holdings Inc. lowered its 2013 pre-tax estimates for the retailer to 666 million pounds ($1.07 billion) from 694 million pounds, citing a fall in general merchandise sales.

EUR/USD $1.2900, $1.3100, $1.3200, $1.3285

EUR/GBP stg0.8100

AUD/USD $1.0400

USD/JPY Y86.00, Y86.50

GBP/USD $1.6200

Asian stocks outside Japan fell, paring the biggest weekly advance in more than a month, after Federal Reserve policy makers said they will probably end their $85 billion monthly bond-purchase program sometime this year. Japanese equities jumped as markets reopened from holidays.

Nikkei 225 10,688.11 +292.93 +2.82%

Hang Seng 23,331.09 -67.51 -0.29%

S&P/ASX 200 4,723.78 -16.90 -0.36%

Rio Tinto Group, the world’s second-largest mining company, dropped 1 percent in Sydney as metals prices fell.

Toyota Motor Corp. surged 6.4 percent as the yen weakened to the lowest level against the dollar since July 2010, boosting the earnings outlook for exporters.

Yesterday the dollar has increased significantly while still achieving a three-week high against the euro. This evolution was triggered by the fact that many market participants are awaiting adoption by American lawmakers agreement, which will help to increase public debt limit.

Value of the yen rose against the euro and the dollar on concern that in February and March the U.S. Treasury exhausts its "extraordinary resources" in the amount of 200 billion dollars, which will be used to finance the preservation of the government. Recall that the 31 December 2012 the country has reached its debt ceiling, which is $ 16,400 billion

The dollar index (DXY), which is used to track the value of the dollar against the currencies of six U.S. partner, has reached three-week high, rising at the same time by 0.5% (to 80.229).

At the same time, economists Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc said that according to their forecasts, the U.S. currency fell to the end of the year to $ 1.19 per euro by year-end.

Meanwhile, according to JPMorgan, the index currency G7, which is calculated as the average of the last three months, fell to 7.54, while reaching its lowest level since Dec. 21. Note that the decline makes investments in currencies with higher interest rates more attractive. Note that last year the average value of the index was 9.23.

The Australian dollar has returned all its previously lost ground against the U.S. dollar after a report showed U.S. private company in December added more jobs than expected in December. Note that, according to data from ADP, the number of workers increased by 215,000, from a revised upward rate in November at 148,000, as well as the expectations at around 140,000.

Asian stocks rose, pushing a regional equities index to its highest level in 17 months, after an expansion of U.S. manufacturing and China’s services industries fueled optimism in the global economic recovery.

Nikkei 225 Closed

S&P/ASX 200 4,740.68 +34.74 +0.74%

Shanghai Composite Closed

Rio Tinto Group, the world’s second-largest mining company, climbed 2.4 percent in Sydney as metals prices rose.

China Communications Services Corp., a Beijing-based telecommunications support firm, gained 1.7 percent in Hong Kong.

Australian miner Aquarius Platinum Ltd. soared 13 percent, the most since May, amid speculation that South African supply of the metal will be lower during the first quarter.

Euro-area stocks declined from a 17- month high amid concern a budget deal will fail to reduce the U.S. government’s fiscal deficit. Swiss shares rallied after the New Year holiday.

K+S AG (SDF) retreated 3.5 percent after Exane BNP Paribas lowered its price forecast for the potash maker’s shares. UBS AG (UBSN) and Cie. Financiere Richemont SA each rallied more than 4 percent, leading Swiss stocks higher. Alcatel-Lucent SA (ALU) climbed 9.8 percent as Credit Suisse Group AG raised its recommendation on the maker of telecommunication equipment.

The Euro Stoxx 50 Index of the euro area’s biggest companies fell 0.4 percent to 2,701.22 at the close of trading. The broader Stoxx Europe 600 Index added 0.5 percent to its highest since February 2011 as the Swiss

National benchmark indexes gained in 15 of the 18 western- European markets.

FTSE 100 6,047.34 +19.97 +0.33% CAC 40 3,721.17 -12.76 -0.34% DAX 7,756.44 -22.34 -0.29%

K+S slid 3.5 percent to 33.89 euros. Exane cut its share- price forecast 5 percent to 29.50 euros and left its recommendation at underperform, meaning investors should sell the shares. Citigroup Inc. lowered its rating to neutral from buy, saying that a deal by U.S. and Canadian companies to supply potash to China was negative for European producers.

UBS, Switzerland’s biggest bank, jumped 4.1 percent to 14.85 Swiss francs. Richemont, the world’s second-largest luxury-goods company, rallied 5.7 percent to 75.50 francs. Swatch Group AG (UHR) climbed 6.4 percent to 490.50 francs. Sales of goods including jewelry and watches in Hong Kong jumped 14 percent in November from a year earlier, the city’s government said today. They declined 2.9 percent in October.

Alcatel-Lucent surged 9.8 percent to 1.16 euros after Credit Suisse upgraded the stock to neutral from underperform. Alcatel’s debt agreement means the company will maintain sufficient gross cash to remain a viable business in the long term, Credit Suisse wrote in a note.

Next Plc (NXT) advanced 2.7 percent to 3,873 pence. The U.K.’s second-largest clothing retailer said full-year profit will be 611 million pounds ($987 million) to 625 million pounds. The company had forecast pretax profit for the fiscal year ending this month of 590 million pounds to 620 million pounds.

Wacker Chemie AG (WCH) rose 5.1 percent to 53.47 euros after UBS added the German maker of polysilicon to the list of its most preferred chemical stocks in Europe. The price of the material used to make solar panels climbed, SK Securities Co. said.

