CFD Markets News and Forecasts — 03-01-2013

In today's trading the dollar has increased significantly while still achieving a three-week high against the euro. This evolution was triggered by the fact that many market participants are awaiting adoption by American lawmakers agreement, which will help to increase public debt limit.

Value of the yen rose against the euro and the dollar on concern that in February and March the U.S. Treasury exhausts its "extraordinary resources" in the amount of 200 billion dollars, which will be used to finance the preservation of the government. Recall that the 31 December 2012 the country has reached its debt ceiling, which is $ 16,400 billion

The dollar index (DXY), which is used to track the value of the dollar against the currencies of six U.S. partner, has reached three-week high, rising at the same time by 0.5% (to 80.229).

At the same time, economists Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc said that according to their forecasts, the U.S. currency fell to the end of the year to $ 1.19 per euro by year-end.

Meanwhile, according to JPMorgan, the index currency G7, which is calculated as the average of the last three months, fell to 7.54, while reaching its lowest level since Dec. 21. Note that the decline makes investments in currencies with higher interest rates more attractive. Note that last year the average value of the index was 9.23.

The Australian dollar has returned all its previously lost ground against the U.S. dollar after a report showed U.S. private company in December added more jobs than expected in December. Note that, according to data from ADP, the number of workers increased by 215,000, from a revised upward rate in November at 148,000, as well as the expectations at around 140,000.

Euro-area stocks declined from a 17- month high amid concern a budget deal will fail to reduce the U.S. government’s fiscal deficit. Swiss shares rallied after the New Year holiday.

K+S AG (SDF) retreated 3.5 percent after Exane BNP Paribas lowered its price forecast for the potash maker’s shares. UBS AG (UBSN) and Cie. Financiere Richemont SA each rallied more than 4 percent, leading Swiss stocks higher. Alcatel-Lucent SA (ALU) climbed 9.8 percent as Credit Suisse Group AG raised its recommendation on the maker of telecommunication equipment.

The Euro Stoxx 50 Index of the euro area’s biggest companies fell 0.4 percent to 2,701.22 at the close of trading. The broader Stoxx Europe 600 Index added 0.5 percent to its highest since February 2011 as the Swiss

National benchmark indexes gained in 15 of the 18 western- European markets.

FTSE 100 6,047.34 +19.97 +0.33% CAC 40 3,721.17 -12.76 -0.34% DAX 7,756.44 -22.34 -0.29%

K+S slid 3.5 percent to 33.89 euros. Exane cut its share- price forecast 5 percent to 29.50 euros and left its recommendation at underperform, meaning investors should sell the shares. Citigroup Inc. lowered its rating to neutral from buy, saying that a deal by U.S. and Canadian companies to supply potash to China was negative for European producers.

UBS, Switzerland’s biggest bank, jumped 4.1 percent to 14.85 Swiss francs. Richemont, the world’s second-largest luxury-goods company, rallied 5.7 percent to 75.50 francs. Swatch Group AG (UHR) climbed 6.4 percent to 490.50 francs. Sales of goods including jewelry and watches in Hong Kong jumped 14 percent in November from a year earlier, the city’s government said today. They declined 2.9 percent in October.

Alcatel-Lucent surged 9.8 percent to 1.16 euros after Credit Suisse upgraded the stock to neutral from underperform. Alcatel’s debt agreement means the company will maintain sufficient gross cash to remain a viable business in the long term, Credit Suisse wrote in a note.

Next Plc (NXT) advanced 2.7 percent to 3,873 pence. The U.K.’s second-largest clothing retailer said full-year profit will be 611 million pounds ($987 million) to 625 million pounds. The company had forecast pretax profit for the fiscal year ending this month of 590 million pounds to 620 million pounds.

Wacker Chemie AG (WCH) rose 5.1 percent to 53.47 euros after UBS added the German maker of polysilicon to the list of its most preferred chemical stocks in Europe. The price of the material used to make solar panels climbed, SK Securities Co. said.

