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CFD Markets News and Forecasts — 14-01-2013
Today during trading the yen hit its lowest level against the dollar since June 2010, which was due to the fact that the Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe will choose a new head of the central bank, which will support the expansion of monetary easing, which will speed up devaluation of the national currency. Against this background, the currency of Japan, the first time since May 2011 reached the level of 120 yen against the yen. Economists say that, in view of the situation is increasingly likely that further easing from the Bank of Japan will continue. In addition, expectations of increasing inflation target help to increase demand for the yen.
The dollar fell against the euro, after U.S. President Barack Obama said at a news conference that the United States can not afford to debate on the debt limit.
New Zealand's dollar, nicknamed the kiwi, rose against all 16 most-traded counterparts after a report showed that the level of retail spending increased.
The Swiss franc fell as European leaders said that the worst days of the crisis of sovereign debt in the region may have ended. Note that investors use this currency as a safe haven in times of financial crisis.
Pound recorded the 7th-session decline against the euro, while showing the longest decline since October, after the government said it may revise the terms of its membership in the European Union.
European stock markets ended lower Monday as investors awaited a speech by U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke, while shares of TNT Express NV plunged after United Parcel Service Inc. said European regulators would block its proposed acquisition of the Dutch package-delivery company.
The Stoxx Europe 600 index fell 0.4% to close at 286.01.
FTSE 100 6,107.86 -13.72 -0.22% CAC 40 3,708.25 +2.23 +0.06% DAX 7,729.52 +13.99 +0.18%
Shares of TNT Express plunged more than 41% and PostNL plummeted nearly 36%, upended as UPS said the European Commission would refuse to approve the U.S. logistics group’s proposed $6.8 billion buyout of TNT Express over competition concerns. PostNL has been attempting to dispose of its nearly 30% stake in TNT.
In Paris, shares of Société Générale SA rose 3.8% and Credit Agricole SA added 3%. Credit Suisse upgraded the French banks to overweight, citing positive effects of 2012 asset disposals and inexpensive valuations relative to peers.
Also higher in Paris, shares of Compagnie de Saint-Gobain SA rose 0.4%. The company said Ardagh Glass Ltd. has made a “binding and irrevocable” offer valued at $1.69 billion for the French conglomerate’s North American unit, which makes glass bottles and jars.
In other deal news, shares of Swatch Group AG rose 4.1% after the Swiss watch company said it paid $750 million for the jewelry and watch brand of Harry Winston Diamond Corp.
European stocks got an early boost after comments from Charles Evans, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago. Media reports said Evans predicted the U.S. economy will grow by 2.5% in 2013, improving to a 3.5% growth rate for gross domestic product in 2014. Read: Monetary policy needs to boost growth: Fed's Evans
Shares of Volkswagen AG gave up an earlier gain to lose 0.1%. Société Générale said it believes the auto maker will continue to outperform in all major markets, but it did reduce earnings forecasts on the group. Volkwagen’s 2013 earnings before interest and taxes forecast was cut to €14.4 billion from €15.8 billion.
Shares of Eurasian Natural Resources Corp. traded 3.5% higher. Credit Suisse analysts upgraded its rating to outperform from neutral, saying they believe that downside risks are now limited and that there are potential re-rating catalysts this year.
The cost of oil fluctuates, due to the expansion of the pipeline, which can reduce the excess in the center of the USA, and with little appreciation of the dollar against the euro.
Prices rebounded slightly since the offshore pipeline running from Cushing (Oklahoma) to the Gulf Coast on January 11 resumed its work in full - up to 400,000 barrels a day, compared with 150,000 barrels before.
Energy Information Administration noted that the expansion of the sea route could reduce oil Cushing, which rose to 50.1 million barrels for the week ended January 4, registering with the highest level since 2004.
In addition, a small increase in oil prices was due to the fact that the weather forecasters said the approach of cold weather to the East Coast and Midwest, which would increase the consumption of fuel oil. According to the data, about 26% of households in the North use fuel oil for heating.
Meanwhile, experts say that the oil market is a bit "nervous" about the national debt ceiling, against which more and more traders have resorted to closing their positions.
February futures price of U.S. light crude oil WTI (Light Sweet Crude Oil) fell to 93.41 dollars a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.
