CFD Markets News and Forecasts — 15-01-2013

The yen rose sharply against the dollar, which was associated with the comments of the Japanese economy minister Akira Amari, who noted that an overly weak currency could damage the import and households. Note that the market participants are immediately perceived the news as "a call to action." However, many experts say that now the probability of further action to reduce the value of the yen slightly decreased.

The Swiss franc fell to a 13-month low against the euro, as there are more and more signs that the debt crisis in Europe is waning. Recall that with the improvement of the situation demand for the currency as a refuge sharply. Meanwhile, we note that the Swiss franc reached a level of 1.24 per euro for the first time since December 7, 2011.

The dollar rose against most major currencies, as many investors bought it as a safe asset. Note that the market participants are now pending the issue of the limits of public debt is not the solution of which can seriously harm the economy. U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner said yesterday that the debt limit was reached on December 31, and "emergency funds", which are now used by countries to pay the bills, will last only until the beginning of March.

Geithner also warned of serious economic difficulties, if Congress does not approve raising the limit. Recall that in 1960 it had already increased 79 times.

Meanwhile, Fitch Ratings said today that the "failure" in the resolution of this issue may cause to revise the U.S. credit rating, which is currently at AAA.

European stocks were little changed as concern that debt-ceiling talks will harm the U.S. economy and a report showing weaker-than-forecast German growth offset Spain’s better-than-targeted sale of debt.

IG Group Holdings Plc (IGG) slipped 1.1 percent after saying first-half net trading revenue fell. SAP AG (SAP) sank the most in six months after reporting earnings that trailed estimates. Air Liquide SA dropped 1 percent after Bank of America Corp. cut its recommendation on the stock. Hennes & Mauritz AB (HMB) advanced 3.6 percent after posting sales that beat analyst forecasts.

The Stoxx Europe 600 Index (SXXP) lost less than 0.1 percent to 285.97 at the close of trading.

National benchmark indexes fell in 11 of the 18 western European markets.

FTSE 100 6,117.31 +9.45 +0.15% CAC 40 3,697.35 -10.90 -0.29% DAX 7,675.91 -53.61 -0.69%

IG Group, owner of the IG Index financial spread-betting brand, slipped 1.1 percent to 462.5 pence. The company said first-half net trading revenue fell 14 percent to 169 million pounds ($271.8 million) and pretax profit slid 21 percent to 81.1 million pounds.

SAP sank 3.9 percent to 58.70 euros, the most since July 6. The biggest maker of business-management software reported earnings trailing analysts’ estimates as it increased spending and growth in the Americas slowed. Fourth-quarter operating profit excluding some items rose about 10 percent to 1.96 billion euros, compared with analyst estimates for 2 billion euros.

Air Liquide (AI), a maker of industrial gases, fell 1 percent to 92.15 euros after Bank of America’s Merrill Lynch unit cut its recommendation to underperform from neutral, saying that the “risk/reward” at the shares’ current levels isn’t attractive.

H&M jumped 3.6 percent to 228.20 kronor. Europe’s second- largest clothing retailer reported an increase in sales that beat analysts’ estimates.

Burberry Group Plc (BRBY) advanced 4.6 percent to 1,386 pence. The U.K.’s largest luxury-goods company said third-quarter revenue increased 7 percent to 613 million pounds, exceeding the 601.4 million-pound average of analysts estimates.

The cost of oil fell today, departing from the four-month high reached earlier on fears that negotiations on the debt limit could damage the U.S. economy. In addition, the pressure of the oil had an index of activity in the manufacturing sector of the New York Fed, which recorded in January, six monthly decline in a row. As it became known, the index dropped to -7.78, compared to -7.3 last month, which was revised to -8.1. Note that many economists expect the growth rate to 1.9.

Note that the futures price fell by 0.6 percent, after U.S. President Barack Obama said yesterday that he would not "negotiate" with Republicans against raising debt limit and called for a separate discussion to reduce costs.