Transocean Ltd. surged 11 percent to 44.62 francs, its biggest jump since September 2011, after a person familiar with the matter said the offshore drilling-rig operator will settle all federal claims over the 2010 Deepwater Horizon explosion and subsequent oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico for about $1.5 billion.

Today, oil prices retreated from three-month high reached yesterday, which was due to published reports, which showed that the number of applications for unemployment benefits in the U.S. last week rose more than expected. At the same time, the pressure on oil has concerns that the new U.S. budget will not lead to a sufficiently rapid reduction in the deficit. Note that during the current session, prices showed their first decline in three days.

We also recall that last night, U.S. President Barack Obama signed a budget bill, according to which overrides the automatic tax increases and spending cuts. However, the rating agency Moody, that cutting spending is not enough to avoid a sovereign downgrade.

In addition, the Agency noted that the ratio of U.S. debt to gross domestic product is likely to peak at 80% in 2014 and may remain around this level until the end of the decade.

Note also that many market participants are waiting for tomorrow's report on stocks, which provided the Ministry of Energy. It is predicted that oil reserves fell by 500,000 barrels to 370.6 million level in the seven days ended Dec. 28.

Recall that the report this week will be presented to two days later than usual because of the celebration of the New Year.

February futures price of U.S. light crude oil WTI (Light Sweet Crude Oil) fell to 93.11 dollars a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

February futures price for North Sea petroleum mix of mark Brent rose by 0.18 dollars to $ 112.30 a barrel on the London Stock Exchange ICE Futures Europe.

In today's trading gold is trading with a moderate decrease, while the last two weeks prices have reached a maximum. As economists say, today's decline was due to the sharp appreciation of the dollar and the slowdown in the stock markets. At the same time, many investors looked forward to the next budget negotiations in the U.S., as the euphoria associated with the vote on the "budget cliff" has disappeared.

Meanwhile, the price of gold is at the present employment data from ADP, which showed that private sector employers to increase jobs than expected in December.

Note also the gold price for the importers in India fell slightly today, which was caused by rumors of a tax on imports, but despite this, the weak rupiah helped keep prices near their highest level in two weeks.

Also today, the Istanbul Gold Exchange reported that gold imports in Turkey increased by 57% last year to 120.78 tonnes from 79.7 tonnes in 2011.

February futures price of gold on the COMEX is now 1679.80 an ounce.

ISM New York climbed to 54.3 in December, up from 52.5 a month ago.

The latest reading reflects a 5-month high.

"Purchase volume expanded more quickly, while employment contracted for a second time in three month," wrote the ISM.

U.S. stock futures fell amid increasing speculation the U.S. budget deal won’t reduce the deficit fast enough.
Global Stocks:
Hang Seng 23,398.6+86.62 +0.37%
FTSE  6,032.73+5.36 +0.09%
CAC  3,717.09-16.84 -0.45%
DAX 7,760.54-18.24 -0.23%

Stock markets in Japan and China were closed today.
Crude oil $92.85 -0.29%
Gold  $1678.70 -0.60%

The single currency has retreated from earlier reached lows at 1.3081 after the publication of controversial statistics on the labor market in the U.S.. In December, employment in the U.S. according to ADP increased by 215 thousand vs. 133 thousand and the previous value of 118 thousand separate report showed that the number of initial claims for unemployment benefits rose more than expected, to 372 thousand compared to 362 thousand a week earlier.

The EUR / USD ran into support at 1.3095 and is currently trading around 1.3110. Near term resistance is at $ 1.3170 (high of the European session.)

Upgrades:
Cisco Systems (CSCO) upgraded to Outperform at RBC Capital Mkts; ests raised and tgt raised to $24 from $21
JPMorgan Chase (JPM) upgraded to Mkt Underperform  from Mkt Perform at JMP Securities.
Bank of America (BAC) upgraded to Mkt Underperform  from Mkt Perform at JMP Securities.
Citigroup (C) upgraded to Mkt Underperform  from Mkt Perform at JMP Securities.
Morgan Stanley (MS) upgraded to Mkt Underperform  from Mkt Perform at JMP Securities.
Goldman Sachs (GS) upgraded to Mkt Underperform  from Mkt Perform at JMP Securities.
Downgrades:
UnitedHealth (UNH) downgraded to Hold from Buy at Deutsche Bank.

