CFD Markets News and Forecasts — 18-01-2013

The euro fell against the dollar after the European Central Bank representative Kere said that the central bank will be forced to repay earlier loans, which were presented to them in a transaction LTRO (long-term refinancing operations), back in 2011. Recall that the loans were offered troubled eurozone banks to increase liquidity of the banking system. Economists say that the early repayment of loans, is likely to cause upward pressure on interbank rates on borrowing, as banks will be forced to go to another place for short-term financing.

The single currency fell to almost maximum, since February 2012, as Kere added that he does not expect the transaction to repay loans LTRO will have an impact on the overnight rate, which is one of two main interbank borrowing rates used in the eurozone. However, since in the last days of borrowing rates rose, the euro began to decline.

The pound fell against the dollar after the published data showed that retail sales fell last month by 0.1%, while analysts had expected an increase of 0.2%. Recall that in the last month, the value of this indicator was unchanged.

The Swiss franc weakened against the euro after the union called on the central bank to change the limit of the exchange rate EUR / CHF up to the level of 1.25 francs, and "defend" it at any cost. Recall that it is now at 1.2 francs, and held at this level since September 2011.

The cost of the Canadian and Australian dollar fell against most currencies, which was due to a decline in commodity prices, including oil.

European stocks were little changed this week as better-than-expected economic data from China and the U.S. offset concern that debt-ceiling talks will weigh on recovering growth in the world’s biggest economy.

Delhaize Group SA (DELB) soared 13 percent as quarterly revenue climbed. JCDecaux SA advanced 11 percent after announcing a contract win. TNT Express NV tumbled 34 percent after United Parcel Service Inc. abandoned its bid for the company. PostNL NV, which holds a stake in TNT, retreated 37 percent.

The Stoxx 600 Europe Index fell less than 0.1 percent to 287.03 this week.

China’s economic growth accelerated for the first time in two years as government efforts to revive demand drove a rebound in industrial output and retail sales.

Gross domestic product advanced 7.9 percent in the fourth quarter from a year earlier, the National Bureau of Statistics said in Beijing on Jan. 18. That compared with the median economist estimate of 7.8 percent in a Bloomberg News survey and growth of 7.4 percent in the third quarter.

National benchmark indexes rose in 12 of Europe’s 18 western markets.

FTSE 100 6,154.41 +22.05 +0.36% CAC 40 3,741.58 -2.53 -0.07% DAX 7,702.23 -33.23 -0.43%

Delhaize rallied 13 percent as the brand repositioning at its Food Lion supermarkets in the U.S. boosted sales volumes. Group revenue for the three months ended Dec. 31 increased 2.3 percent to 5.76 billion euros ($7.66 billion).

JCDecaux (DEC) jumped 11 percent. The world’s largest outdoor advertising company on Jan. 16 announced that its newly formed joint venture with Interstate Outdoor Advertising signed a 20- year partnership with the city of Chicago that will generate $700 million in advertising revenue.

Mediaset SpA (MS) rallied 7.8 percent as analysts including those at Berenberg Bank said they expect a recovery in the advertising market to benefit the broadcaster controlled by former Italian Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi.

TNT slid 34 percent, the most since at least June 2011. PostNL, which holds a 29.8 percent stake in TNT, tumbled 37 percent. The two stocks posted the worst performances this week in the Stoxx 600. (SXXP) UPS, the world’s biggest package-delivery company, on Jan. 14 terminated a 5.16 billion-euro bid for TNT after the European Commission signaled it may block the deal.

Anglo American Plc (AAL) retreated 7.7 percent. The company’s platinum unit, the world’s largest miner of the metal, said this week that it may fire as many as 14,000 workers as it idles four shafts.

The cost of oil fell, breaking with the longest series of growth over the last 14 months, after the published data showed an unexpected decrease in consumer sentiment and the euro continued its decline, which was associated with the official comments from the European Central Bank.

Futures prices fell 0.6%, as the report showed that the consumer sentiment index from Reuters / Michigan Thomson Reuters / Michigan fell in January to the level of 71.3, up from 72.9 in the previous month, as well as forecasts for the rise to the level of 75.

