CFD Markets News and Forecasts — 18-02-2014

Hang Seng 22,570.12 +34.18 +0.15%

Shanghai Composite 2,119.07 -16.35 -0.77%

S&P 1,840.76 +2.13 +0.12%

NASDAQ  4,272.78 +28.76 +0.68%

Dow 16,130.4 -23.99 -0.15%   

FTSE 6,796.43 +60.43 +0.90%

CAC 4,330.71 -4.46 -0.10%

EUR/USD $1,3758 +0,38%

GBP/USD $1,6682 -0,18%

USD/CHF Chf0,8878 -0,36%

USD/JPY Y102,35 +0,43%

EUR/JPY Y140,81 +1,04%

GBP/JPY Y170,73 +0,25%

AUD/USD $0,9025 -0,07%

NZD/USD $0,8306 -0,72%

USD/CAD C$1,0946 -0,16%

00:30 Australia Wage Price Index, q/q Quarter IV +0.5%     +0.7%     

00:30 Australia Wage Price Index, y/y Quarter IV +2.7%     +2.6%     

04:30 Japan All Industry Activity Index, m/m December +0.3% +0.2%     

05:00 Japan BoJ monthly economic report February             

09:30 United Kingdom Average Earnings, 3m/y December +0.9% +0.9%     

09:30 United Kingdom Average earnings ex bonuses, 3 m/y December +0.9% +0.9%     

09:30 United Kingdom Bank of England Minutes                 

09:30 United Kingdom Claimant count January -24.0 -18.3     

09:30 United Kingdom Claimant Count Rate January 3.7%         

09:30 United Kingdom ILO Unemployment Rate December 7.1% 7.1%     

10:00 Eurozone Construction Output, m/m December -0.6%         

10:00 Eurozone Construction Output, y/y December -1.7%         

10:00 Switzerland Credit Suisse ZEW Survey February 36.4 40.0     

13:30 Canada Wholesale Sales, m/m December 0.0% -0.5%     

13:30 U.S. Building Permits, mln January 0.986 0.973     

13:30 U.S. Housing Starts, mln January 0.999 0.943     

13:30 U.S. PPI, m/m January +0.4% +0.6%     

13:30 U.S. PPI, y/y January +1.2% +1.2%     

13:30 U.S. PPI excluding food and energy, m/m January +0.3% +0.4%     

13:30 U.S. PPI excluding food and energy, Y/Y January +1.4% +1.4%     

19:00 U.S. FOMC meeting minutes                 

21:00 New Zealand ANZ Job Advertisements (MoM) January -0.7%         

21:30 U.S. API Crude Oil Inventories February +2.1         

21:45 New Zealand PPI Input (QoQ) Quarter IV +2.2% +0.9%     

21:45 New Zealand PPI Output (QoQ) Quarter IV +3.3%         

The euro has risen sharply against the U.S. dollar after the data the New York Fed were weaker than expected. Report of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York showed that the producers of New York reported that business conditions deteriorated in February , but still remain favorable . Manufacturing index fell in February to 4.48 to 12.51 in January. January's value was the highest since May 2012 . Index values ​​above zero indicate expanding activity . Economists had expected the index to decline only to 9.9 . Subindexes Fed New York showed mixed trends . The new orders index fell to -0.21 from 10.98 in January , the shipments index fell to 2.13 from 15.52 . Demand for labor in the meantime has not changed . The employment index fell to 11.25 from 12.20 , and the workweek index rose to 3.75 from 1.22 .

In turn , the latest data from the National Association of Home Builders showed that the level of confidence among builders significantly deteriorated in the current month , which was due to severe weather conditions , worker shortages and the limited availability of land , which is another sign of weakening momentum for the market. According to the report , housing market index fell in February to the level of 46 points , compared with 56 points in the last month . Many experts expect that the value of this indicator will remain unchanged. We add that the last result was the lowest since May, when the index was at 44 points. Recall also that the value above 50 indicates that more builders assess conditions as good.

