CFD Markets News and Forecasts — 24-01-2013

The yen fell for the first time in four days versus the dollar after Deputy Economy Minister Yasutoshi Nishimura said its decline isn’t over and a level of 100 versus the U.S. currency wouldn’t be a concern.

The Japanese currency dropped against all of its 16 most- traded peers after a Chinese report showed manufacturing expanded at the fastest in two years, reducing demand for the yen as a refuge. Japan’s currency fell in early Asian trading after HSBC Holdings Plc and Markit Economics said their preliminary reading of China’s Purchasing Managers’ Index increased to 51.9 in January from 51.5 the previous month. The data suggest China’s expansion at the start of 2013 will equal or exceed its 7.9 percent pace in the fourth quarter.

The euro strengthened against most of its major counterparts after Markit Economics released its survey of purchasing managers in manufacturing and services.

A composite index based on the survey climbed to 48.2 this month from 47.2 in December, the data showed. A reading below 50 indicates contraction.

Asian currencies also fell against the dollar after it was reported that North Korea may begin testing nuclear weapons.

Exchange rate euro strengthened against the dollar after the regional report showed that activity in the private sector continued to decline in January, but at a slower pace than many economists had forecast. According to the data, the composite index of production, which measures activity in the manufacturing sector and the services sector rose this month to 10-month high, reaching 48.2, compared to 47.2 in December, as well as the expectations of experts at around 47, 5. Meanwhile, the index of business activity in the services sector rose to a level of 48.3, up from 47.8 in December, while the index of business activity in the manufacturing sector rose to 47.5 from 46.1 mark.

The pound fell after the published data on the UK showed that the number of approved applications for mortgage loans remained almost unchanged in December, reaching with 33.6 thousand units, while analysts had expected growth to 34.1. Not helped the pound and retail sales data, which growth slowed slightly in January, but was still higher than expected. According to studies, which cover the first two weeks of January 2013, 41% of retailers reported an increase in sales compared to last year, while 24% reported a fall, resulting in retail sales was 17. Note that the average predicted value of this index was to drop to 10, compared to 19 in December.

European stocks climbed to their highest level since February 2011 as jobless claims in the U.S. fell to a five-year low and the House of Representatives voted to temporarily suspend the federal government’s borrowing limit.

A Labor Department report today showed claims for jobless benefits in the U.S. unexpectedly dropped last week. Applications for unemployment insurance payments decreased by 5,000 to 330,000 in the week ended Jan. 19, the fewest since the same week in 2008. Economists had forecast 355,000 claims, according to the median estimate in a survey.

The U.S. House of Representatives approved legislation to suspend the borrowing limit late yesterday. The measure, which passed 285-144, lifts the government’s $16.4 trillion borrowing limit until May 19.

In China, manufacturing expanded at the fastest rate in two years, according to a survey of companies by Markit and HSBC Holdings Plc. The preliminary reading of their purchasing managers’ index rose to 51.9 in January, from 51.5 in December. That compares with the median estimate of 51.7 in a survey. HSBC and Markit will report their final reading for January on Feb. 1.

National benchmark indexes advanced in 14 of the 18 western-European markets. The U.K.’s FTSE 100 gained 1.1 percent, while France’s CAC 40 added 0.7 percent. Germany’s DAX rose 0.5 percent.

EasyJet rallied 5.1 percent to 898.5 pence, the highest price since its initial public offering in November 2000. Revenue jumped 9.2 percent to 833 million pounds ($1.3 billion) in the three months ended Dec. 31, compared with 763 million pounds a year earlier, the Luton, England-based company said. The airline forecast that it will post a pretax loss of 50 million pounds to 75 million pounds in the first half of 2013.

Ryanair Holdings Plc, Europe’s biggest discount airline, rose 2.7 percent to 5.40 euros in Dublin, its highest price in more than five years.

Vodafone jumped 3.2 percent to 168.7 pence, its biggest gain in five months. Greenlight Capital Re Ltd. wrote in a note that the mobile-phone operator’s valuation implies that its 45 percent stake in Verizon Wireless has no value. The note described the holding as “clearly quite valuable.” Verizon’s market value climbed above Vodafone’s in December for the first time in a decade.

