CFD Markets News and Forecasts — 17-01-2013

The euro approached a 10-month high against the dollar as a result of placement of bonds of Spain in the amount 4.505 billion euros, which corresponds to the top of the targeted range of 3.5-4.5 billion euros, the cost of borrowing has fallen, which also led to increased confidence in European debt market.

The cost of the single currency rose against all 16 major peers, while the yen fell to its weakest level since 2010 against the dollar, as the newspaper learned that the Bank of Japan (8301) is preparing for further stimulation as early as next week. It is expected that the government will launch a program of asset purchases and unrestricted will use it for as long as inflation does not reach the target mark of 2.0%. The Central Bank will also consider reducing the lower limit of the range of short-term interest rates to zero, and, possibly, lower. In addition, the Minister of Economy, Akira Amari told reporters that his comments that excessive weakening currency was harmful, were misinterpreted. He added that the yen continues to suffer from over-capacity.

The Swiss franc fell to its weakest level against the euro since September 2011, when the central bank introduced a limit on the franc's exchange rate at CHF1, 2 euro. Swiss currency fell against all 16 most-traded currencies, except the yen as speculation that the debt crisis in Europe weakened, undermined the demand for assets seekers.

Earlier, the dollar regained some of its losses against the euro after data showed that housing starts in the U.S. grew by 12.1% last month, which was more than expected. At the same time, another report showed that the number of initial claims for unemployment benefits fell last week to 335,000 while still achieving the lowest level since January 2008.

The Australian dollar fell against most major currencies after a report showed that employers in the country unexpectedly cut jobs in December at 5,500, compared with estimates economist at 4000 people.

European stocks gained the most in a week as retailers climbed on increased revenue and U.S. housing starts jumped more than forecast to a four-year high.

Carrefour SA, France’s biggest retailer, Delhaize Group SA, the Belgian owner of Food Lion supermarkets, and Associated British Foods Plc (ABF) advanced more than 3 percent. Petropavlovsk Plc surged the most in four months after the gold producer reported better-than-forecast output.

The Stoxx Europe 600 Index (SXXP) rose 0.5 percent to 287.35 at the close of trading, the biggest increase since Jan. 9.

National benchmark indexes climbed in all of the 18 western European markets, except Iceland.

FTSE 100 6,132.36 +28.38 +0.46% CAC 40 3,744.11 +35.62 +0.96% DAX 7,735.46 +44.33 +0.58%

Carrefour jumped 6.1 percent to 20.50 euros, the biggest gain since August. The retailer reported a 0.8 percent increase in fourth-quarter sales because of growth in Latin America, and said business continued to improve in France.

Delhaize surged 10 percent to 35.23 euros, the largest advance since March 2009. The company said its U.S. unit had the best quarterly performance since 2006, spurring organic revenue growth of 2.5 percent for the whole company.

AB Foods gained 3.2 percent to 1,606 pence, the highest price since at least 1986, after saying first-quarter revenue increased 10 percent. The owner of the discount-clothing Primark chain said sales at the unit surged 25 percent.

Petropavlovsk surged 8.9 percent to 403.3 pence, the biggest rally since Sept. 14. The miner of gold in Russia said 2012 output rose 13 percent to 710,400 ounces, beating its 700,000-ounce guidance.

Remy Cointreau SA increased 3.8 percent to 91.78 euros after third-quarter organic revenue rose 0.5 percent, compared with estimates of analysts for a 0.6 percent decline. The company, which produces the Remy Martin cognac, also said cognac sales increased 1.7 percent.

Veolia Environnement SA rose 3.2 percent to 8.88 euros, its biggest gain in five weeks. Chief Executive Officer Antoine Frerot said the world’s largest water company is ahead in a two- year plan to cut debt, costs and sell assets.

SAP declined 1.5 percent to 58.13 euros after Citigroup lowered its recommendation on the stock to neutral from buy. The shares fell the most in six months on Jan. 15 as the world’s biggest maker of business-management software reported fourth- quarter earnings that trailed analysts’ estimates.

