CFD Markets News and Forecasts — 23-01-2013

European stocks advanced, after remaining little changed for most of the day, as the U.S. House of Representatives gathered to vote on suspending the country’s debt limit and as results from Novartis to Unilever beat analyst estimates.

In the U.S., representatives in the Republican-led House are voting to pass legislation suspending the government’s $16.4 trillion debt limit until May 19. By postponing a decision on raising the debt ceiling, Republicans plan to focus on other deadlines to seek deeper spending cuts from President Barack Obama and congressional Democrats.

In Europe, Spain’s recession deepened in the last quarter of 2012, a report showed. Gross domestic product shrank for a sixth quarter, contracting 0.6 percent from the previous three months, the Bank of Spain said in an estimate.

National benchmark indexes rose in 11 of the 18 western European markets. The U.K.’s FTSE 100 advanced 0.3 percent, while France’s CAC 40 retreated 0.4 percent. Germany’s DAX added 0.2 percent.

Novartis advanced 4.1 percent to 62.55 Swiss francs, the highest price since August 2008, after saying Chairman Daniel Vasella will step down from the board after 17 years, and Bayer AG’s Joerg Reinhardt will take over as non-executive chairman. Fourth-quarter earnings came in at $1.27 per share, beating projections for $1.25.

Unilever gained 3.1 percent to 2,526 pence in London, the highest price since at least September 1988. The world’s second- biggest consumer-goods company posted fourth-quarter underlying sales growth of 7.8 percent, exceeding the average analyst estimate calling for an increase of 6.2 percent.

SAP AG rose 2.4 percent to 59.20 euros after the biggest maker of business-management software forecast full-year profit will increase at least 12 percent. The company’s cloud, mobile and Hana database businesses are “growing fantastically,” Co- Chief Executive Officer Bill McDermott said in an interview.

Oil declined from a four-month high as the International Monetary Fund cut its global growth forecasts and on speculation that U.S. inventories increased.

Prices dropped for the first time in five days as the dollar strengthened against the euro after the IMF projected a second year of contraction in the euro region.

The world economy will expand 3.5 percent this year, less than the 3.6 percent forecast in October, the Washington-based IMF said today in an update of its World Economic Outlook report. It expects the 17-country euro area to shrink 0.2 percent in 2013, instead of growing 0.2 percent as forecast in October, as Spain leads the contraction and Germany slows.

Stockpiles probably increased 2 million barrels last week after production reached a 20-year high, a Bloomberg survey showed.

West Texas Intermediate crude for March delivery fell to $96.20 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

Brent for March settlement climbed 20 cents to $112.62 a barrel on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange. 

Gold futures declined as the U.S. House of Representatives plans a vote today to temporarily suspend the nation’s borrowing limit and amid concern that demand is slowing in India, the world’s biggest consumer.

The House is expected to pass legislation that would suspend the government’s $16.4 trillion debt limit until May 19. At that point, the U.S. borrowing authority would be automatically increased to accommodate the amount the Treasury borrows. Bullion demand from India may be “muted” in the next few days as buyers wait for clarity on details related to this week’s import-tax increase, UBS AG said today.

Since 1960, Congress has raised or revised the debt limit 79 times, including 49 times under Republican presidents, according to the Treasury Department. Lawmakers have until March 1 before automatic spending reductions will start and until the end of that month to pass a bill to fund the government.

India raised import duties on gold and platinum to 6 percent from 4 percent.

Gold futures for February delivery fell to $1,683.10 an ounce on the Comex in New York, declining for the second time in three sessions.

U.S. stock-index futures are mixed as lawmakers prepared to vote on the federal borrowing limit and investors watched corporate earnings.

Shares of Google Inc. (GOOG) and International Business Machines Corp. (IBM) jumped after reporting earnings that topped estimates.

