CFD Markets News and Forecasts — 29-01-2013

The euro rose to the strongest against the dollar since December 2011, breaking with the important technical level, which was associated with an increase in risk appetite among investors. The single currency also strengthened against the background of European stocks that have reached the highest level in the last two years, as there were signs that the financial crisis in the region is weakening.

The dollar fell against most of its 16 major counterparts, as many market participants expect tomorrow's statement from the Federal Reserve, which will help to assess the direction of future policy.

Japan's currency rose against the dollar, as a report showed that confidence among U.S. consumers fell in January, more than expected, while leaving to the lowest level in more than a year. Note also that the strengthening of the yen earlier was due to the fact that many investors have stated that according to their forecasts, the couple will not fall further.

The New Zealand dollar rose for the first time in four days against the U.S. dollar after the Bureau of Statistics said that the annual trade deficit narrowed to NZ $ 1.21 billion ($ 1 billion) for the 12 months ended in December, compared with a revised deficit on at NZ $ 1,39 billion a month earlier. Note that the projected deficit economists had to make NZ $ 1,87 billion

The Canadian dollar strengthened against the U.S. dollar, after falling to a four background that the currency could not fall below a key technical level. Meanwhile, the relative strength index for the currency against the U.S. indicated that the recent drop was too big.

The pound retreated from a five-month low against the dollar after the Bank of England's representative David Miles said that economic growth in the United Kingdom to perk up this year, and will be about 2-2.5% in the next 18 months.

European stocks rose to the highest level in more than 23 months as companies reported earnings and a report showed house prices in 20 U.S. cities increased.

Royal Philips Electronics NV climbed 2.3 percent after the world’s largest lighting manufacturer reported fourth-quarter results that topped analyst estimates. William Hill Plc (WMH) gained 2.1 percent after the bookmaker reporter a jump sales.

The Stoxx Europe 600 Index added 0.3 percent to 290.3 at the close in London, the highest level since Feb. 18, 2011.

National benchmark indexes climbed in 12 of the 18 western European (SXXP) markets.

FTSE 100 6,339.19 +44.78 +0.71% CAC 40 3,785.82 +4.93 +0.13% DAX 7,848.57 +15.57 +0.20%

Philips gained 2.3 percent to 22.43 euros after the world’s largest lighting manufacturer reported a 50 percent increase in fourth-quarter earnings before interest, taxes, amortization and one-time items to 875 million euros. The estimate survey was for 866 million euros. Sales gained 6.7 percent.

William Hill added 2.1 percent to 374 pence after the U.K. bookmaker said full-year net revenue grew by 12 percent after experiencing a strong fourth quarter. The company, which will release final results on March 1, expects operating profit of 330 million pounds ($518 million).

3i Group Plc (III), Britain’s oldest private-equity firm, rose 3.1 percent to 266.8 pence after saying that activist investor Edward Bramson has been buying its shares.

Software AG tumbled 17 percent to 28.90 after the German infrastructure-software provider reported fourth-quarter profit of 50.7 million euros ($68 million), missing analysts’ estimates of 52.9 million euros. Revenue in the fourth quarter came in at 276 million euros compared with estimates of 289.4 million euros.

Saipem SpA (SPM) fell 3.5 percent to 30.45 euros after Bank of America Corp.’s Merrill Lynch unit placed 9.97 million shares in Europe’s largest oil contractor by market value on behalf of an institutional client, according to the terms obtained by Bloomberg News. The shares were sold at 30.65 euros apiece.

BT Group Plc (BT/A) fell 2.3 percent to 246.2 pence after Bank of America downgraded the U.K.’s biggest fixed-line phone company to neutral from buy saying rising costs from plans to increase sales are endangering earnings growth.

Oil prices rose today, while still achieving four-month high after home prices in 20 U.S. cities rose by the most important in more than six years, signaling that the country's economic recovery is accelerating.

Futures climbed 0.9% after the index value of the property of S & P/Case-Shiller rose in November by 5.5% compared with the same month in 2011, as well as the expectations of 5.6%.