Pound dropped significantly against the dollar after data showed that the UK inflation rate last month fell below the target value of the Bank of England , which is fixed for the first time in the last four years. The latter result confirms the message from the Bank of England, there is no reason to raise interest rates .

According to the report , consumer prices rose by 1.9 per cent per annum in January, compared with an increase of 2.0 percent in December , while showing the weakest growth since November 2009 . Economists had expected inflation to remain at 2.0 percent . Add that up to December last year, the annual inflation rate exceeded the target of the Bank of England at the level of 2 percent every month since December 2009 , undermining the purchasing power of households and making greater decline in living political issue ahead of elections next year.

The main measure of inflation , which excludes prices of energy , food, alcohol and tobacco increased by 1.6 percent in January compared with the same month last year and an increase of 1.7 percent in December , recording the smallest increase since June 2009 . Compared with the previous month , the CPI fell in January by 0.6 percent, which was unchanged compared to December , and it turned out as expected .

The yen fell sharply earlier against the U.S. dollar , which was associated with the Bank of Japan's decision to increase the monetary base by 60-70 trillion yen ( 686 billion dollars). Central Bank doubled lending program until 7 trillion . yen to support the economy. This doubling of lending is seen as dovish signal. Ie regulator is likely to further weaken the ready and their policy as it seeks to maintain liquidity volumes . In addition, the Bank of Japan extended periods of both programs for the year. Thus , the central bank kept the asset purchases unchanged, but decided to implement additional stimulus in the coming months . Regulator still aims to achieve the inflation target of 2 % and intends to achieve an economic breakthrough . The decision was taken by the members of the Monetary Policy Committee unanimously.

In a subsequent speech, the Central Bank Mr. Kuroda said that the program will continue buying bonds in the amount of 6.8 trillion . yen monthly . "We have dramatically increased the efficiency of our mechanism through programs of qualitative and quantitative easing, and we just stocked it with wheels for improved movement," - he said. He also expressed confidence that the latest GDP figures show an improvement in the economy (even though they are not significantly short of expectations ) , and said that in the case of risks materializing the Central Bank has the potential to modify the necessary monetary policy.

European stocks were little changed, after two days of gains, as a measure of German investor confidence fell more than forecast and the Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s general economic index missed estimates.

German investor confidence fell for a second month in February. The ZEW Center for European Economic Research in Mannheim said its index of investor and analyst expectations, which aims to predict economic developments six months in advance, slid to 55.7 from 61.7 in January, after reaching a seven-year high of 62 in December. Economists had forecast a decline to 61.5, according to a Bloomberg News survey.

A report today showed manufacturing in New York, northern New Jersey and southern Connecticut slowed this month. The Fed Bank of New York’s general economic index fell to 4.48 in February from 12.5 in January. Economists in a Bloomberg News survey predicted the index would decline to 8.5. Positive readings mean that activity expanded.

National benchmark indexes retreated in 12 of the 18 western-European markets today. France’s CAC 40 fell 0.1 percent, Germany’s DAX rose less than 0.1 percent, while the U.K.’s FTSE 100 added 0.9 percent.

Inditex lost 4 percent to 105.15 euros, its lowest price since September. Citigroup cut the owner of the Zara chain to neutral from buy and lowered its 2015 pre-tax earnings estimate by 3 percent, citing negative foreign exchange effects.

Centrica slid 1.3 percent to 314.4 pence. UBS lowered its recommendation on the Windsor, United Kingdom-based company to sell from neutral, saying potential political intervention may hurt its ability to write long-term contracts and reduce investment confidence. U.K. Energy Secretary Ed Davey on Feb. 10 said he asked the regulator to investigate whether the former state monopoly is profiting from too-high tariffs.

Alstom SA fell 3.8 percent to 20.18 euros. The French government has appointed an unnamed group of consultants to study the train and power-equipment maker’s market position and its strategic options, newspaper Les Echos reported, citing an unidentified person in government.

Hochtief AG climbed 4.7 percent to 62.74 euros. Goldman Sachs raised the German builder controlled by Spain’s Actividades de Construccion & Servicios SA to buy from neutral, citing its recent performance lagging its peers and the possibility of a share buyback.

