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CFD Markets News and Forecasts — 11-01-2013
The
Economists
were forecasting a deficit of closer to $1 billion.
The
December deficit was also the lowest December number since 2007, reports Bloomberg.
It's worth
noting that monthly numbers are noisy, and that seasonal factors tend to be
considerable in December.
Regardless, this is an encouraging sign. Receipts were $269.5 billion while the spending was $269.7 billion. This is important to remember, because budget deficits and surpluses aren't just about spending levels. Indeed, growth plays just as important a role.
The yen fell to 2.5-year low against the dollar after the statement of Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, the Bank of Japan should ask to increase employment. Japan's current account deficit in November was 222.4 billion yen ($ 2.5 billion), with projections of 3.5 billion yen, the first deficit in 10 months. Much greater than expected, the deficit of the current account balance in Japan has caused further weakening of the yen against the expectations of the new government's policies. The Japanese government on Friday approved a package of measures to stimulate the economy $ 10.3 trillion yen and promised to strengthen ties with the Bank of Japan as part of efforts to fight deflation and long-term support to the economy. Abe has said repeatedly that the victory over deflation is very important, and expressed the hope that the Bank of Japan has set a target level of inflation 2% from the current 1%. Note that the Japanese currency shows decline for the ninth consecutive week, fixing the most prolonged decline in more than 20 years.
During Friday's trading, USD / JPY rose to 89.46, its highest level since June 2010. Pair EUR / JPY peaked in May 2011 119.35. Pair AUD / JPY rose to 94.51, its highest level since August 2008.
The euro / dollar in Asian and European trading sessions kept after yesterday's sharp growth in speech Draghi, who allowed the euro / dollar gain 200 points. Currency was little support successful auction of government bonds, the Italian Government to the tune of £ 3, 5 billion with a yield of 1.85%. But in the New York session, the euro / dollar rose sharply, breaking through $ 1.3300 after the publication of the U.S. trade balance. In November, the trade balance registered a deficit of $ 48.7 billion against forecasts of $ 41.3 billion and $ 42.1 billion in October. Also today, the U.S. Commerce Department reported that December import prices reflected the decline of 0.1% m / m and 1.5% y / y
The Swiss franc fell to a four-month low against the euro after a government report showed that consumer prices fell in December, slightly more than expected by experts, at the same time fixing its longest slump in four decades.
The falling pound showed today amid evidence that UK industrial output for November showed the dynamics at the level of 0.3% in the month and 2.4% a year, against forecasts of +0.8% and -1.9 %. In addition, production in the manufacturing sector fell by 0.3% and 2.1%, against expectations of +0.5% and -1.3%. NIESR later published a report with the assessment of the British economy, according to which the country's GDP in the 4th quarter decreased by 0.3%, while the UK GDP for the full 2012 has not changed. Meanwhile, for the entire 2011 GDP grew by 0.9%.European stocks rose on a background of successful Italian auction result. After yesterday's successful auction of Spain, the Italian Government also today held a successful auction and the yield of local 3-year bonds reached a low in March to 1.85% (3.5 billion euros).
Positive background also created the news that Japan, which is one of the largest economies in the world, has adopted a program to stimulate the economy amount to $ 116.8 billion These funds will be invested in infrastructure, financial assistance to small businesses and encourage corporate investment, TV channel NHK. Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe believes that extra-soft monetary policy and economic incentives will help the country get out of the recession of the late 2012.
In the U.K., a report showed manufacturing production unexpectedly dropped in November. Factory output decreased 0.3 percent from October. The average estimate compiled had called for it to increase 0.5 percent.
National benchmark indexes gained in 11 of the 18 western- European markets. France’s CAC 40 and Germany’s DAX both advanced 0.1 percent, while the U.K.’s FTSE 100 added 0.3 percent.
A gauge of European mining shares posted the biggest drop of the 19 industry groups in the Stoxx 600, slumping 1.7 percent. BHP Billiton, the world’s largest mining company, declined 2.7 percent to 2,075 pence, its biggest slide since August. Rio Tinto Group lost 1.2 percent to 3,468 pence. Anglo American Plc , which named Mark Cutifani as its new chief executive officer on Jan. 8, dropped 1.5 percent to 2,042 pence.
