CFD Markets News and Forecasts — 19-02-2014

Hang Seng 22,664.52 +76.80 +0.34%

Shanghai Composite 2,142.55 +23.49 +1.11%   

S&P 500 1,828.75 -12.01 -0.65%

NASDAQ  4,237.95 -34.83 -0.82%

Dow 16,040.56 -89.84 -0.56%   

FTSE  6,796.71 +0.28 0.00%    

CAC 4,341.1 +10.39 +0.24%

DAX 9,660.05 +0.27 0.00%

(pare/closed(GMT +2)/change, %)

EUR/USD $1,3732 -0,19%

GBP/USD $1,6679 -0,02%

USD/CHF Chf0,8883 +0,06%

USD/JPY Y102,30 -0,05%

EUR/JPY Y140,49 -0,23%

GBP/JPY Y170,60  -0,08%

AUD/USD $0,8988 -0,41%

NZD/USD $0,8270 -0,44%

USD/CAD C$1,1078 +1,19%

01:45 China HSBC Manufacturing PMI February 49.5 49.4     

07:00 Germany Producer Price Index (MoM) January +0.1% +0.3%     

07:00 Germany Producer Price Index (YoY) January -0.5% -0.8%     

07:00 Switzerland Trade Balance January 0.50 1.47     

07:45 France CPI, m/m January +0.3% -0.3%     

07:45 France CPI, y/y January     +0.7% +1.1%     

07:58 France Manufacturing PMI (Preliminary) February 49.3 49.6     

07:58 France Services PMI (Preliminary) February     48.9 49.5     

08:28 Germany Manufacturing PMI (Preliminary) February 56.5 56.4     

08:28 Germany Services PMI (Preliminary) February 53.1 53.4     

08:58 Eurozone Manufacturing PMI (Preliminary) February 54.0 54.2     

08:58 Eurozone Services PMI (Preliminary) February 51.6 51.9     

11:00 United Kingdom CBI industrial order books balance February -2 6     

13:30 U.S. Initial Jobless Claims February 339 335     

13:30 U.S. CPI, m/m January +0.3% +0.1%     

13:30 U.S. CPI, Y/Y  January +1.5% +1.6%     

13:30 U.S. CPI excluding food and energy, m/m January +0.1% +0.1%     

13:30 U.S. CPI excluding food and energy, Y/Y January +1.7% +1.6%     

14:00 U.S. Manufacturing PMI (Preliminary) February 53.7 53.6     

15:00 Eurozone Consumer Confidence February -11.7 -11.0     

15:00 U.S. Leading Indicators     December +0.1% +0.5%     

15:00 U.S. Mortgage Delinquencies Quarter IV 6.41%         

15:00 U.S. Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey     February     9.4 9.2     

16:00 U.S. Crude Oil Inventories February +3.3         

23:50 Japan Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

Тhe euro retreated from lows against the U.S. dollar on the back of weak reports on the U.S. housing market . Housing Starts fell sharply last month , a sign of "cooling" in the housing market in the United States . Decline was mainly associated with abnormally cold weather in large parts of the country.

The report of the Ministry of Commerce said that in January, housing starts fell by 16% to a seasonally adjusted , while reaching 880 thousand units. We also add that the figure for December was revised upward to reach 1.048 million units. At the head of the January decline were single-family housing bookmarks , which decreased by 15.9 % - up to 573 thousand in annual terms . Meanwhile, the number of building permits , which is an indicator of future construction , fell 5.4% to a seasonally adjusted - up to 937 thousand , compared to a revised figure for December at the level of 991 thousand units.

Economists forecast that housing starts dropped to 943 thousand , and the number of building permits decreased to 973 thousand

Pound previously fell against the U.S. dollar , which was a reaction to the British report . Data that has been submitted by the Office for National Statistics showed that the UK labor market continued to strengthen in recent months in 2013 , in favor of which said revenue growth and decline in the number of applications for unemployment benefits. However, it was observed an unexpected rise in the unemployment rate in the three months to December compared with the previous three-month period that serves as a reminder that the economic recovery is not as strong or balanced , says the Bank of England .