West Texas Intermediate crude rose to the highest level in four months on speculation that inventories in Cushing, Oklahoma, decreased last week and as cold weather boosted fuel demand.

Prices climbed as much as 1.3 percent. Supplies at Cushing, the delivery point for WTI futures, probably dropped for a third week, according to analysts surveyed by Bloomberg. A second storm in three days has brought more snow to the U.S. Northeast and mid-Atlantic, bolstering the use of distillate fuels, including heating oil and diesel.

WTI for March delivery increased $1.04, or 1 percent, to $101.34 a barrel at 10:39 a.m. on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Prices touched $101.62 a barrel, the highest level since Oct. 18. They have rallied 3.9 percent this month. The volume of all futures traded was 35 percent above the 100-day average. Floor trading was closed yesterday for the U.S. Presidents Day holiday.

Brent for April settlement rose 41 cents, or 0.4 percent, to $109.59 a barrel on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange. Volume was 44 percent below the 100-day average. The European benchmark grade was at a premium of $8.52 to WTI for the same month. The spread was $8.95 on Feb. 14, the widest in a week based on closing prices.

Gold prices keep rising and near the peak of 3.5 months due to the weak dollar and concerns over global economic growth .

Interest in gold , which is considered a low-risk investment of rose as investors saw that cold in the U.S. affect economic growth , and China's growth is slowing.

Surcharge 99.99 fine gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange fell to $ 4 per ounce to the spot price in London , compared with $ 7 on Monday . According to the World Gold Council , the demand in the physical markets in China and India this year will be approximately 1,000 tons , and last year the world gold consumption decreased by 15 percent due to the outflow of funds backed by gold exchange-traded funds .

Indian Finance Minister said on Monday that he would think about the easing of restrictions on the import of gold , but do not allow to grow the country's current account deficit . Last year, India has imposed restrictions on gold imports to reduce the trade deficit .

Global gold demand in 2013 fell by 15 % to 3,756 tonnes compared with 2012 due to lower investment demand doubled and central banks purchases of precious metals on third. This is stated in the review of the World Gold Council (World Gold Council) - Gold Demand Trends.

In value terms, demand fell by 28% to 170.422 billion dollars, in particular by reducing the average gold price by 15% compared with 2012 to 1411 dollars per ounce.

The recent drop in gold prices has caused a significant increase in demand, especially from the largest consumers - India and China.

Demand for gold in China by the end of 2013 rose by 32% to 1.12 tons totaling 51.6 billion dollars. In India, the demand also increased by 13% to 975 tons for a total amount of 44.7 billion dollars.

Gold mining in the world in 2013 increased by 5% to 3 tons. Global supply decreased by 2% to 4.34 tonnes mainly due to lower secondary production by 14 % to 1.37 tons.

The cost of the April gold futures on the COMEX today rose to $ 1332.40 per ounce.

U.S. stock futures were little changed, as data showed the pace of manufacturing in the New York region slowed more than forecast.

Global markets:

Nikkei 14,843.24 +450.13 +3.13%

Hang Seng 22,587.72 +51.78 +0.23%

Shanghai Composite 2,119.07 -16.35 -0.77%

FTSE 6,761.62 +25.62 +0.38%

CAC 4,325.1 -10.07 -0.23%

DAX 9,651.29 -5.47 -0.06%

Crude oil $101.47 (+1.12%)

Gold $1318.40 (-0.02%).