SAP climbed 1.2 percent to 61.32 euros. The world’s largest maker of enterprise software unveiled a faster version of its Business Suite applications at an event in Palo Alto, California. SAP executives said they aim to replace software from Oracle, Microsoft Corp. and International Business Machines Corp. that customers use to process and analyze information.
Cap Gemini SA added 2.3 percent to 34.29 euros as rival IT outsourcing company Infosys Ltd. jumped the most since its initial public offering in 1993 in Mumbai trading after raising its full-year sales forecast.
Oil dropped
as accelerating Chinese inflation bolstered concern that economic stimulus may
be curbed. The spread between crude in
Futures
fell as much as 1.2 percent after the Chinese government said prices rose the
most in seven months. The discount of West Texas Intermediate oil traded in
The Chinese
consumer price index rose 2.5 percent in December from a year earlier, the
National Bureau of Statistics said today in
Crude oil
for February delivery fell to $92.65 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.
Prices settled at $93.82 yesterday, the highest level since Sept. 18.
Brent oil
for February settlement declined $1.64, or 1.5 percent, to $110.25 a barrel on
the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange. Volume was 39 percent above the
100-day average. The grade is down 1 percent this week.
Gold fell
for the second time in three days as inflation in
Gold
futures for February delivery dropped to $1,655.40 an ounce on the Comex in
Rally USD / JPY at narrowing current account surplus of Japan (Y225.94 billion in November against Y414.1 billion) led the couple to a new high Y89.35 in early Asian trading. Early in the New York session, she again tried to take him and reached Y89.45.
However, the resistance line at Y89.30 was a good level to secure profits. To date, the pair USD / JPY fell to quickly Y89.00/10.
After rallying to a maximum of $ 1.6169 on a report on U.S. trade balance (deficit reflected the growth of $ -42.06 billion to $ -48.73 billion in November from $ -41.30 billion projected) sales returned pair GBP / USD to $ 1.6100 in anticipation of the report on Britain's GDP. Weather for past 3 months, fell by 0.3% in December, according to the NIESR. Earlier, he described the increase of 0.1%. Pair dropped to a low of $ 1.6087 on the news.
U.S. stock futures were little changed as an increase in Chinese inflation intensified concern officials may curb economic stimulus measures.
The U.S. trade deficit unexpectedly widened in November as American retailers stocked up on imported goods for the holidays and demand for foreign automobiles rebounded following superstorm Sandy.
Global Stocks:
Nikkei 10,801.57 +148.93 +1.40%
Hang Seng 23,264.07 -90.24 -0.39%
Shanghai Composite 2,243 -40.66 -1.78%
FTSE 6,110.93 +9.42 +0.15%
CAC 3,693.79 -9.33 -0.25%
DAX 7,709.89 +1.42 +0.02%
Crude oil $93.36 -0.49%
Gold $1673.70 -0.26%
Downgrades:
3M (MMM) downgraded to Underweight from Neutral at JP Morgan
Other:
Apple (AAPL) target lowered to $680 from $770 at Credit Agricole
EUR/USD $1.3175, $1.3200, $1.3250, $1.3350
USD/JPY Y88.25, Y88.50, Y88.65, Y89.00
GBP/USD $1.6175
EUR/GBP stg0.8215
AUD/USD $1.0600, $1.0550, $1.0500Data
01:00 U.S. FOMC Member Narayana Kocherlakota -
01:30 China CPI y/y December +2.0% +2.3% +2.5%
01:30 China PPI y/y December -2.2% -1.8% -1.9%
05:00 Japan Eco Watchers Survey: Current December 40.0 41.1 45.8
05:00 Japan Eco Watchers Survey: Outlook December 41.9 51.0
08:15 Switzerland Consumer Price Index (MoM) December -0.3% -0.1% -0.2%
08:15 Switzerland Consumer Price Index (YoY) December -0.4% -0.3% -0.4%
09:30 United Kingdom Industrial Production (MoM) November -0.9% -0.8% +0.3%
09:30 United Kingdom Industrial Production (YoY) November -3.0% -2.0% -2.4%
09:30 United Kingdom Manufacturing Production (MoM) November -1.3% +0.6% -0.3%
09:30 United Kingdom Manufacturing Production (YoY) November -2.0% -1.3% -2.1%
During the trade the yen hit its weakest level since June 2010 in relation to the dollar, which was caused by the fact that the Japanese government announced the introduction of a new stimulus package of $ 116.8 billion, which would tend to weaken the currency. In addition, Japan will spend around 3.8 trillion yen for disaster prevention and reconstruction of their consequences, and 3.1 trillion yen to stimulate private investment, as well as other measures. Note that the Japanese currency shows decline for the ninth consecutive week, fixing the most prolonged decline in more than 20 years.