Also supporting oil prices have data, which showed that consumer confidence in Germany rose. According to the research group Gfk, the German consumer confidence will rise in the next month to the level of 5.8 to 5.7 for a stable labor market and higher expectations of income.

However, despite this increase, the price of oil fell slightly after a report showed that consumer confidence in the U.S. fell in January, more than expected, reaching the lowest level in more than a year. As it became known, Conference Board index dropped to a mark of 58.6, up from 66.7 in December.

Note also that now, many market participants are awaiting a report on oil reserves in the U.S., which will be presented tomorrow at the Energy Information Administration. According to the average forecast U.S. crude inventories rose by 2.5 million barrels last week, and the capacity of the refinery will be 83.25% (for seven days, which ended on January 25) while decreasing by 0.35%.

However, despite this positive trend, the oil could not hold its positions, and slightly decreased.

March futures price of U.S. light crude oil WTI (Light Sweet Crude Oil) rose to 97.65 dollars a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Duration of the February futures expire today.

March futures price for North Sea petroleum mix of mark Brent dropped 25 cents to $ 114.22 a barrel on the London Stock Exchange ICE Futures Europe.

The price of gold has increased, interrupted in this series of four downs, but growth has been limited, as many market participants' attention was focused on the upcoming Fed statement, which will be presented tomorrow.

Spot gold prices rose by 0.5%, departing from the values ​​in the last 2.5 weeks

Note that the market participants are expecting that the recent spate of positive economic data has forced the Fed's policy to consider changing its lending policies. However, many traders with great interest the publication of data on employment in non-agricultural sectors of the economy, which may be helping to assess the state of the economy.

Economists note that from a technical point of view, after falling in the last few days, there was an interest in buying, but the volume of these transactions is not sufficient to hold a further upward movement.

Meanwhile, experts say that stocks and other assets that are considered high risk, has recently attracted more and more investors, while gold lost some of their positions, as upbeat data from major economies of the world have made it clear that their economic recovery is gaining momentum.

February futures price of gold on COMEX today rose to 1661.90 dollars per ounce.

U.S. stock-index futures fell before a report on consumer confidence and a Federal Reserve two-day meeting. 

Global Stocks:

EUR/USD $1.3250

USD/JPY Y90.00, Y91.00, Y91.25

EUR/CHF Chf1.2400

AUD/USD $1.0395/$1.0405, $1.0450, $1.0500, $1.0600

NZD/USD $0.8395

EUR/USD

Offers $1.3550, $1.3530, $1.3510/15, $1.3495/500, $1.3470/80

Bids $1.3425/20, $1.3405/00, $1.3380/70, $1.3350

GBP/USD

Offers $1.5870/80, $1.5850/55, $1.5795/800, $1.5745

Bids $1.5675/70, $1.5650/35, $1.5610/00

AUD/USD

Offers $1.0550, $1.0540, $1.0525, $1.0500, $1.0480

Bids $1.0425/20, $1.0410/00, $1.0385/80, $1.0350, $1.0330/25, $1.0300

EUR/JPY

Offers Y123.00, Y122.80, Y122.45/50, Y121.90/95

Bids Y121.20, Y120.50, Y120.20, Y120.00

USD/JPY

Offers Y91.70, Y91.50, Y91.25/30, Y90.75/80

Bids Y90.40, Y90.30/20, Y90.10/00, Y89.80, Y89.50, Y89.20

EUR/GBP

Offers stg0.8600

Bids stg0.8540, stg0.8525/20, stg0.8500, stg0.8480, stg0.8465/60

European stocks were little changed before reports that may show U.S. consumer confidence declined for a third month, while home prices increased.

German consumer confidence will increase in February due to a stable labor market and higher income expectations, Gfk SE said. The Nuremberg-based market research company forecast today that its consumer-sentiment index, based on a survey of about 2,000 people, will rise to 5.8 from a revised 5.7 in January. Economists expected a gain to 5.7 from the initial January reading of 5.6, according to the median of 34 estimates in a survey.