Also yesterday, House Speaker John Boehner in his letter to Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner wrote that the Treasury Department uses "extraordinary means", which have been isolated to prevent the violation polotka debt in the period from mid-February or early March.

Recall that the debt ceiling has been raised 79 times since its creation in 1917, and 49 times he rose during the Republican administration.

February futures price of U.S. light crude oil WTI (Light Sweet Crude Oil) fell to 93.93 dollars a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

February futures price for North Sea petroleum mix of mark Brent fell to $ 111.15 a barrel on the London Stock Exchange ICE Futures Europe.

Gold prices rose today, helped by first comments Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke. Meanwhile, experts say that from a technical point of view, the situation has changed for the better, and now we can fully consider buying the metal.

Recall that in his speech Bernanke said the U.S. economic recovery is still fragile. In addition, he hinted that the monthly bond purchases by the Fed will not end any time soon. Note that this news is positive for commodities commodity market, including precious metals.

Note also that a small effect on the price of gold have data by the European Union, which were mixed. It is learned that German GDP fell by 0.5% in the fourth quarter last year, while the trade surplus reached a record. Also today, also passed bond auction in Italy and Spain, which was a success, adding a sign that the European investor sentiment towards the EU continues to grow.

February futures price of gold on COMEX today rose to 1682.40 dollars per ounce.

U.S. stock futures fell as concern about talks on raising the debt ceiling intensified and manufacturing in the New York region contracted.

Global Stocks:

Retail sales increased 0.5% in December after increasing an upwardly revised 0.4% (from 0.3%) in November. The Briefing.com consensus expected retail sales to increase 0.2%.

The pickup in retail sales was in-line with the 0.7% aggregate wage gain reported in the December employment situation data. Surprisingly, the negotiations over the fiscal cliff – which caused consumer confidence/sentiment to plunge in December – did not adversely affect consumer spending behavior.

Excluding auto sales, retail sales increased 0.3% in December after falling 0.1% in November and were exactly in-line with the consensus estimate.

The retail sales report was strong across the board. With the exception of a small 0.6% decline in electronics and appliance stores -- which was likely due to slowing demand for the iPhone 5 after the initial release in late October -- and a 1.6% drop in sales at gasoline stations -- which was caused by lower prices and not weaker demand -- all of the retail sectors showed solid sales growth.

Core retail sales -- which exclude the highly volatile auto dealers, building materials and supply stores, and gasoline stations -- increased 0.6% in December and confirm strong consumer demand trends.

Downgrades:
American Express (AXP) downgraded to Underweight from Neutral at JP Morgan

Other:
Credit Suisse raises target of Caterpillar (CAT) to $124 From $108
Nomura cuts target of Apple (AAPL) to $530 from $660

EUR/USD $1.3300, $1.3325, $1.3350, $1.3400

USD/JPY Y88.30, Y88.50, Y88.75, Y89.00, Y89.25, Y89.50, Y90.00

AUD/USD $1.0550, $1.0600

07:00 Germany CPI, m/m (finally) December +0.9% +0.9% +0.9%

07:00 Germany CPI, y/y (finally) December +2.1% +2.1% +2.1%

09:30 United Kingdom HICP, m/m December +0.2% +0.5% +0.5%

09:30 United Kingdom HICP, Y/Y December +2.7% +2.7% +2.7%

09:30 United Kingdom HICP ex EFAT, Y/Y December +2.6% +2.6% +2.4%

09:30 United Kingdom Retail Price Index, m/m December 0.0% +0.4% +0.5%

09:30 United Kingdom Retail prices, Y/Y December +3.0% +3.0% +3.1%

09:30 United Kingdom RPI-X, Y/Y December +2.9% +3.0% +3.0%

09:30 United Kingdom Producer Price Index - Input (MoM) December +0.1% 0.0% -0.2%

09:30 United Kingdom Producer Price Index - Input (YoY) December -0.3% +0.3% +0.3%

09:30 United Kingdom Producer Price Index - Output (MoM) December -0.2% 0.0% -0.1%

09:30 United Kingdom Producer Price Index - Output (YoY) December +2.2% +2.4% +2.2%

10:00 Eurozone Trade Balance s.a. November 7.9 8.2 11.0

10:30 United Kingdom BOE Inflation Letter January

The yen rose the most since May versus the dollar as Japan’s economy minister Akira Amari said an excessively weak currency may affect imports and households, damping speculation policy makers will try to weaken it further.