The Swiss franc fell to a four-month low against the euro after a government report showed that consumer prices fell in December, slightly more than expected by experts, at the same time fixing its longest slump in four decades.
Meanwhile, the euro after yesterday's sharp growth in trading reserved, and in a narrow range. During the European session, the euro suffered from a lack of factors that could cause it to grow, and is still feeling the effects of yesterday's speech Draghi, who allowed a pair score 200 points. Currency was little support successful auction of government bonds, the Italian Government. Note that the country has placed the paper in the amount of £ 3, 5 billion with a yield of 1.85%.
The falling pound has shown today that was caused by the release of data showing that UK industrial output for November showed the dynamics at the level of 0.3% in the month and 2.4% per year, versus forecasts for 0.8% and -1.9%. In addition, production in the manufacturing sector fell by 0.3% and 2.1%, against expectations of +0.5% and -1.3%.
EUR / USD: during the European session, the pair is trading in the range of $ 1.3246-$ 1.3284
GBP / USD: during the European session the pair fell 1.6105
USD / JPY: during the European session the pair fell to Y88.73
At 13:30 GMT the U.S. and Canada will report on the trade balance for November. At the same time, the U.S. will import prices for December. At 14:30 GMT the U.S. member of the FOMC Charles Plosser will speak. At 15:00 GMT the UK will provide data on the change in GDP from NIESR. At 19:00 GMT the United States will be published monthly performance report for December.
EUR/USD
Offers $1.3380/85, $1.3365/70, $1.3350, $1.3325, $1.3295/310
Bids $1.3250/45, $1.3230/20, $1.3205/00, $1.3180/70, $1.3150/40
AUD/USD
Offers $1.0635/40, $1.0625, $1.0600
Bids $1.0550, $1.0540, $1.0520, $1.0500, $1.0480/70
GBP/USD
Offers $1.6250/60, $1.6230/35, $1.6220, $1.6180/85
Bids $1.6110-095, $1.6065/60, $1.6050/40
EUR/JPY
Offers Y118.70, Y118.55/60, Y118.40, Y118.25/30
Bids Y117.60/50, Y117.20, Y117.00, Y116.50, Y116.00
USD/JPY
Offers Y90.30/35, Y89.50, Y89.35/40
Bids Y88.70/65, Y88.50 , Y88.30, Y88.00
EUR/GBP
Offers stg0.8300, stg0.8275/85, stg0.8260/65
Bids stg0.8205/00, stg0.8180, stg0.8165/60, stg0.8145/35
Negative background shapes lowering the credit rating of Cyprus in three steps - from B3 to Caa3 - with a "negative" outlook, said the rating agency Moody's. The reason for its decline was concern Moody's, due to excessively high levels of public debt and the problems with the capitalization of the banking sector.
EU representative Rehn said that the recovery in Europe will remain slybym in 2013.
Positive background creates the news that Japan, which is one of the largest economies in the world, has adopted a program to stimulate the economy amount to $ 116.8 billion These funds will be invested in infrastructure, financial assistance to small businesses and encourage corporate investment, NHK television channel . Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe believes that extra-soft monetary policy and economic incentives will help the country get out of the recession of the late 2012., Which became
FTSE 100 6,101.62 +0.11 0.00%
DAX 7,708.27 -0.20 0.00%
CAC 3,686.26 -16.86 -0.46%
Shares of software maker SAP AG rose 1.7% on news that the company intends to enter the market for database management systems and settled on it over the next 20 years.