According to the report , the unemployment rate rose to 7.2 % in the three months to December , compared with 7.1% in the previous three months to November. However , the latter result was significantly less than 7.6% in the third quarter . It was also reported that the number of unemployed fell by 125,000 over the last three months of 2013. Increasing unemployment surprised economists , as they expected that this figure will remain the same .

Average growth of regular income , except for bonuses , in the three months to December rose by 1.0 % compared with 0.9 % in the previous three-month period , recording the largest increase since June last year . Moreover , it became known that the level of unemployment claims for employment fell in January to reach 3.6% from 3.7 % in December , showing the 15th consecutive monthly decline and reached its lowest level since December 2008.

The yen rose against the dollar before the U.S. , which was associated with the release of the monthly report of the Bank of Japan . It was said that the Japanese economy will continue to recover at a moderate pace in the near future , with the support of the further improvement of industrial production and foreign demand. The Bank of Japan, however, warned that economic growth will depend on the increase and subsequent decrease in demand before and after the increase in the consumption tax , which will be introduced in April this year. Adverse events in emerging markets, the European debt crisis and the pace of the U.S. economic recovery also pose risks to economic growth in Japan , reported in the monthly report .

Exports are expected to increase slightly , mainly to a recovery in overseas economies , says the Bank of Japan . At the same time , industrial production will continue to grow , albeit at a moderate pace, on a background of stability and strength of private consumption, investments in the housing market.

European stocks were little changed, erasing their decline in the final 90 minutes of trading, as Tenaris SA (TEN) and Vallourec SA (VK) slid after the U.S. failed to impose anti-dumping duties on South Korea in a preliminary decision.

The Stoxx Europe 600 Index added 0.1 percent to 334.94 at the close after earlier dropping as much as 0.6 percent. The benchmark has climbed 5.5 percent from its low on Feb. 4 as Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen said she would continue her predecessor’s approach toward the central bank’s bond-buying program. The gauge is 0.3 percent below the six-year high it reached on Jan. 22.

In the U.S., a Commerce Department report showed that housing starts fell to an annual pace of 880,000 in January from a revised rate of 1.05 million in December. That missed the median estimate of 950,000 in a Bloomberg survey.

The Fed releases the minutes of its Jan. 28-29 meeting after European markets close today. At the meeting -- the last under former chairman Ben S. Bernanke -- policy makers reduced the bank’s monthly asset purchases to $65 billion, citing the improved outlook for the labor market.

In the U.K., the minutes from the last meeting of the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee showed that the policy makers did not hold a vote on the new phase of forward guidance introduced by Governor Mark Carney. The central bank has changed its focus to the amount of spare capacity in the economy, rather than concentrating on the unemployment rate.

National benchmark indexes dropped in six of the 18 western-European markets. The U.K.’s FTSE 100 and Germany’s DAX added less than 0.1 percent, while France’s CAC 40 climbed 0.2 percent.

Tenaris, which generated 49 percent of its 2012 revenue from North America, slid 6.9 percent to 15.96 euros. Vallourec, which got 29 percent of sales from the region, retreated 4.5 percent to 37.41 euros.

The U.S. Commerce Department refrained from imposing anti-dumping penalties on imports of steel tubing from South Korea in a decision late yesterday. It set tariffs on products from eight other countries. The exemption for South Korea will probably reduce Tenaris’s earnings by about 8 percent, or $200 million, and Vallourec’s profit by about 5 percent, or $75 million, according to Raphael Veverka, an analyst at Exane BNP Paribas.

Lafarge gained 3.2 percent to 54.30 euros as the world’s second-biggest cement maker said fourth-quarter net income rose to 213 million euros from 83 million euros a year earlier. That exceeded the 198 million-euro average prediction of analysts surveyed by Bloomberg.