Logitech International SA plunged 9.6 percent to 6.51 Swiss francs. The world’s biggest maker of computer mice put its remote-control and video-security businesses up for sale after posting the loss. The average estimate of seven analysts had called for net income of $50.3 million, according to a survey. Logitech reported third-quarter profit of $55 million in its previous fiscal year.

Oil climbed after reports pointed to accelerating global growth and as the spread between West Texas Intermediate crude in the U.S. and London’s Brent narrowed on speculation the Seaway pipeline will soon resume full shipments.

Futures rose as much as 1.3 percent as U.S. jobless benefit claims fell to a five-year low. WTI’s discount to Brent widened yesterday after Enterprise Products Partners LP said capacity was limited on Seaway, cutting shipments from the central U.S. to the Gulf Coast. An Energy Information Administration report showed crude supplies rose last week.

Applications for unemployment insurance payments decreased by 5,000 to 330,000 in the week ended Jan. 19, the fewest since the same week in 2008, the Labor Department reported today in Washington. Economists forecast 355,000 claims.

The index of U.S. leading indicators rose in December by the most in three months, showing the economy is poised to keep growing through the first half of this year. The Conference Board’s gauge of the outlook for the next three to six months increased 0.5 percent after the November reading was revised to unchanged from a previously reported decline, the New York-based group said today.

China’s manufacturing is expanding, according to a private survey of companies, bolstering prospects that economic growth will accelerate for a second straight quarter. The preliminary reading of a Purchasing Managers’ Index was 51.9 in January, according to a statement from HSBC Holdings Plc and Markit Economics today. That compares with the 51.5 final reading for December and the 51.7 median estimate in a survey.

Nationwide crude stockpiles rose 2.81 million barrels to 363.1 million in the week ended Jan. 18, according to the EIA. A 2.15 million-barrel gain was projected, according to the median of 10 responses in a survey of analysts.

Gasoline inventories declined 1.74 million barrels to 233.3 million, versus an expected gain of 1.25 million. Stockpiles of distillate fuel, a category that includes heating oil and diesel, increased 508,000 barrels to 132.9 million, versus a forecast of no change.

Refineries operated at 83.6 percent of capacity last week, the lowest level since March, the report from the Energy Department’s statistical arm showed.

Crude oil for March delivery gained to $96.68 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

Brent oil for March settlement increased 72 cents, or 0.6 percent, to $113.52 a barrel on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange. Volume was 30 percent above the 100-day average.

The growth of the USD / JPY was caused by a number of representatives of Japan's comments, including the statement that "USD / JPY at Y100 does not cause concern," which brought the price to around Y90 during the New York session.

Also today, there were reports that the head of the Bank for International Settlements Karuna said that aggressive easing taking place in recent years, it becomes counterproductive, and that the Central Bank is under too much pressure from governments that want to first stimulate growth and impaired the currency.

Gold cheaper amid growing confidence in the global economic recovery, which reduces the attractiveness of low-risk assets.

China's manufacturing sector growth accelerated to a two-year high in January, showed preliminary purchasing managers' index (PMI), which is calculated by the order of the bank HSBC.

In the eurozone, the fall in business activity in January slowed by Germany. Record company Markit, brought hope that the economy of the region began in 2013 on a stronger position. According to the data, a preliminary purchasing managers' index (PMI) Eurozone in January rose to 48.2, indicating a slowdown in the rate of decline compared to December, when the index was 47.2.

The preliminary purchasing managers' index (PMI) for the manufacturing U.S. in January rose to 56.1 from the final value of 54.0 in December. The January index was the highest since March 2011. In Markit reported that the PMI index suggests that "growth in the U.S. manufacturing sector has received an even bigger boost in early 2013."

Market participants are waiting for the outcome of the meeting of the Federal Reserve, which will be held next week.

Demand in the physical market in China on the eve of the New Year is not as high as in previous years.

Stocks of the world's largest exchange-traded fund backed by gold ETF SPDR Gold Trust YTD decreased by 16.7 tons.

February futures price of gold on COMEX today fell to 1664.20 dollars per ounce.

After a period of hesitation euro resumed its rise against the dollar, having tested highs this week, despite the overall increase in USD.

EUR / USD was able to break through $ 1.3350 and reach a 4-day high of $ 1.3378, breaking the $ 1.3371, a maximum of 22 January.