The market value of the largest French computer services provider Cap Gemini has increased by 3,9%, Atos - by 1.3%. Rival Infosys improved revenue forecast for the year, and its market capitalization has increased by 1.2%.
EUR/USD $1.3175, $1.3200, $1.3250, $1.3350
USD/JPY Y88.25, Y88.50, Y88.65, Y89.00
GBP/USD $1.6175
EUR/GBP stg0.8215
AUD/USD $1.0600, $1.0550, $1.0500
Asian stocks swung between gains and losses amid overheating signs as China’s inflation accelerated and Japan approved 10.3 trillion yen ($116 billion) of stimulus measures. The yen touched 89.35 versus the dollar, the weakest level since June 2010, on speculation the Bank of Japan will cooperate with Abe’s government to ramp up monetary easing. Japan’s currency extended declines after the nation posted wider-than- expected current account and trade deficits.
Nikkei 225 10,801.57 +148.93 +1.40%
Hang Seng 23,264.07 -90.24 -0.39%
S&P/ASX 200 4,709.49 -13.47 -0.29%
Shanghai Composite 2,243 -40.66 -1.78%
Agile Property Holdings Ltd. led Chinese developers lower, falling 3.1 percent in Hong Kong.
Sharp Corp. jumped 13 percent in Tokyo after the Mainichi newspaper reported the television maker will record an operating profit.
Sony Corp. and Canon Inc. both gained more than 1 percent as a weaker yen boosted the earnings outlook for Japanese exporters.The euro rose the most in five months versus the dollar as European Central Bank President Mario Draghi said the economy should gradually recover and the decision to refrain from cutting interest rates was unanimous.
The 17-nation currency climbed to the strongest since July 2011 against the yen after Spain sold more than the maximum target at its first debt auction of the year, adding to signs the region’s financial crisis is easing. The Spanish Treasury in Madrid raised 5.82 billion euros ($7.69 billion) from the sale of three bonds, exceeding its upper target of 5 billion euros. The auctions included a new two-year note with so-called collective-action clauses limiting investors’ rights to oppose writedowns.
The yen fell for a second day versus the dollar on bets Japanese policy makers will boost stimulus that tends to weaken the currency. The yen declined against all of its 16 most-traded counterparts except South Africa’s rand after a draft document obtained by Bloomberg News showed the government expects the central bank to conduct “bold” monetary easing. Bank of Japan Governor Masaaki Shirakawa said the BOJ was in close cooperation with the government. The central bank next meets on Jan. 21-22.
Australia’s currency gained for a fifth day as Chinese imports increased. Australia’s dollar strengthened to the highest level in almost four months versus its U.S. counterpart after data showed imports increased in China, the South Pacific nation’s biggest overseas market. Shipments to China rose 6 percent last month, the customs administration said in Beijing.
The British pound rose after it during the first meeting of the new year, the Bank of England MPC members decided to keep the current course of monetary policy unchanged.
Asian stocks climbed, with the regional benchmark index headed for its highest close in 17 months, as China’s export data topped estimates and Japanese carmakers rallied on a weaker yen. Stocks extended gains after China’s exports rose 14.1 percent in December from a year earlier, while imports increased 6 percent, the customs office said today. The pickup in overseas shipments beat the 5 percent median estimate of 40 analysts in a Bloomberg News survey and a 2.9 percent increase the previous month.
Nikkei 225 10,652.64 +74.07 +0.70%
Hang Seng 23,354.31 +135.84 +0.59%
S&P/ASX 200 4,722.96 +14.82 +0.31%
Shanghai Composite 2,283.66 +8.32 +0.37%
China Cosco Holdings Co., China’s biggest shipping company, jumped 6.8 percent in Hong Kong.
Mazda Motor Corp. led automakers higher, climbing 10 percent in Tokyo as Bank of America Corp. recommended buying the shares.
Korea Electric Power Corp., which supplies all of South Korea’s electricity, rose 3.6 percent after raising tariffs.European stocks declined from a 22- month high as European Central Bank policy makers kept the benchmark interest rate at a record low.
