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CFD Markets News and Forecasts — 10-01-2013
The euro rose the most in five months versus the dollar as European Central Bank President Mario Draghi said the economy should gradually recover and the decision to refrain from cutting interest rates was unanimous.
The 17-nation currency climbed to the strongest since July 2011 against the yen after Spain sold more than the maximum target at its first debt auction of the year, adding to signs the region’s financial crisis is easing. The Spanish Treasury in Madrid raised 5.82 billion euros ($7.69 billion) from the sale of three bonds, exceeding its upper target of 5 billion euros. The auctions included a new two-year note with so-called collective-action clauses limiting investors’ rights to oppose writedowns.
The yen fell for a second day versus the dollar on bets Japanese policy makers will boost stimulus that tends to weaken the currency. The yen declined against all of its 16 most-traded counterparts except South Africa’s rand after a draft document obtained by Bloomberg News showed the government expects the central bank to conduct “bold” monetary easing. Bank of Japan Governor Masaaki Shirakawa said yesterday the BOJ was in close cooperation with the government. The central bank next meets on Jan. 21-22.
Australia’s currency gained for a fifth day as Chinese imports increased. Australia’s dollar strengthened to the highest level in almost four months versus its U.S. counterpart after data showed imports increased in China, the South Pacific nation’s biggest overseas market. Shipments to China rose 6 percent last month, the customs administration said in Beijing.
The British pound rose after it during the first meeting of the new year, the Bank of England MPC members decided to keep the current course of monetary policy unchanged.
European stocks declined from a 22- month high as European Central Bank policy makers kept the benchmark interest rate at a record low.
ECB policy makers meeting in Frankfurt today left the benchmark rate at a record low of 0.75 percent, as predicted by 50 out of 55 economists in a Bloomberg News survey.
The Bank of England also held its interest rate at a record-low 0.5 percent, in line with economists’ predictions.
National benchmark indexes rose in 10 of the 18 western European markets. The U.K.’s FTSE 100 was little changed. France’s CAC 40 retreated 0.4 percent and Germany’s DAX declined 0.2 percent.
Richemont, the world’s biggest luxury jewelry maker, retreated 2.1 percent to 76 Swiss francs after Tiffany said full-year profit excluding some items will be at the lower end of its previous forecast of $3.20 to $3.40 a share.
Nokia surged 11 percent to 3.32 euros. The Finnish mobile- phone maker seeking to reverse falling sales said operating profit at its handset unit, excluding some items, was at a break-even level or as much as 2 percent of sales. In October, the company projected an operating loss for the unit of 6 percent of sales, plus or minus 4 percentage points.
Tesco gained 1.8 percent to 355.4 pence. The U.K.’s biggest grocer reported the strongest sales growth since 2010 as money- off coupons and an enhanced food offering helped spark a revival. U.K. sales at stores open at least a year rose 1.8 percent in the six weeks ended Jan. 5, excluding gasoline and value-added taxes.
MAN SE gained 3.5 percent to 86.94 euros. Volkswagen AG, Europe’s largest carmaker, will offer to buy out the rest of the German truckmaker’s shareholders to take full control of the company.
Positive market sentiment allowed to continue to grow against the Aussie dollar during the U.S. session. In Asia, the AUD / USD broke through $ 1.0550/60 resistance area on strong Chinese data and some consolidation after the pair reached a 4-month high of $ 1.0593.
Currently the pair is trading in the $ 1.0585, noting the rise of 0.7% on the day. If the AUD will continue to grow, the nearest resistance is located at $ 1.0600 (psychological level) and $ 1.0625 (September 14 high).
likelihood
of catastrophic scenarios much lower
looking
with cautious optimism on 2013
doesn't
expect
banking
union should continue to progress
eurozone
should stick to reform path despite eased market pressure
Oil rose to
the highest level in three months as exports from China accelerated in December
and European Central Bank President Mario Draghi said “a gradual recovery
should start” in the region this year.
Prices
advanced as much as 1.7 percent after
Chinese
December exports exceeded the 5 percent median forecast in a Bloomberg survey
of 40 economists. Exports for all of 2012 rose 7.9 percent, according to the Beijing-based
General Administration of Customs. The country’s December trade surplus almost
doubled from a year earlier to $31.6 billion.