The euro fell against the dollar after the November trade surplus in the eurozone increased from € 10.2 billion to € 13.7 million vs. € 10.0 billion the same time, the Spanish auction results came out: yield 18-month bills was 1.687% ( vs. prev. 2.778%), and 12-month securities - 1.472% (vs. prev. 2.556%). Data on German GDP were quite pessimistic: index rose by 0.7% in 2012 vs. 0.8% and 3.0% in the previous period. Italian CPI rose by 2.3% in December against 2.5% the previous month and the forecast 2.4%, while on a monthly basis the index rose by 0.2% against expectations of 0.3%.

The British pound fell against the dollar after data on inflation, according to which the annual inflation rate in December was 2.7% for the third month in a row. This confirms the fears of the Bank of England at the fact that the price pressure persists despite the weak economy. Compared to the previous month consumer price index (CPI) in December rose 0.5%, which corresponds to the forecast of economists.

EUR / USD: during the European session the pair fell to a new intraday low of $ 1.3309

GBP / USD: pair lost during the European session more than 50 pips and fell in yesterday's low of $ 1.6031.

USD / JPY: during the European session the pair fell to a new intraday low of Y88.28

At 13:30 GMT the U.S. will change the volume of retail trade, including excluding sales of cars and fuel, the producer price index, including excluding prices for food and energy in December, Empire Manufacturing production index for January, at 15:00 GMT - the change in stocks in commercial warehouses for November, at 21:30 GMT - the change in stocks syuroy oil, according to API. At 23:30 GMT Australia is to publish an index of consumer confidence from Westpac in January. Finish the day at 23:50 GMT Japan data on the change in orders for machinery and equipment in November.

EUR/USD

Offers $1.3485/90, $1.3440/50, $1.3420/30, $1.3395/405

Bids $1.3335/20, $1.3300, $1.3280

AUD/USD

Offers $1.0650, $1.0635/40, $1.0625, $1.0600, $1.0570/90

Bids $1.0525/20, $1.0500, $1.0480/70, $1.0450

GBP/USD

Offers $1.6180/85, $1.6135/50, $1.6115/20, $1.6095/105

Bids $1.6050/45, $1.6035/30, $1.6010/00, $1.5995/90

EUR/JPY

Offers Y120.50, Y119.95/00, Y119.80, Y119.25/30, Y118.95/00

Bids Y118.20, Y118.10/00, Y117.50, Y117.20

USD/JPY

Offers Y90.00, Y89.75, Y89.60/70, Y89.50,  Y89.15/25

Bids  Y88.60/50, Y88.25/20 , Y88.10/00, Y87.50

EUR/GBP

Offers stg0.8400, stg0.8380, stg0.8350/60, stg0.8330

Bids  stg0.8280,  stg0.8270/60,  stg0.8250,  stg0.8225/20, stg0.8205/00, stg0.8180

European stocks were little changed as Spain sold more than targeted at a debt auction, offsetting concern that debt-ceiling talks will harm the U.S. economy and a report showing German growth slowed more than expected in 2012.

Spain sold 5.75 billion euros ($7.7 billion) of bills, overshooting the maximum target the Treasury set for the first short-term debt sale of the year.

Germany’s economy, Europe’s largest, probably shrank in the final quarter of 2012. Gross domestic product may have dropped as much as 0.5 percent from the third quarter, the Federal Statistics Office in Wiesbaden said today in a preliminary estimate. In 2012, growth slowed to 0.7 percent from 3 percent in 2011, it said. Economists forecast expansion of 0.8 percent for last year.