EUR/USD $1.3200, $1.3225, $1.3235, $1.3300, $1.3380

EUR/GBP stg0.8150

AUD/USD $1.0500, $1.0525

USD/JPY Y86.00, Y86.50, Y87.00

USD/CHF Chf0.9130

GBP/USD $1.6200, $1.6335

EUR/JPY Y115.00

07:00United Kingdom Nationwide house price indexDecember 0.0%+0.1%-0.1%

07:00United Kingdom Nationwide house price index, y/yDecember -1.2%-1.0%-1.0%

08:00Switzerland KOF Leading IndicatorDecember 1.501.391.28

08:30Switzerland Manufacturing PMIDecember 48.548.749.5

08:55Germany Unemployment ChangeDecember 5113

08:55Germany Unemployment Rate s.a.December 6.9%6.9%6.9%

09:00Eurozone M3 money supply, adjusted y/yNovember +3.9%+3.8%+3.8%

09:30United Kingdom PMI ConstructionDecember 49.349.648.7

09:30United Kingdom BOE Credit Conditions SurveyIV quarter

The dollar rose to its strongest level in almost three weeks against the euro on speculation U.S. policy makers will struggle to reach agreement on raising the nation’s debt limit, underpinning demand for the safest assets.

Japan’s yen appreciated at least 0.3 percent against all its 16 major counterparts amid concern the U.S. Treasury will exhaust what it called “extraordinary” measures to keep funding the government by late February or early March after the nation hit its $16.4 trillion debt ceiling on Dec. 31. The IMF said in a statement yesterday that “the economic recovery would have been derailed” without the action by the U.S. Congress.

The pound declined against the dollar as a report showed house prices fell last month, signaling the U.K.’s economic recovery will be slow. The average cost of a home in Britain slipped 0.1 percent in December, Nationwide Building Society said today. The median prediction was for prices to remain unchanged. The pound dropped 0.6 percent to $1.6151, after reaching $1.6381 yesterday, the strongest level since Aug. 30, 2011.

EUR / USD: during the European session the pair fell to a new intraday low of $ 1.3093

GBP / USD: during the European session the pair fell to a new intraday low of $ 1.6144

USD / JPY: during the European session the pair fell to a new intraday low of Y86.80

At 13:15 GMT the U.S. will change in the number of employees from ADP for December at 13:30 GMT - the number of initial claims for unemployment insurance, the number of repeated applications for unemployment benefits. At 19:00 GMT will be publication of the minutes of the Fed meeting. At 21:30 GMT the United States will change in the volume of crude oil, according to API. Finish the day at 22:30 GMT Australia data on the index of activity in the service sector of the AiG in December.

EUR/USD

Offers  $1.3280, $1.3250, $1.3235/40, $1.3200, $1.3165/70, $1.3140/50

Bids  $1.3050, $1.3015, $1.3000

GBP/USD

Offers  $1.6320, $1.6300, $1.6270/75, $1.6240/45

Bids  $1.6150, $1.6120, $1.6100, $1.6080/70

AUD/USD

Offers  $1.0600, $1.0550, $1.0520/25

Bids  $1.0465/50, $1.0450,$1.0405/00

EUR/JPY

Offers  Y116.00, Y115.50,Y115.00, Y114.85/90, Y114.40/45

Bids  Y113.00, Y113.20,Y113.00, Y112.50

USD/JPY

Offers  Y88.00, Y87.80/95, Y87.50

Bids  Y86.55/50, Y86.20, Y86.00

EUR/GBP

Offers  stg0.8200/05, stg0.8170/80, stg0.8115/20

Bids  stg0.8050, stg0.8020, stg0.8000

Euro-area stocks declined, retreating from a 17-month high, amid concern a budget deal will fail to reduce the U.S. government’s deficit, while Swiss shares rallied after the New Year holiday.