Carlsberg jumped 7.1 percent to 585 kroner. The Danish brewer reported fourth-quarter earnings before interest and taxes of 2.32 billion kroner ($427 million), beating the 2.19 billion kroner estimated by analysts in a Bloomberg survey. The company also posted sales of 15.7 billion kroner for the period, beating the 15.5 billion-krone average forecast.

The cost of WTI crude oil is kept at close to $ 103 level on the background of continuing severe weather conditions in the United States .

Extremely cold weather in the U.S. boosts demand for heating oil , which in turn increases the price of WTI, which serves as a raw material.

Extreme cold, observed in most of the U.S. this winter, led to a sharp rise in demand and prices for fuels such as natural gas or fuel oil. Stocks of distillates , including heating oil , are 22% below average levels for this time of year . Published on Tuesday revised forecasts indicate that next week in the United States resumed heavy frosts , whereas previously predicted steady warming.

Later investors awaited the publication of a number of important market data from the U.S. and China. So , later on Wednesday the American Petroleum Institute will present data on the dynamics of the weekly wholesale inventories of raw materials in the United States . Distillate stocks in the country is forecast down 1.8 million barrels .

Analysts also believe that oil stocks at Cushing ( the largest terminal in the U.S.) for the week ended February 20 fell by 1.4 million barrels .

In addition, the dynamics of trade can affect publication of the minutes of the last meeting of the U.S. Federal Reserve , as well as data on the index of business activity in the manufacturing sector in China , calculated by the bank HSBC, in February.

March futures price for U.S. light crude oil WTI (Light Sweet Crude Oil) traded in the range $ 102.40 - $ 103.34 per barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX).

March futures price for North Sea Brent crude oil mixture rose 21 cents to $ 110.67 a barrel on the London exchange ICE Futures Europe.

Gold prices retreated on Tuesday marked maximum 3.5 months on profit and reduce purchases in the physical market .

Margins on gold bars in Hong Kong are held at $ 1.30-1.70 to the spot price in London. Stocks of the world's largest exchange-traded fund backed by gold (ETF) SPDR Gold Trust on Friday fell by 0.63 percent , while the stocks of the largest secured silver fund iShares Silver Trust - 0.59 percent.

Gold demand fell 15 percent in 2013 , as a massive outflow of funds from the ETF- funds outweighed record demand in the consumer market , said the World Gold Council .

Investors are waiting for the January meeting, the Fed report , which will be published today at 19:00 GMT. Demand for precious metals waned on expectations that within the current protocol will still make the Fed 's commitment to reduce the current $ 65 -billion program of monthly purchases of assets. However, investors will also seek out hints of willingness by the Central Bank to " take your foot off the brake pedal " in case of deterioration in the labor market or the economy as a whole.

This year gold has risen in price by 9.5 % on purchases due to the volatility of emerging markets and concern the U.S. economic recovery process .

The cost of the April gold futures on the COMEX today from bottom up to $ 1314.20 per ounce.

Standard & Poor’s 500 Index futures fell as a report showed the pace of U.S. home construction slid more than forecast in January.

Global markets:

Nikkei 14,766.53 -76.71 -0.52%

Hang Seng 22,664.52 +76.80 +0.34%

Shanghai Composite 2,142.55 +23.49 +1.11%

FTSE 6,776.87 -19.56 -0.29%

CAC 4,328.34 -2.37 -0.05%

DAX 9,639.36 -20.42 -0.21%

Crude oil: $102.78 (+0.34%)

Gold $1321.20 (-0.24%).