IG Group, owner of the IG Index financial spread-betting brand, slipped 3 percent to 454 pence. The company said first- half net trading revenue fell 14 percent to 169 million pounds ($271.8 million) and pretax profit slid 21 percent to 81.1 million pounds.

Air Liquide fell 0.6 percent to 92.50 euros after Bank of America’s Merrill Lynch unit cut its recommendation on the shares to underperform from neutral.

H&M jumped 3.8 percent to 228.60 kronor. Europe’s second- largest clothing retailer reported an increase in sales that beat analysts’ estimates for a second consecutive month. Total December sales rose 8 percent from a year earlier, the company said, exceeding the 5.1 percent average estimate in an SME Direkt survey.

FTSE 100 6,109.63 +1.77 +0.03%

CAC 40 3,713.8 +5.55 +0.15%

DAX 7,722.79 -6.73 -0.09%

- Banking union not magic solution to Eurozone crisis

- Euro zone is not out of the woods

- AAA sovereigns remain under threat

- Cites US, UK, France ratings as under threat

- Not house view but is risk China hard landing

EUR/USD $1.3300, $1.3325, $1.3350, $1.3400

USD/JPY Y88.30, Y88.50, Y88.75, Y89.00, Y89.25, Y89.50, Y90.00

AUD/USD $1.0550, $1.0600

Most Asian stocks rose, with the regional benchmark index heading for the highest close since August 2011. Japanese shares gained after Bank of Japan Governor Masaaki Shirakawa said the central bank will pursue powerful monetary easing.

Nikkei 225 10,879.08 +77.51 +0.72%

S&P/ASX 200 4,716.56 -3.15 -0.07%

Shanghai Composite 2,325.68 +13.94 +0.60%

Olympus Corp., a maker of cameras and endoscopes, jumped 7.7 percent in Tokyo after Goldman Sachs Group Inc. raised the stock’s rating to buy.

Billabong International Ltd. surged 16 percent as Australia’s largest surfwear maker received a takeover offer from VF Corp. and Altamont Capital Partners.

LG Display Co. slid 3.5 percent in Seoul, pacing declines among Apple Inc. suppliers, after the Nikkei newswire reported Apple scaled back production plans for the iPhone 5.

Yesterday during trading the yen hit its lowest level against the dollar since June 2010, which was due to the fact that the Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe will choose a new head of the central bank, which will support the expansion of monetary easing, which will speed up devaluation of the national currency. Against this background, the currency of Japan, the first time since May 2011 reached the level of 120 yen against the yen. Economists say that, in view of the situation is increasingly likely that further easing from the Bank of Japan will continue. In addition, expectations of increasing inflation target help to increase demand for the yen.

The dollar fell against the euro, after U.S. President Barack Obama said at a news conference that the United States can not afford to debate on the debt limit.

New Zealand's dollar, nicknamed the kiwi, rose against all 16 most-traded counterparts after a report showed that the level of retail spending increased.

The Swiss franc fell as European leaders said that the worst days of the crisis of sovereign debt in the region may have ended. Note that investors use this currency as a safe haven in times of financial crisis.

Asian stocks outside Japan advanced, with a regional gauge heading for its third gain in four days, as Chinese shares rallied after a regulator said China can boost by 10 times quotas for foreign investment in its financial markets.

Nikkei 225 10,801.57 +148.93 +1.40%

S&P/ASX 200 4,719.71 +10.22 +0.22%

Shanghai Composite 2,311.74 +68.74 +3.06%

Citic Securities Co., China’s biggest listed stock brokerage, jumped 5.4 percent in Hong Kong.

China Railway Group Ltd. added 1.2 percent after saying it won contracts worth 29.8 billion yuan ($4.8 billion).

Li & Fung Ltd., a supplier of clothes and toys to retailers, slumped 15 percent in Hong Kong after operating income dropped.

European stock markets ended lower Monday as investors awaited a speech by U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke, while shares of TNT Express NV plunged after United Parcel Service Inc. said European regulators would block its proposed acquisition of the Dutch package-delivery company.