The cost of oil has risen today, reaching a four-month high at the same time, which was associated with the release of data that showed that the launches of new homes rose more than expected. At the same time, another report showed that the number of initial claims for unemployment benefits dropped to a five-year low.

Oil futures have risen by 1.6%, as the Ministry of Commerce said that housing starts last month rose by 12.1% to 954,000 per annum, reaching a maximum at the same time in June 2008. Meanwhile, the unemployment figures showed that the number of initial applications for benefits fell last week by 37,000 to 335,000 claims.

Economists say that the economic data has been positive and the market reacted accordingly. In addition, these figures give us reason to believe that the future demand for oil will be stronger.

Recall that yesterday futures rose 1% after a report by the Energy Information Administration, which showed that U.S. crude stocks fell by 951,000 barrels to 360.3 million.

Moreover, now many market participants are waiting for data from China, which should show the GDP growth in the fourth quarter. It is expected that the economy will expand by 7.8%, compared with 7.4% in the previous period.

February futures price of U.S. light crude oil WTI (Light Sweet Crude Oil) rose to 95.22 dollars a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

February futures price for North Sea petroleum mix of mark Brent fell to $ 110.32 a barrel on the London Stock Exchange ICE Futures Europe.

During most of the day, gold was traded restraint, demonstrating a slight increase. But in spite of this trend, the value of precious metals fell sharply, which was caused by the publication of data on the U.S., which increased the likelihood that the Federal Reserve may stop holding of its accommodative monetary policy.

It is learned that the number of initial claims for unemployment benefits in the U.S. fell for the week ending January 12 to 335,000 level while still achieving the lowest level in the last five years.

Note also that many economists expect that the value of the indicator will rise to the level of 370 000 hits.

After the release of the data, experts said that if the trend continues, the central bank may discontinue its program to buy bonds earlier than expected.

Note that the spot gold traded at $ 1,681 an ounce before the talk, but fell to $ 1666.25 after the data.

However, after prices rose to $ 1683.8, which was associated with the release of the Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index, which fell in January to -5.8 from 4.6.

February futures price of gold on COMEX today rose to 1686.80 dollars per ounce.

The USD / JPY is trading higher by 1.10% after a sharp decline this week. Today, the Japanese currency was again under pressure amid comments Minister Akira Amani and representative of the Bank of Japan Takehiro Sato. Investors continue to wait for the authorities to hints about the prospects of making a financial and monetary policy.

Morning in Asia was supported by a pair of Y88.20, made ​​from a rebound to the zone Y89.30/40, updating the maximum of Y89.56.

The survey's broadest measure of manufacturing conditions, the diffusion index of current activity, decreased from a revised reading of 4.6 in December to -5.8 this month. The demand for manufactured goods showed slight declines this month: The new orders index declined from a revised reading of 4.9 in December to -4.3 in January. The shipments index remained slightly positive but suggests no overall growth - the percentage of firms reporting increased shipments was mostly offset by the percentage reporting decreased shipments (26 percent). The indexes for both delivery times and unfilled orders recorded slightly negative readings this month. Labor market conditions at reporting firms deteriorated this month. The employment index, at -5.2, fell from -0.2 in December. The percentage of firms reporting decreases in employment (16 percent) exceeded the percentage reporting increases (11 percent). Firms also indicated a decrease in the average workweek compared with last month.

U.S. stock futures rose amid better-than-forecast initial jobless claims and housing data.

Global Stocks:

After the release of the block statistics from the U.S. and Canada, USD / CAD weakened by 20 points. As a result, the USD / CAD went into negative territory, updating an intraday low of C $ 0.9845 (-0.12%).