February futures price of North Sea Brent crude oil mix vіrosla by 35 cents to $ 111.00 a barrel on the London Stock Exchange ICE Futures Europe.
Gold prices rose today, taking into account the signals from the currency market, which celebrated optimism associated with the debt crisis in Europe. In addition, market participants are waiting for the speech by Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke.
The most actively traded contract for February delivery rose $ 10.70 recently, or 0.6%, to $ 1,671.30 per troy ounce.
We also note that today the euro rose to a 10-month high against the U.S. dollar, as the economists from the European Central Bank said there is speculation that the worst of the debt crisis in the euro area came to an end.
Traders are also awaiting the speech of Mr. Bernanke at Michigan State University, to be held after the close of Comex. Meanwhile, gold prices have been under pressure amid speculation that the Fed may cut its incentive program to the end of 2013. At the same time, some members of the Fed in favor of slowing or stopping the current program to purchase bonds program earlier than many market watchers had expected.
Note also that the Goldman Sachs analysts said recent retreat in gold prices is a good time to buy in anticipation of the upcoming talks on increasing the U.S. debt ceiling. The Bank considers the talks as "probable catalyst for higher gold prices."
February futures price of gold on COMEX today rose to 1667.20 dollars per ounce.
Next support is at Y88.70 (minimum 11 January) and Y87.95 (minimum 10 January)
U.S. stock futures fell as Apple Inc. (AAPL) tumbled amid reports it cut orders for iPhone components.
Global Stocks:
Hang Seng 23,413.26 +149.19 +0.64% Shanghai Composite 2,311.74 +68.74 +3.06% FTSE 6,114.14 -7.44 -0.12% CAC 3,720.47 +14.45 +0.39% DAX 7,748.54 +33.01 +0.43%Upgrades:
Hewlett-Packard (HPQ) upgraded at JP Morgan from Underweight to Neutral
Facebook (FB) upgraded at Deutsche Bank from Hold to Buy
Cisco Systems (CSCO) upgraded at Robert W. Baird from Neutral to Outperform, target raised from $21 to $25
Downgrades:
American Express (AXP) downgraded at Goldman from Buy to Neutral
IBM (IBM) downgraded at JP Morgan from Overweight to Neutral
Other:
Facebook (FB) reiterated at Oppenheimer on Outperform, target raised from $27 to $34
Sold E7.0bln vs target E6.0bln-E7.2bln
- E3.598bln 3-month BTF, avg yield -0.002% (-0.010%), cover 2.53 (2.35)
- E1.402bln 6-month BTF, avg yield 0.017% (0.000%), cover 3.36(2.86)
- E2.0bln 12-month BTF, avg yield 0.057% (0.035%), cover 2.73 (3.48)
EUR/USD $1.3300, $1.3350, $1.3400
USD/JPY Y88.50, Y89.00, Y89.50
EUR/JPY Y119.00
GBP/USD $1.6100, $1.6130, $1.6200
AUD/USD $1.0510, $1.0550, $1.0600
NZD/USD $0.8300
EUR/USD
Offers $1.3485/90, $1.3450, $1.3420/30
Bids $1.3330/45, $1.3335/20, $1.3310/00, $1.3285/80
AUD/USD
Offers $1.0650, $1.0635/40, $1.0625, $1.0600, $1.0590
Bids $1.0525/20, $1.0480/70, $1.0450
GBP/USD
Offers $1.6220, $1.6200, $1.6180/85
Bids $1.6100, $1.6075/70, $1.6050/35, $1.6010/00, $1.5995/90
EUR/JPY
Offers Y121.00, Y129.50, Y119.65/70
Bids Y119.25/20, Y119.10/00, Y118.50, Y118.00, Y117.50
USD/JPY
Offers Y90.55/60, Y90.50, Y90.30/35, Y89.75
Bids Y89.25/20, Y89.10/00, Y88.75/70, Y88.50 , Y88.30
EUR/GBP
Offers stg0.8350, stg0.8320/25, stg0.8310
Bids stg0.8280, stg0.8250, stg0.8225/20, stg0.8205/00, stg0.8180
European stocks rose after Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago President Charles Evans said the central bank should continue to support economic recovery
Also supported the market comments from ECB Praet, who described the current monetary policy appropriate situation because politicians failed to stop the downward spiral despite persisting downside risks to growth. Now working with these "fear" is more important than lower rates, he added.