The U.S. House of Representatives passed the budget legislation on Jan. 1, breaking an impasse over how to prevent more than $600 billion in tax increases and spending cuts from coming into force. The agreement will delay by two months the automatic spending reductions. Republican lawmakers abandoned their efforts to add further reductions to the deal.

President Barack Obama signed the bill into law. Republicans are now planning to use the need to raise the $16.4 trillion debt ceiling to force Obama to accept cuts to entitlement programs such as Medicare.

K+S AG  retreated 2.3 percent after Exane BNP Paribas lowered its forecast for the company’s shares.

Alcatel-Lucent SA climbed 1 percent after Credit Suisse Group AG raised its recommendation on the maker of telecommunication equipment.

UBS, Switzerland’s biggest bank, jumped 3.8 percent to 14.81 Swiss francs. Richemont, the second-largest luxury-goods company, rallied 5.3 percent to 75.15 francs. Swatch Group AG the biggest watchmaker, climbed 4.2 percent to 480.50 francs.

Q4 unsecured h'hold credit available 6.6% vs -4.2% Q3

Rise in Q4 secured hhold credit biggest in survey history

rise Q4 corp cred availability biggest in survey history

AFT sold E7.993bln vs target E7.0bln-E8.0bln

- E1.63bln of 3.75% 2019 OAT; avg yield 1.32% (1.27%),cover 2.14 (2.77)

- E1.668bln of 3.50% 2020 OAT; avg yield 1.46% , cover 1.98

- E3.53bln of 2.25% 2022 OAT; avg yield 2.07% (2.22%),cover 1.72 (1.95)

- E1.165bln of 5.75% 2032 OAT; avg yield 2.84% , cover 2.24

EUR/USD $1.3200, $1.3225, $1.3235, $1.3300, $1.3380

EUR/GBP stg0.8150

AUD/USD $1.0500, $1.0525

USD/JPY Y86.00, Y86.50, Y87.00

USD/CHF Chf0.9130

GBP/USD $1.6200, $1.6335

Asian stocks rose, pushing a regional equities index to its highest level in 17 months, after an expansion of U.S. manufacturing and China’s services industries fueled optimism in the global economic recovery.

Nikkei 225 Closed

S&P/ASX 200 4,740.68 +34.74 +0.74%

Shanghai Composite Closed

Rio Tinto Group, the world’s second-largest mining company, climbed 2.4 percent in Sydney as metals prices rose.

China Communications Services Corp., a Beijing-based telecommunications support firm, gained 1.7 percent in Hong Kong.

Despite the sharp rise in the euro against the dollar in early trading, the single currency could not hold its positions, and showed a significant decline, which was caused by the weakening of risk appetite. In this regard, the euro is now trading down against the U.S. dollar. Such dynamics are observed, despite the agreement on the "budget cliff" that propelled the growth higher-yielding currencies such as the Australian dollar. Note that this may mean a change in the dynamics of the pair EUR / USD, as the rise in the stock market to raise capital from Europe to the U.S., which is pushing the dollar to strengthen. Meanwhile, taking into account the fact that the production data released were weak, uncertainty in Europe continues to remain, while the outlook for the United States have become more positive.

In addition, despite the strengthening of the pound to a 16-month high against the U.S. dollar, which was due to a significant increase in the index of business activity, and achieving them in December, the highest level in more than a year, the exchange rate has fallen sharply, as has also been associated with a reduction of positions in risky assets.

Meanwhile, all these factors have not been able to influence the proper value of the Japanese currency, which for the trading session, continues to trade in a narrow range. Note also that the current gap, which was seen at the opening of tenders was called the statement by the Prime Ministers of Japan Abe, who said that now the most important issue for his country is fighting the appreciation of the national currency. He added that to address this situation, you may need unlimited creation of money, which will stimulate economic growth and to achieve 2% inflation.

Asian stocks rose, heading for their highest close since August 2011, as the U.S. House of Representatives passed legislation averting some of $600 billion in automatic tax increases and spending cuts.