Currently the pair is trading around $ 1.3370/80, up 0.4% above its opening price.

U.S. equity futures fell after Apple Inc. (AAPL) reported the slowest profit growth since 2003 and weakest sales increase in 14 quarters.

EUR/USD $1.3250, $1.3300, $1.3350, $1.3385, $1.3400

USD/JPY Y88.50, Y89.00, Y90.00

GBP/USD $1.6025

USD/CHF Chf0.9225, Chf0.9340

AUD/USD $1.0500, $1.055

Data

01:45 China HSBC Manufacturing PMI (preliminary) January 51.5 51.9

08:00 France Manufacturing PMI (preliminary) January 44.6 44.9 42.9

08:00 France Services PMI (preliminary) January 45.2 45.6 43.6

08:30 Germany Manufacturing PMI (preliminary) January 46.0 47.1 48.8

08:30 Germany Services PMI (preliminary) January 52.0 52.0 55.3

09:00 Eurozone Manufacturing PMI (preliminary) January 46.1 46.6 47.5

09:00 Eurozone Services PMI (preliminary) January 47.8 48.1 48.3

09:00 Eurozone Current account, adjusted, bln November 8.0 4.2 14.8

09:00 Switzerland World Economic Forum Annual Meetings -

09:30 United Kingdom BBA Mortgage Approvals December 33.6 34.1 33.6

11:00 United Kingdom CBI retail sales volume balance January 19 14 17

The yen fell for the first time in four days against the dollar after the Deputy Minister of Economy of Japan Nishimura said that the currency collapse is not over, and the level of 100 yen to the U.S. dollar will not be a problem.

The yen fell by at least 0.5 percent against all 16 major currencies, as the Chinese report showed that manufacturing PMI rose in January while still achieving the highest value in the last two years, which immediately led to a fall in demand on the Japanese currency. HSBC Holdings Plc and Markit Economics said its preliminary index of purchasing managers in China increased to 51.9 in January, compared with 51.5 in the previous month. Note that the findings suggest that the growth of China's economy in early 2013 will be equal to or greater than the growth of 7.9% recorded in the fourth quarter.

Asian currencies also fell against the dollar after it was reported that North Korea may begin testing nuclear weapons.

Exchange rate euro strengthened against the dollar after the regional report showed that activity in the private sector continued to decline in January, but at a slower pace than many economists had forecast. According to the data, the composite index of production, which measures activity in the manufacturing sector and the services sector rose this month to 10-month high, reaching 48.2, compared to 47.2 in December, as well as the expectations of experts at around 47, 5. Meanwhile, the index of business activity in the services sector rose to a level of 48.3, up from 47.8 in December, while the index of business activity in the manufacturing sector rose to 47.5 from 46.1 mark.

The pound fell after the published data on the UK showed that the number of approved applications for mortgage loans remained almost unchanged in December, reaching with 33.6 thousand units, while analysts had expected growth to 34.1. Not helped the pound and retail sales data, which growth slowed slightly in January, but was still higher than expected. According to studies, which cover the first two weeks of January 2013, 41% of retailers reported an increase in sales compared to last year, while 24% reported a fall, resulting in retail sales was 17. Note that the average predicted value of this index was to drop to 10, compared to 19 in December.

EUR / USD: during the European session varies in the range of $ 1.3284-$ 1.3347

GBP / USD: during the European session is reduced, and is now trading at $ 1.5803

USD / JPY: during the European session, the pair rose to Y89.71

At 13:30 GMT the United States, there are data on the number of initial claims for unemployment insurance and the number of repeat applications for unemployment benefits in January. At 14:00 GMT Belgium presented index business sentiment for January. At 23:30 GMT Japan will publish the index of consumer prices in the country and in Tokyo in January. At 23:50 GMT Japan released minutes of the meeting of the Bank of Japan on monetary policy in January and preliminary data on industrial production in December.