William Hill Plc added 4.3 percent to 382.2 pence. The U.K. bookmaker said full-year net revenue grew by 12 percent and it expects operating profit of 330 million pounds ($518 million). The company will release final results March 1.

Aixtron SE, a maker of equipment for the semiconductor industry, rose 2 percent to 10.80 euros after Liberum Capital said it sees potential for a stronger recovery in demand for the company’s products in the second half of the year.

Software plunged 14 percent to 29.91 euros. The German infrastructure-software provider reported fourth-quarter profit of 50.7 million euros, missing analysts’ estimates of 52.9 million euros. Revenue in the fourth quarter came in at 276 million euros compared with estimates of 289.4 million euros ($389 million).

FTSE 100 6,293.05 -1.36 -0.02%

CAC 40 3,769.4 -11.49 -0.30%

DAX 7,819.13 -13.87 -0.18%

EUR / USD strengthened by the results of the auction for the six-month debt to Italy, which resulted in the yield fell to its lowest since March 2010 value of 0.731%. But then spun around and fell to $ 1.3417.

Greece recently reported that in December PPI index fell to 1.9% y / y from 2.4% the previous result.

Italy Sold E8.5bln 6-month BOT at average yield 0.731% (0.949%), bid-to-cover 1.65 (1.57)

EUR/USD $1.3250

USD/JPY Y90.00, Y91.00, Y91.25

EUR/CHF Chf1.2400

AUD/USD $1.0395/$1.0405, $1.0450, $1.0500, $1.0600

NZD/USD $0.8395

Asian stocks rose, with the regional benchmark index headed for its biggest gain in a week, as Japan’s largest lenders jumped on speculation a recent share rally will boost profit. Australia’s market climbed after a holiday and Korean shares rebounded from yesterday’s loss.

Nikkei 225 10,866.72 +42.41 +0.39%

Hang Seng 23,655.17 -16.71 -0.07%

S&P/ASX 200 4,888.98 +53.80 +1.11%

Shanghai Composite 2,358.98 +12.47 +0.53%

Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group Inc., Japan’s biggest bank, rose 3.8 percent in Tokyo. Samsung C&T Corp. gained 6.8 percent in Seoul after the construction and trading company’s operating profit beat estimates.

Industrial & Commercial Bank of China Ltd., the world’s largest lender by market value, slid 1.9 percent in Hong Kong after a term sheet showed Goldman Sachs Group Inc. is seeking to sell a $1 billion stake in the company.

The yen rose against most of the 16 most traded currencies, as many investors have suggested that the currency will stop its decline, which lasted for the past 11 weeks, which was the longest series of decline.

Japan's currency retreated from the minimum value against the dollar since 2010 as the technical indicators have indicated that the currency has declined too much.

The pound fell to its lowest level in more than 13 months against the euro, which was associated with the publication of data from Hometrack, which showed that house prices in England and Wales remained unchanged in December, after declining in the previous six months. Also exerted pressure on the currency earlier statement, which became known that the UK economy shrunk in the last quarter of 2012, more than expected, returned to recession.

The dollar rose against most major currencies, against the background of the fact that many market participants are waiting for the opening of a two-day meeting of the Fed, as well as a report on employment in non-agricultural sectors of the economy, which will be presented on February 1.

Note also that the support of the currency was a report presented by the Ministry of Commerce, which showed that orders for durable goods in the U.S. rose in December by 4.6% after increasing 0.7% in the previous month, although many experts forecast an increase of only 2%.

Most Asian shares outside Japan rose after Chinese industrial profits increased for a fourth month. Japan’s Nikkei 225 Stock Average, which on Jan. 25 capped its longest streak of weekly gains in more than 40 years, fell as Fanuc Corp. and Hitachi High-Technologies Corp. cut profit forecasts.

Nikkei 225 10,824.31 -102.34 -0.94%

Hang Seng 23,671.88 +91.45 +0.39%

S&P/ASX 200 Closed

Shanghai Composite 2,346.51 +55.20 +2.41%

Anhui Conch Cement Co. led increases among Chinese makers of the material in Hong Kong after Shenyin & Wanguo Securities Co. recommended the sector.