Upgrade:
Societe Generale upgraded IBM (IBM) from Sell to Hold
B. Riley Caris upgrades Walt Disney (DIS) to Buy from Neutral and raises their target to $63 from $51

Downgrade:
Credit Agricole downgraded DuPont (DD) from Outperform to Underperform

Other:
Oppenheimer reiterated General Electric (GE) at Outperform, target raised from $24 to $25
Cantor Fitzgerald reiterated Google (GOOG) at Buy, target raised from $820 to $900
Pacific Crest raised Google’ target to $820 from $795

EUR/USD $1.3275, $1.3300, $1.3350, $1.3400

USD/JPY Y88.50, Y88.80, Y89.00, Y90.00

EUR/JPY Y120.00

EUR/CHF Chf1.2300, Chf1.2500, Chf1.2515, Chf1.2550

AUD/USD $1.0525

AUD/NZD NZ$1.2570

Data

00:30 Australia CPI, q/q IV quarter +1.4% +0.4% +0.2%

00:30 Australia CPI, y/y IV quarter +2.0% +2.4% +2.2%

02:00 China Leading Index December +1.1% +0.4%

02:00 Japan BoJ monthly economic report January

09:00 Switzerland World Economic Forum Annual Meetings -

09:30 United Kingdom Bank of England Minutes -

09:30 United Kingdom Claimant count December -8.9 0.3 -12.1

09:30 United Kingdom Claimant Count Rate December 4.8% 4.8% 4.8%

09:30 United Kingdom ILO Unemployment Rate November 7.8% 7.8% 7.7%

09:30 United Kingdom Average Earnings, 3m/y November +1.8% +1.6% +1.5%

09:30 United Kingdom Average earnings ex bonuses, 3 m/y November +1.7% +1.5% +1.4%

10:00 Switzerland Credit Suisse ZEW Survey (Expectations) January -15.5 -5.0 -6.9

The yen rose for a third day against the dollar, recording the longest series for almost two months, on speculation that the measures that will be announced by the Bank of Japan is not enough to stimulate economic growth and weaken the currency.

The yen strengthened against 12 of its 16 major counterparts, as many market participants are waiting for the publication of data on the consumer price index, which will be presented this week.

The pound rose as data released today showed that the number of applications for unemployment benefits fell last month to 12,100 people, while reaching the level of 1.56 million in December. This fall was a big surprise to many economists, as projected value of this indicator was to increase by about 300-500 people. Meanwhile, the level of applications for employment of unemployed remained unchanged and amounted to 4.8% at the same time, in line with estimates. At the same time, the unemployment rate, which is calculated according to ILO, fell during September and November to reach 7.7%, compared to 7.8%, while economists had expected the rate will remain unchanged.

Franc rose against the dollar after a report showed confidence among Swiss investors rose in January, registering with the fourth monthly increase, and reached its highest level since May 2012, which adds to signs that the economy may be stabilizing . According to the data, the index of investor expectations, which is used to assess the potential economic development for six consecutive months, rose in January to a level of -6.9, compared with -15.5. At the same time, the index, which measures current economic conditions rose to the level 16 with 6.6.

The euro rose against the dollar, as investors are awaiting a vote in the U.S. House of Representatives. Note that the U.S. House of Representatives today on the initiative of the Republican vote for an automatic increase in the debt ceiling until May 18. Investors in mortgage rates waiting for the issue, which stimulates the growth of the euro, which is trading at 1.3350 before the opening of the New York session.

EUR / USD: during the European session, the pair rose to $ 1.3345

GBP / USD: during the European session after falling to $ 1.5885

USD / JPY: during the European session the pair fell to Y88.62

EUR/USD

Orders $1.3395/405, $1.3380, $1.3360

Bids $1.3280, $1.3260/50, $1.3230/20

GBP/USD

Orders $1.5980, $1.5950, $1.5900/10

Bids $1.5800, $1.5780/70, $1.5755/45

AUD/USD

Orders $1.0635/40, $1.0590

Bids $1.0530/25, , $1.0510/00, $1.0490/80, $1.0475/70

EUR/JPY

Orders Y119.35/40, Y119.00/10, Y118.80, Y118.50, Y118.30/35, Y118.00

Bids Y117.25/20, Y117.10/00, Y116.80/70, Y116.60/50, Y116.00

USD/JPY

Orders Y89.70, Y89.50, Y89.10, Y89.00, Y88.70/80, Y88.45/50

Bids Y88.00, Y87.85/80, Y87.50

EUR/GBP

Orders stg0.8500, stg0.8450, stg0.8440, stg0.8420-30

Bids stg0.8385/75, stg0.8355/50, stg0.8300, stg0.8260

The mood among investors uncertain, is not yet resolved the issue of raising the U.S. debt limit. The White House on Tuesday made it clear that it will not block the Republicans in Congress introduced a bill on the short-term, until May 19, raising the U.S. debt ceiling, according to The Wall Street Journal.

