CFD Markets News and Forecasts — 20-02-2014

Hang Seng 22,394.08 -270.44 -1.19%

Shanghai Composite 2,138.78 -3.77 -0.18%   

S&P 500 1,839.78 +11.03 +0.60%

NASDAQ 4,267.55 +29.59 +0.70%

Dow 16,133.23 +92.67 +0.58%   

FTSE 6,812.99 +16.28 +0.24%

CAC 4,355.49 +14.39 +0.33%    

DAX 9,618.85 -41.20 -0.43%

EUR/USD $1,3717 -0,11%

GBP/USD $1,6649 -0,18%

USD/CHF Chf0,8893 +0,11%

USD/JPY Y102,26 -0,04%

EUR/JPY Y140,29 -0,14%

GBP/JPY Y170,26 -0,20%

AUD/USD $0,9003 +0,17%

NZD/USD $0,8303 +0,40%

USD/CAD C$1,1096 +0,16%

(time / country / index / period / previous value / forecast)

00:00 G20 G20 Meetings                 

09:30 United Kingdom Retail Sales (MoM) January +2.6% -0.9%     

09:30 United Kingdom Retail Sales (YoY) January +5.3% +5.0%     

09:30 United Kingdom PSNB, bln January 10.4 -9.3     

13:30 Canada Retail Sales, m/m     December +0.6% -0.5%     

13:30 Canada Retail Sales ex Autos, m/m December +0.4% +0.2%     

13:30 Canada Consumer Price Index m/m January -0.2% +0.1%     

13:30 Canada Consumer price index, y/y January +1.2% +1.3%     

13:30 Canada Bank of Canada Consumer Price Index Core, m/m January -0.4% +0.1%     

13:30 Canada Bank of Canada Consumer Price Index Core, y/y January +1.3% +1.3%     

15:00 U.S. Existing Home Sales January 4.87 4.73     

18:45 U.S. FOMC Member Richard Fisher Speaks

Euro fell against the U.S. dollar , which was associated with the release of data on PMI. The decline began after a report showed that private sector activity in France has declined at a faster pace in February , which stood at the head of a marked deterioration in service sector activity . On a seasonally adjusted composite index of activity that assesses the effectiveness of the manufacturing and service sectors , fell to two-month low in February , and was 47.6 points, compared to 48.9 points in January . Recall that the value of this index below 50 indicate a contraction in activity in the sector. Meanwhile, it became known that the purchasing managers' index for the manufacturing sector fell to 48.5 in February from 49.3 in the year. Economists expected the index to rise to 49.6 . At the same time , the activity indicator for the service sector fell to 46.9 , compared with 48.9 in January. Expectations were at 49.5 .

Pressure also provided data for the euro area , which showed that the private sector economy continued its expansion in February , increased this streak to eight consecutive months, but showed weaker results than predicted by many economists . According to the report , the composite index , which measures the efficiency in the manufacturing sector and services totaled 52.7 points in February , which was slightly lower than January's 31 -month high at 52.9 points . Economists had expected the figure was 53.1 points . Studies also that the Purchasing Managers Index for the manufacturing sector fell to 53 points in February to 54 points in January . Expectations were at the level of 54.2 points . Meanwhile, the activity indicator in the service sector rose to 51.7 from 51.6 at the beginning of the year. Economists expected the index to rise to 51.9 .

Later euro retreated from the lows after the block statistics from the U.S. . Recent data from the U.S. Labor Department showed that the number of applications for unemployment benefits fell slightly last week , which is another sign of improvement in the labor market. According to the report , the seasonally adjusted number of initial claims for unemployment benefits fell for the week ending February 15 , 3 thousand , reaching at this level of 336 thousand last value was slightly higher than predicted by experts - at the level of 335 thousand , but still was lower than average at around 344 thousand for the whole of last year .

Consumer prices rose in January , although much slower than in the previous month . It became known from the data , which were released by the Department of Labor . According to the report, the consumer price index rose a seasonally adjusted 0.1% in January compared with the previous month . Main index , which excludes prices for food and energy , also increased by 0.1%. We add that the recent changes were fully in line with the average forecast of experts. Compared with a year earlier , consumer prices rose in January by 1.6 %, showing the strongest growth since July , but still remained below 2 percent annual target Fed . Basic prices also rose by 1.6 % compared with a year earlier. Annual increase also confirmed the expectations of economists.