Nintendo Co. and Sony Corp. both climbed more than 3.5 percent on a report China may lift a ban on imports of game consoles.

Fanuc and Hitachi High-Tech each slumped more than 6.6 percent in Tokyo.

European stocks were little changed near a 23-month high as U.S. reports showed that durable-goods orders increased in the world’s largest economy while pending sales of houses declined.

SBM Offshore NV (SBMO) rose 3.4 percent after Morgan Stanley raised its recommendation for the stock. Debenhams Plc (DEB), the second-largest U.K. department-store chain, dropped 2.9 percent after Morgan Stanley cut its rating of the shares.

The Stoxx 600 slipped 0.1 percent to 289.36 at the close.

Orders for durable goods in the U.S., the European Union’s largest trading partner, climbed 4.6 percent in December, a Commerce Department report in Washington showed. Economists survey had forecast a gain of 2 percent.

A separate release from the National Association of Realtors showed its index of contracts for the purchase of previously owned homes fell 4.3 percent to 101.7 last month after a revised 1.6 percent increase in the prior month. The median forecast in a Bloomberg survey projected no change in the gauge.

Chinese industrial companies’ profits rose 17 percent to 895 billion yuan ($144 billion) in December from a year earlier, the National Bureau of Statistics said yesterday in Beijing.

National benchmark indexes gained in 11 of the 18 western European markets.

FTSE 100 6,294.41 +9.96 +0.16% CAC 40 3,780.89 +2.73 +0.07% DAX 7,833 -24.97 -0.32%

SBM Offshore gained 3.4 percent to 12.01 euros, a four- month high. The largest maker of floating oil-and-gas platforms was raised to equal weight, a rating similar to neutral, from underweight at Morgan Stanley.

ASML Holding NV added 2.8 percent to 56.23 euros, the highest price since it sold shares to the public in March 1995. Europe’s largest semiconductor-equipment supplier was raised to buy from neutral at Citigroup Inc, citing limited risk associated with capital spending by ASML’s customers.

TNT Express NV advanced 3.3 percent to 5.69 euros after UBS AG upgraded the shares to buy from neutral. The Dutch delivery company’s new management will swiftly act to fix or sell its Brazilian and Chinese operations, UBS said.

Debenhams dropped 2.9 percent to 102.2 pence as Morgan Stanley cut its recommendation on the shares to equal weight from overweight. The brokerage lowered its rating on the U.K. general retail industry to “cautious” and said analysts’ estimates for the industry’s profit growth in 2013 are too high.

Indexes finished trading mixed trends, helped by strong data on orders for durable goods and confounding expectations data on the U.S. housing market.

As shown by data released in December orders for durable goods rose by 4.6%, which was significantly higher than forecast (+1.8%). Orders excluding transportation also had higher expectations: 1.3% vs. 0.8%.

Negative impact on the index was published data on pending transactions of purchase / sale of homes in the U.S., which recorded a decline of -4.3% in December, compared to growth of 1.7% in November. The median forecast was at +0.5%

This is the third report on the U.S. housing market over the last month, which comes out worse than expected, indicating a possible delay in the recovery. On Friday, weaker than expected were data on home sales in the primary market in the U.S.. Before that, on Tuesday, 22 January, not met the expectations of the data on existing home sales in the U.S. market. While the market sees this trend as a temporary slowdown, but if this trend continues in the future, this could have a material adverse impact on the markets, perhaps even causing the correction after recent gains.

Growth indices also constrain ambiguous data quarterly report Caterpillar (CAT). CAT profits in the last reporting quarter was higher than expected, but sales did not reach the level expected by analysts. The company said that by the end of the 1st quarter of 2013 earnings and revenue will be significantly lower than the same period last year.

DOW index components show a mixed trend. At the moment, the leader shares in Caterpillar (CAT, +1.88%). Maximum loss carry stock Alcoa (AA, -1.44%).