The Stoxx Europe 600 index fell 0.4% to close at 286.01.

FTSE 100 6,107.86 -13.72 -0.22% CAC 40 3,708.25 +2.23 +0.06% DAX 7,729.52 +13.99 +0.18%

Shares of TNT Express plunged more than 41% and PostNL plummeted nearly 36%, upended as UPS said the European Commission would refuse to approve the U.S. logistics group’s proposed $6.8 billion buyout of TNT Express over competition concerns. PostNL has been attempting to dispose of its nearly 30% stake in TNT.

In Paris, shares of Société Générale SA rose 3.8% and Credit Agricole SA added 3%. Credit Suisse upgraded the French banks to overweight, citing positive effects of 2012 asset disposals and inexpensive valuations relative to peers.

Also higher in Paris, shares of Compagnie de Saint-Gobain SA rose 0.4%. The company said Ardagh Glass Ltd. has made a “binding and irrevocable” offer valued at $1.69 billion for the French conglomerate’s North American unit, which makes glass bottles and jars.

In other deal news, shares of Swatch Group AG rose 4.1% after the Swiss watch company said it paid $750 million for the jewelry and watch brand of Harry Winston Diamond Corp.

European stocks got an early boost after comments from Charles Evans, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago. Media reports said Evans predicted the U.S. economy will grow by 2.5% in 2013, improving to a 3.5% growth rate for gross domestic product in 2014. Read: Monetary policy needs to boost growth: Fed's Evans

Shares of Volkswagen AG gave up an earlier gain to lose 0.1%. Société Générale said it believes the auto maker will continue to outperform in all major markets, but it did reduce earnings forecasts on the group. Volkwagen’s 2013 earnings before interest and taxes forecast was cut to €14.4 billion from €15.8 billion.

Shares of Eurasian Natural Resources Corp. traded 3.5% higher. Credit Suisse analysts upgraded its rating to outperform from neutral, saying they believe that downside risks are now limited and that there are potential re-rating catalysts this year.

Indexes finished trading mixed, as market participants were awaiting appearances Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke.

The pressure on the indices, especially on the Nasdaq, shares continued to decline Apple (AAPL), which price temporarily fell below $ 500 a pressure reducing reported orders for spare parts.

Note that in his speech, U.S. President Barack Obama, as expected, raised the issue of increasing the debt ceiling, saying, "It is absurd to even think about, not to raise the debt limit." Obama also noted that "the U.S. economy is growing, it has to wait good in 2013. "Overall, Obama's speech a significant impact on the dynamics of trade did not have.

DOW index components traded mixed. Currently, the shares are news leader Hewlett-Packard (HPQ, +4.67%), which today has the support raising their rating analysts JP Morgan. Maximum loss carry stock Verizon Communications Inc. (VZ, -1,73%).

To date, the sector of the S & P demonstrate a mixed trend. The maximum loss is the technology sector (-0.5%). The leader is the sector conglomerates (0.4%).

At the close:

Dow +19.12 13,507.55 +0.14%

Nasdaq -8.14 3,117.50 -0.26%

00:01 United Kingdom RICS House Price Balance December -9% -8% 0%

06:00 Japan Prelim Machine Tool Orders, y/y December -21.3% -27.5%

The yen rose against all of its 16 major peers after comments by Japan’s economy minister stoked speculation the nation won’t try to spur further weakness in its currency. Amari, Japan’s Minister for Economic and Fiscal Policy, said an excessive decline in the yen would cause a spike in import prices. It would be a benefit for exports while having harmful effects on consumers, he told reporters in Tokyo today.

The dollar snapped a three-day loss against the euro as Asian share trimmed gains, rekindling demand for safer assets. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke said in Ann Arbor, Michigan yesterday that the federal budget must be brought under control and that the U.S. is in a “relatively fragile recovery.”

President Barack Obama warned Congress not to use the nation’s debt ceiling as leverage in the U.S. budget debate. Obama said at a White House press conference markets may go “haywire” if the limit isn’t raised.