USD/JPY 101.50, Y102.00, Y103.50

EUR/USD $1.3625, $1.3645, $1.3690, $1.3700, $1.3725

GBP/USD $1.6600, $1.6625, $1.6650, $1.6750

EUR/GBP stg0.8125, stg0.8200, stg0.8300

AUD/USD $0.8950, $0.8960, $0.9010, $0.9050, $0.9055, $0.9075

USD/CAD C$1.0900, C$1.1100

Data

00:30 Australia Wage Price Index, q/q Quarter IV +0.5% +0.7% +0.7%

00:30 Australia Wage Price Index, y/y Quarter IV +2.7% +2.6% +2.6%

04:30 Japan All Industry Activity Index, m/m December +0.3% +0.2% -0.1%

05:00 Japan BoJ monthly economic report February

09:30 United Kingdom Average Earnings, 3m/y December +0.9% +0.9% +1.1%

09:30 United Kingdom Average earnings ex bonuses, 3 m/y December +0.9% +0.9% +1.0%

09:30 United Kingdom Bank of England Minutes

09:30 United Kingdom Claimant count January -24.0 -18.3 -27.6

09:30 United Kingdom Claimant Count Rate January 3.7% 3.6%

09:30 United Kingdom ILO Unemployment Rate December 7.1% 7.1% 7.2%

10:00 Eurozone Construction Output, m/m December -0.6% +0.9%

10:00 Eurozone Construction Output, y/y December -1.7% -0.2%

10:00 Switzerland Credit Suisse ZEW Survey (Expectations) February 36.4 40.0 28.7

The dollar rose slightly against the euro retreated from seven-week low , as market participants are waiting for today's publication of the minutes of the January meeting of the Federal Reserve System. Recall that in December the U.S. central bank announced that it would begin to curtail incentive programs by reducing the monthly bond purchases at $ 10 billion and in the last month the Fed QE reduced to 65 billion dollars .

Also , market participants are waiting for the report from the Ministry of Commerce, which will be presented to 12:30 GMT. These will probably show that new housing Bookmarks fell to 943 thousand per annum in January with 999 thousand in December.

Pound fell against the U.S. dollar, which was a reaction to the British report . Data that has been submitted by the Office for National Statistics showed that the UK labor market continued to strengthen in recent months in 2013 , in favor of which said revenue growth and decline in the number of applications for unemployment benefits. However, it was observed an unexpected rise in the unemployment rate in the three months to December compared with the previous three-month period that serves as a reminder that the economic recovery is not as strong or balanced , says the Bank of England .

According to the report , the unemployment rate rose to 7.2 % in the three months to December , compared with 7.1% in the previous three months to November. However , the latter result was significantly less than 7.6% in the third quarter . It was also reported that the number of unemployed fell by 125,000 over the last three months of 2013. Increasing unemployment surprised economists , as they expected that this figure will remain the same .

Average growth of regular income , except for bonuses , in the three months to December rose by 1.0 % compared with 0.9 % in the previous three-month period , recording the largest increase since June last year . Moreover , it became known that the level of unemployment claims for employment fell in January to reach 3.6% from 3.7 % in December , showing the 15th consecutive monthly decline and reached its lowest level since December 2008.

The yen rose against the U.S. dollar , which was associated with the release of the monthly report of the Bank of Japan . It was said that the Japanese economy will continue to recover at a moderate pace in the near future , with the support of the further improvement of industrial production and foreign demand. The Bank of Japan, however, warned that economic growth will depend on the increase and subsequent decrease in demand before and after the increase in the consumption tax , which will be introduced in April this year. Adverse events in emerging markets, the European debt crisis and the pace of the U.S. economic recovery also pose risks to economic growth in Japan , reported in the monthly report .

Exports are expected to increase slightly , mainly to a recovery in overseas economies , says the Bank of Japan . At the same time , industrial production will continue to grow , albeit at a moderate pace, on a background of stability and strength of private consumption, investments in the housing market.

Franc fell slightly against the U.S. dollar , as the report of Switzerland was worse than expected . Note that Swiss economic expectations retreated from the highest level in more than three and a half years in February , as financial analysts have become more cautious amid slowing growth in major export markets for the Alpine country.

A study conducted by the ZEW Institute and Credit Suisse Group, showed that investors' expectations index fell to 28.7 points in February , compared to 36.4 points in January ( the highest since May 2010) . Recall that a positive value indicates that the number of participants who expect an improvement in the economic outlook is higher than the number of those who expect that they deteriorate.