Activity manufacturers in the Mid- Coast of the U.S. has slowed this month due to severe weather. This is stated in the Philadelphia Fed report . The overall index of business activity in the manufacturing sector in the region in February fell to -6.3 compared to 9.4 in January. Economists expected a decline to 9.2 index only . Values ​​below zero indicate a decline in activity above zero - expanding activity .

Activity in the U.S. manufacturing sector rebounded strongly in February . This is evidenced by the data published by Markit. According to the report , a preliminary purchasing managers' index (PMI) for the manufacturing U.S. in February rose to 56.7 in January against the final value of 53.7 . A reading above 50 indicates an increase in activity. The preliminary figure , which is based on approximately 85% of the monthly survey replies , " pointed to the fastest overall improvement in conditions in the U.S. manufacturing sector in May 2010 ," According to the Markit. Subindexes generally significantly improved this month compared with January's final values.

The Australian dollar fell after the publication of disappointing statistics on Chinese production. As it became known , the Chinese manufacturing index fell again in February , continuing progress on reducing the territory , reaching a seven-month low , and that was due to a fall in new orders , suggesting that the economic recovery is losing momentum .

On a seasonally adjusted preliminary purchasing managers index from Markit / HSBC, which measures activity in the manufacturing sector fell to 48.3 points in February , compared to 49.5 points in January . Economists had expected the index to fall to the level of 49.4 points . The index currently remains below 50 points for the second month in a row and is at its lowest level in seven months .

European stocks closed little changed, trimming losses in the final minutes of trading, after data showed Chinese manufacturing shrank for a second month and Federal Reserve minutes signaled stimulus cuts will continue.

A Chinese manufacturing index fell to the lowest level in seven months, data showed today. The preliminary February reading of 48.3 for a purchasing managers’ index from HSBC Holdings Plc and Markit Economics came in lower than January’s final figure of 49.5 and the 49.5 median estimate in a Bloomberg News survey. A number below 50 indicates contraction.

Fed policy makers said they would soon have to modify their commitment to keep the benchmark interest rate near zero until unemployment falls below 6.5 percent, according to minutes of their January meeting released yesterday.

National benchmark indexes dropped in seven of the 18 western European markets. The U.K.’s FTSE 100 added 0.2 percent, Germany’s DAX lost 0.4 percent and France’s CAC 40 rose 0.3 percent.

BAE dropped 8.3 percent to 400.4 pence. Europe’s largest defense company said earnings per share will decline 5 percent to 10 percent in 2014 because of the pressure on the U.S. to contain its budget.

Randstad fell 11 percent to 44 euros, its worst retreat since March 2009. The world’s second-largest staffing company posted fourth-quarter sales that missed projections. Rabobank International downgraded the stock to hold from buy, saying profit trailed its estimate. Exane BNP Paribas said analysts may reduce their price estimates for Randstad after weak results.

TUI slid 5.4 percent to 13.02 euros, its biggest decline since August. Monteray Enterprises Ltd., controlled by trusts of Norwegian shipping magnate John Fredriksen’s family, sold 39.7 million shares in the company for 521 million euros. That leaves the Norwegian investor with 4.4 percent of TUI’s capital, the tour operator said in a statement.

A gauge of commodity producers slumped the most among the 19 industry groups on the Stoxx 600, losing 1.1 percent.

Technip rose 9 percent to 69.99 euros. Europe’s largest oil-services provider by market value said its operating-profit margin from subsea operations will be at least 12 percent in 2014 and increase to 15 percent to 17 percent next year.

West Texas Intermediate crude slipped from a four-month high after the Energy Information Administration said U.S. inventories climbed. Brent declined.

WTI dropped for the first time in three days. Crude supplies increased 973,000 barrels in the week ended Feb. 14. Analysts surveyed by Bloomberg had expected a gain of 2.25 million. Supplies at Cushing, Oklahoma, declined for a third week as the southern leg of TransCanada Corp.’s (TRP) Keystone XL pipeline moved oil to the Gulf Coast.

U.S. crude supplies rose to 362.3 million, the highest level since Dec. 20, the EIA, the Energy Department’s statistical arm, said. Distillate fuel, including heating oil and diesel, declined by 339,000 barrels. Analysts had forecast a drop of 2.1 million in the Bloomberg survey.

Inventories at Cushing, the delivery point for WTI futures, fell to 35.9 million barrels, the lowest level since Oct. 25.

WTI for March delivery, which expires today, fell 26 cents, or 0.3 percent, to $103.05 at 11:14 a.m. on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The futures were at $103.12 before the report was released at 11 a.m. in Washington. April crude, the most active contract, slid 17 cents to $102.67. The volume of all futures traded was 23 percent below the 100-day average.