White House spokesman Jay Carney said that if the bill is approved discussed the two chambers and the president comes to the table, he "will not let" its entry into force.

Democrats have a majority in the Senate, according to reports, will also support the project.

Also the market in anticipation of the publication on Thursday will be preliminary data on business activity in the services and industrial sectors eurozone (purchasing managers' index, PMI). Values ​​of both indicators calculated Markit Economics, supposedly improved this month, but remained below 50 - the watershed between the growth and the weakening of activity.

FTSE 100 6,188.72 +9.55 +0.15%

DAX 7,715.74 +19.53 +0.25%

CAC 3,734.30 -4.14 -0.18%

Quotes securities Unilever rose at auction in London for 2.3%. Net profit of the company for the past fingoda increased from 4.25 billion to 4.48 billion euros. Quarterly revenue rose by 7.8%, exceeding the consensus forecast (6.3%).

The stock price of the world's largest mining group BHP Billiton Ltd. rose by 1.1% on a good production data for October-December: the increase in iron ore and hydrocarbons 3%, coal - 5%. BHP expects production growth of iron ore in the current fingodu by 5%. In addition, the company expects to increase production of copper concentrate in Chile Escondida mine by 20%.

Novartis AG stock value rose by 1.8%, as drugmaker expects renewed growth in earnings next year.

Shares of Alcatel-Lucent France rose by 4.7% due to the increase of its rating from "neutral" to "sell" the bank Citi.

Market price of Siemens AG fell 1.3%. Earnings Europe's largest engineering holding from continuing operations declined in October-December by 1.4% - up to 1.3 billion euros, exceeding expectations. However, investors are concerned about the reduction in new orders of 3% in the last quarter.

EUR/USD $1.3200, $1.3295, $1.3300, $1.3350, $1.3365, $1.3400

USD/JPY Y86.50, Y87.15, Y87.75, Y88.50, Y89.00, Y89.50

GBP/USD $1.5850, $1.6000

EUR/CHF Chf1.2335

Asian stocks fell, with Japanese shares trading lower as the yen strengthened a day after the Bank of Japan opted to hold off on fresh monetary stimulus until next year.

Nikkei 225 10,486.99 -222.94 -2.08%

Hang Seng 23,635.1 -23.89 -0.10%

S&P/ASX 200 4,787.83 +8.75 +0.18%

Shanghai Composite 2,320.91 +5.77 +0.25%

Nissan Motor Co., an automaker that gets about a third of its revenue from North America, dropped 2.8 percent in Tokyo.

LG Household & Health Care Ltd., a maker of household products, slumped 7.5 percent in Seoul after forecasting 2013 operating profit that fell short of expectations.

• UK independent, but open too

• Want European Union to be success

• I am in favour of having a referendum on EU

• Will hold in/out referendum if wins 2015 election

• EU in/out referendum would be held between 2015-17

• UK independent, but open too

• Want European Union to be success

• I am in favour of having a referendum on EU

• Will hold in/out referendum if wins 2015 election

• EU in/out referendum would be held between 2015-17

The yen advanced the most in eight months against the dollar after the Bank of Japan said it will conduct open-ended asset purchases starting in January 2014, disappointing investors who expected bolder action sooner. Japan’s currency advanced from almost its weakest versus the dollar since June 2010 as the BOJ under outgoing Governor Masaaki Shirakawa said it will buy 13 trillion yen ($146.6 billion) in assets a month from January 2014 and set a 2 percent inflation target.

The euro rose for the first time in three days against the dollar after data showed that the level of confidence among German investors rose in January to its highest level for the last 2.5 years, adding a sign that Europe's largest economy is gaining momentum. The single currency also rose after the Bundesbank representative has denied speculation that Weidmann plans to step down as president of the central bank of Germany.

Later, the euro fell against the deterioration of statistics from the U.S.. As it became known, sales in the secondary housing market of the United States unexpectedly fell by 1% m / m to 4.94 million, and, according to a Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, economic activity slowed in December.

The pound rose against the dollar, despite the fact that the published data showed a sharp drop in the balance of industrial orders. It is learned that the balance of industrial orders fell in January to the level of -20, compared to -12 in December. Note that according to the average forecast of experts value of this indicator should have been -11. In addition, for the three months ended in January, the balance of industrial orders up 4, contrary to expectations, at 8. However, the rate of decline was much less than -13 in the third quarter.

