CFD Markets News and Forecasts — 22-01-2013

The yen advanced the most in eight months against the dollar after the Bank of Japan said it will conduct open-ended asset purchases starting in January 2014, disappointing investors who expected bolder action sooner. Japan’s currency advanced from almost its weakest versus the dollar since June 2010 as the BOJ under outgoing Governor Masaaki Shirakawa said it will buy 13 trillion yen ($146.6 billion) in assets a month from January 2014 and set a 2 percent inflation target.

The euro rose for the first time in three days against the dollar after data showed that the level of confidence among German investors rose in January to its highest level for the last 2.5 years, adding a sign that Europe's largest economy is gaining momentum. The single currency also rose after the Bundesbank representative has denied speculation that Weidmann plans to step down as president of the central bank of Germany.

Later, the euro fell against the deterioration of statistics from the U.S.. As it became known today, sales in the secondary housing market of the United States unexpectedly fell by 1% m / m to 4.94 million, and, according to a Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, economic activity slowed in December.

The pound rose against the dollar, despite the fact that the published data showed a sharp drop in the balance of industrial orders. It is learned that the balance of industrial orders fell in January to the level of -20, compared to -12 in December. Note that according to the average forecast of experts value of this indicator should have been -11. In addition, for the three months ended in January, the balance of industrial orders up 4, contrary to expectations, at 8. However, the rate of decline was much less than -13 in the third quarter.

European stocks were little changed as German investor confidence surged, offsetting an unexpected decline in U.S. sales of existing homes.

German investor confidence increased to the highest in 2 1/2 years in January. The ZEW Center for European Economic Research in Mannheim said its index of investor and analyst expectations, which aims to predict economic developments six months in advance, climbed to 31.5 from 6.9 in December. That’s the highest since May 2010. Economists forecast a gain to 12.

Sales of U.S. existing homes unexpectedly dropped in December, restrained by the lowest supply of properties in more than a decade.

Purchases fell 1 percent to a 4.94 million annual rate last month, the National Association of Realtors said in a report in Washington. That’s the second-highest reading since November 2009. The median forecast of 79 economists called for sales to increase to a 5.1 million rate.

In Asia, the Bank of Japan said it will shift to Federal Reserve-style open-ended asset purchases in its strongest commitment yet to ending two decades of deflation.

National benchmark indexes fell in 11 of the 18 western European markets. The U.K.’s FTSE 100 was little changed, while France’s CAC 40 slipped 0.6 percent. Germany’s DAX lost 0.7 percent.

Vivendi SA, Europe’s biggest media and telecommunications company, lost 4 percent to 16.08 euros. Stephane Roussel, chief executive officer of Vivendi’s SFR phone business, said the unit expects a tough market for as long as 18 months, according to an interview published in Le Parisien.

Rightmove Plc gained 2.8 percent to 1,599 pence as UBS AG upgraded the British property-listings website owner to buy from neutral, saying that its competitive strengths remain intact.

Opap SA rallied 5.1 percent to 6.95 euros after Greek officials met to coordinate state asset-disposal plans, which include the sale of a 33 percent stake in Greece’s biggest gambling company.

Drillisch AG jumped 3.7 percent to 12.30 euros, its highest price in more than 12 years. The German telephone-services provider said it will increase its 2012 dividend to 1 euro a share from 70 cents a year earlier.

Rolling back the euro area was reserved $ 1.3275, and the pair has recovered above the level of $ 1.3300.

EUR / USD traded most of the day in a wide range of $ 1.3265/1.3370, but each time returned to the $ 1.3300/10 area. Now the pair is at $ 1.3305, almost flat compared to the opening price.

Oil increased as German investor confidence climbed to a 2 1/2-year high and a Bloomberg survey showed that international optimism about equities gained.

Futures rose as much as 0.5 percent after Germany’s ZEW Center for European Economic Research said its index of investor and analyst forecasts climbed to 31.5 from 6.9 last month. Global investors are the most bullish on stocks in at least 3 1/2 years, with almost two-thirds planning to boost holdings during the next six months, a Bloomberg survey showed.

The ZEW index, which aims to predict German economic developments six months in advance, advanced to the highest level since May 2010 and the biggest gain in 11 months. Economists forecast an increase to 12, according to the median of 39 estimates in a Bloomberg survey.