In December, started construction in the U.S. has reached 0.954 million vs. 0.890 million building permits totaled 0.903 million, in line with expectations. Claiming the benefit for the b / p dropped to 335 thousand vs. 365 thousand in Canadian portfolio investment in Canadian securities (in November) reached $ 5.62 million versus expectations of $ 9.45 million

Downgrade:
Goldman Sachs (GS) downgrade from Buy to Hold at Sandler O'Neill
Boeing (BA) downgrade from Hold to Underweight at BB&T Capital Mkts
Cisco Systems (CSCO) downgrade from Neutral to Underweight at JP Morgan

Other:
Stifel Nicolaus reiterated eBay (EBAY) at Buy, target raised from $60 to $63
Wedbush reiterated eBay (EBAY) at Outperform, target raised from $60 to $64
Needham reiterated eBay (EBAY) at Buy, target raised from $55 to $60
FBR Capital reiterated JPMorgan Chase (JPM) at Mkt Perform, target raised from $40 to $43
BMO Capital Markets lowered target of Apple (AAPL) to $640 from $670

Housing starts surged 12.1 percent in December to 954,000 at an annualized rate. November housing starts were revised down to 851,000 from a prior reading of 861,000.

Economists expected starts to rise just 3.3 percent to 890,000.

Building permits climbed 0.3 percent to 903,000, missing expectations of a 0.5 percent rise.

First-time claims for U.S. unemployment benefits fell by much more than anticipated in the week ended January 12th, according to a report released by the Labor Department on Thursday.

The report showed that initial jobless claims fell to 335,000, a decrease of 37,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 372,000.

Economists had been expecting jobless claims to show a much more modest decrease to 368,000 from the 371,000 originally reported for the previous week.

EUR/USD $1.3150, $1.3190, $1.3200, $1.3275, $1.3400

USD/JPY Y87.75, Y88.25, Y88.40, Y88.50, Y88.60, Y89.00, Y89.50

GBP/USD $1.5960, $1.6075

AUD/USD $1.0505, $1.0520, $1.0550, $1.0575

AUD/NZD NZ$1.2550

EUR/USD

Offers $1.3430, $1.3395/405, $1.3370

Bids $1.3330, $1.3270, $1.3260/50, $1.3240/20, $1.3200/190

AUD/USD

Offers $1.0650, $1.0635/40, $1.0625, $1.0600, $1.0590, $1.0575/80,  $1.0535/40

Bids  $1.0505/00, $1.0490/80, $1.0475/70, $1.0455/50, $1.0420, $1.0410/00

GBP/USD

Offers $1.6180/85, $1.6135/50, $1.6115/20, $1.6095/105, $1.6050/55, $1.6030

Bids $1.6010/00, $1.5975/70, $1.5950

EUR/JPY

Offers Y121.00, Y120.50, Y119.95/00, Y119.80

Bids Y119.00, Y118.50/40, Y118.10/00, Y117.65/60, Y117.20, Y117.10/00

USD/JPY

Offers Y90.55/60, Y90.50, Y90.30/35, Y90.00, Y89.50

Bids  Y88.85/80, Y88.60/40, Y88.10/00

EUR/GBP

Offers stg0.8400, stg0.8380, stg0.8350/60

Bids  stg0.8325/20, stg0.8260,  stg0.8250,  stg0.8225/20, stg0.8205/00, stg0.8180

European stocks fluctuated as retailers climbed on increased revenue while Rio Tinto Group dropped after announcing a $14 billion impairment.

Distressed investors poor statistics, according to which in November production in the construction sector eurozone fell for the third month in a row - a decline of 0.4% -1.6% in October, according to data issued by the agency Eurostat.

With optimism were received Spanish auction results today Spanish Treasury held an auction for the public debt, in which the bonds were sold in the amount of 4.505 billion euros, which is the top of the target range of 3.5-4.5 billion euros. Pee this bond yields declined.

The head of the EU Herman Van Rompuy said Europe should return to growth phase in 2013, which also supported the market.

Carrefour added 5.7 percent to 20.43 euros, the biggest gain since October. The retailer reported a 0.8 percent increase in fourth-quarter sales because of growth in Latin America, and said business continued to improve in France.

Delhaize surged 8.3 percent to 34.59 euros, the largest advance in two months. The company said its U.S. unit had the best quarterly performance since 2006, spurring organic revenue growth of 2.5 percent for the whole company.