Meanwhile, economists say that now the market will move without a definite trend, in line with the economic indicators. Moreover, the recent strengthening of the dollar, probably prompted investors with a small profit.

Note that the euro fell 0.7% to $ 1.328 after Benoit Kere, who is a member of the executive board of the European Central Bank, said that the central bank will be forced to repay earlier loans, which were presented to them in a transaction LTRO.

Besides experts add that the weak euro and stronger dollar reduced investment in oil as an alternative investment.

February futures price of U.S. light crude oil WTI (Light Sweet Crude Oil) fell to 95.13 dollars a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

February futures price for North Sea petroleum mix of mark Brent rose to $ 111.15 a barrel on the London Stock Exchange ICE Futures Europe.

Today at the start of trading, gold prices rose slightly, which was associated rise in share prices, as well as other commodities, which have responded positively to the submitted data from China and the U.S., which led to an increase in optimism about the prospects for global economic growth.

World shares reached a 20-month high, after a report showed that China's economy grew slightly faster than expected, while expanding by 7.9% in the fourth quarter of 2012. Note also that the impact on the dynamics of trade previously published reports on the U.S. housing market, which showed better than expected data.

In addition, prices also increased by copper and palladium, and even oil.

However, the report released today from the Consumer Sentiment Index Reuters / Michigan in January was much worse than expected by experts that zrazy also put pressure on the price of gold, which has fallen to the lowest level of today. Note that this figure fell to 71.3 from 72.9 in December, while the projected growth to the level of 75.1.

However, economists say that in the long term expectations that the U.S. Federal Reserve will continue its monetary stimulus, as well as concerns about the U.S. financial conditions will hold gold attractive as a hedge against inflation and uncertainty.

Note that the picture for gold in the short term remains positive, given that the price has overcome the immediate aim for the maximum $ 1694, is aimed at the psychological level of $ 1,700.

Analysts say that given the fact that a downward correction was kept area $ 1684 (previous resistance), the price may continue to move from a wave that starts at $ 1653 and ending on the $ 1700 to $ 1709.

Meanwhile, below the $ 1,684 immediate support lies at $ 1673/69, but only the loss of yesterday's low and the bottom of the previous range of $ 1664 would weaken the head of the bulls in the short term.

February futures price of gold on COMEX today fell to 1687.20 dollars per ounce.

U.S. stock futures are mixed as investors watched corporate earnings.

Global Stocks:

Upgrade:
Caterpillar (CAT) upgraded to Overweight from Neutral at Piper Jaffray

Other:
Goldman Sachs (GS) reiterated at Outperform FBR Capital, target raised from $145 to $165

Canadian dollar slightly offset decline against the U.S. dollar after the November manufacturing shipments in Canada rose by 1.7% m / m, exceeding the forecast and showing improvement over the decline in the past month.

Amplification of risk aversion in the markets made ​​a couple update highs above key resistance at C $ 0.9900 today, but after the Canadian data loonie was able to play a few points.

The USD / CAD has appreciated by 0.45% to C $ 0.9909. Resistance is at C $ 0.9925 (maximum of 4 January), C $ 0.9945 (maximum of 2 January) and C $ 0.9970 (maximum of 28 December).

The support is expected at C $ 0.9855 (MA (200) for H1), C $ 0.9835 (Jan. 16 low) and C $ 0.9815 (Jan. 11 low).