EUR/USD

Orders $1.3395/405, $1.3380, $1.3350/55

Bids $1.3285/80, $1.3265/60, $1.3250, $1.3230/20

GBP/USD

Orders $1.5980, $1.5950, $1.5900/10, $1.5870/75

Bids $1.5800, $1.5780/70, $1.5755/45

AUD/USD

Orders $1.0590, $1.0560/70, $1.0540

Bids $1.0490/80, $1.0475/70, $1.0455/50, $1.0410/00

EUR/JPY

Orders Y121.00, Y120.50, Y120.00

Bids Y118.65/60, Y118.50, Y118.30/20, Y118.00, Y117.70/50

USD/JPY

Orders Y90.55/60, Y90.50, Y90.40, Y89.70/80

Bids Y89.10/00, Y88.90/80, Y88.50, Y88.00

EUR/GBP

Orders stg0.8500, stg0.8450, stg0.8440, stg0.8430

Bids stg0.8385/75, stg0.8355/50, stg0.8300, stg0.8260

Positive impact on the markets has a positive economic data from China, according to which the preliminary value of the index of industrial purchasing managers of the country, calculated HSBC, was in January of 51.9 points against 51.5 in December and 50.5 points in November.

Along with these encouraging data on the index of business activity in the euro area. The composite index of production, which measures activity in the manufacturing sector and the services sector rose this month to 10-month high, reaching 48.2, compared to 47.2 in December, as well as the expectations of experts at around 47.5. The index of business activity in the services sector rose to a level of 48.3, up from 47.8 in December, while the index of business activity in the manufacturing sector rose to 47.5 from 46.1 mark.

FTSE 100 6,219.54 +21.90 +0.35%

DAX 7,709.33 +1.79 +0.02%

CAC 3,734.67 +10.10 +0.23%

Shares of ARM Holdings Plc, producing microchips for Apple Inc., Fell 1.4%.

The market value of the manufacturer Logitech International SA, produces computer hardware and the world's largest producer of "mouse", fell by 9.2% on news that the company received a loss of $ 195 million at the end of the last quarter.

At the same time, the market capitalization of the budget airline EasyJet Plc rose by 3.7% due to higher sales in October-December.

EUR/USD $1.3250, $1.3300, $1.3350, $1.3385, $1.3400

USD/JPY Y88.50, Y89.00, Y90.00

GBP/USD $1.6025

USD/CHF Chf0.9225, Chf0.9340

Asian stocks swung between gains and losses as Japanese shares rallied on a weaker yen, China’s manufacturing beat estimates and North Korea threatened a nuclear test. Apple Inc.  suppliers fell after the company reported its weakest sales since 2009.

Nikkei 225 10,620.87 +133.88 +1.28%

Hang Seng 23,598.9 -36.20 -0.15%

S&P/ASX 200 4,810.22 +22.40 +0.47%

Shanghai Composite 2,302.6 -18.31 -0.79%

Toyota Motor Corp., the world’s biggest automaker, rose 2.2 percent in Tokyo.

AAC Technologies Holdings Inc., which makes speakers for Apple, dropped 6 percent in Hong Kong.

Asian stocks fell, with Japanese shares trading lower as the yen strengthened a day after the Bank of Japan opted to hold off on fresh monetary stimulus until next year.

Nikkei 225 10,486.99 -222.94 -2.08%

Hang Seng 23,635.1 -23.89 -0.10%

S&P/ASX 200 4,787.83 +8.75 +0.18%

Shanghai Composite 2,320.91 +5.77 +0.25%

Nissan Motor Co., an automaker that gets about a third of its revenue from North America, dropped 2.8 percent in Tokyo.

LG Household & Health Care Ltd., a maker of household products, slumped 7.5 percent in Seoul after forecasting 2013 operating profit that fell short of expectations.

China Vanke Co., the country’s biggest publicly traded property developer, extended gains toward a record in Shenzhen on plans to move trading of its foreign-currency denominated shares to Hong Kong.

European stocks advanced, after remaining little changed for most of the day, as the U.S. House of Representatives gathered to vote on suspending the country’s debt limit and as results from Novartis to Unilever beat analyst estimates.

In the U.S., representatives in the Republican-led House are voting to pass legislation suspending the government’s $16.4 trillion debt limit until May 19. By postponing a decision on raising the debt ceiling, Republicans plan to focus on other deadlines to seek deeper spending cuts from President Barack Obama and congressional Democrats.

In Europe, Spain’s recession deepened in the last quarter of 2012, a report showed. Gross domestic product shrank for a sixth quarter, contracting 0.6 percent from the previous three months, the Bank of Spain said in an estimate.