Brent for April settlement declined 27 cents to $110.20 a barrel on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange. Volume was 31 percent below the 100-day average. Brent crude was at a premium of $7.53 to WTI for the same month on ICE. The spread settled at $7.63 yesterday.

Gold prices are rising as the dollar's decline and increased demand in the physical market .

In February gold passed the psychologically important level of $ 1,300 , and on Tuesday the price rose to a maximum of 3.5 months $ 1.332,10 .

Recent data from the U.S. Labor Department showed that the number of applications for unemployment benefits fell slightly last week , which is another sign of improvement in the labor market. According to the report , the seasonally adjusted number of initial claims for unemployment benefits fell for the week ending February 15 , 3 thousand , reaching at this level of 336 thousand last value was slightly higher than predicted by experts - at the level of 335 thousand , but still was lower than average at around 344 thousand for the whole of last year .

Dealers expect jewelers will buy gold in times of price reduction , and high import duty on gold in India encourages its smuggling . Margins on gold bars in Singapore remained at last week's $ 1.20-1.50 per ounce to the spot price in London and dealers noted buying in Indonesia and sale of scrap gold in Thailand. Margins on gold bars in Hong Kong are held in the range of $ 1.30-1.50 to the price in London.

The cost of the April gold futures on the COMEX today rose to $1318.00 per ounce.

U.S. stock futures reversed early losses after a gauge of manufacturing rose more than forecast, overshadowing data showing 

Chinese manufacturing shrank amid concern over growth prospects for emerging markets.

Global markets:

Nikkei 14,449.18 -317.35 -2.15 %

Hang Seng 22,394.08 -270.44 -1.19 %

Shanghai Composite 2,138.78 -3.77 -0.18 %

FTSE 6,777.33 -19.38 -0.29%

CAC 4,331.67 -9.43 -0.22%

DAX 9,556.75 -103.30 -1.07%

Crude oil $103.23 (-0.08%)

Gold $1315.60 (-0.36%).

USD/JPY Y101.30, 101.80, Y102.00, Y103.00, Y103.50, Y103.90, Y104.05, Y105.00

EUR/USD $1.3600, $1.3700, $1.3720/25, $1.3750, $1.3800, $1.3825, $1.3875

GBP/USD $1.6540-50, $1.6600, $1.6700

EUR/GBP stg0.8150, stg0.8175, stg0.8190-95, stg0.8200, stg0.8245, stg0.8280, stg0.8320

AUD/USD $0.8810, $0.8950, $0.9050, $0.9075

AUD/JPY Y92.50, Y92.95, Y93.00

USD/CAD C$1.1050, C$1.1100, C$1.1130/35

Data

01:45 China HSBC Manufacturing PMI February 49.5 49.4 48.3

07:00 Germany Producer Price Index (MoM) January +0.1% +0.3% -0.1%

07:00 Germany Producer Price Index (YoY) January -0.5% -0.8% -1.1%

07:00 Switzerland Trade Balance January 0.50 1.47 2.59

07:45 France CPI, m/m January +0.3% -0.3% -0.6%

07:45 France CPI, y/y January +0.7% +1.1% +0.8%

07:58 France Manufacturing PMI (Preliminary) February 49.3 49.6 48.5

07:58 France Services PMI (Preliminary) February 48.9 49.5 46.9

08:28 Germany Manufacturing PMI (Preliminary) February 56.5 56.4 54.7

08:28 Germany Services PMI (Preliminary) February 53.1 53.4 55.4

08:58 Eurozone Manufacturing PMI (Preliminary) February 54.0 54.2 53.0

08:58 Eurozone Services PMI (Preliminary) February 51.6 51.9 51.7

11:00 United Kingdom CBI industrial order books balance February -2 6     3

Rate of the euro fell sharply against the U.S. dollar , which was associated with the release of data on PMI. The decline began after a report showed that private sector activity in France has declined at a faster pace in February , which stood at the head of a marked deterioration in service sector activity . On a seasonally adjusted composite index of activity that assesses the effectiveness of the manufacturing and service sectors , fell to two-month low in February , and was 47.6 points, compared to 48.9 points in January . Recall that the value of this index below 50 indicate a contraction in activity in the sector. Meanwhile, it became known that the purchasing managers' index for the manufacturing sector fell to 48.5 in February from 49.3 in the year. Economists expected the index to rise to 49.6 . At the same time , the activity indicator for the service sector fell to 46.9 , compared with 48.9 in January. Expectations were at 49.5 .