EUR/USD $1.3250, $1.3300, $1.3320, $1.3350, $1.3400, $1.343

USD/JPY Y89.75, Y89.50, Y89.00

EUR/JPY Y117.50

GBP/USD $1.5950, $1.6000

EUR/GBP stg0.8320

USD/CHF Chf0.9310

AUD/USD $1.0500, $1.0575, $1.0605, $1.0610, $1.0650

AUD/JPY Y93.50

EUR/AUD A$1.2700

09:30 United Kingdom Retail Sales (MoM) December 0.0% +0.2% -0.1%

09:30 United Kingdom Retail Sales (YoY) December +0.9% +1.0% +0.3%

In the absence of an important regional statistics, the downward trend for the euro is determined disappointing news from the central banks of Spain and Italy. The Bank of Spain said that the problem loans of Spanish banks in November reached a new record high, while total loans fell to the lowest level since July 2007. In November, the volume of non-performing loans increased by 2 billion euros, or 2.69 billion dollars to 191.63 billion euros, or 11.4% of total outstanding loans. In October, the share of non-performing loans was lower - 11.2%. The previous year (in November 2011) it was 7.5%. Performing loans increased for 20 consecutive months due to a sharp increase in the number of bankruptcy cases of house-building companies and growing unemployment. Last year, the government had to intervene and to recapitalize several problem lenders, reported a record loss. Total loans in November fell by 5.7% compared to November 2011 due to low consumer demand for credit and banks after the introduction of tighter monetary policy.

In turn, the Bank of Italy lowered the GDP forecast for Italy to 2013 to -1.0% from the previously expected decline of 0.2% due to the weakness of the global economy and national production.

British pound updated 8-week low against the U.S. dollar on weak retail sales data. In December, the UK retail sales rose by 0.3% y / y vs. 1.1% y / y In monthly terms, had dropped by 0.1% against expectations of 0.2%. Sales excluding fuel marked decline by 0.3% in monthly terms in December vs. 0.1%, while year - rose 1.1% vs. 2.1%. Annual retail sales growth was the lowest since December 2010, when unusually severe weather prevented the British shop in stores. Excluding the December 2010 retail sales were the worst for that month since 1998.

EUR / USD: during the European session the updated at least $ 1.3295

GBP / USD: during the European session the pair fell to a new 8-week low of $ 1.5909

USD / JPY: during the European session, the pair has stabilized in the range of Y89.72 - Y90.05

At 13:30 GMT in Canada will change in the volume of production deliveries in November. At 14:55 GMT the U.S. will release consumer sentiment index from the University of Michigan in January.

EUR/USD

Offers $1.3485-900, $1.3450, $1.3430, $1.3300/05

Bids  $1.3330, $1.3310/00, $1.3260/50

AUD/USD

Offers $1.0625, $1.0600, $1.0590, $1.0575/80,  $1.0555/60, $1.0540, $1.0525/30

Bids  $1.0490/80, $1.0475/70, $1.0455/50, $1.0420, $1.0410/00

GBP/USD

Offers $1.6095/105, $1.6050/55, $1.6030, $1.5855/65

Bids  $1.5920, $1.5900, $1.5885/80, $1.5850

EUR/JPY

Offers Y122.00, Y121.80, Y121.50, Y121.00, Y120.35/40

Bids  Y119.50, Y119.00, Y118.50, Y118.10/00

USD/JPY

Offers Y91.00, Y90.55/60, Y90.50, Y90.40, Y90.20/30

Bids  Y89.50, Y89.10/00, Y88.60/40

EUR/GBP

Offers stg0.8450, stg0.8420, stg0.8400

Bids  stg0.8335/30, stg0.8300, stg0.8260,  stg0.8250,  stg0.8225/20

--cut due to weaker global economy, domestic production

--Italy GDP contracted by more than 2% in 2012

--Italy GDP to turn "slightly positive" in 2014

--Risk for economy still elevated

--Italy deficit 3%/GDP iin 2012 vs 3.9% 2011

--Italy must consolidate gains in public finances and econ reforms

--Capital flows returning to the peripheral countries

Most European stocks climbed as China’s economy accelerated for the first time in two years.

China’s gross domestic product advanced 7.9 percent in the fourth quarter from a year earlier, the National Bureau of Statistics said in Beijing. That compared with the median economist estimate of 7.8 percent and growth of 7.4 percent in the third quarter.

In the U.K., a report from the Office for National Statistics showed that retail sales declined 0.1 percent in December. The median economist estimate had called for an increase of 0.2 percent.