Watching Equities

Crude oil for February delivery rose 66 cents to the intraday high of $96.22 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. February futures expire today. The more- active March contract advanced 60 cents to $96.64. Yesterday’s transactions will be booked with today’s trades for settlement purposes as there was no floor trading because of the Martin Luther King Jr. Day holiday.

Brent oil for March settlement gained 37 cents, or 0.3 percent, to $112.08 a barrel on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange.

The European benchmark traded at a $15.44 premium to West Texas Intermediate crude futures traded in New York. The spread was $15.16 on Jan. 17, the narrowest level based on closing prices since July 24.

The spread has shrunk since Enterprise Products Partners LP (EPD) and Enbridge Inc. (ENB) resumed service of the Seaway pipeline running from Cushing to the Gulf Coast on Jan. 11 at a capacity of 400,000 barrels a day, up from 150,000 barrels. The link provides an outlet for record supplies in the central U.S.

Gold futures rose in New York after the Bank of Japan announced stimulus measures, increasing demand for the precious metal as a store of value.

The central bank said today it will buy about 13 trillion yen ($146 billion) in assets per month from January 2014 and set a 2 percent inflation target. Bullion gained 7 percent last year as stimulus programs in the U.S., Europe and Japan enhanced the appeal of the precious metal as an alternative to currencies.

India, the biggest bullion consumer in 2011, raised import duties on gold and platinum to 6 percent immediately from 4 percent. Physical gold purchases will probably slow significantly after being very strong early this year, said Nick Trevethan, senior commodities strategist at Australia & New Zealand Banking Group Ltd.

Gold futures for February delivery rose to $1,695.60 an ounce on the Comex in New York. Last week, prices jumped 1.6 percent and climbed to $1,697.80, the highest price for a most-active contract since Dec. 18. The exchange was closed yesterday for a public holiday.

During the European session, the pair GBP / USD noted at least $ 1.5808 against the general risk aversion, but even the disappointing British statistics could not prevent the Briton to win back some losses and some grow.

The net borrowings amounted PSNB in December £ 15.4 billion (vs. £ 15.2 billion), which brought the total figure as the year to date to around £ 106.5 billion - about £ 7 billion worse than a year ago. The rate of new production orders CBI also disappointingly fell from -12 to -20.

The first attempt was stopped by the growth in the high of $ 1.5880, then the pair retreated and was able to update the intraday high of $ 1.5883. At 19:45 GMT is expected to address the Bank of England King, which can affect the mood of investors. Currently GBP / USD is trading higher by 0.20% at around $ 1.5860/70.

U.S. stock-index futures are mixed after benchmark indexes climbed to five-year highs last week, as investors weighed corporate earnings and awaited a report on existing home sales.
Shares of Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) dropped  after providing a full-year forecast that was less than analysts estimated. Shares of Verizon Communications Inc. (VZ) fell too as it reported a decline in adjusted earnings.  Shares of DuPont Co. (DD) advanced as fourth-quarter profit beat estimates.

Global Stocks:

Other:

Monness Crespi & Hardt reiterated Apple (AAPL) at Buy, target lowered from $750 to $670.

EUR/USD $1.3275, $1.3300, $1.3350, $1.3400

USD/JPY Y88.50, Y88.80, Y89.00, Y90.00

EUR/JPY Y120.00

EUR/CHF Chf1.2300, Chf1.2500, Chf1.2515, Chf1.2550

AUD/USD $1.0525

Data

04:00 Japan BoJ Interest Rate Decision - 0.10% 0.10% 0.10%

04:00 Japan BoJ Monetary Policy Statement -

04:30 Japan All Industry Activity Index, m/m November +0.2% -0.3% -0.3%

07:30 Japan BOJ Press Conference -

09:00 Eurozone ECOFIN Meetings January

09:30 United Kingdom PSNB, bln December 15.3 13.4 13.2

10:00 Germany ZEW Survey - Economic Sentiment January 6.9 12.2 31.5

10:00 Eurozone ZEW Economic Sentiment January 7.6 14.1 31.2

11:00 United Kingdom CBI industrial order books balance January -12 -10 -20

The yen rose against the dollar, significantly departing from the lowest level since June 2010 after the Bank of Japan said it will hold open buying assets in 2014, which immediately disappoint many investors who expected a more decisive action .

Japan's currency has increased by at least 0.2% against all 16 major counterparts after the Bank of Japan said it will buy assets worth about 13 trillion yen per month from January to January 2014. In addition, the Bank of Japan today decided to introduce inflation target of 2%, and even more ease monetary policy. At the end of the two-day meeting of the Board of the Bank approved the seven-to-two decision on introduction of the inflation target of 2% instead of the current benchmark of 1%, which Abe has criticized as too weak commitment.