Oil also
gained as the euro surged against the dollar on Draghi’s remarks. The euro rose
as much as 1.2 percent against the dollar on Draghi’s remarks and as
Oil also gained as
Crude oil
for February delivery gained to $94.70, the highest intraday level since Sept.
19.
Brent oil
for February settlement increased 44 cents, or 0.4 percent, to $112.20 a barrel
on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange. Volume was 75 percent above
the 100-day average. Brent’s premium to
The price of gold rose sharply, repeating the dynamics of the euro / dollar, after the results of the ECB meeting. ECB rate was not reduced and was left at the level of 0.75% in spite of the fears that arose last month after Draghi said at a press conference that lowering rates "has been discussed."
This time, few economists expected lower rates, Bloomberg consensus forecast shows that only 5 out of 55 economists expected a rate cut today. Market rally began after ECB President Mario Draghi began to speak at the press conference, saying that the decision on the rate at this time was unanimous.
Draghi has shown some inclination to a loose monetary policy, stating that "the risks surrounding the prospects for the euro area is still bearish." He also added that inflation this year will fall below 2% from the 2.2% observed in late 2012.
Answering journalists' questions, Draghi said it was too early to think about folding super soft monetary policy because the economy is still too weak.
February futures price of gold on COMEX today rose to 1678.80 dollars an ounce, and then decreased to the level of 1678.80 dollars per ounce.
U.S. stock futures rose after Chinese exports topped economists’ estimates.
Global Stocks:
Nikkei 10,652.64 +74.07 +0.70%
Hang Seng 23,354.31 +135.84 +0.59%
Shanghai Composite 2,283.66 +8.32 +0.37%
FTSE 6,115.02 +16.37 +0.27%
CAC 3,720.63 +3.18 +0.09%
DAX 7,767.3 +46.83 +0.61%
Grude oil $94.56 +1.57%
Gold $1669.30 +0.83%
Downgrade
Alcoa (AA) downgraded at Macquarie (Hearing)
Coca-Cola (KO) downgraded to Hold at Argus on weaker outlook; lowering EPS estimates
EUR/USD $1.2975, $1.3045, $1.3050, $1.3100, $1.3250
USD/JPY Y87.50, Y88.00, Y88.50
GBP/USD $1.6000, $1.6100, $1.6145
USD/CHF Chf0.9225
AUD/USD $1.0470, $1.0490, $1.0525, $1.0600
AUD/NZD NZ$1.2545
Data
00:30 Australia Building Permits, m/m November -7.6% +3.1% +2.9%
00:30 Australia Building Permits, y/y November +14.5% +11.6% +13.2%
02:00 China Trade Balance, bln December 19.6 20.1 31.6
05:00 Japan Leading Economic Index November 92.8 93.1 91.9
05:00 Japan Coincident Index November 90.7 90.1
07:45 France Industrial Production, m/m November -0.7% +0.2% +0.5%
07:45 France Industrial Production, y/y November -3.6% -4.0% -3.6%
07:45 France CPI, m/m December -0.2% +0.4% +0.4%
07:45 France CPI, y/y December +1.4% +1.3% +1.5%
12:00 United Kingdom Asset Purchase Facility - 375 375 375
12:00 United Kingdom BoE Interest Rate Decision - 0.50% 0.50% 0.50%
12:00 United Kingdom MPC Rate Statement -
12:45 Eurozone ECB Interest Rate Decision - 0.75% 0.75% 0.75%
In today's trading the euro rose sharply against the dollar, having received support in the early days of the publication of statistics in France, which was better than expected. exceed the expectations of statistics from France. As shown by the data in December consumer price index rose by 0.4%, compared with the average forecast at around +0.3%. At the same time, industrial production increased in November by 0.5%, compared to -0.6% the previous month, and the forecast at around 0.2%. Furthermore, the euro continued, helped by a successful auction in Spain. During the auction Spain posted bond in the amount of € 5.87 billion from the planned € 4-5 billion 2-year bonds sold in the amount of € 3.397 billion, the yield was 2.476% (compared to 3,282% previously). Investor sentiment has improved due to lower yields and increased demand in anticipation of the ECB. But the most important event, which many market participants had expected, was the decision of the ECB to leave interest rates at 0.75%, which was in line with forecasts. However, traders are cautious in anticipation of the press conference., Which is expected to put pressure on the single currency.