Rio Tinto dropped 2.4 percent to 3,375 pence, a one-month low. Albanese is leaving after more than 30 years as the $38 billion cash takeover of Alcan Inc. in 2007 and the A$3.9 billion ($4.1 billion) purchase of Mozambique coal producer Riversdale Mining Ltd. in 2011 soured.

FTSE 100 6,098.36 -5.62 -0.09%

CAC 40 3,724.31 +15.82 +0.43%

DAX 7,671.65 -19.48 -0.25%

NTMA sold E500mln 3-month T-bill at average yield of 0.2% (0.55%) and bid-to-cover 3.8 (4.12) times.

USD / JPY has updated the intraday maximum Y89.17, and the cross EUR / JPY rose to Y119.50 Spanish auction and the statements of Van Rompuy.

Support to the markets was the result of Spanish auction, according to which was marked by increased demand and a decrease in yield. The head of the EU Herman Van Rompuy said Europe should return to growth phase in 2013, which also supported the rally in the euro.

The single currency is growing steadily in the last of those hours and was able to add almost a figure, reaching the $ 1.3360/70 against the increase in risk appetite in the currency market.

The positive results of the Spanish auction supported the euro, despite the weak performance of the production in the construction sector, according to which in November in this category experienced declines of 0.4% m / m and 4.7% y / y

At the moment, the pair become stronger by 0.55% to $ 1.3367, testing the resistance $ 1.3365 (maximum 11 January). The next resistance is at $ 1.3405 (maximum of 14 January).

EUR/USD $1.3150, $1.3190, $1.3200, $1.3275, $1.3400

USD/JPY Y87.75, Y88.25, Y88.40, Y88.50, Y88.60, Y89.00, Y89.50

GBP/USD $1.5960, $1.6075

AUD/USD $1.0505, $1.0520, $1.0550, $1.0575

AUD/NZD NZ$1.2550

Most Asian shares declined, with the regional benchmark index trading lower for a second day, after touching a 17-month high this week. Japan’s Nikkei 225 Stock Average (NKY) closed higher after swinging amid currency fluctuations.

Nikkei 225 10,609.64 +9.20 +0.09%

Hang Seng 23,339.76 -17.23 -0.07%

S&P/ASX 200 4,756.63 +18.18 +0.38%

Shanghai Composite 2,284.91 -24.59 -1.06%

GS Yuasa Corp., a supplier of batteries for Boeing Co.’s 787 aircraft, slumped 5 percent in Tokyo after the Federal Aviation Administration ordered airlines to prove the batteries are safe.

Evergrande Real Estate Group Ltd., China’s biggest developer by sales volume, sank 7.1 percent in Hong Kong after announcing a share sale.

Rio Tinto Group, the world’s second- largest mining company, said after the market close it will take an impairment charge of about $14 billion.

The yen strengthened against the dollar, recording a session with the second rise, after falling by 5.8% last month, sparking criticism from leaders around the world, that the fall in the exchange rate is excessive.

Japan's currency also rose against other currencies, as risk appetite increased, while the shares recovered some of their losses.

The pound fell for a fourth day against the dollar, registering with the longest drop since November, and also lost ground against the euro, as the World Bank has lowered the forecast for global economic growth. Note also that the currency has lost 0.5%, while reducing to $ 1.5986, which is a minimum of 28 November.

It is learned that the forecast reduction was due to the austerity measures, high unemployment, and the low level of confidence in the business, which puts pressure on the economies of developed countries. It is expected that the global economy will grow this year by 2.4%, after rising by 2.3% in 2012.

The euro fell against the dollar, because yesterday the Prime Minister of Luxembourg Jean-Claude Juncker said that the exchange rate is "dangerously high."

Asian stocks dropped, with the regional benchmark index heading for its biggest loss since November, amid signs markets are overbought. The Nikkei 225 Stock Average slid by the most in eight months, while Chinese shares fell for the first time in three days.

Nikkei 225 10,600.44 -278.64 -2.56%

Hang Seng 23,356.99 -24.52 -0.10%

S&P/ASX 200 4,738.44 +21.89 +0.46%

Shanghai Composite 2,309.5 -16.18 -0.70%

Honda Motor Co., an automaker that gets 81 percent of its sales overseas, sank 3 percent in Tokyo as a stronger yen dimmed the outlook for exporters.