Despite a slight increase during the session, U.S. stock indices were unable to hold their positions, and finished trading in the red.

Market participants estimate the economic outlook after the final budget agreement, while focusing on the problem of increasing the debt ceiling.

Note also that even lower indices limited published data on private sector employment from ADP.

According to the report, in December, despite concerns about the "budget cliff" private sector continue to increase the rate of employment, showing the maximum increase from February 2012. At the same time, data on the number of claims for unemployment benefits were slightly worse than expected. However, a strong data from ADP give reason to expect a strong government employment report that will be presented tomorrow.

In addition, the pressure on the index was published minutes of the last meeting of the Federal Open Market.

DOW index components show a mixed trend. At the moment, the leader shares in Merck & Co. Inc. (MRK, +2.35%). The maximum losses are shares Unitedhealth (UNH, -4.55%).

At the moment most of the sectors of the S & P is in the red. The greatest decrease demonstrates the technology sector (-0.6%). Leading conglomerates sector (+0.3%).

At the close:

Dow -21.27 13,391.28 -0.16%

Nasdaq -11.69 3,100.57 -0.38%

01:45China HSBC Services PMIDecember 52.150.6

The yen extended its longest weekly losing streak since 1989 against the dollar before U.S. data forecast to show hiring increased the most in four months. U.S. Labor Department data may show today that nonfarm payrolls rose by 153,000 last month, the most since August, according to the median estimate of economists surveyed by Bloomberg News. The report will follow figures from the ADP Research Institute yesterday showing companies in the U.S. added 215,000 workers in December, exceeding the 140,000 increase forecast by economists.

The U.S. currency rose for a third day versus the euro after minutes of the Federal Reserve’s last meeting showed policy makers may end their $85 billion monthly bond purchases this year, halting a program that tends to debase the greenback. A few members of the Federal Open Market Committee “expressed the view that ongoing asset purchases would likely be warranted until about the end of 2013,” minutes of their Dec. 11-12 meeting showed yesterday. “Several others thought that it would probably be appropriate to slow or to stop purchases well before the end of 2013, citing concerns about financial stability or the size of the balance sheet.” At that meeting, the FOMC announced Treasury purchases of $45 billion a month in addition to $40 billion a month of mortgage-debt purchases begun in September.

Australia’s dollar weakened against most of its 16 major counterparts after service-industry indexes for Australia and China dropped in December. HSBC Holdings Plc and Markit Economics said today a purchasing managers’ index of Chinese non-manufacturing industries fell to 51.7 from 52.1 in November. A separate report from Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBA) and the Australian Industry Group showed their gauge for the nation’s services industry decreased to 43.2 from 47.1. Readings below 50 signal contraction for both indexes.

EUR / USD: during the Asian session the pair fell to $ 1.3020.

GBP / USD: during the Asian session the pair fell to $ 1.6055.

USD / JPY: during the Asian session, the pair rose to Y87.85.

Change % Change Last

Oil$92.67-0.25-0.27%

Change % Change Last

Nikkei 225 Closed

S&P/ASX 200 4,740.68 +34.74 +0.74%

Shanghai Composite Closed

FTSE 100 6,047.34 +19.97 +0.33%

CAC 40 3,721.17 -12.76 -0.34%

DAX 7,756.44 -22.34 -0.29%

Dow -21.27 13,391.28 -0.16%

Nasdaq -11.69 3,100.57 -0.38%

S&P -3.08 1,459.34 -0.21%

(pare/closed(00:00 GMT +02:00)/change, %)

EUR/USD$1,3048 -1,10%

GBP/USD $1,6105 -0,92%

USD/CHF Chf0,9266 +0,96%

USD/JPY Y87,24 -0,11%

EUR/JPY Y113,83 -1,17%

GBP/JPY Y140,48 -1,04%

AUD/USD $1,0466 -0,35%

NZD/USD $0,8280 -0,74%

01:45China HSBC Services PMIDecember 52.150.6

07:00Germany Retail sales, real adjustedNovember -2.8%+0.9%

07:00Germany Retail sales, real unadjusted, y/yNovember -0.8%-1.6%

08:00United Kingdom Halifax house price indexDecember 0.0%+0.1%

08:00United Kingdom Halifax house price index 3m Y/YDecember -1.2%

08:50France Services PMI(finally)December 46.046.0

08:55Germany Services PMI(finally)December 52.152.1

09:00Eurozone Services PMI(finally)December 47.847.8

09:30United Kingdom Purchasing Manager Index ServicesDecember 50.250.4

09:30United Kingdom Net Lending to Individuals, blnNovember -0.30.4

09:30United Kingdom Mortgage ApprovalsNovember 53.054.2

10:00Eurozone Harmonized CPI, Y/YNovember +2.2%+2.1%

13:30Canada Unemployment rateDecember 7.2%7.3%

13:30Canada EmploymentDecember 59.30.0

13:30Canada Raw Material Price IndexNovember 0.0%-0.9%

13:30Canada Industrial product prices, m/mNovember -0.1%-0.1%

13:30U.S. Unemployment RateDecember 7.7%7.7%

13:30U.S. Nonfarm PayrollsDecember 146145

13:30U.S. Average hourly earningsDecember +0.2%+0.2%

13:30U.S. Average workweekDecember 34.434.4

15:00U.S. ISM Non-ManufacturingDecember 54.754.3

15:00U.S. Factory OrdersNovember +0.8%+0.4%

16:00U.S. Crude Oil Inventories- -0.6

18:15U.S. FOMC Member Charles Plosser Speaks-