The euro rose for the first time in three days against the dollar after data showed that the level of confidence among German investors rose in January to its highest level for the last 2.5 years, adding a sign that Europe's largest economy is gaining momentum.

The single currency also rose after the Bundesbank representative has denied speculation that Weidmann plans to step down as president of the central bank of Germany.

The pound rose against the dollar, setting all new session high, even despite the fact that the published data showed a sharp drop in the balance of industrial orders.

It is learned that the balance of industrial orders fell in January to the level of -20, compared to -12 in December. Note that according to the average forecast of experts value of this indicator should have been -11. In addition, for the three months ended in January, the balance of industrial orders up 4, contrary to expectations, at 8. However, the rate of decline was much less than -13 in the third quarter.

EUR / USD: during the European session, the pair rose to $ 1.3370, and then fell sharply to $ 1.3265, and is now trading at $ 1.3311

GBP / USD: during the European session after falling to $ 1.5806 rose to $ 1.5870

USD / JPY: during the European session the pair fell to Y88.36

At 13:30 GMT, Canada will report on changes in the volume of retail sales for November and the change in retail sales excluding auto sales for November. At 15:00 GMT the U.S. are data on the volume of sales in the secondary market in December. At 21:30 GMT the U.S. become aware of changes in the volume of crude oil, according to the API for January. Finish the day at 23:30 GMT Australia publication of the index of leading economic indicators from the Melbourne Institute in November.

EUR/USD

Offers $1.3430, $1.3395/405, $1.3380

Bids $1.3260/50, $1.3240, $1.3230/20, $1.3205/00

GBP/USD

Offers $1.5980, $1.5950, $1.5920, $1.5900/10

Bids $1.5800, $1.5770, $1.5755/45

AUD/USD

Offers $1.0635/40, $1.0590, $1.0579

Bids $1.0520, $1.0510/00, $1.0490/80, $1.0475/70, $1.0455/50

EUR/JPY

Offers Y120.00, Y119.35/40, Y119.00, Y118.80

Bids Y117.80/75, Y117.60, Y117.00, Y116.60

EUR/GBP

Offers stg0.8500, stg0.8440/50

Bids stg0.8380/75, stg0.8355/50, stg0.8300, stg0.8260

USD/JPY

Offers Y90.40, Y89.90/00, Y89.70, Y89.15/20

Bids Y88.20, Y88.00, Y87.50

Stock Index Europe is pressing fact of disagreement among eurozone finance ministers on the question of providing direct finpomoschi banks.

However, the finance ministers of the eurozone countries approved the allocation of the next tranche of emergency aid to Greece. The volume of payments in this month of 9.2 billion euros, or 12.3 billion dollars is also approved as the new head of the Eurogroup of finance minister Netherlands Jeroen Deysselblum.

Adds confidence to the financial markets with information from the report of the ECB. At the end of 2012 the European Union has closed 511 banks. Most banks were closed in Luxembourg - 124. Next comes France with 105 closed institutions. Italy on the third line, where closed 55 financial institutions.

The European Central Bank noted that the stoppage of the banks was not only due to bankruptcy, but also as a result of mergers and acquisitions.

Sentiment index released today in the business environment of the institute ZEW rose in January by 24.6 points, reaching 31.5. Note that this value was a big surprise to many economists, since, according to the average forecast value of this indicator was increased to level 12, up from 6.9 in December.

FTSE 100 6,181.92 +0.94 +0.02%

DAX 7,710.82 -38.04 -0.49%

CAC 3,755.32 -7.71 -0.20%

Shares of the conglomerate media companies Vivendi SA fell 2.1%. Telephone unit Vivendi expects difficult market conditions over the next year and a half.

Stock ticker BP Plc declined by 0,5%, Total SA - 0.8%.

The market value of Siemens AG rose 1.1%. According to media reports, the company's profit in the last quarter was 1.3 billion euros, which corresponds to the same quarter last year.

The capitalization of the chip maker ASML Holding NV increased by 0.8%, generating National Grid Plc - 0.4%.