GS Yuasa Corp., a supplier of lithium batteries to Boeing Co., slumped 4.5 percent after All Nippon Airways Co. grounded its fleet of Boeing Dreamliners.

Industrial & Commercial Bank Ltd., the world’s No. 1 lender, fell 1.2 percent in Hong Kong after Premier Wen Jiabao said China should “gradually” establish a property tax system.

European stocks were little changed, erasing an earlier retreat for the region’s benchmark Stoxx Europe 600 Index, as U.S. industrial production climbed and Goldman Sachs Group Inc.’s earnings topped estimates.

TUI Travel Plc (TT/) gained 3.9 percent after Europe’s largest tour operator said it received an approach from its German majority owner. Anglo American Plc (AAL) dropped 3.1 percent as the African National Congress said South Africa’s government should withdraw the company’s platinum licenses. Societe Generale SA (GLE) lost 2.8 percent as CA Cheuvreux downgraded the French lender.

The Stoxx 600 rose less than 0.1 percent to 286.03 at the close of trading, after earlier falling as much as 0.4 percent.

FTSE 100 6,103.98 -13.33 -0.22% CAC 40 3,708.49 +11.14 +0.30% DAX 7,691.13 +15.22 +0.20%

Economic data today showed U.S. industrial production climbed 0.3 percent in December, for a second month of gains, as demand picked up for capital equipment. That matched the median forecast, after a revised 1 percent November gain, the Federal Reserve report showed.

Confidence among U.S. homebuilders held at the highest level in more than six years in January, adding to evidence that residential real estate will help spur economic growth. The National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo index remained at 47.

Stocks fell earlier as the World Bank cut its global growth forecast for this year to 2.4 percent as austerity measures, high unemployment and low business confidence weigh on economies in developed nations. That’s down from a June forecast of 3 percent, after growth of 2.3 percent in 2012.

TUI Travel rallied 3.9 percent to 292.5 pence after the company said its in early stage talks with TUI AG (TUI1) that “may or may not result in a combination of the two companies.” Shares of TUI AG surged 8.8 percent to 8.05 euros in Frankfurt.

Anglo American, the world’s largest platinum producer, dropped 3.1 percent to 1,901 pence after the ANC called on the South African government to withdraw mining licenses from Anglo’s Amplats unit.

Lonmin Plc (LMI), the third-largest platinum producer, tumbled 5.7 percent to 326.3 pence.

KappAhl AB (KAHL) jumped 17 percent to 5.10 kronor after Sweden’s second-biggest publicly traded clothing retailer reported first- quarter net profit of 115 million kronor ($17.7 million), exceeding analyst estimates of 70.4 million kronor. Sales also topped forecasts.

Societe Generale slid 2.8 percent to 32.54 euros, a second day of losses. Cheuvreux downgraded the French bank to underperform, the equivalent of sell, from outperform.

Major U.S. stock indexes were unable to determine the direction of movement, and ended the session mixed.

Today, market participants have a lot of important messages, some of which were positive (data on industrial production in the U.S., quarterly reports of the financial sector), some were quite negative (new problems with the aircraft at Boeing, reduced economic growth forecast by the World Bank). Oversupply of news does not allow the index of the specified direction, market participants continue to assess the information received.

Note that the publication of the report the Fed "Beige Book," which was prepared for the next meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee, greatly influenced the trading was not there.

The focus of the market has the publication of quarterly reports. Today, after the markets closed publish their data company eBay (EBAY), which owns the eponymous online auction. Tomorrow before the auction will publish their reports Bank of America (BAC) and Citigroup (C), and UnitedHealth (UNH).

DOW index components traded mixed. Currently, the shares are news leader Hewlett-Packard (HPQ, +4.05%). Maximum loss carry stock Boeing (BA, -3.51%), pressure that have reported problems with the 787 series.