We add that the latest data from the Swiss ZEW contrasts with the Purchasing Managers Index , which rose more than expected in January , and an early indicator of KOF, which rose to its highest level in two and a half years last month. They point out that economic growth in the euro zone starts to support the demand for Swiss industrial goods , which should stimulate the economy in the next six months.

EUR / USD: during the European session, the pair fell to $ 1.3740

GBP / USD: during the European session, the pair fell to $ 1.6634

USD / JPY: during the European session, the pair fell to Y101.85

At 13:30 GMT , Canada announces the change of volume of wholesale trade in December , and the U.S. will report the volume of building permits issued , the number of Housing Starts and Producer Price Index for January. At 19:00 GMT the United States will be held publication of the minutes of the Fed meeting in January . At 21:45 GMT New Zealand will present the index of purchase prices manufacturers 4Q . At 23:50 GMT , Japan will announce the overall balance of foreign trade in January .

European stocks retreated, following three days of gains, as investors awaited a report on U.S. housing starts, while companies from Societe Television Francaise 1 (TFI) to Lafarge SA (LG) reported results. U.S. index futures declined, while Asian shares were little changed.

The Stoxx Europe 600 Index slipped 0.3 percent to 333.6 at 11:05 a.m. in London. The benchmark has climbed 5 percent from its low on Feb. 4 as Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen said she would continue her predecessor’s approach toward the central bank’s bond-buying program. The gauge is 0.8 percent below the six-year high it reached on Jan. 22.

In the U.S., a Commerce Department report will probably show housing starts fell to a 943,000 annual pace in January from a 999,000 rate in December, according to economists.

The Fed releases the minutes of its Jan. 28-29 meeting after European markets close today. At the meeting -- the last under former chairman Ben S. Bernanke -- policy makers reduced the bank’s monthly asset purchases to $65 billion, citing the improved outlook for the labor market.

In the U.K., the minutes from the last meeting of the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee showed that the policy makers did not hold a vote on the new phase of forward guidance introduced by Governor Mark Carney. The central bank has changed its focus to the amount of spare capacity in the economy, rather than concentrating on the unemployment rate.

TF1 declined 1.7 percent to 13.66 euros after saying 2013 sales fell 5.7 percent to 2.47 billion euros ($3.4 billion). Analysts on average had predicted revenue of 2.5 billion euros.

Lafarge gained 3 percent to 54.20 euros as the world’s second-biggest cement maker said fourth-quarter net income rose to 213 million euros from 83 million euros a year earlier. That exceeded the 198 million-euro average prediction of analysts.

Carlsberg jumped 6 percent to 579 kroner. The Danish brewer reported fourth-quarter earnings before interest and taxes of 2.32 billion kroner ($427 million), beating the 2.19 billion kroner estimated by analysts. The company also posted sales of 15.7 billion kroner for the period, beating the 15.5 billion-krone average forecast.

FTSE 100 6,772.79 -23.64 -0.35%

CAC 40 4,318.96 -11.75 -0.27%

DAX 9,620.14 -39.64 -0.41%

USD/JPY 101.50, Y102.00, Y103.50

EUR/USD $1.3625, $1.3645, $1.3690, $1.3700, $1.3725

GBP/USD $1.6600, $1.6625, $1.6650, $1.6750

EUR/GBP stg0.8125, stg0.8200, stg0.8300

AUD/USD $0.8950, $0.8960, $0.9010, $0.9050, $0.9055, $0.9075

USD/CAD C$1.0900, C$1.1100

Asian stocks outside of Japan advanced, with a regional gauge heading for a one-month high, as health-care companies led gains. Shares in Tokyo retreated as the yen strengthened.

Nikkei 225 14,766.53 -76.71 -0.52%

S&P/ASX 200 5,408.24 +15.42 +0.29%

Shanghai Composite2,139.98 +20.92 +0.99%

Celltrion Inc., a South Korean drugmaker, jumped 7.1 percent, leading gains in the medical sector.