Nikkei 225 Closed

S&P/ASX 200 4,705.94 +56.99 +1.23%

Shanghai Composite Closed

Australian gold producer Newcrest Mining Ltd. added 3.6 percent as the precious metal climbed.

BHP Billiton Ltd., the world’s biggest mining company, advanced 2 percent in Sydney, leading gains among raw-material producers, after China’s manufacturing expanded for a third month.

Techtronic Industries Co., a maker of power tools that counts North America as its biggest market, gained 3.6 percent in Hong Kong as the Hang Seng Index headed for its best first session of the year since 2009.

European stocks rallied to the highest in 22 months as U.S. lawmakers passed a budget bill that avoided most scheduled tax increases threatening a recovery in the world’s largest economy.

Rio Tinto Group and Volkswagen AG (VOW) climbed at least 4 percent each to lead mining companies and automakers higher as Chinese manufacturing grew. ArcelorMittal gained the most in 11 weeks after selling a stake in its Canadian unit for $1.1 billion. BAE Systems Plc (BA/) soared 4 percent as the U.S. budget deal delayed defense spending cuts.

The Stoxx Europe 600 Index (SXXP) jumped 2 percent to 285.33 at the close of trading, the highest level since Feb. 28, 2011.

The number of shares changing hands in Stoxx 600 companies today was 29 percent higher than the 30-day average, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Germany’s DAX Index advanced 2.2 percent to a five-year high and the U.K.’s FTSE 100 (UKX) climbed above 6,000 for the first time since July 2011. The Swiss market was closed for a holiday.

Volkswagen, Europe’s biggest carmaker, climbed 4 percent to 179 euros. Porsche SE gained 3.1 percent to 63.61 euros and Bayerische Motoren Werke AG (BMW) added 4.1 percent to 75.93 euros.

ArcelorMittal (MT), the world’s biggest steelmaker, gained 4.5 percent to 13.51 euros, the largest increase since Oct. 17. China Steel Corp. and Posco led a group that agreed to pay $1.1 billion for a 15 percent stake in ArcelorMittal Mines Canada Inc. to secure supplies of iron ore.

BAE Systems climbed 4 percent to 350.5 pence. The U.K. military-aircraft manufacturer, which gets about 45 percent of revenue from the U.S., may benefit from the budget bill’s two- month delay to scheduled spending cuts to military programs.

A.P. Moeller-Maersk A/S advanced 4.4 percent to 44,480 kroner as the head of north Asia operations for its container shipping unit said trade between Asia and Europe will grow. Demand for trade on the Asia-Europe route is expected to grow until Lunar New Year in February as Chinese manufacturers produce and export more, Tim Smith said in a Bloomberg Television interview in Hong Kong today.

Beginning of the session significantly higher than the previous close of the trading day, the major stock indexes were able to continue their strengthening, thus ending the session near the maximum

Recall that the reason for today's optimism in the markets is the fact that the U.S. authorities were able to avoid the "budget cliff", taking on the eve of the relevant law.

However, the decision does not completely eliminate the problem, because it does not take into account the issue to reduce costs. To resolve the matter the ruling party of the USA, according to the agreements, have two more months. Against this background of uncertainty in the markets in the near future will continue.

Published statistics significant impact on the dynamics of trade was not there. Published data recorded growth of ISM manufacturing index in December to a level 50.7 points versus 49.5 points value of the November forecast and 50.2 points. In parallel to the data released by the cost of construction, which in November fell 0.3%. Expected growth rate of 0.6% after rising 1.4% in October.

All components of the index DOW grow. At the moment, the leader shares in Hewlett-Packard (HPQ, +5.19%) and Caterpillar (CAT, +4.16%).

Among the sectors of the S & P currently in the red is just the health sector (-0.9%). The maximum growth rate of 2.4% demonstrates the technology sector and the sector conglomerates.