Asian stocks outside Japan climbed as Samsung Electronics Co. rebounded from a one-month low. The Nikkei 225 Stock Average dropped for a second day as the yen gained after the Bank of Japan said it will wait until next year to start open-ended asset purchases in pursuit of a 2 percent inflation target.

Nikkei 225 10,709.93 -37.81 -0.35%

Hang Seng 23,658.99 +68.08 +0.29%

S&P/ASX 200 4,779.08 +1.58 +0.03%

Shanghai Composite 2,315.14 -13.08 -0.56%

Samsung Electronics, the first South Korean company to be worth more than $200 billion, rose 1.8 percent, erasing yesterday’s decline to the lowest since Dec. 21.

China Merchants Holdings International Ltd., a container port operator, jumped 9.4 percent after a report that the government of Shenzhen is reviewing the use of land the company co-owns.

Honda Motor Co., a Japanese carmaker that gets about 81 percent of sales overseas, dropped 2.3 percent as a stronger yen weighed on the outlook for export earnings.

European stocks were little changed as German investor confidence surged, offsetting an unexpected decline in U.S. sales of existing homes.

German investor confidence increased to the highest in 2 1/2 years in January. The ZEW Center for European Economic Research in Mannheim said its index of investor and analyst expectations, which aims to predict economic developments six months in advance, climbed to 31.5 from 6.9 in December. That’s the highest since May 2010. Economists forecast a gain to 12.

Sales of U.S. existing homes unexpectedly dropped in December, restrained by the lowest supply of properties in more than a decade.

Purchases fell 1 percent to a 4.94 million annual rate last month, the National Association of Realtors said in a report in Washington. That’s the second-highest reading since November 2009. The median forecast of 79 economists called for sales to increase to a 5.1 million rate.

In Asia, the Bank of Japan said it will shift to Federal Reserve-style open-ended asset purchases in its strongest commitment yet to ending two decades of deflation.

National benchmark indexes fell in 11 of the 18 western European markets. The U.K.’s FTSE 100 was little changed, while France’s CAC 40 slipped 0.6 percent. Germany’s DAX lost 0.7 percent.

Vivendi SA, Europe’s biggest media and telecommunications company, lost 4 percent to 16.08 euros. Stephane Roussel, chief executive officer of Vivendi’s SFR phone business, said the unit expects a tough market for as long as 18 months, according to an interview published in Le Parisien.

Rightmove Plc gained 2.8 percent to 1,599 pence as UBS AG upgraded the British property-listings website owner to buy from neutral, saying that its competitive strengths remain intact.

Opap SA rallied 5.1 percent to 6.95 euros after Greek officials met to coordinate state asset-disposal plans, which include the sale of a 33 percent stake in Greece’s biggest gambling company.

Drillisch AG jumped 3.7 percent to 12.30 euros, its highest price in more than 12 years. The German telephone-services provider said it will increase its 2012 dividend to 1 euro a share from 70 cents a year earlier.

U.S. stocks rose, following five- year highs for the benchmark indexes last week, after better- than-forecast earnings from companies including Travelers Cos. and Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold Inc.

Sales of U.S. existing homes unexpectedly fell 1 percent to a 4.94 million annual rate last month, figures from the National Association of Realtors showed today in Washington. The median forecast of 79 economists called for sales to increase to a 5.1 million rate. The reading was still the second-highest since November 2009.

In Asia, the Bank of Japan made its strongest commitment yet to end two decades of stagnation, shifting to Federal Reserve-style open-ended asset purchases. The BOJ pledged to buy about 13 trillion yen ($145 billion) in assets a month from January 2014 and doubled its inflation target without setting a deadline.

Shares of U.S. insurer Travelers (TRV) rose 2.15% after the publication of the quarterly results. Net income fell to $ 304 million against the payments related to the aftermath of Hurricane Sandy, but the operating profit exceeded analysts' forecasts - 72 cents to 14 cents per share.

Quotes of the world's largest copper producer Freeport-McMoran Copper & Gold rose 4.61% on news of the 16% rise in quarterly net profit, with increased production of gold and copper.

Most of the components of the index surged DOW (22 of 30). Leader was led Unitedhealth Group, Inc. (UNH , +2.68%). Maximum loss suffered shares The Coca-Cola Company (KO, -1.51%).

All sectors of the S & P showed an increase. Sector has grown more than other utilities (+1.0%).