The pound rose against the dollar as market participants are awaiting the decision of the Bank of England's monetary policy. Meanwhile, the growth rates had also been called the successful results of the auction in Spain, however, the pound was unable to hold the position, and decreased after the first in the new year meeting, members of the Bank of England MPC decided to keep rates at 0.5 %, and a program of asset purchases at £ 375 billion
EUR / USD: during the European session, the pair rose to $ 1.3123
GBP / USD: during the European session, the pair rose to $ 1.6070
USD / JPY: during the European session, the pair rose to Y88.32
At 13:30 GMT in the euro zone will be the monthly press conference of the ECB. At 13:30 GMT in Canada becomes aware of changes in the volume of building permits issued in November. At the same time, the index will be released in housing prices in the primary market in November. At 13:30 GMT the United States will provide data on the number of initial claims for unemployment insurance in January, and the number of repeat applications for unemployment benefits in December. Finish the day at 23:50 GMT Japan general information on the current account balance and the adjusted total current account surplus for November.
EUR/USD
Offers $1.3190/200, $1.3140/50, $1.3120/30
Bids $1.3030, $1.3010/00, $1.2995/90
GBP/USD
Offers $1.6150/55, $1.6130/35, $1.6100/10, $1.6075/80
Bids $1.5980, $1.5965/60
AUD/USD
Offers $1.0650, $1.0635/40, $1.0600
Bids $1.0520, $1.0500, $1.0480/70, $1.0450/40
EUR/GBP
Offers stg0.8220/25, stg0.8200/10, stg0.8180/85, stg0.8170
Bids stg0.8135/30, stg0.8120, stg0.8105/00, stg0.8080, stg0.8065/60
EUR/JPY
Offers Y117.00, Y116.50, Y116.00
Bids Y114.80/75, Y114.60, Y114.50, Y114.10/00, Y113.50
USD/JPY
Offers Y89.35/40, Y89.00, Y88.50, Y88.35/40
Bids Y87.75/70, Y87.50, Y87.05/00
Major stock indexes in Europe began trading lower, but at the moment are moving in different directions. Uncertainty of market participants due to the forthcoming meeting of the ECB and the Bank of England, as well as the announcement of interest rates.
The focus of the market are also stat data on the number of initial applications from unemployed to receive benefits in the U.S., which will be published at 15:30 Moscow time, and today's meeting in Dublin, European Commission President Jose Manuel Barroso, with Irish Prime Minister Kenny.
FTSE 100 6,106.75 +8.10 +0.13%
DAX 7,739.23 +18.76 +0.24%
CAC 3,713.97 -3.53 -0.09%
Stock quotes British Tesco Plc, which owns the country's largest network of food supermarkets, increased by 2.8% due to the sales of Christmas, which were better than market expectations.
However, the country's largest retailer Marks & Spencer Group Plc reduced capitalization of 4.3% due to the deterioration of sales at stores open more than a year. 13 weeks to 29 December figure for UK stores fell by 1.8%.
Market price of MAN SE jumped 5.8% after the German Volkswagen AG, the largest car manufacturer in Europe, has offered to buy all the shares held by him not MAN, to gain control over the company. At the moment, Volkswagen owns 75.03% of the voting shares of MAN.
EUR/USD $1.2975, $1.3045, $1.3050, $1.3100, $1.3250
USD/JPY Y87.50, Y88.00, Y88.50
GBP/USD $1.6000, $1.6100, $1.6145
USD/CHF Chf0.9225
AUD/USD $1.0470, $1.0490, $1.0525, $1.0600
AUD/NZD NZ$1.2545
Asian stocks climbed, with the regional benchmark index headed for its highest close in 17 months, as China’s export data topped estimates and Japanese carmakers rallied on a weaker yen. Stocks extended gains after China’s exports rose 14.1 percent in December from a year earlier, while imports increased 6 percent, the customs office said today. The pickup in overseas shipments beat the 5 percent median estimate of 40 analysts in a Bloomberg News survey and a 2.9 percent increase the previous month.