In November, industrial production in the euro area without correction for the number of working days decreased by 3.7% y / y vs. -3.3% in October, Eurostat said today. Seasonally weighted index fell by 0.3% m / m vs. 1% a month earlier and forecast +0.1%.
Electricite de France SA rose 4.1 percent to 14.22 euros, for the biggest increase since Nov. 23. The French utility said it will receive 4.9 billion euros ($6.5 billion) in staggered payments through December 2018. The compensation relates to deficits in the Contribution to Electricity Public Services mechanism, EDF said.
Cie. de Saint-Gobain SA advanced 3.2 percent to 32.73 euros. Ardagh Group said it has agreed to buy Verallia North America, the glass bottle-and-jar unit of Saint-Gobain, for $1.7 billion to increase its offering of packaging and expand in the U.S.
TNT Express NV shares plunged 43 percent to 4.69 euros. UPS said it expects European Commission antitrust regulators to block its proposed 5.16 billion-euro takeover of TNT. UPS will pay TNT 200 million euros and withdraw the offer if the regulators prohibit it, the Atlanta-based company said. The decision is expected to be formally adopted in coming weeks, UPS added. PostNL NV, which has an almost 30 percent stake in TNT, tumbled 35 percent to 1.85 euros.
FTSE 100 6,128.11 +6.53 +0.11%
CAC 40 3,721.7 +15.68 +0.42%
DAX 7,759.6 +44.07 +0.57%
Industrial output across the euro zone declined on the month for a third straight period in November as countries in the south of the region recorded a weak performance, in line with declining output seen in separate survey data.
Data from the official European statistical database Eurostat showed industrial output fell 0.3% on the month in November and by 3.7% on the year. The latter fall was the steepest since November 2009 when output slumped 7%.
The weakness of the key sector adds to expectations that the economy struggled again in the final three months of last year, and will likely fail to grow for a third straight quarter.
Concern Over Euro Zone Break Up 'Probably' Gone
'Good Chance' Worst of Crisis Over
Fincl Conditions Better, Should Reach Real Econ at Some Point
Last Rate Decision 'Really Was Unanimous'
Have to Wait and See What Happens, Context Still FragileEUR/USD $1.3300, $1.3350, $1.3400
USD/JPY Y88.50, Y89.00, Y89.50
EUR/JPY Y119.00
GBP/USD $1.6100, $1.6130, $1.6200
AUD/USD $1.0510, $1.0550, $1.0600
NZD/USD $0.8300Asian stocks outside Japan advanced, with a regional gauge heading for its third gain in four days, as Chinese shares rallied after a regulator said China can boost by 10 times quotas for foreign investment in its financial markets.
Nikkei 225 10,801.57 +148.93 +1.40%
S&P/ASX 200 4,719.71 +10.22 +0.22%
Shanghai Composite 2,311.74 +68.74 +3.06%
Citic Securities Co., China’s biggest listed stock brokerage, jumped 5.4 percent in Hong Kong.
China Railway Group Ltd. added 1.2 percent after saying it won contracts worth 29.8 billion yuan ($4.8 billion).
Li & Fung Ltd., a supplier of clothes and toys to retailers, slumped 15 percent in Hong Kong after operating income dropped.
Developer CapitaLand Ltd. sank 4.4 percent in Singapore after the island’s government announced extra property cooling measuresThe yen fell to 2.5-year low against the dollar after the statement of Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, the Bank of Japan should ask to increase employment. Japan's current account deficit in November was 222.4 billion yen ($ 2.5 billion), with projections of 3.5 billion yen, the first deficit in 10 months. Much greater than expected, the deficit of the current account balance in Japan has caused further weakening of the yen against the expectations of the new government's policies. The Japanese government on Friday approved a package of measures to stimulate the economy $ 10.3 trillion yen and promised to strengthen ties with the Bank of Japan as part of efforts to fight deflation and long-term support to the economy. Abe has said repeatedly that the victory over deflation is very important, and expressed the hope that the Bank of Japan has set a target level of inflation 2% from the current 1%. Note that the Japanese currency shows decline for the ninth consecutive week, fixing the most prolonged decline in more than 20 years.