All sectors of the index S & P, except technological (+0,1%), bear the losses. Support the technology sector has a recovery stock Apple Inc (AAPL), which returned above $ 500 and is currently showing an increase of more than 4%. More than other sectors of manufactured goods decreased (-0.7%), which includes shares of Boeing (BA).

At the close:

Dow -23.66 13,511.23 -0.17%

Nasdaq +6.76 3,117.54 +0.22%

S & P +0.29 1,472.63 +0.02%

00:00 Australia MI Inflation Gauge, m/m January +1.8% +2.0%

00:30 Australia Unemployment rate December 5.3% 5.4% 5.4%

00:30 Australia Changing the number of employed December 13.9 2.3 -5.5

The yen remained higher after a two- day rally as investors weighed the likelihood of new monetary easing measures by the Bank of Japan next week. The Japanese currency advanced against all its major peers as Asian stocks reversed gains, supporting demand for refuge assets. It rallied over the past two days after comments by Japanese officials damped expectations the government will push for further declines.

Australia’s dollar weakened after data showed the nation lost jobs in December. In Australia, employment fell by 5,500 in December, government data showed today. That compared with economist estimates for a 4,000 increase.

The 17-nation euro failed to snap a two-day loss after Luxembourg’s Jean-Claude Juncker, who leads a group of euro-area finance ministers called the euro’s value “dangerously high” this week. The world’s leading economies are on the brink of a “currency war,” Bank Rossii First Deputy Chairman Alexei Ulyukayev said yesterday.

ECB Governing Council member Ewald Nowotny said yesterday that he doesn’t expect the currency to keep appreciating in the longer term and the euro’s recent gains against the dollar are not a concern.

EUR/USD: during the Asian session the pair was trading around the level of $1.3300.

GBP/USD: during the Asian session the pair was trading around the level of $1.6000.

USD/JPY: during the Asian session the pair was trading around the level of Y88.50.

Change % Change Last

Oil $94.19 -0.05 -0.05%

Gold $1,680.90 -2.30 -0.14%

Change % Change Last

Nikkei 225 10,600.44 -278.64 -2.56%

Hang Seng 23,356.99 -24.52 -0.10%

S&P/ASX 200 4,738.44 +21.89 +0.46%

Shanghai Composite 2,309.5 -16.18 -0.70%

FTSE 100 6,103.98 -13.33 -0.22%

CAC 40 3,708.49 +11.14 +0.30%

DAX 7,691.13 +15.22 +0.20%

Dow -23.66 13,511.23 -0.17%

Nasdaq +6.76 3,117.54 +0.22%

S & P +0.29 1,472.63 +0.02%

(pare/closed(00:00 GMT +02:00)/change, %)

EUR/USD $1,3288 -0,12%

GBP/USD $1,6005 -0,36%

USD/CHF Chf0,9311 -0,08%

USD/JPY Y88,37 -0,46%

EUR/JPY Y117,41 -0,60%

GBP/JPY Y141,45 -0,82%

AUD/USD $1,0571 +0,08%

NZD/USD $0,8407 +0,13%

USD/CAD C$0,9857 +0,17%

00:00 Australia MI Inflation Gauge, m/m January +1.8% +2.0%

00:30 Australia Unemployment rate December 5.3% 5.4% 5.4%

00:30 Australia Changing the number of employed December 13.9 2.3 -5.5

08:15 Switzerland Producer & Import Prices, m/m December 0.0% +0.2%

08:15 Switzerland Producer & Import Prices, y/y December +1.2% +0.9%

09:00 Eurozone ECB Monthly Report January

10:00 Eurozone Construction Output, m/m November -1.6%

10:00 Eurozone Construction Output, y/y November -4.1%

13:30 Canada Foreign investment in Canadian securities November 13.26 9.45

13:30 U.S. Building Permits, mln December 0.899 0.900

13:30 U.S. Housing Starts, mln December 0.861 0.888

13:30 U.S. Initial Jobless Claims - 371 369

15:00 U.S. Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey January 8.1 7.1

21:45 New Zealand CPI, q/q IV quarter +0.3% +0.1%