Nikkei 225 10,652.64 +74.07 +0.70%
Hang Seng 23,354.31 +135.84 +0.59%
S&P/ASX 200 4,722.96 +14.82 +0.31%
Shanghai Composite 2,283.66 +8.32 +0.37%
China Cosco Holdings Co., China’s biggest shipping company, jumped 6.8 percent in Hong Kong.
Mazda Motor Corp. led automakers higher, climbing 10 percent in Tokyo as Bank of America Corp. recommended buying the shares.
Korea Electric Power Corp., which supplies all of South Korea’s electricity, rose 3.6 percent after raising tariffs.The yen dropped against the dollar for the first time in three days as Prime Minister Shinzo Abe told central-bank governor Masaaki Shirakawa he wants the Bank of Japan to double its inflation goal to 2 percent. Japan’s currency slid versus all of its 16 most-traded peers after Shirakawa said the BOJ was in close contact with the government, adding to bets policy makers will boost stimulus that tends to debase the yen. The bank meets next week. The yen declined versus major peers as Abe talked with Shirakawa at a meeting of Japan’s Council on Economic and Fiscal Policy in Tokyo. The regular gatherings resumed after being abolished by the previous government. Minutes will become available three business days after the meetings are held, according to the Cabinet Office.
The euro fell for a second day against the greenback before the European Central Bank meets. The ECB will keep its main refinancing rate at a record-low 0.75 percent, according to the median forecast of 55 analysts in a Bloomberg survey. Five predicted the central bank will lower the rate to 0.5 percent. Also published the final Eurozone GDP, which are fully consistent with the projections. Later also presented a report on industrial production in Germany, which showed an increase of 0.2%, while analysts had expected an increase of 1.1%.
Pound decreased, which was due to the publication of data showing that the trade deficit fell less than expected. Office for National Statistics said that the trade deficit narrowed to 9.164 billion pounds from 9.487 billion pounds in October, while economists forecast a reduction in the deficit to 9.05 billion pounds.
The Canadian dollar was able to regain some lost ground against the dollar after data on Canada's housing market in December, were slightly better than forecast. The number of housing starts in Canada in December fell by 1.7% compared to November and adjusted for seasonal variation was 197,976 homes a year. This figure was slightly worse than expected. According to the forecast, the number of bookmarks in December should have been 195,000 homes a year.Asian stocks climbed, halting a two- day retreat, as Japan’s Nikkei 225 Stock Average reversed losses after the yen weakened and Alumina Ltd. jumped as partner Alcoa Inc. posted sales that beat estimates.
Nikkei 225 10,578.57 +70.51 +0.67%
Hang Seng 23,218.47 +107.28 +0.46%
S&P/ASX 200 4,708.14 +17.89 +0.38%
Shanghai Composite 2,275.34 -0.73 -0.03%
Alumina rose 4.6 percent in Sydney after Alcoa kicked off U.S. earnings season.
Chemical maker Nufarm Ltd. rallied 6.2 percent in Sydney after Monsanto Co., the world’s biggest seed company, raised its profit forecast.
Honda Motor Co. and Toyota Motor Corp. both climbed more than 1 percent as the yen fell against all of its major counterparts.
European stocks rose to the highest in more than 22 months as Alcoa Inc. began the U.S. earnings season with sales that beat projections.
Alcoa, the largest U.S. aluminum producer, unofficially kicked off the earnings season late yesterday as it reported fourth-quarter sales of $5.9 billion, beating the $5.6 billion average analyst estimate. Fourth-quarter profits from S&P 500 companies probably increased 2.9 percent, according to analysts’ estimates compiled.
German industrial production rose 0.2 percent in November, after a revised 2 percent drop a month earlier, the Economy Ministry in Berlin said. That’s the first time output climbed in four months. Economists on average had predicted a 1 percent increase.
National benchmark indexes advanced in 16 of the 18 western European markets. The U.K.’s FTSE 100 added 0.7 percent, while France’s CAC 40 climbed 0.3 percent. Germany’s DAX gained 0.3 percent.
A gauge of telecommunications shares was the best performer among the 19 industry groups in the Stoxx 600. Mobile-phone operators including Deutsche Telekom AG and France Telecom SA discussed the creation of a pan-European network with Competition Commissioner Joaquin Almunia, the Financial Times reported, citing people familiar with the matter.