Pressure also provided data for the euro area , which showed that the private sector economy continued its expansion in February , increased this streak to eight consecutive months, but showed weaker results than predicted by many economists . According to the report , the composite index , which measures the efficiency in the manufacturing sector and services totaled 52.7 points in February , which was slightly lower than January's 31 -month high at 52.9 points . Economists had expected the figure was 53.1 points . Studies also that the Purchasing Managers Index for the manufacturing sector fell to 53 points in February to 54 points in January . Expectations were at the level of 54.2 points . Meanwhile, the activity indicator in the service sector rose to 51.7 from 51.6 at the beginning of the year. Economists expected the index to rise to 51.9 .

Yen continues to be traded higher against the dollar, the aversion of investors into safer assets after the fall of the stock market of Asia. Negative on the stock market part of the publication of disappointing statistics on Chinese production. As it became known , the Chinese manufacturing index fell again in February , continuing progress on reducing the territory , reaching a seven-month low , and that was due to a fall in new orders , suggesting that the economic recovery is losing momentum .

On a seasonally adjusted preliminary purchasing managers index from Markit / HSBC, which measures activity in the manufacturing sector fell to 48.3 points in February , compared to 49.5 points in January . Economists had expected the index to fall to the level of 49.4 points . The index currently remains below 50 points for the second month in a row and is at its lowest level in seven months .

Demand for the Japanese currency support standby output of statistical data on inflation and U.S. employment . According to the median forecast of economists , inflation may slow down , pointing to problems in the recovery of the world 's largest economy . It is expected that the CPI in January to slow to 0.1 % , whereas the previous value was at 0.3% . Individual employment report could show reduction of initial applications for unemployment benefits .

The Swiss franc fell markedly against the dollar, which has been associated with risk aversion . Could not help franc even positive trade balance . As it became known , Switzerland 's trade surplus rose sharply in January , driven by an increase in exports of chemical and pharmaceutical products . This information was voiced today by the Federal Customs Administration Switzerland. According to the report , the trade surplus rose last month to a level of 2.59 billion Swiss francs , compared with a surplus of 521 million Swiss francs in the month of December , which was revised upward 503 million data also showed that exports grew at a faster pace in January - by 2.5 percent, compared with an increase of 1.1 percent in December. We add that the export has been growing for the third consecutive month . On the other hand , imports decreased, which is fixed for the first three months. Imports fell 2.3 percent after rising 1.5 percent in December.

EUR / USD: during the European session, the pair fell to $ 1.3684

GBP / USD: during the European session, the pair fell to $ 1.6630 , but then rose to $ 1.6674

USD / JPY: during the European session, the pair fell to Y101.66, then rose to Y102.10

At 13:30 GMT the United States will present the consumer price index for January, and 14:00 GMT - the index of business activity in the manufacturing sector in February. At 15:00 GMT Eurozone release indicator of consumer confidence for February, and the U.S. - Fed manufacturing index for February Philadelphia . At 23:50 GMT the meeting minutes will be published on the Bank of Japan's monetary policy in January .

European stocks dropped for the first time in five days after data showed Chinese manufacturing shrank for a second month and Federal Reserve minutes signaled stimulus cuts will continue. U.S. equity-index futures were little changed, while Asian shares declined.

The Stoxx Europe 600 Index slid 0.8 percent to 332.31 at 9:43 a.m. in London. The benchmark rallied 4.6 percent since Feb. 4 through yesterday as Fed Chair Janet Yellen pledged to continue her predecessor’s approach to stimulus policy.

A Chinese manufacturing index fell to the lowest level in seven months, data showed today. The preliminary February reading of 48.3 for a purchasing managers’ index from HSBC Holdings Plc and Markit Economics came in lower than January’s final figure of 49.5 and the 49.5 median estimate. A number below 50 indicates contraction.

Fed policy makers said they would soon have to modify their commitment to keep the benchmark interest rate near zero until unemployment falls below 6.5 percent, according to minutes of their January meeting released yesterday.

“Participants agreed that, with the unemployment rate approaching 6.5 percent, it would soon be appropriate for the Committee to change its forward guidance in order to provide information about its decisions regarding the federal funds rate after that threshold was crossed,” the records noted.

BAE dropped 9.3 percent to 396.4 pence. Europe’s largest defense company said earnings per share will decline 5 percent to 10 percent in 2014 because of the pressure on the U.S. to contain its budget.