EUR/USD $1.3275, $1.3300, $1.3350, $1.3400

USD/JPY Y88.50, Y88.80, Y89.00, Y90.00

EUR/JPY Y120.00

EUR/CHF Chf1.2300, Chf1.2500, Chf1.2515, Chf1.2550

AUD/USD $1.0525

AUD/NZD NZ$1.2570

Asian stocks outside Japan climbed as Samsung Electronics Co. rebounded from a one-month low. The Nikkei 225 Stock Average dropped for a second day as the yen gained after the Bank of Japan said it will wait until next year to start open-ended asset purchases in pursuit of a 2 percent inflation target.

Nikkei 225 10,709.93 -37.81 -0.35%

Hang Seng 23,658.99 +68.08 +0.29%

S&P/ASX 200 4,779.08 +1.58 +0.03%

Shanghai Composite 2,315.14 -13.08 -0.56%

Samsung Electronics, the first South Korean company to be worth more than $200 billion, rose 1.8 percent, erasing yesterday’s decline to the lowest since Dec. 21.

China Merchants Holdings International Ltd., a container port operator, jumped 9.4 percent after a report that the government of Shenzhen is reviewing the use of land the company co-owns.

- Sold 12-month Letra at avg yield 0.441% vs 1.195% prev
- Sold 18-month Letra at avg yield 0.888% vs 1.609% prev

The yen strengthened against the dollar, departing from the weakest level since June 2010, as officials of the Bank of Japan began its two-day meeting.

Note that in the last month, Japan's currency fell 5.9% against the dollar on speculation that the Bank of Japan, under pressure from the government to increase the incentive program to pull the economy out of recession.

As it became known, most economists predict that the Bank of Japan will increase its program to purchase assets worth 10 trillion yen increase. Recall that Abe also stands for the same increase in incentive programs, and calls for the central bank to double its inflation target of 2%.

Frank continued to strengthen against the euro Friday after last week, it fell to the lowest level since the moment when the Swiss National Bank imposed restrictions on the currency in 2011.

The pound rose against the dollar, which has been associated with the publication of the data, which showed that house prices in the UK rose in January, along with the number of new sellers, as well as improved mood among market participants. According to the report, housing prices in the first week of January rose 0.2%, compared with a fall of 3.3% in December. At the same time, annualized prices were 2.4% higher than during the same month last year.

The euro was little changed against the dollar, even though the fact that the data showed that producer price inflation in Germany rose in December, but at a slower pace than expected.

It is learned that the price of industrial products rose an annualized 1.5%, compared to growth of 1.4%. Note that the annual growth rate is projected to have been 1.7%. At the same time, in monthly terms the index of consumer prices fell by 0.3%, compared with a fall of 0.1% in the past month, as well as experts' expectations at 0.0%

Most Asian stocks fell amid speculation shares may have risen too far, too fast. Japanese shares as the yen climbed against the dollar after hitting its lowest level in 2 1/2 years.

Nikkei 225 10,747.74 -165.56 -1.52%

Hang Seng 23,590.91 -10.87 -0.05%

S&P/ASX 200 4,777.5 +6.27 +0.13%

Shanghai Composite 2,328.22 +11.15 +0.48%

Sims Metal Management Ltd., the world’s largest scrap metal recycler, dropped 5 percent in Sydney as an internal investigation revealed potential fraud at two of its U.K. businesses.

Fanuc Corp. slid 3.9 percent in Tokyo after the factory-robotics company’s rating was cut at Citigroup Inc.

China Vanke Co., the country’s biggest publicly traded property developer, surged 10 percent in Shenzhen on plans to move trading of its foreign-currency denominated shares to Hong Kong.

European stocks climbed to a one- week high as euro-area finance ministers met for the first time this year to address the region’s debt crisis.

Euro-area finance ministers gathered in Brussels today to discuss how to channel firewall funds to banks. Policy makers were likely to debate how and when the 500 billion-euro ($666 billion) European Stability Mechanism can bypass governments.

In Asia, the Bank of Japan will expand asset purchases when a two-day meeting concludes tomorrow, according to all 23 economists in a Bloomberg survey. The median estimate projects a 10 trillion yen ($111 billion) increase.

National benchmark indexes climbed in 14 of Europe’s 18 western markets. France’s CAC 40 gained 0.5 percent and the U.K.’s FTSE 100 advanced 0.4 percent, while Germany’s DAX increased 0.6 percent. The Swiss Market Index fell 0.4 percent.

Admiral surged 5.3 percent to 1,215 pence as Goldman Sachs raised its recommendation to buy from neutral and added the shares to its “conviction buy” list, citing the stock’s underperformance over the past six months.