USD/JPY 101.45, Y101.75, Y102.25/30, Y102.50, Y102.75/80 Y103.00, Y103.15

EUR/JPY Y142.00

EUR/USD $1.3675

GBP/USD $1.6500, $1.6650, $1.6700

EUR/GBP stg0.8150, stg0.8175, stg0.8195, stg0.8240, stg0.8280

EUR/CHF Chf1.2200, Chf1.2250

AUD/USD $0.9000, $0.9025, $0.9100

AUD/JPY Y93.25

NZD/USD $0.8225, $0.8320

USD/CAD C$1.0940, C$1.0965, C$1.0980, C$1.1050, C$1.1150

Data

00:30 Australia RBA Meeting's Minutes

03:00 Japan BoJ Interest Rate Decision 0.10% 0.10% 0.10%

03:00 Japan Bank of Japan Monetary Base Target 270 270 270

03:00 Japan BoJ Monetary Policy Statement

07:30 Japan BOJ Press Conference

09:00 Eurozone Current account, adjusted, bln December 23.3 Revised From 23.5 19.8 21.3

09:00 Eurozone ECOFIN Meetings

09:30 United Kingdom Retail Price Index, m/m January +0.5% -0.5% -0.3%

09:30 United Kingdom Retail prices, Y/Y January +2.7% +2.7% +2.8%

09:30 United Kingdom RPI-X, Y/Y January +2.8% +2.8%

09:30 United Kingdom Producer Price Index - Output (MoM) January 0.0% +0.2% +0.3%

09:30 United Kingdom Producer Price Index - Output (YoY) January +1.0% +0.8% +0.9%

09:30 United Kingdom Producer Price Index - Input (MoM) January +0.1% -0.4% -0.9%

09:30 United Kingdom Producer Price Index - Input (YoY) January -1.2% -2.9% -3.1%

09:30 United Kingdom HICP, m/m January +0.4% -0.6% -0.6%

09:30 United Kingdom HICP, Y/Y January +2.0% +2.0% +1.9%

09:30 United Kingdom HICP ex EFAT, Y/Y January +1.7% +1.9% +1.6%

10:00 Eurozone ZEW Economic Sentiment February 73.3 73.9 68.5

10:00 Germany ZEW Survey - Economic Sentiment February 61.7 61.3 55.7

The euro exchange rate rose slightly against the U.S. dollar . After the initial reaction to the mixed results of ZEW, the pair was able to gain momentum and growth in the area to recover the maximum values. Analysts say that in recent years to assess the current situation has become a good leading indicator of GDP. In this sense, today's sharp rise in this component was the good news for the economy, which increases the likelihood that in the first months of this year, it should gain momentum. Recall that the report showed that the index of sentiment in the business environment fell in February to the level of 55.7 points compared to 61.7 points in January . Experts expect that the value of this indicator reduced only to the level of 61.3 points. However , despite the decline , the index remained well above its historical average level of 24.5 points. In addition , the data showed that the rate that evaluates opinion on the current economic situation , rose to 50 points in February from 41.2 in January , reaching its highest level since August 2011 . Expectations were at 44 points. We also add that for the eurozone sentiment index fell in the business environment 4.8 points and reached the level of 68.5 points. Meanwhile, the index of the current situation in the euro zone improved by 8 points - to the level of 40.2 points.

It should also be noted that many market participants are waiting for the U.S. data. Experts expect that the index of activity in the manufacturing sector of the New York Fed declined in February , after the rose in January to its highest level since May 2012 .

Pound dropped significantly against the dollar after data showed that the UK inflation rate last month fell below the target value of the Bank of England , which is fixed for the first time in the last four years. The latter result confirms the message from the Bank of England, there is no reason to raise interest rates .

According to the report , consumer prices rose by 1.9 per cent per annum in January, compared with an increase of 2.0 percent in December , while showing the weakest growth since November 2009 . Economists had expected inflation to remain at 2.0 percent . Add that up to December last year, the annual inflation rate exceeded the target of the Bank of England at the level of 2 percent every month since December 2009 , undermining the purchasing power of households and making greater decline in living political issue ahead of elections next year.

The main measure of inflation , which excludes prices of energy , food, alcohol and tobacco increased by 1.6 percent in January compared with the same month last year and an increase of 1.7 percent in December , recording the smallest increase since June 2009 . Compared with the previous month , the CPI fell in January by 0.6 percent, which was unchanged compared to December , and it turned out as expected .