All sectors of the index S & P, but two are in the red zone. The maximum loss is the basic materials sector (-0.5%). Grows only technology sector (+0.4%) and sector conglomerates (0.1%).

At the close:

Dow -13.67 13,882.31 -0.10%

Nasdaq +4.59 3,154.30 +0.15%

S & P -2.78 1,500.18 -0.18%

00:30 Australia National Australia Bank's Business Confidence December -9 3

The dollar weakened against most of its 16 major counterparts as investors pared bets the Federal Reserve will signal a change to its asset-buying program at the end of a two-day meeting tomorrow. A record of the U.S. central bank’s Dec. 11-12 meetings released on Jan. 3 showed officials began debating an end to its unprecedented bond-buying as early as this year.

The U.S. currency was 0.2 percent from its lowest in 11 months versus the euro before a report today forecast to show confidence among U.S. consumers declined this month. The Conference Board’s index of U.S. consumer sentiment fell to 64 from a 65.1 reading in December, according to the median forecast of economists surveyed by Bloomberg News before data due today.

In Germany, a report by GfK SE (GFK) due today may indicate a rebound in confidence about the euro area’s biggest economy. The market research company’s consumer-sentiment index will probably climb to 5.7 in February, economists polled by Bloomberg said, after it dropped to 5.6 this month, the least since December 2011.

The yen declined versus its most-traded peers as Asian stocks rose, damping demand for currencies of nations with low yields.

New Zealand’s dollar rose, snapping a three-day drop as figures showed the nation’s annual trade deficit unexpectedly narrowed.

EUR/USD: during the Asian session, the pair traded in the range of $ 1.3440-60.

GBP/USD: during the Asian session the pair was trading around $ 1.5700.

USD/JPY: during the Asian session, the pair traded in the range of Y90.40-00.

Its another light day of European data Tuesday, although there is a full calendar in he US. The main feature will be the FOMC meeting, which starts today and concludes Wednesday. In Europe, at 0710GMT, the German GfK Feb consumer confidence numbers will be released. At 1100GMT, ECB Executive Board member Peter Praet is scheduled to give a speech at the Danish Top Executive Summit, in Copenhagen. At 1800GMT, ECB Executive Board member Joerg Asmussen is to give a speech at rotary club, in Gluecksbrug (Germany). Sovereign issuance Tuesday sees only bill sales in the eurozone, with Italy set to issue a new 6-month Jul 31 BOT for E8.5bln.

Change % Change Last

Oil $96.27 -0.17 -0.18%

Gold $1,654.00 -2.60 -0.16%

Change % Change Last

Nikkei 225 10,824.31 -102.34 -0.94%

Hang Seng 23,671.88 +91.45 +0.39%

S&P/ASX 200 4,835.17 +24.95 +0.52%

Shanghai Composite 2,346.51 +55.20 +2.41%

FTSE 100 6,294.41 +9.96 +0.16%

CAC 40 3,780.89 +2.73 +0.07%

DAX 7,833 -24.97 -0.32%

Dow -13.67 13,882.31 -0.10%

Nasdaq +4.59 3,154.30 +0.15%

S&P -2.78 1,500.18 -0.18%

(pare/closed(00:00 GMT +02:00)/change, %)

EUR/USD $1,3454 -0,04%

GBP/USD $1,5693 -0,75%

USD/CHF Chf0,9261 -0,05%

USD/JPY Y90,84 -0,09%

EUR/JPY Y122,23 -0,11%

GBP/JPY Y142,55 -0,81%

AUD/USD $1,0416 -0,07%

NZD/USD $0,8337 -0,01%

USD/CAD C$1,0059 -0,04%

00:30 Australia National Australia Bank's Business Confidence December -9

07:00 Germany Gfk Consumer Confidence Survey February 5.6 5.8

14:00 U.S. S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices, y/y November +4.3% +5.6%

15:00 U.S. Consumer confidence January 65.1 64.5

21:30 U.S. API Crude Oil Inventories - +3.2

21:45 New Zealand Building Permits, m/m December -5.4% +6.0%