ECB policy makers meeting in Frankfurt today left the benchmark rate at a record low of 0.75 percent, as predicted by 50 out of 55 economists in a Bloomberg News survey.
The Bank of England also held its interest rate at a record-low 0.5 percent, in line with economists’ predictions.
National benchmark indexes rose in 10 of the 18 western European markets. The U.K.’s FTSE 100 was little changed. France’s CAC 40 retreated 0.4 percent and Germany’s DAX declined 0.2 percent.
Richemont, the world’s biggest luxury jewelry maker, retreated 2.1 percent to 76 Swiss francs after Tiffany said full-year profit excluding some items will be at the lower end of its previous forecast of $3.20 to $3.40 a share.
Nokia surged 11 percent to 3.32 euros. The Finnish mobile- phone maker seeking to reverse falling sales said operating profit at its handset unit, excluding some items, was at a break-even level or as much as 2 percent of sales. In October, the company projected an operating loss for the unit of 6 percent of sales, plus or minus 4 percentage points.
Tesco gained 1.8 percent to 355.4 pence. The U.K.’s biggest grocer reported the strongest sales growth since 2010 as money- off coupons and an enhanced food offering helped spark a revival. U.K. sales at stores open at least a year rose 1.8 percent in the six weeks ended Jan. 5, excluding gasoline and value-added taxes.
MAN SE gained 3.5 percent to 86.94 euros. Volkswagen AG, Europe’s largest carmaker, will offer to buy out the rest of the German truckmaker’s shareholders to take full control of the company.
U.S. stocks advanced, sending the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index to the highest level in five years, amid better-than-estimated Chinese exports.
Data released today by China's trade surplus was pleasantly surprised players: exports and imports rose in December by 14.1% and 6%, respectively, indicating an increase in world demand.
Optimism also said rising prices for Spanish debt securities after the last auction, where the Spanish government has managed to attract more than planned. Note that today the yield on 10-year government bonds fell to their lowest since November 2010 levels, dropping below the 5% mark.
Upward movement could not stop even confounding expectations statistics from the U.S.. The data released today by the number of applications for unemployment benefits. Figure was worse than expected: in the latest reporting week was obtained 371 thousand initial claims for unemployment benefits against average expectations in the market 361 thousand
Later left the data on stocks in the warehouses of wholesale. Figure the results of November rose 0.6%, the average forecast indicated that it will increase by 0.2%. Growth stocks indicates overstocking, which is a negative factor for the growth of GDP.
Most of the components of the index DOW povycilis in price (25 of 30). According to trade shares in the lead Bank of America (BAC, +3.06%). Maximum loss suffered shares Alcoa (AA, -1.21%).
All sectors of the S & P index rose. Maximum growth shows the financial sector (+1.1%).
Shares of jewelry retailer Tiffany showed the strongest decline among the papers of S & P 500, screened by 4.52% after forecasts for 2013 and sales data. Thus, according to the company's expectations, the annual income would be at the lower threshold of the forecast range amid a slowdown in sales in the U.S. and Asian markets during the holidays. As for sales, in November and December sales growth slowed to 4% to $ 992 million of 7% in the same period in 2011.
American automaker Ford doubled the size of the dividend for the quarter to 10 cents, and this news quotes Ford increased by 2.67%.
Quotations U.S. rare earth miner Molycorp resources fell by 22.7% after the company said that revenues and cash flows will be lower this year due to lower commodity prices and a delay in the implementation plan for the mine in California Mountain Pass.
At the close:
Dow 13,471 +80 +0.60%
Nasdaq 3,122 +16 +0.52%
S & P 500 +0.75% 1.472 1101:30 China CPI y/y December +2.0% +2.3% +2.5%
01:30 China PPI y/y December -2.2% -1.8% -1.9%
05:00 Japan Eco Watchers Survey: Current December 40.0 41.1 45.8
05:00 Japan Eco Watchers Survey: Outlook December 41.9 51.0
The yen touched the weakest level since June 2010 against the dollar on speculation the Bank of Japan will cooperate with Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s government to ramp up efforts to stimulate the economy. Japan’s currency headed for a ninth week of declines as the Cabinet approved 10.3 trillion yen ($116 billion) of fiscal stimulus after the nation posted wider-than-expected current account and trade deficits. The nation’s current account swung to a 222.4 billion yen deficit in November from a 376.9 billion yen surplus the previous month, Finance Ministry data showed today. The median estimate of economists in a Bloomberg News survey was for a 17.1 billion shortfall.