Telecom Italia soared 8.8 percent to 75.7 euro cents, the biggest rally since May 2010. Deutsche Telekom advanced 3.4 percent to 9.14 euros and France Telecom climbed 4.3 percent to 8.75 euros. Vodafone Group Plc gained 1.9 percent to 165.5 pence.
Delta Lloyd surged 6.6 percent to 13.71 euros, the largest increase since June 29, after Aviva sold its 19.4 percent stake in the Dutch company for 433.8 million euros ($568 million). Aviva, the U.K.’s second-biggest insurer by market value, slipped 2.2 percent to 373.7 pence.
J Sainsbury Plc lost 2.9 percent to 329.2 pence after the U.K.’s third-largest supermarket chain said same-store sales excluding revenue from fuel rose 0.9 percent in the 14 weeks ended Jan. 5, the weakest of 32 consecutive quarters of gains. A gauge of retail shares was the worst-performing industry group in the Stoxx 600, falling 0.7 percent.
U.S. stocks rose amid growing expectations of market participants about the fact that the season began publishing quarterly reports will be bullish, and the company will be able to demonstrate strong financial results for the last quarter.
Against this background, the current rise is broad. Many components of the index is updated many months DOW highs. In particular, it is worth noting shares United Tech (UTX), which updated the 10-month high, reaching $ 85.31, and shares of JPMorgan Chase (JPM), the price of which has reached the level of $ 46.20 - the highest level since March 2011.
The growth of optimism in the markets was published on the eve of the company's Quarterly Report Alcoa (AA), the output of which unofficially kicked off season reports.
As previously announced, Alcoa profit in the 4th quarter of 2012 was $ 0.06 per share, which was in line with the average forecast. Revenue for the period was $ 5.9 billion (estimate $ 5.61 billion).
In Alcoa expect 7% growth in global demand for aluminum in 2013, compared to 6% growth in 2012. This is higher than previously voiced 6.5% increase required to meet the forecast doubling of global demand for aluminum in 2010-20 years.
Many see financials Alcoa as a barometer of the situation in the industrial sector of the global economy. However, it is worth noting that, according to FactSet reporting Alcoa is not a good indicator for the reporting season in general.
Among the most important corporate reports that will be presented this week, it is worth noting reports Wells Fargo (WFC), which will be presented on Friday.
More intense will be next week, when its quarterly reports will provide Goldman Sachs (GS), JPMorgan Chase (JPM), Bank of America (BAC), and many other large companies.
Most of the components of the index DOW increase in price (18 of 30). Leader shares were Boeing (BA, +3.55%), which increased in the correction after a significant decline in the last two trading sessions. Recall that the reason for the sale of shares in BA Monday and Friday were reported about the technical problems with the Dreamliner.
Maximum loss suffered shares Bank of America (BAC, -4.59%), pressure which had reduced their rating analysts Credit Suisse.
According to trade in all sectors of the S & P index rose. Leaders were conglomerates sector (+1.0%) and consumer goods (+1.0%). Sector utilities and basic materials showed minimal growth (+0.2%).
At the close:
Dow 13,391 +62 +0.47%
Nasdaq 3,106 +14 +0.46%
S & P 500 +0.26% 1.461 400:30 Australia Building Permits, m/m November -7.6% +3.1% +2.9%
00:30 Australia Building Permits, y/y November +14.5% +11.6% +13.2%
02:00 China Trade Balance, bln December 19.6 20.1 31.6
05:00 Japan Leading Economic Index November 92.8 93.1 91.9
05:00 Japan Coincident Index November 90.7 90.1
The yen weakened for a second day and neared a 2 1/2 year-low against the dollar after Prime Minister Shinzo Abe urged Bank of Japan Governor Masaaki Shirakawa to double the central bank’s inflation goal. Shirakawa said yesterday the BOJ was in close cooperation with the government, raising speculation policy makers will boost stimulus when they meet Jan. 21-22. Japan’s currency slid against all of its major peers before data forecast to show the nation’s trade deficit widened. A report tomorrow on Japanese trade will also be a “key focus”. Japanese imports probably exceeded exports by 832 billion yen ($9.45 billion) in November, according to the median estimate of economists surveyed by Bloomberg News. The gap for October was 450.3 billion yen.