The euro / dollar in Asian and European trading sessions kept after sharp growth in speech Draghi, who allowed the euro / dollar gain 200 points. Currency was little support successful auction of government bonds, the Italian Government to the tune of £ 3, 5 billion with a yield of 1.85%. But in the New York session, the euro / dollar rose sharply, breaking through $ 1.3300 after the publication of the U.S. trade balance. In November, the trade balance registered a deficit of $ 48.7 billion against forecasts of $ 41.3 billion and $ 42.1 billion in October. Also today, the U.S. Commerce Department reported that December import prices reflected the decline of 0.1% m / m and 1.5% y / y
The Swiss franc fell to a four-month low against the euro after a government report showed that consumer prices fell in December, slightly more than expected by experts, at the same time fixing its longest slump in four decades.
The falling pound showed amid evidence that UK industrial output for November showed the dynamics at the level of 0.3% in the month and 2.4% a year, against forecasts of +0.8% and -1.9 %. In addition, production in the manufacturing sector fell by 0.3% and 2.1%, against expectations of +0.5% and -1.3%. NIESR later published a report with the assessment of the British economy, according to which the country's GDP in the 4th quarter decreased by 0.3%, while the UK GDP for the full 2012 has not changed. Meanwhile, for the entire 2011 GDP grew by 0.9%.Asian stocks swung between gains and losses amid overheating signs as China’s inflation accelerated and Japan approved 10.3 trillion yen ($116 billion) of stimulus measures. The yen touched 89.35 versus the dollar, the weakest level since June 2010, on speculation the Bank of Japan will cooperate with Abe’s government to ramp up monetary easing. Japan’s currency extended declines after the nation posted wider-than- expected current account and trade deficits.
Nikkei 225 10,801.57 +148.93 +1.40%
Hang Seng 23,264.07 -90.24 -0.39%
S&P/ASX 200 4,709.49 -13.47 -0.29%
Shanghai Composite 2,243 -40.66 -1.78%
Agile Property Holdings Ltd. led Chinese developers lower, falling 3.1 percent in Hong Kong.
Sharp Corp. jumped 13 percent in Tokyo after the Mainichi newspaper reported the television maker will record an operating profit.
Sony Corp. and Canon Inc. both gained more than 1 percent as a weaker yen boosted the earnings outlook for Japanese exporters.European stocks rose on a background of successful Italian auction result. After yesterday's successful auction of Spain, the Italian Government also today held a successful auction and the yield of local 3-year bonds reached a low in March to 1.85% (3.5 billion euros).
Positive background also created the news that Japan, which is one of the largest economies in the world, has adopted a program to stimulate the economy amount to $ 116.8 billion These funds will be invested in infrastructure, financial assistance to small businesses and encourage corporate investment, TV channel NHK. Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe believes that extra-soft monetary policy and economic incentives will help the country get out of the recession of the late 2012.
In the U.K., a report showed manufacturing production unexpectedly dropped in November. Factory output decreased 0.3 percent from October. The average estimate compiled had called for it to increase 0.5 percent.
National benchmark indexes gained in 11 of the 18 western- European markets. France’s CAC 40 and Germany’s DAX both advanced 0.1 percent, while the U.K.’s FTSE 100 added 0.3 percent.
A gauge of European mining shares posted the biggest drop of the 19 industry groups in the Stoxx 600, slumping 1.7 percent. BHP Billiton, the world’s largest mining company, declined 2.7 percent to 2,075 pence, its biggest slide since August. Rio Tinto Group lost 1.2 percent to 3,468 pence. Anglo American Plc , which named Mark Cutifani as its new chief executive officer on Jan. 8, dropped 1.5 percent to 2,042 pence.
SAP climbed 1.2 percent to 61.32 euros. The world’s largest maker of enterprise software unveiled a faster version of its Business Suite applications at an event in Palo Alto, California. SAP executives said they aim to replace software from Oracle, Microsoft Corp. and International Business Machines Corp. that customers use to process and analyze information.