Quotes of the Canadian smartphone maker BlackBerry Research in Motion soared by 13% on the statement that the current review of the company could lead to the sale of individual units.

Stock leasing company SeaCube Container Leasing rose 14% on news that the Canadian pension fund has made an offer to purchase SeaCube Container Leasing for about $ 467 million

At the close:

Dow 13,712 +62 +0.46%

Nasdaq 3,143 +8 +0.26%

00:30 Australia CPI, q/q IV quarter +1.4% +0.4% +0.2%

00:30 Australia CPI, y/y IV quarter +2.0% +2.4% +2.2%

02:00 China Leading Index December +1.1% +0.4%

02:00 Japan BoJ monthly economic report January

The yen remained higher following a two-day advance on speculation Japanese inflation data this week will add to evidence that the central bank’s monetary stimulus is failing to increase consumer prices.

The Bank of Japan increased its price-gain target to 2 percent yesterday and announced open-ended asset purchases to start next year. It predicted inflation will accelerate 0.9 percent in the fiscal year beginning April 2014.

The euro was 0.7 percent from its highest in almost 11 months ahead of data that may add to signs of recovery in the region. Goldman Sachs Group Inc. raised its euro forecasts to $1.40 over the next three to six months from previous estimates of $1.25 and $1.33, the bank said in a report yesterday.

The Australian dollar dropped after the statistics bureau said the country’s consumer price index rose 0.2 percent from the previous three months, trailing the 0.4 percent increase estimated by economists in a Bloomberg poll.

The British pound traded near the weakest since February versus the euro before a speech in which Prime Minister David Cameron will promise a referendum on whether the U.K. should leave the European Union.

EUR / USD: during the Asian session the pair fell below $ 1.3300.

GBP / USD: during the Asian session the pair fell to yesterday's lows.

USD / JPY: during the Asian session the pair fell by updating week low.

Change % Change Last

Oil $96.13 -0.11 -0.11%

Change % Change Last

Nikkei 225 10,709.93 -37.81 -0.35%

Hang Seng 23,658.99 +68.08 +0.29%

S&P/ASX 200 4,779.08 +1.58 +0.03%

Shanghai Composite 2,315.14 -13.08 -0.56%

FTSE 100 6,179.17 -1.81 -0.03%

CAC 40 3,741.01 -22.02 -0.59%

DAX 7,696.21 -52.65 -0.68%

Dow 13,712 +62 +0.46%

Nasdaq 3,143 +8 +0.26%

(pare/closed(00:00 GMT +02:00)/change, %)

EUR/USD $1,3322 +0,07%

GBP/USD $1,5837 +0,05%

USD/CHF Chf0,9292 -0,33%

USD/JPY Y88,70 -1,00%

EUR/JPY Y118,18 -0,93%

GBP/JPY Y140,47 -0,98%

AUD/USD $1,0564 +0,46%

NZD/USD $0,8408 +0,57%

USD/CAD C$0,9917 -0,10%

00:30 Australia CPI, q/q IV quarter +1.4% +0.4% +0.2%

00:30 Australia CPI, y/y IV quarter +2.0% +2.4% +2.2%

02:00 China Leading Index December +1.1% +0.4%

02:00 Japan BoJ monthly economic report January

09:00 Switzerland World Economic Forum Annual Meetings -

09:30 United Kingdom Bank of England Minutes -

09:30 United Kingdom Claimant count December -3.0 0.3

09:30 United Kingdom Claimant Count Rate December 4.8% 4.8%

09:30 United Kingdom ILO Unemployment Rate November 7.8% 7.8%

09:30 United Kingdom Average Earnings, 3m/y November +1.8% +1.6%

09:30 United Kingdom Average earnings ex bonuses, 3 m/y November +1.7% +1.5%

10:00 Switzerland Credit Suisse ZEW Survey (Expectations) January -15.5 -5.0

14:00 U.S. Housing Price Index, m/m November +0.5% +0.7%

14:00 U.S. Housing Price Index, y/y November +5.6%

15:00 Canada Bank of Canada Rate - 1.00% 1.00%

15:00 Canada BOC Rate Statement -

15:00 Canada Bank of Canada Monetary Policy Report Quarter I

15:00 Eurozone Consumer Confidence January -26.5 -26.0

16:15 Canada BOC Press Conference -

21:30 U.S. API Crude Oil Inventories - +0.05