Rio Tinto advanced 1.5 percent to 3,490 pence after Goldman Sachs said the commodity producer may return cash to shareholders. The London-listed mining company might seek goodwill following yesterday’s announcement that it will write down $14 billion for its acquisitions of Alcan Inc. and Riversdale Mining Ltd., the brokerage said. Tom Albanese, who oversaw the purchases as chief executive officer, stepped down.

Ophir Energy gained 3.3 percent to 544.5 pence after Nomura raised its recommendation on the shares to buy from reduce. The U.K. oil and gas explorer may make major discoveries in Gabon and Tanzania, analyst Tom Robinson wrote.

Mediaset SpA jumped 8.3 percent to 2.07 euros after Berenberg Bank raised its price forecast for the shares to 2.60 euros from 1.90 euros and reiterated its buy rating.

FTSE 100 6,165.7 +33.34 +0.54%

CAC 40 3,752.24 +8.13 +0.22%

DAX 7,729.75 -5.71 -0.07%

GBP / USD continued to fall after weak retail sales data in Britain. Breakdown of support, the pair updated session lows at $ 1.5922, noting a decline of 0.4% for the day. In December, the UK retail sales rose by 0.3% y / y vs. 1.1% y / y In monthly terms, had dropped by 0.1% against expectations of 0.2%. Sales excluding fuel marked decline by 0.3% in monthly terms in December vs. 0.1%, while year - rose 1.1% vs. 2.1%. At the moment the pair rebounded from the lows reached in around $ 1.5940.

EUR/USD $1.3250, $1.3300, $1.3320, $1.3400, $1.3435

USD/JPY Y89.75, Y89.50, Y89.00

EUR/JPY Y117.50

GBP/USD $1.5950, $1.6000

EUR/GBP stg0.8320

AUD/USD $1.0500, $1.0575, $1.0605, $1.0610, $1.0650

Asian stocks rose for the first time in three days, with the regional benchmark heading for its biggest advance in a month, after economic reports in the world’s two largest economies beat estimates and the yen traded near a 30-month low.

Nikkei 225 10,913.3 +303.66 +2.86%

Hang Seng 23,601.78 +262.02 +1.12%

S&P/ASX 200 4,771.23 +14.60 +0.31%

Shanghai Composite 2,317.07 +32.16 +1.41%

Honda Motor Co., a Japanese carmaker that gets about 44 percent of sales from North America, climbed 3.2 percent.

Industrial & Commercial Bank of China Ltd., the world’s biggest lender by market value, added 1.2 percent in Hong Kong.

The euro approached a 10-month high against the dollar as a result of placement of bonds of Spain in the amount 4.505 billion euros, which corresponds to the top of the targeted range of 3.5-4.5 billion euros, the cost of borrowing has fallen, which also led to increased confidence in European debt market.

The cost of the single currency rose against all 16 major peers, while the yen fell to its weakest level since 2010 against the dollar, as the newspaper learned that the Bank of Japan (8301) is preparing for further stimulation as early as next week. It is expected that the government will launch a program of asset purchases and unrestricted will use it for as long as inflation does not reach the target mark of 2.0%. The Central Bank will also consider reducing the lower limit of the range of short-term interest rates to zero, and, possibly, lower. In addition, the Minister of Economy, Akira Amari told reporters that his comments that excessive weakening currency was harmful, were misinterpreted. He added that the yen continues to suffer from over-capacity.

The Swiss franc fell to its weakest level against the euro since September 2011, when the central bank introduced a limit on the franc's exchange rate at CHF1, 2 euro. Swiss currency fell against all 16 most-traded currencies, except the yen as speculation that the debt crisis in Europe weakened, undermined the demand for assets seekers.

Earlier, the dollar regained some of its losses against the euro after data showed that housing starts in the U.S. grew by 12.1% last month, which was more than expected. At the same time, another report showed that the number of initial claims for unemployment benefits fell last week to 335,000 while still achieving the lowest level since January 2008.

The Australian dollar fell against most major currencies after a report showed that employers in the country unexpectedly cut jobs in December at 5,500, compared with estimates economist at 4000 people.