At the close:

Dow +308.41 13,412.55 +2.35%

Nasdaq +92.75 3,112.26 +3.07%

S & P +36.23 1,462.42 +2.54%

00:00Japan Bank holiday-

00:00China Bank holiday-

01:00China Non-Manufacturing PMIDecember 55.656.1

The yen and dollar rose versus the euro as investors turned their focus to whether U.S. policy makers can reach an agreement to raise the nation’s debt limit.

The U.S. Treasury will probably exhaust what it called “extraordinary” measures by late February or early March to keep funding the government after the nation hit its $16.4 trillion debt ceiling on Dec. 31. The International Monetary Fund said yesterday that the U.S. economic recovery would have been derailed if the fiscal cliff issue had not been resolved. The Washington-based fund also said the U.S ought to raise the debt ceiling “expeditiously.”

ADP Research Institute may say today that companies in the U.S. added 140,000 workers in December, up from a 118,000 increase the prior month, according to the median estimate of economists surveyed by Bloomberg News. The data will be followed by a government report tomorrow projected to show payrolls rose 150,000 workers last month, the most since August.

The Japanese currency strengthened against all major counterparts amid signs it had been oversold. The yen’s 14-day relative-strength index fell to 24 against the euro and 18 versus the dollar. Readings below 30 signal that an asset price may be set to reverse course.

Japan’s markets are shut today for a holiday.

EUR/USD: during the Asian session the pair fell to $1.3125.

GBP/USD: during the Asian session the pair fell to $1.6200.

USD/JPY: during the Asian session, the pair traded in the range of Y87.10-35.

The main unemployment data from Germany is due at 0855GMT. UK data at 0700GMT sees the December House Price Index from the Nationwide, which is one of two main private sector house price surveys, the other being the Halifax - which will produce its December survey later in the month. Scheduled US data starts at 1200GMT with the weekly MBA Mortgage Index, followed at 1230GMT by Challenger Layoffs data and then at 1315GMT by the ADP National Employment Report. At 1330GMT, jobless claims are forecasted to rise 10,000 after dropping 12,000 in the previous week.

Change % Change Last

Oil$92.88-0.24-0.26%

Change % Change Last

Nikkei 225 Closed

S&P/ASX 200 4,705.94 +56.99 +1.23%

Shanghai Composite Closed

FTSE 100 6,027.37 +129.56 +2.20%

CAC 40 3,733.93 +92.86 +2.55%

DAX 7,778.78 +166.39 +2.19%

Dow +308.41 13,412.55 +2.35%

Nasdaq +92.75 3,112.26 +3.07%

S&P +36.23 1,462.42 +2.54%

(pare/closed(00:00 GMT +02:00)/change, %)

EUR/USD$1,3192 +0,04%

GBP/USD $1,6253 +0,56%

USD/CHF Chf0,9177 +0,25%

USD/JPY Y87,34 +1,37%

EUR/JPY Y115,16 +1,35%

GBP/JPY Y141,94 +1,92%

AUD/USD $1,0503 +1,27%

NZD/USD $0,8341 +1,45%

00:00Japan Bank holiday-

00:00China Bank holiday-

01:00China Non-Manufacturing PMIDecember 55.656.1

07:00United Kingdom Nationwide house price indexDecember 0.0%+0.1%

07:00United Kingdom Nationwide house price index, y/yDecember -1.2%-1.0%

08:00United Kingdom Halifax house price indexDecember 0.0%+0.1%

08:00United Kingdom Halifax house price index 3m Y/YDecember -1.2%

08:00Switzerland KOF Leading IndicatorDecember 1.501.39

08:30Switzerland Manufacturing PMIDecember 48.548.7

08:55Germany Unemployment ChangeDecember 511

08:55Germany Unemployment Rate s.a.December 6.9%6.9%

09:00Eurozone M3 money supply, adjusted y/yNovember +3.9%+3.8%

09:30United Kingdom PMI ConstructionDecember 49.349.6

09:30United Kingdom BOE Credit Conditions SurveyIV quarter

13:15U.S. ADP Employment ReportDecember 118134

13:30U.S. Initial Jobless Claims- 350356

19:00U.S. FOMC meeting minutes-