The yen fell sharply against the U.S. dollar, which was associated with the Bank of Japan's decision to increase the monetary base by 60-70 trillion yen ( 686 billion dollars). Central Bank doubled lending program until 7 trillion . yen to support the economy. This doubling of lending is seen as dovish signal. Ie regulator is likely to further weaken the ready and their policy as it seeks to maintain liquidity volumes . In addition, the Bank of Japan extended periods of both programs for the year. Thus , the central bank kept the asset purchases unchanged, but decided to implement additional stimulus in the coming months . Regulator still aims to achieve the inflation target of 2 % and intends to achieve an economic breakthrough . The decision was taken by the members of the Monetary Policy Committee unanimously.

In a subsequent speech, the Central Bank Mr. Kuroda said that the program will continue buying bonds in the amount of 6.8 trillion . yen monthly .

"We have dramatically increased the efficiency of our mechanism through programs of qualitative and quantitative easing, and we just stocked it with wheels for improved movement," - he said. He also expressed confidence that the latest GDP figures show an improvement in the economy (even though they are not significantly short of expectations ) , and said that in the case of risks materializing the Central Bank has the potential to modify the necessary monetary policy.

EUR / USD: during the European session, the pair rose to $ 1.3735

GBP / USD: during the European session, the pair fell to $ 1.6653

USD / JPY: during the European session, the pair rose to Y102.73, then retreated slightly

At 13:30 GMT , Canada declares volume of transactions with foreign securities in December. At 13:30 GMT the U.S. manufacturing index will be released Empire Manufacturing for February. At 14:00 GMT the United States will announce on net purchases of long-term U.S. securities by foreign investors and the total net purchases of U.S. securities by foreign investors in December. At 15:00 GMT the United States will present housing market index from the NAHB for February. At 23:00 GMT Australia will release the index of leading economic indicators from the Conference Board in December.

EUR/USD

Offers $1.3900, $1.3850/60, $1.3800-20, $1.3770/80, $1.3750

Bids $1.3695, $1.3665/55, $1.3640, $1.3625/20

GBP/USD

Offers $1.6759, $1.6740/50, $1.6741, $1.6721, $1.6698-708

Bids  $1.6650/35, $1.6600, $1.6570/65, $1.6555/50

AUD/USD

Offers $0.9180, $0.9145/50, $0.9120, $0.9100, $0.9085, $0.9045/50

Bids $0.9000, $0.8985/80, $0.8950, $0.8910/00, $0.8880

EUR/JPY

Offers Y142.20, Y142.00, Y141.50, Y140.95/00, Y140.86

Bids Y140.10/00, Y139.80, Y139.55/50, Y139.20/00

USD/JPY

Offers Y103.45/50, Y103.20, Y102.90/00, 102.74/86

Bids Y102.25/20, Y102.00, Y101.76, Y101.20, Y101.00

EUR/GBP

Offers stg0.8300/05, stg0.8280, stg0.8265/70, stg0.8245/50

Bids stg0.8150, stg0.8120, stg0.8100, stg0.8050

European stocks declined, after two days of gains, as a measure of German investor confidence fell more than forecast. U.S. stock-index futures were little changed, while Asian shares rose.

The Stoxx Europe 600 Index slipped 0.5 percent. The benchmark gauge rose yesterday amid a rally in real estate and mining shares.

German investor confidence fell for a second month in February. The ZEW Center for European Economic Research in Mannheim said its index of investor and analyst expectations, which aims to predict economic developments six months in advance, slid to 55.7 from 61.7 in January, after reaching a seven-year high of 62 in December. Economists forecast a decline to 61.5, according to the median of  estimates.

Data at 13:30 GMT may show the Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s general business index fell this month after climbing in January to the highest level since May 2012, according to the median estimate of analysts.

Inditex lost 3.1 percent to 106.20 euros, its lowest price since September. Citigroup cut its rating on the owner of the Zara chain to neutral from buy and lowered its 2015 pre-tax earnings estimate by 3 percent, citing negative foreign exchange effects.