Most Asian shares declined, with the regional benchmark index trading lower for a second day, after touching a 17-month high this week. Japan’s Nikkei 225 Stock Average (NKY) closed higher after swinging amid currency fluctuations.

Nikkei 225 10,609.64 +9.20 +0.09%

Hang Seng 23,339.76 -17.23 -0.07%

S&P/ASX 200 4,756.63 +18.18 +0.38%

Shanghai Composite 2,284.91 -24.59 -1.06%

GS Yuasa Corp., a supplier of batteries for Boeing Co.’s 787 aircraft, slumped 5 percent in Tokyo after the Federal Aviation Administration ordered airlines to prove the batteries are safe.

Evergrande Real Estate Group Ltd., China’s biggest developer by sales volume, sank 7.1 percent in Hong Kong after announcing a share sale.

Rio Tinto Group, the world’s second- largest mining company, said after the market close it will take an impairment charge of about $14 billion.

European stocks gained the most in a week as retailers climbed on increased revenue and U.S. housing starts jumped more than forecast to a four-year high.

Carrefour SA, France’s biggest retailer, Delhaize Group SA, the Belgian owner of Food Lion supermarkets, and Associated British Foods Plc (ABF) advanced more than 3 percent. Petropavlovsk Plc surged the most in four months after the gold producer reported better-than-forecast output.

The Stoxx Europe 600 Index (SXXP) rose 0.5 percent to 287.35 at the close of trading, the biggest increase since Jan. 9.

National benchmark indexes climbed in all of the 18 western European markets, except Iceland.

FTSE 100 6,132.36 +28.38 +0.46% CAC 40 3,744.11 +35.62 +0.96% DAX 7,735.46 +44.33 +0.58%

Carrefour jumped 6.1 percent to 20.50 euros, the biggest gain since August. The retailer reported a 0.8 percent increase in fourth-quarter sales because of growth in Latin America, and said business continued to improve in France.

Delhaize surged 10 percent to 35.23 euros, the largest advance since March 2009. The company said its U.S. unit had the best quarterly performance since 2006, spurring organic revenue growth of 2.5 percent for the whole company.

AB Foods gained 3.2 percent to 1,606 pence, the highest price since at least 1986, after saying first-quarter revenue increased 10 percent. The owner of the discount-clothing Primark chain said sales at the unit surged 25 percent.

Petropavlovsk surged 8.9 percent to 403.3 pence, the biggest rally since Sept. 14. The miner of gold in Russia said 2012 output rose 13 percent to 710,400 ounces, beating its 700,000-ounce guidance.

Remy Cointreau SA increased 3.8 percent to 91.78 euros after third-quarter organic revenue rose 0.5 percent, compared with estimates of analysts for a 0.6 percent decline. The company, which produces the Remy Martin cognac, also said cognac sales increased 1.7 percent.

Veolia Environnement SA rose 3.2 percent to 8.88 euros, its biggest gain in five weeks. Chief Executive Officer Antoine Frerot said the world’s largest water company is ahead in a two- year plan to cut debt, costs and sell assets.

SAP declined 1.5 percent to 58.13 euros after Citigroup lowered its recommendation on the stock to neutral from buy. The shares fell the most in six months on Jan. 15 as the world’s biggest maker of business-management software reported fourth- quarter earnings that trailed analysts’ estimates.

Major U.S. stock indexes retreated from session highs, but still ended the session in positive territory

Before the start of today's session have been published data on initial applications for unemployment benefits, which according to the present report for the last reporting period was 335 thousand versus an average forecast of 369 thousand

Also left a strong report on the housing market: Bookmark new homes in December totaled 0.954 million units vs. 0.888 million, and a building permit for the same period reached 0.903 million units vs. 0.900 million

Deterrent to market are weak quarterly reports the financial sector (Bank of America and Citi), and also substantially lower than the forecasts data Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index, which in January was significantly below expectations and values ​​in December (-5.8 points in January compared to the forecast 7.1 and the values ​​for December 8.1).