National benchmark indexes rose in 11 of the 18 western European markets. The U.K.’s FTSE 100 advanced 0.3 percent, while France’s CAC 40 retreated 0.4 percent. Germany’s DAX added 0.2 percent.

Novartis advanced 4.1 percent to 62.55 Swiss francs, the highest price since August 2008, after saying Chairman Daniel Vasella will step down from the board after 17 years, and Bayer AG’s Joerg Reinhardt will take over as non-executive chairman. Fourth-quarter earnings came in at $1.27 per share, beating projections for $1.25.

Unilever gained 3.1 percent to 2,526 pence in London, the highest price since at least September 1988. The world’s second- biggest consumer-goods company posted fourth-quarter underlying sales growth of 7.8 percent, exceeding the average analyst estimate calling for an increase of 6.2 percent.

SAP AG rose 2.4 percent to 59.20 euros after the biggest maker of business-management software forecast full-year profit will increase at least 12 percent. The company’s cloud, mobile and Hana database businesses are “growing fantastically,” Co- Chief Executive Officer Bill McDermott said in an interview.

U.S. stocks rose on a background of strong quarterly reports of companies manufacturing sector and a successful vote in the U.S. Congress on the issue of the level of government debt.

According to trade in high-tech NASDAQ index closed at its highest level since September 24, the broad market index S & P 500 extended series of enhancements to six sessions, the longest series from December 12. The index of "blue chips» DJIA showed growth-fourth session in a row and the ninth time in 10 sessions, and at the end of trading rose to the highest level since Oct. 31, 2007.

Today, the U.S. Congress on the initiative of the Republicans voted for the bill, which would delay the increase in public debt to 18 May. Representatives of President Obama announced that the White House will not block the bill, as it demonstrates agreement not to use the theme of Republicans debt ceiling in the ongoing negotiations on the budget.

Recall that the U.S. December 31, 2012 exceeded the debt ceiling, which currently stands at $ 16.394 trillion. However, the Ministry of Finance has used its reserves to continue to service the debt.

Positive trend for the DOW and NASDAQ indices provide strong quarterly reports from a number of companies that have been published after the close of yesterday's trading session, ahead of the opening today. Notably the financial data for the quarter from International Business Machines Co. (IBM), McDonald's Corp (MCD) and Google (GOOG).

A number of large American manufacturers today released favorable forecasts for 2013 - as a threat to the fiscal cliff was formally prevented, orders began to increase after a pause occurs at the end of the year. In particular, the manufacturer of aerospace and defense technology conglomerate Textron and United Technologies said the revival of demand for their products at the beginning of this year and announced positive forecasts. Finance Director United Tech said that some recovery of the housing market has had a positive impact on the economy as a whole. In turn, top management Textron said it expects to increase sales of corporate aircraft this year.

DOW index components showed a mixed trend. Following the auction leader was led International Business Machines Corp. (IBM, +4.41%). Maximum loss suffered shares Hewlett-Packard (HPQ, -1.39%).

Sector of the S & P also showed a mixed trend. Better than others due to strong quarterly reports of International Business Machines (IBM) and Google (GOOG) looked tech sector (+0.8%). Located below the other sector and utilities (-0.4%).

Internet search engine operator Google jumped 5.5% after it reported a quarterly profit in excess of projections. Net income rose in the fourth quarter by 6.7% to $ 2.89 billion, or $ 8.62 per share, net of certain items was $ 10.65 per share, and exceeded the average forecast of $ 10.50 per share.

Computer giant International Business Machines (IBM) left in plus of 4.4% as against the favorable quarterly report - minus some articles income rose to $ 6.1 billion, or $ 5.39 per share. While sales declined by 1% to $ 29.3 billion, but were still better than expected on Wall Street.