Demand for Europe’s shared currency was limited amid signs of a slowdown in the region’s biggest economies. ECB President Mario Draghi and his board will probably keep its main refinancing rate at a record-low 0.75 percent, although 5 of the 55 analysts polled predicted the central bank will lower the benchmark to 0.5 percent.
French manufacturing production probably fell 0.2 percent in November from the previous month, when it dropped 0.9 percent, the median forecast of economists in a Bloomberg survey showed ahead of the data today. German figures yesterday showed industrial production in Europe’s biggest economy trailed economists’ estimates.
Australia’s dollar rose to the highest in more than three weeks versus its U.S. counterpart after China’s trade data boosted export prospects for the South Pacific nation. Shipments from China grew 14.1 percent in December from a year earlier, while imports increased 6 percent, the customs administration said today in Beijing. Economists polled by Bloomberg expected increases of 5 percent and 3.5 percent respectively.
EUR/USD: during the Asian session the pair fell to the previous day's low of $1.3035.
GBP/USD: during the Asian session the pair fell to $1.6000.
USD/JPY: during the Asian session, the pair climbed to Y88.20.
The main features on Thursday's calendar are around lunchtime in London, when both the ECB and the Bank of England release their latest monetary policy decisions. However, there is a full calendar without the central banks. At 0700GMT, the UK government will unveil changes to the calculations of UK inflation measures. There is a string of French data from 0730GMT, starting at 0730GMT with the release of the French BOF Business survey. At 0745GMT, French November industrial output numbers and the December HICP data will cross the wires. At 0900GMT, German November machine orders numbers will be released.
Change % Change Last
Gold 1,658 -4 -0.25%
Oil 93.19 +0.04 +0.04%Change % Change Last
Nikkei 225 10,578.57 +70.51 +0.67%
Hang Seng 23,218.47 +107.28 +0.46%
S&P/ASX 200 4,708.14 +17.89 +0.38%
Shanghai Composite 2,275.34 -0.73 -0.03%
FTSE 100 6,098.65 +45.02 +0.74%
CAC 40 3,717.45 +11.57 +0.31%
DAX 7,720.47 +24.64 +0.32%
Dow 13,391 +62 +0.47%
Nasdaq 3,106 +14 +0.46%
S&P 500 1,461 +4 +0.26%(pare/closed(00:00 GMT +02:00)/change, %)
EUR/USD $1,3064 -0,12%
GBP/USD $1,6021 -0,21%
USD/CHF Chf0,9252 +0,13%
USD/JPY Y87,87 +0,93%
EUR/JPY Y114,78 +0,81%
GBP/JPY Y140,77 +0,76%
AUD/USD $1,0512 +0,09%
NZD/USD $0,8395 +0,37%
USD/CAD C$0,9874 +0,09%00:30 Australia Building Permits, m/m November -7.6% +3.1%
00:30 Australia Building Permits, y/y November +14.5% +11.6% +13.2%
02:00 China Trade Balance, bln December 19.6 20.1
05:00 Japan Leading Economic Index November 92.8 93.1
05:00 Japan Coincident Index November 90.7
07:45 France Industrial Production, m/m November -0.7% +0.2%
07:45 France Industrial Production, y/y November -3.6% -4.0%
07:45 France CPI, m/m December -0.2% +0.4%
07:45 France CPI, y/y December +1.4% +1.3%
12:00 United Kingdom Asset Purchase Facility - 375 375
12:00 United Kingdom BoE Interest Rate Decision - 0.50% 0.50%
12:00 United Kingdom MPC Rate Statement -
12:45 Eurozone ECB Interest Rate Decision - 0.75% 0.75%
13:30 Eurozone ECB Press Conference -
13:30 Canada Building Permits (MoM) November +15.0% +2.4%
13:30 Canada New Housing Price Index November +0.2% +0.2%
13:30 U.S. Initial Jobless Claims January 372 361
15:00 U.S. Wholesale Inventories November +0.6% +0.2%
18:10 U.S. FOMC Member Esther George Speaks -
19:00 U.S. FOMC Member James Bullard Speaks -
23:50 Japan Current Account Total, bln November 376.9 -30.1
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