The euro held the biggest gain in five months against the greenback from yesterday before a report that may show the region’s industrial output increased. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg forecast euro-area industrial production rose 0.3 percent in November from the previous month when it fell 1.4 percent. The European Union’s statistics office releases the data on Jan. 14.
The 17-nation currency was supported after the European Central Bank left its main refinancing rate at a record low of 0.75 percent at a meeting yesterday in Frankfurt, as President Mario Draghi said the economy should regain momentum.
EUR/USD: during the Asian session the pair fell to $1.3250.
GBP/USD: during the Asian session, the pair retreated from yesterday's high to $1.6140.
USD/JPY: during the Asian session, the pair climbed to Y89.35, but declined later.
With the central bank meetings for the week behing us, Friday's focus returns to the data calendar. At 0700GMT, the European Commission Vice President Olli Rehn gives a briefing at the European Policy Centre, in Brussels. The data calendar gets underway at 0700GMT, with the release of the French November current account and the November central govt deficit data. At 1830GMT, German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble is slated to speak at University of Heidelberg, in Germany. UK data is released at 0930GMT, when UK November Industrial Production numbers will cross the wires. At 1500GMT, the January monthly GDP Growth Forecast will hit the screens.
Change % Change Last
Oil 93.88 +0.06 +0.06%
Gold 1,673.70 -4.30 -0.26%
Change % Change Last
Nikkei 225 10,652.64 +74.07 +0.70%
Hang Seng 23,354.31 +135.84 +0.59%
S&P/ASX 200 4,722.96 +14.82 +0.31%
Shanghai Composite 2,283.66 +8.32 +0.37%
FTSE 100 6,101.51 +2.86 +0.05%
CAC 40 3,703.12 -14.33 -0.39%
DAX 7,708.47 -12.00 -0.16%
Dow 13,471 +80 +0.60%
Nasdaq 3,122 +16 +0.52%
S&P 500 1,472 +11 +0.75%(pare/closed(00:00 GMT +02:00)/change, %)
EUR/USD $1,3271 +1,56%
GBP/USD $1,6166 +0,90%
USD/CHF Chf0,9141 -1,21%
USD/JPY Y88,77 +1,01%
EUR/JPY Y117,81 +2,57%
GBP/JPY Y143,50 +1,90%
AUD/USD $1,0597 +0,80%
NZD/USD $0,8455 +0,71%
USD/CAD C$0,9832 -0,43%1:00 U.S. FOMC Member Narayana Kocherlakota -
01:30 China CPI y/y December +2.0% +2.3% +2.5%
01:30 China PPI y/y December -2.2% -1.8% -1.9%
05:00 Japan Eco Watchers Survey: Current December 40.0 41.1
05:00 Japan Eco Watchers Survey: Outlook December 41.9
08:15 Switzerland Consumer Price Index (MoM) December -0.3% -0.1%
08:15 Switzerland Consumer Price Index (YoY) December -0.4% -0.3%
09:30 United Kingdom Industrial Production (MoM) November -0.8% -0.8%
09:30 United Kingdom Industrial Production (YoY) November -3.0% -2.0%
09:30 United Kingdom Manufacturing Production (MoM) November -1.3% +0.6%
09:30 United Kingdom Manufacturing Production (YoY) November -2.1% -1.3%
13:30 Canada Trade balance, billions November -0.2 0.3
13:30 U.S. International trade, bln November -42.2 -41.1
13:30 U.S. Import Price Index December -0.9% +0.1%
15:00 United Kingdom NIESR GDP Estimate December +0.1%
19:00 U.S. Federal budget December -172.1 -22.1
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