Seek Ltd. surged 18 percent in Sydney after the online hiring company reported an increase in first-half profit and said a unit will acquire a rival website.

Bridgestone Corp. dropped 4.3 percent in Tokyo after the tiremaker forecast slower-than-expected full-year profit growth.

00:30 Australia Wage Price Index, q/q Quarter IV +0.5% +0.7% +0.7%

00:30 Australia Wage Price Index, y/y Quarter IV +2.7% +2.6% +2.6%

04:30 Japan All Industry Activity Index, m/m December +0.3% +0.2% -0.1%

05:00 Japan BoJ monthly economic report February

The dollar fell to a seven-week low versus the euro before the Federal Reserve releases minutes of its January meeting as investors look for the stance of policy makers on recent economic data. The U.S. central bank announced in December it would start paring stimulus by cutting its monthly bond purchases by $10 billion per month, and policy makers decided on another reduction of the same size last month, to $65 billion.

The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index headed for its lowest close since December before data today forecast to show U.S. housing starts and building permits fell in January. U.S. housing starts probably fell 4.9 percent to a 950,000 annualized rate in January after December’s 9.8 percent drop, according to the median estimate of economists surveyed by Bloomberg before the Commerce Department data today. Economists in a separate Bloomberg poll predict building permits decreased 1.6 percent to a 975,000 pace last month from December.

The pound traded near the highest in more than four years before figures forecast to show the U.K. jobless rate held at the lowest since March 2009. In the U.K., the unemployment rate held at 7.1 percent in December from the previous month, matching the lowest since March 2009, the median estimate of economists polled by Bloomberg shows before the Office for National Statistics releases the data today.

The Bank of England will today release minutes of its Feb. 5-6 meeting when policy makers kept the interest rate at a record-low 0.5 percent.

Australia’s dollar retreated from the highest this month as Asian stocks declined and ahead of a gauge of Chinese manufacturing tomorrow forecast to show continued contraction. A flash estimate of China manufacturing PMI was unchanged at 49.5, HSBC and Markit Economics will say tomorrow according to economists in a Bloomberg survey. A reading below 50 indicate contraction. China is the biggest trading partner of both Australia and New Zealand.

EUR / USD: during the Asian session, the pair rose to $ 1.3770

GBP / USD: during the Asian session, the pair traded in the range to $ 1.6675-95

USD / JPY: on Asian session the pair fell to Y102.15

The European calendar gets underway at 0900GMT, when ECB Supervisory Board chair Daniele Nouy and ECB Executive Board member Sabine Lautenschlaeger speak at a hearing on the draft ECB SSM Framework Regulation, in Frankfurt. The limited euro area data set for release comes at 1000GMT, when the December construction output data cross the wires. There are a string of appearances expected from German Chancellor Angela Merkel, as she continues her visit to Paris. At 1345GMT, Merkel and French President Francois Hollande will hold a press conference, in Paris. Chancellor Merkel will deliver an economic policy speech at the OECD, in Paris at 1600GMT. Following that, Merkel, Hollande and European Commission President Jose Manuel Barroso will speak after meeting of the European Round Table of Industrialists. The main UK data release comes at 0930GMT, when the January Labour Market Statistics are released. The minutes of the BOE's early February meeting will also be released at 0930GMT. The US calendar gets underway at 1200GMT, when the MBA Mortgage Index for the Feb 14 week are released. At 1245GMT, the ICSC-Goldman Store Sales data for the week ending Feb 15 will be published. The main US data releases will be published at 1330GMT, when both January PPI data and the Jan housing starts data will hit the screens. The Redbook Average for the Feb 15 week will be published at 1355GMT. Across the Atlantic, from 1800GMT, the Fed will take centre stage. St. Louis Fed Bullard will deliver a speech on the economic outlook and monetary policy, in W'ton. The FOMC minutes for the Jan 28-29 meeting will be released at 1900GMT.