Randstad fell 8.4 percent to 45.02 euros, its worst retreat since August 2011. The world’s second-largest staffing company posted fourth-quarter sales that missed projections. Rabobank International downgraded the stock to hold from buy, saying profit trailed its estimate. Exane BNP Paribas said analysts may reduce their price estimates for Randstad after weak results.

TUI slid 4.8 percent to 13.10 euros, its biggest decline since August. Monteray Enterprises Ltd., controlled by trusts of Norwegian shipping magnate John Fredriksen’s family, was selling a 15.7 percent stake in the owner of Europe’s largest travel company, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. said.

FTSE 100 6,777.38 -19.33 -0.28%

CAC 40 4,321.24 -19.86 -0.46%

DAX 9,543.44 -116.61 -1.21%

USD/JPY Y101.30, 101.80, Y102.00, Y103.00, Y103.50, Y103.90, Y104.05, Y105.00

EUR/USD $1.3600, $1.3700, $1.3720/25, $1.3750, $1.3800, $1.3825, $1.3875

GBP/USD $1.6540-50, $1.6600, $1.6700

EUR/GBP stg0.8150, stg0.8175, stg0.8190-95, stg0.8200, stg0.8245, stg0.8280, stg0.8320

AUD/USD $0.8810, $0.8950, $0.9050, $0.9075

AUD/JPY Y92.50, Y92.95, Y93.00

USD/CAD C$1.1050, C$1.1100, C$1.1130/35

Asian stocks fell, with the regional benchmark index declining the most in two weeks, after a Chinese manufacturing gauge dropped more than estimated. The China PMI released today by HSBC Holdings Plc and Markit Economics showed a preliminary February reading of 48.3, compared with January’s final figure of 49.5 and the 49.5 median estimate in a Bloomberg News survey of 17 economists. A number below 50 indicates contraction.

Nikkei 225 14,449.18 -317.35 -2.15%

S&P/ASX 200 5,412.34 +4.10 +0.08%

Shanghai Composite 2,136.97 -5.59 -0.26%

Industrial & Commercial Bank of China Ltd., the nation’s largest lender, slid 2.7 percent as financial companies led losses.

Naver Corp. sank 8.1 percent in Seoul amid concern an expansion at WhatsApp Inc. following its acquisition by Facebook Inc. would curb sales at the South Korean Internet site.

China Petroleum & Chemical Corp. surged 9.6 percent in Hong Kong after Asia’s biggest oil refiner said it’s seeking private investors.

01:45 China HSBC Manufacturing PMI February 49.5 49.4 48.3

The yen strengthened versus all its 16 major counterparts as investors sought the perceived safety of the Japanese currency after Asian stocks fell following private data that signaled weaker Chinese manufacturing. Preliminary reading showed an unexpected decline in a Chinese manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index from HSBC Holdings Plc and Markit Economics. Today’s reading of 48.3 for HSBC and Markit’s Chinese manufacturing gauge compares with January’s final figure of 49.5 and the 49.5 median estimate in a Bloomberg News survey of 17 economists.

Japan’s currency was also supported before a report today that may show U.S. inflation slowed, adding to concern the recovery in the world’s biggest economy is weakening. The dollar slid versus its Japanese counterpart before data that economists estimate will show U.S. consumer price index gains slowed to 0.1 percent last month. Separate reports today may show a decline in initial jobless claims and an advance in the Conference Board’s gauge of the economic outlook for the next three to six months.

Several Federal Reserve policy makers said that, in “the absence of an appreciable change in the economic outlook, there should be a clear presumption in favor” of continuing to trim the central bank’s asset purchases by $10 billion at each meeting, according to minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee’s Jan. 28-29 gathering published yesterday.

EUR / USD: during the Asian session, the pair rose to $ 1.3755

GBP / USD: during the Asian session, the pair traded in the range to $ 1.6665-85

USD / JPY: on Asian session the pair fell to Y101.85

There is another full calendar Thursday, with the main features in the morning session likely to be the release of the euro area flash manufacturing and services PMI numbers for February. The European calendar gets underway at 0700GMT, with the release of the German January PPI data, with analysts looking for +0.2% on month, down 0.8% on year. At 0745GMT, the French January HICP numbers will be published. The release of the main euro area flash PMI numbers kicks off at 0758GMT, when the French manufacturing and services numbers cross the wires. At 0800GMT, ECB Vice-President Vitor Constancio is scheduled to speak in Brussels. The flash PMI numbers continue at 0828GMT, when the German numbers are released, followed by the amalgamated eurozone data at 0858GMT. Italian December industrial orders data will follow at 0900GMT. At 1400GNT, the Belgian consumer confidence data will be released.