CFD Markets News and Forecasts — 28-01-2013

The yen rose against most of the 16 most traded currencies, as many investors have suggested that the currency will stop its decline, which lasted for the past 11 weeks, which was the longest series of decline.

Japan's currency retreated from the minimum value against the dollar since 2010 as the technical indicators have indicated that the currency has declined too much.

The pound fell to its lowest level in more than 13 months against the euro, which was associated with the publication of data from Hometrack, which showed that house prices in England and Wales remained unchanged in December, after declining in the previous six months. Also exerted pressure on the currency earlier statement, which became known that the UK economy shrunk in the last quarter of 2012, more than expected, returned to recession.

The dollar rose against most major currencies, against the background of the fact that many market participants are waiting for the opening of a two-day meeting of the Fed, as well as a report on employment in non-agricultural sectors of the economy, which will be presented on February 1.

Note also that the support of the currency was a report presented by the Ministry of Commerce, which showed that orders for durable goods in the U.S. rose in December by 4.6% after increasing 0.7% in the previous month, although many experts forecast an increase of only 2%.

European stocks were little changed near a 23-month high as U.S. reports showed that durable-goods orders increased in the world’s largest economy while pending sales of houses declined.

SBM Offshore NV (SBMO) rose 3.4 percent after Morgan Stanley raised its recommendation for the stock. Debenhams Plc (DEB), the second-largest U.K. department-store chain, dropped 2.9 percent after Morgan Stanley cut its rating of the shares.

The Stoxx 600 slipped 0.1 percent to 289.36 at the close.

Orders for durable goods in the U.S., the European Union’s largest trading partner, climbed 4.6 percent in December, a Commerce Department report in Washington showed. Economists survey had forecast a gain of 2 percent.

A separate release from the National Association of Realtors showed its index of contracts for the purchase of previously owned homes fell 4.3 percent to 101.7 last month after a revised 1.6 percent increase in the prior month. The median forecast in a Bloomberg survey projected no change in the gauge.

Chinese industrial companies’ profits rose 17 percent to 895 billion yuan ($144 billion) in December from a year earlier, the National Bureau of Statistics said yesterday in Beijing.

National benchmark indexes gained in 11 of the 18 western European markets.

FTSE 100 6,294.41 +9.96 +0.16% CAC 40 3,780.89 +2.73 +0.07% DAX 7,833 -24.97 -0.32%

SBM Offshore gained 3.4 percent to 12.01 euros, a four- month high. The largest maker of floating oil-and-gas platforms was raised to equal weight, a rating similar to neutral, from underweight at Morgan Stanley.

ASML Holding NV added 2.8 percent to 56.23 euros, the highest price since it sold shares to the public in March 1995. Europe’s largest semiconductor-equipment supplier was raised to buy from neutral at Citigroup Inc, citing limited risk associated with capital spending by ASML’s customers.

TNT Express NV advanced 3.3 percent to 5.69 euros after UBS AG upgraded the shares to buy from neutral. The Dutch delivery company’s new management will swiftly act to fix or sell its Brazilian and Chinese operations, UBS said.

Debenhams dropped 2.9 percent to 102.2 pence as Morgan Stanley cut its recommendation on the shares to equal weight from overweight. The brokerage lowered its rating on the U.K. general retail industry to “cautious” and said analysts’ estimates for the industry’s profit growth in 2013 are too high.

Price of oil futures rose, after the reported data showed that orders for durable goods in the U.S. increased, adding optimism that the economic recovery will boost demand for fuel.

Prices rose by 1% after the Commerce Department reported that orders rose in December by 4.6%, compared with a gain of 0.8% in November. Except for the 11.9% strength jump orders for transportation equipment, orders for durable goods rose by a more modest 1.3 per cent in December, compared with a 1.2 percent increase in November. Orders for durable goods excluding defense-products in the U.S. in December rose by 1.2%.