EUR/USD: during the Asian session the pair fell to $1.3345.

GBP/USD: during the Asian session, the pair traded in a range of $1.6065/95.

USD/JPY: during the Asian session the pair fell to Y88.60.

The calendar picks up pace on Tuesday, with a slew of releases on both sides of the Atlantic. Early data sees the release of the German December final HICP data and final German 2012 GDP numbers. At 0800GMT, further European inflation data is expected, with the release of Spain's December final HICP numbers. Further eurozone data is expected at 1000GMT when the EMU November trade numbers will hit the screens. UK inflation data is released at 0930GMT, when both PPI nad CPI numbers are set to cross the wires. In terms of the CPI release, it is likely inflation finished 2012 close to 3%.

Change % Change Last

Oil $94.14 0.00 0.00%

Change % Change Last

Nikkei 225 Closed

S&P/ASX 200 4,719.71 +10.22 +0.22%

Shanghai Composite 2,311.74 +68.74 +3.06%

FTSE 100 6,107.86 -13.72 -0.22%

CAC 40 3,708.25 +2.23 +0.06%

DAX 7,729.52 +13.99 +0.18%

Dow +19.12 13,507.55 +0.14%

Nasdaq -8.14 3,117.50 -0.26%

S&P -1.35 1,470.70 -0.09%

(pare/closed(00:00 GMT +02:00)/change, %)

EUR/USD $1,3381 +0,34%

GBP/USD $1,6075 -0,27%

USD/CHF Chf0,9218 +0,90%

USD/JPY Y89,47 +0,29%

EUR/JPY Y119,73 +0,64%

GBP/JPY Y143,82 +0,03%

AUD/USD $1,0564 +0,32%

NZD/USD $0,8431 +0,81%

00:01 United Kingdom RICS House Price Balance December -9% -8% 0%

06:00 Japan Prelim Machine Tool Orders, y/y December -21.3%

07:00 Germany CPI, m/m (finally) December +0.9% +0.9%

07:00 Germany CPI, y/y (finally) December +2.1% +2.1%

09:30 United Kingdom HICP, m/m December +0.2% +0.5%

09:30 United Kingdom HICP, Y/Y December +2.7% +2.7%

09:30 United Kingdom HICP ex EFAT, Y/Y December +2.6% +2.6%

09:30 United Kingdom Retail Price Index, m/m December 0.0% +0.4%

09:30 United Kingdom Retail prices, Y/Y December +3.0% +3.0%

09:30 United Kingdom RPI-X, Y/Y December +2.9% +3.0%

09:30 United Kingdom Producer Price Index - Input (MoM) December +0.1% 0.0%

09:30 United Kingdom Producer Price Index - Input (YoY) December -0.3% +0.3%

09:30 United Kingdom Producer Price Index - Output (MoM) December -0.2% 0.0%

09:30 United Kingdom Producer Price Index - Output (YoY) December +2.2% +2.4%

10:00 Eurozone Trade Balance s.a. November 7.9 8.2

10:30 United Kingdom BOE Inflation Letter January

13:00 U.S. FOMC Member Rosengren Speaks -

13:30 U.S. Retail sales December +0.3% +0.2%

13:30 U.S. Retail sales excluding auto December 0.0% +0.2%

13:30 U.S. PPI, m/m December -0.8% -0.1%

13:30 U.S. PPI, y/y December +1.5% +1.6%

13:30 U.S. PPI excluding food and energy, m/m December +0.1% +0.2%

13:30 U.S. PPI excluding food and energy, Y/Y December +2.2% +2.1%

13:30 U.S. NY Fed Empire State manufacturing index January -8.1 1.9

15:00 U.S. Business inventories November +0.4% +0.3%

21:30 U.S. API Crude Oil Inventories - +2.4

23:30 Australia Westpac Consumer Confidence January -4.1%

23:50 Japan Core Machinery Orders November +2.6% +0.4%