At the close:

S & P 500 1,495.15 +2.59 +0.17%

NASDAQ 3,154.51 +11.33 +0.36%

01:45 China HSBC Manufacturing PMI (preliminary) January 51.5 51.9

The yen weakened as signs of strengthening manufacturing in China damped demand for the relative safety of Japan’s currency, while North Korea’s threat to test nuclear weapons sapped appetite for the region’s assets. North Korea threatened to conduct a nuclear weapons test “targeted” at the U.S. after the Obama administration pushed through new United Nations sanctions against the totalitarian state for last month’s rocket launch. The yen slid versus all of its 16 major counterparts after a private report showed factory output in China, the world’s second-biggest economy, is expanding at the fastest pace in two years. HSBC Holdings Plc and Markit Economics said today the preliminary reading of China’s Purchasing Managers’ Index rose to 51.9 in January from the 51.5 final reading for December and the 51.7 median estimate of analysts surveyed by Bloomberg News. Japan today posted a bigger-than-estimated trade deficit and data tomorrow may show consumer prices fell the most since August. Japanese imports exceeded exports by 641.5 billion yen ($7.2 billion) last month, compared to a 954.8 billion yen gap in November, the Ministry of Finance said today. The median estimate of economists surveyed by Bloomberg News was for a 522.8 billion yen shortfall. Exports in December dropped by more than forecast, and the annual trade deficit was a record 6.93 trillion yen, the data showed.

The euro failed to rally after the International Monetary Fund cut global growth forecasts and projected a second year of contraction in the currency bloc. The world economy will expand 3.5 percent this year, less than the 3.6 percent forecast in October, the Washington-based IMF said yesterday in an update of its World Economic Outlook report. It expects the 17-country euro area to shrink 0.2 percent in 2013, instead of growing 0.2 percent as forecast in October.

EUR/USD: during the Asian session, the pair traded in the range of $1.3295-25.

GBP/USD: during the Asian session the pair fell to $1.5810.

USD/JPY: during the Asian session, the pair rose to Y89.30.

Change % Change Last

Oil 95.56 +0.33 +0.35%

Gold 1,685.20 -1.50 -0.09%

Change % Change Last

Nikkei 225 10,486.99 -222.94 -2.08%

Hang Seng 23,635.1 -23.89 -0.10%

S&P/ASX 200 4,787.83 +8.75 +0.18%

Shanghai Composite 2,320.91 +5.77 +0.25%

FTSE 100 6,197.64 +18.47 +0.30%

CAC 40 3,726.17 -14.84 -0.40%

DAX 7,707.54 +11.33 +0.15%

S&P 500 1,495.15 +2.59 +0.17%

NASDAQ 3,154.51 +11.33 +0.36%

Dow 13,779.24 +67.03 +0.49%

(pare/closed(00:00 GMT +02:00)/change, %)

EUR/USD $1,3317 -0,04%

GBP/USD $1,5843 +0,04%

USD/CHF Chf0,9292 0,00%

USD/JPY Y88,59 -0,12%

EUR/JPY Y118,00 -0,15%

GBP/JPY Y140,37 -0,07%

AUD/USD $1,0554 -0,09%

NZD/USD $0,8402 -0,07%

USD/CAD C$0,9990 +0,73%

01:45 China HSBC Manufacturing PMI (preliminary) January 51.5 51.9

08:00 France Manufacturing PMI (preliminary) January 44.6 44.9

08:00 France Services PMI (preliminary) January 45.2 45.6

08:30 Germany Manufacturing PMI (preliminary) January 46.0 47.1

08:30 Germany Services PMI (preliminary) January 52.0 52.0

09:00 Eurozone Manufacturing PMI (preliminary) January 46.1 46.6

09:00 Eurozone Services PMI (preliminary) January 47.8 48.1

09:00 Eurozone Current account, adjusted, bln November 3.9 4.2

09:00 Switzerland World Economic Forum Annual Meetings -

09:30 United Kingdom BBA Mortgage Approvals December 33.6 34.1

11:00 United Kingdom CBI retail sales volume balance January 19 14

13:30 U.S. Initial Jobless Claims - 335 361

14:00 Belgium Business Climate January -11.8 -10.9

14:00 U.S. Manufacturing PMI (preliminary) January 54.2 53.2

15:00 U.S. Leading Indicators December -0.2% +0.4%

16:00 U.S. Crude Oil Inventories - -1.0

23:30 Japan National Consumer Price Index, y/y December -0.2% -0.2%

23:30 Japan National CPI Ex-Fresh Food, y/y December -0.1% -0.2%

23:30 Japan Tokyo Consumer Price Index, y/y January -0.6% -0.6%

23:30 Japan Tokyo CPI ex Fresh Food, y/y January -0.6% -0.5%