Cap Gemini SA added 2.3 percent to 34.29 euros as rival IT outsourcing company Infosys Ltd. jumped the most since its initial public offering in 1993 in Mumbai trading after raising its full-year sales forecast.
U.S. stocks held auctions of zero amid pressure from the financial companies led by Wells Fargo & Co. (WFC) and the unfavorable statistics on inflation in China.
According to published data, the consumer price index in China rose in December to a seven-month high, were worse than the average forecast of analysts, which led to rumors of a possible new measures to stimulate the economy.
Negativity in the market was also due to the disappointing statistics UK (stronger than expected fall in industrial production) and the U.S. (growth of the trade deficit to a 7-month high).
Two hours before the end of the session, 19:00 GMT, published data on the U.S. budget deficit, recorded the lowest value since the December 2007 (-0.3 billion), but the results will not reflect on the dynamics of trading.
Decrease in the indices limited positive comments second-largest U.S. oil company Chevron (CVX, +1,14%), in which he stated that the profit for the fourth quarter of 2012 will be significantly higher than in the previous quarter.
DOW index components finished trading mixed. Leader shares were Microsoft (MSFT, +1.40%). Maximum loss incurred stock Boeing (BA, -2.50%).
Sector of the S & P also were mixed with a slight modification. Maximum loss showed basic materials sector (-0.3%) and consumer goods (-0.3%). In the "green zone" dominated tech sector (+0.3%).
The world's largest consumer electronics retailer Best Buy increased its market capitalization by 16.4% due to the fact that its same-store sales in the U.S. for nine weeks ending January 5 remained virtually unchanged.
Paper U.S. lender Wells Fargo weakened by 0.9% despite the report of 24% growth of profits in the fourth quarter.
At the close:
S & P 500 1,472.05 -0.07 0.00%
NASDAQ 3,125.64 +3.88 +0.12%
Dow 13,488.43 +17.21 +0.13%
00:00 Japan Bank holiday -
00:30 Australia ANZ Job Advertisements (MoM) December -2.9% -3.9%
00:30 Australia Home Loans November +0.1% +0.5% -0.5%
The yen fell to the lowest level in more than two years on prospects Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe will select a central bank chief who will expand monetary easing efforts to accelerate the currency’s decline.
The Japanese currency weakened beyond 120 per euro for the first time in 20 months after Abe said he wants someone “who can push through bold monetary policy” as the next governor of the Bank of Japan, which meets next week.
The dollar sank to a more than 10-month low against the euro as Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago President Charles Evans said the U.S. should keep policy accommodative to support the economy. Demand for the greenback was also limited before data tomorrow that may show manufacturing in the New York region failed to expand.
Japan’s markets are shut today for a national holiday.
EUR/USD: during the Asian session, the pair rose to $1.3405.
GBP/USD: during the Asian session, the pair rose to $1.6155.
USD/JPY: during the Asian session, the pair rose to Y89.60.
The European calendar gets underway at 1000GMT, with the release of the EMU November industrial output data. Analysts are looking for industrial production to rise 0.2% on month, down 3.1% on year. At 1100GMT, the EMU November OECD leading indicator numbers will cross the wires. Back on the continent, at 1830GMT, ECB Executive Board member Peter Praet participates in a panel discussion, in Brussels.
00:00 Japan Bank holiday -
00:30 Australia ANZ Job Advertisements (MoM) December -2.9% -3.9%
00:30 Australia Home Loans November +0.1% +0.5% -0.5%
01:20 U.S. FOMC Member Charles Evans Speaks -
10:00 Eurozone Industrial production, (MoM) November -1.4% +0.2%
10:00 Eurozone Industrial Production (YoY) November -3.6% -3.1%
15:30 Canada Bank of Canada Senior Loan Officer IV quarter -15.8
15:30 Canada Bank of Canada business outlook future sales IV quarter 0.0
18:00 New Zealand REINZ Housing Price Index, m/m December +1.4%
21:00 U.S. Fed Chairman Bernanke Speaks -
21:00 New Zealand NZIER Business Confidence IV quarter 8
21:45 New Zealand Food Prices Index, m/m December -0.8%
21:45 New Zealand Food Prices Index, y/y December -0.6%
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