Centrica slumped 3.2 percent to 308.1 pence. UBS lowered its recommendation on the Windsor, United Kingdom-based company to sell from neutral, saying potential political intervention may hurt its ability to write long-term contracts and reduce investment confidence.

Alstom SA (ALO) fell 4.9 percent to 19.95 euros. The French government has appointed an unnamed group of consultants to study the train and power-equipment maker’s market position and its strategic options, newspaper Les Echos reported, citing an unidentified person in government.

Hochtief AG climbed 4.4 percent to 62.56 euros. Goldman Sachs Group Inc. raised the German builder controlled by Spain’s Actividades de Construccion & Servicios SA to buy from neutral, citing its recent performance lagging its peers and the possibility of a share buyback.

FTSE 100 6,734.84 -1.16 -0.02%

CAC 40 4,314.57 -20.60 -0.48%

DAX 9,635.41 -21.35 -0.22%

USD/JPY 101.45, Y101.75, Y102.25/30, Y102.50, Y102.75/80 Y103.00, Y103.15

EUR/JPY Y142.00

EUR/USD $1.3675

GBP/USD $1.6500, $1.6650, $1.6700

EUR/GBP stg0.8150, stg0.8175, stg0.8195, stg0.8240, stg0.8280

EUR/CHF Chf1.2200, Chf1.2250

AUD/USD $0.9000, $0.9025, $0.9100

AUD/JPY Y93.25

NZD/USD $0.8225, $0.8320

USD/CAD C$1.0940, C$1.0965, C$1.0980, C$1.1050, C$1.1150

Asian stocks rose, with the regional benchmark index poised for a three-week high, after the Bank of Japan maintained unprecedented asset purchases and boosted lending programs. Chinese shares fell as the central bank drained liquidity from the financial system.

Nikkei 225 14,843.24 +450.13 +3.13%

S&P/ASX 200 5,392.82 +9.93 +0.18%

Shanghai Composite 2,115.14 -20.28 -0.95%

Nissan Motor Co., a carmaker that gets about 80 percent of sales outside Japan, increased 2.1 percent in Tokyo as the yen slid.

BHP Billiton Ltd., the world’s biggest mining company, rose 2 percent in Sydney after first-half profit jumped more than expected.

Industrial & Commercial Bank of China Ltd. fell 0.8 percent in Hong Kong, pacing declines among Chinese lenders.

00:30 Australia RBA Meeting's Minutes

03:00 Japan BoJ Interest Rate Decision 0.10% 0.10% 0.10%

03:00 Japan Bank of Japan Monetary Base Target 270 270 270

03:00 Japan BoJ Monetary Policy Statement

07:30 Japan BOJ Press Conference

The yen slid against the dollar after the Bank of Japan boosted lending programs and said it will continue monetary easing until stable 2 percent inflation is achieved. The BOJ doubled a funding tool to 7 trillion yen ($68 billion) and said individual banks could borrow twice as much low-interest money as previously under a second facility. It left unchanged a pledge to expand the monetary base by 60 trillion to 70 trillion yen per year.

The U.S. currency remained lower against the euro before a report today analysts forecast will show manufacturing in the New York region slowed this month. The Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s general economic index probably fell this month after climbing in January to the highest since May 2012, according to the median estimate of analysts polled by Bloomberg before today’s data.

The Australian dollar rose to a one-month high after the Reserve Bank said there were further signs easy policy and a weak currency were having an impact. In Australia, minutes of the RBA’s meeting this month released today showed officials saw signs of record-low borrowing costs and a lower exchange rate helping growth. “If the economy evolved broadly as expected, the most prudent course would likely be a period of stability in interest rates,” according to the minutes.

EUR / USD: during the Asian session, the pair rose to $ 1.3715

GBP / USD: during the Asian session, the pair rose to $ 1.6730

USD / JPY: during the Asian session, the pair rose to Y102.65

Attention turns to UK inflation data at 0930GMT (CPI, PPI, RPI). The market will be awaiting German and euro-zone ZEW Economic Sentiment release later today for fresh clues.