Most of the components of the index DOW rising in price (25 of 30). At the moment, the leader shares in The Home Depot, Inc. (HD, +2.24%). The maximum losses are shares Bank of America (BAC, -4.33%).

All sectors of the S & P are rising. More than other sectors of manufactured goods rose (+1.4%).

At the close:

Dow +84.86 13,596.09 +0.63%

Nasdaq +18.46 3,136.00 +0.59%

02:00 China GDP y/y IV quarter +7.4% +7.8% +7.9%

02:00 China Industrial Production y/y December +10.1% +10.2% +10.3%

02:00 China Fixed Asset Investment December +20.7% +20.7% +20.6%

04:30 Japan Industrial Production (MoM) (finally) November -1.7% -1.7% -1.4%

04:30 Japan Industrial Production (YoY) (finally) November -5.8% -5.5%

The yen touched a 2 1/2-year low and was set for a 10th weekly decline after BOJ Governor Masaaki Shirakawa, Finance Minister Taro Aso and Economy Minister Akira Amari met today. Japan’s two-year note yield slid to a seven-year low amid speculation the central bank will boost bond purchases to end deflation.

The Swiss franc weakened against all major peers as faster-than-estimated growth in China boosted Asian stocks, sapping demand for haven currencies. China’s economy grew 7.9 percent in the fourth quarter from a year earlier, the National Bureau of Statistics said in Beijing today. The median estimate in a Bloomberg News survey of analysts was for a 7.8 percent gain in gross domestic product. In the third quarter, the economy expanded 7.4 percent from a year earlier.

The New Zealand dollar maintained a drop from yesterday after the nation’s consumer prices unexpectedly fell last quarter, giving the central bank scope to keep borrowing costs at a record low. Consumer prices declined 0.2 percent from the third quarter, when they rose 0.3 percent, Statistics New Zealand said in Wellington today. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand has kept the official cash rate at 2.5 percent since March 2011, and 14 of 16 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News predicted no policy change before June 30.

EUR/USD: during the Asian session, the pair rose to yesterday's high of $1.3390.

GBP/USD: during the Asian session the pair fell to $1.5960.

USD/JPY: during the Asian session, the pair traded in the range of Y89.65-Y90.20.

Change % Change Last

Nikkei 225 10,609.64 +9.20 +0.09%

Hang Seng 23,339.76 -17.23 -0.07%

S&P/ASX 200 4,756.63 +18.18 +0.38%

Shanghai Composite 2,284.91 -24.59 -1.06%

FTSE 100 6,132.36 +28.38 +0.46%

CAC 40 3,744.11 +35.62 +0.96%

DAX 7,735.46 +44.33 +0.58%

Dow +84.86 13,596.09 +0.63%

Nasdaq +18.46 3,136.00 +0.59%

S&P +8.3 1,480.93 +0.56%

(pare/closed(00:00 GMT +02:00)/change, %)

EUR/USD $1,3373 +0,64%

GBP/USD $1,5991 -0,09%

USD/CHF Chf0,9325 +0,15%

USD/JPY Y89,88 +1,68%

EUR/JPY Y120,18 +2,30%

GBP/JPY Y143,71 +1,57%

AUD/USD $1,0544 -0,26%

NZD/USD $0,8361 -0,55%

Change % Change Last

Oil $95.43 -0.06 -0.06%

Gold $1,688.50 -2.30 -0.14%

02:00 China GDP y/y IV quarter +7.4% +7.8% +7.9%

02:00 China Industrial Production y/y December +10.1% +10.2% +10.3%

02:00 China Fixed Asset Investment December +20.7% +20.7% +20.6%

04:30 Japan Industrial Production (MoM) (finally) November -1.7% -1.7%

04:30 Japan Industrial Production (YoY) (finally) November -5.8%

09:30 United Kingdom Retail Sales (MoM) December 0.0% +0.2%

09:30 United Kingdom Retail Sales (YoY) December +0.9% +1.0%

13:30 Canada Manufacturing Shipments (MoM) November -1.4% +0.9%

14:55 U.S. Reuters/Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (preliminary) January 72.9 75.1