Richemont led luxury companies lower, tumbling 5.6 percent to 74.30 Swiss francs for the biggest decline since June 1. The maker of Cartier jewelry said third-quarter revenue rose 9.3 percent to 2.86 billion euros ($3.8 billion), missing the 2.91 billion-euro average of seven analyst estimates, after Asia Pacific sales stagnated.

Sky Deutschland AG declined 5.4 percent to 4.49 euros after the German pay-TV company forecast a wider-than-estimated annual loss and said it will sell 20.4 million new shares at 4.46 euros apiece.

U.S. stocks closed today for the Martin Luther King Jr. holiday

04:00 Japan BoJ Interest Rate Decision - 0.10% 0.10% 0.10%

04:00 Japan BoJ Monetary Policy Statement -

04:30 Japan All Industry Activity Index, m/m November +0.2% -0.3% -0.3%

07:30 Japan BOJ Press Conference -

The yen gained, reversing earlier losses, after the Bank of Japan (8301) announced open-ended asset purchases and adopted a 2 percent inflation target. The BOJ said it will buy about 13 trillion yen ($145 billion) in assets per month from January 2014, including about 2 trillion yen in Japanese government bonds and about 10 trillion yen in treasury bills. The move to double the inflation goal was forecast by 21 of the 23 economists surveyed by Bloomberg. Japanese Finance Minister Taro Aso said earlier today that the 2 percent inflation target would represent substantial progress.

Demand for the euro was bolstered ahead of German data forecast to show an improvement in economic sentiment. The ZEW Center for European Economic Research in Mannheim will probably say today its index of investor and analyst expectations, which aims to predict economic developments six months in advance, climbed to 12 this month, the highest since April, according to the median estimate of economists surveyed by Bloomberg. That compares with a reading of 6.9 in December.

In the U.S., sales of existing homes probably climbed 1.2 percent to a 5.1 million annual rate last month, the strongest since November 2009, according to the median estimate of economists polled by Bloomberg before the National Association of Realtors publishes the figures today. Another report this week may say new-home sales picked up to a 385,000 annual pace, the best showing since April 2010.

EUR/USD: during the Asian session, the pair rose to $1.3355.

GBP/USD: during the Asian session, the pair rose to $1.5860.

USD/JPY: during the Asian session, the pair traded in the range of Y88.90-Y90.15.

UK borrowing data due for release at 0930GMT, with CBI trends at 1100GMT providing domestic interest.

Change % Change Last

Oil $95.47 +0.08 +0.08%

Gold $1,689.70 +2.70 +0.16%

Change % Change Last

Nikkei 225 10,747.74 -165.56 -1.52%

Hang Seng 23,590.91 -10.87 -0.05%

S&P/ASX 200 4,777.5 +6.27 +0.13%

Shanghai Composite 2,328.22 +11.15 +0.48%

FTSE 100 6,180.98 +26.57 +0.43%

CAC 40 3,763.03 +21.45 +0.57%

DAX 7,748.86 +46.63 +0.61%

Dow Closed

Nasdaq Closed

S&P Closed

(pare/closed(00:00 GMT +02:00)/change, %)

EUR/USD $1,3313 -0,05%

GBP/USD $1,5829 -0,28%

USD/CHF Chf0,9323 -0,19%

USD/JPY Y89,59 -0,50%

EUR/JPY Y119,28 +0,04%

GBP/JPY Y141,84 -0,75%

AUD/USD $1,0515 +0,08%

NZD/USD $0,8360 -0,05%

USD/CAD C$0,9927 +0,10%

04:00 Japan BoJ Interest Rate Decision - 0.10% 0.10%

04:00 Japan BoJ Monetary Policy Statement -

04:30 Japan All Industry Activity Index, m/m November +0.2% -0.3%

07:30 Japan BOJ Press Conference -

09:00 Eurozone ECOFIN Meetings January

09:30 United Kingdom PSNB, bln December 15.3 13.4

10:00 Germany ZEW Survey - Economic Sentiment January 6.9 12.2

10:00 Eurozone ZEW Economic Sentiment January 7.6 14.1

11:00 United Kingdom CBI industrial order books balance January -12 -10

13:30 Canada Retail Sales, m/m November +0.7% 0.0%

13:30 Canada Retail Sales ex Autos, m/m November +1.7%

15:00 U.S. Existing Home Sales December 5.04 5.09

15:00 U.S. Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index January 5 4

18:00 Eurozone ECB President Mario Draghi Speaks -