Meanwhile, support for oil prices also had reports of continued fighting in Egypt, which have lasted for five consecutive days, and the data showed that the amount of profits of Chinese industrial enterprises increased, possibly signaling a high demand.

We also recall that, according to information from the Energy Information Administration, oil consumption jumped by 3.9% in the week ended Jan. 18, while reaching 18.6 million barrels a day.

However, despite this positive trend, the oil could not hold its positions, and slightly decreased.

March futures price of U.S. light crude oil WTI (Light Sweet Crude Oil) rose to 96.28 dollars a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Duration of the February futures expire today.

March futures price for North Sea petroleum mix of mark Brent dropped 25 cents to $ 113.08 a barrel on the London Stock Exchange ICE Futures Europe.

Gold prices fell today as some traders reduced the number of futures positions in anticipation of the expiration of their term and also scheduled for this week, the Fed meeting. At the same time helped to stop the decline in the data, which showed that the central banks have increased their gold reserves in December. Note that the head of the increase was the Central Bank of Russia and Kazakhstan. Recall that the central banks have been significant support for the gold market in recent years, since the purchase in the sector exceeded sales of gold reserves. Meanwhile, central banks continue to use gold to diversify their foreign currency reserves.

Experts say that now has been an increase of caution among investors ahead of the first meeting in 2013, the Federal Reserve in 2013, which is due to start on Tuesday and end on Wednesday. Recall that the minutes of the last FOMC meeting seriously roiled markets, as some members have expressed their dissatisfaction with the policy.

February futures price of gold on COMEX today fell to 1654.40 dollars per ounce.

Pending home sales in the U.S. fell by much more than expected in the month of December, according to a report released by the National Association of Realtors on Monday.

NAR said its pending home sales index fell 4.3 percent to 101.7 in December from 106.3 in November. Economists had expected the index to edge down by 0.3 percent.

A pending home sale is one in which a contract was signed but not yet closed. Normally, it takes four to six weeks to close a contracted sale.

The dollar turned around and started to win back losses against the yen, recovering briefly above Y91.00 mark in early U.S. session after a report on orders for durable goods in the U.S. was more than expected.

USD / JPY bounced from the daily low Y90.55 and strengthened over the last hours by more than 50 pips, noting recent session high at Y91.09. However, the pair failed to build on this growth, and it retreated to Y90.80, still -0.13% from its opening price.

U.S. stock futures rose as orders for durable goods climbed last month and Caterpillar Inc. reported profits that topped estimates.
Shares of Caterpillar rose after predicting “better growth” in the second half. The company also said that production will decline this quarter until inventories more closely match demand from customers.

Global Stocks:

Euro slightly weakened in tandem with the dollar after the release of the report, according to which, in December orders for durable goods in the U.S. exceeded analysts' estimates. Orders jumped by 4.6% against expectations of 1.8%, while the index excluding the transport sector increased by 1.3% vs. 0.7%.

After the release of EUR / USD dropped to 10 points in the $ 1.3430 area, but then showed strong growth and was able to improve the night and move it to a maximum of 6 pips to $ 1.3477.

Upgrade:
Procter & Gamble (PG) upgraded from Neutral to Buy at B. Riley Caris Upgrade. Target raised from $72 to $88.
Facebook (FB) upgraded from Mkt Perform to Outperform at Raymond James

Downgrade:
Ford Motor (F) downgraded from Neutral to Underperform at Buckingham Research

With orders for transportation equipment showing a substantial increase, the Commerce Department released a report on Monday showing that orders for U.S. manufactured durable goods rose by much more than expected in the month of December.

The report showed that durable goods orders surged up by 4.6 percent in December following a 0.7 percent increase in November. Economists had been expecting orders to increase by about 1.6 percent.

Excluding an 11.9 percent jump in orders for transportation equipment, durable goods orders increased by a more modest 1.3 percent in December compared to a 1.2 percent increase in November. Ex-transportation orders had been expected to edge up by 0.4 percent.

EUR/USD $1.3325, $1.3350, $1.3390, $1.3400, $1.3450, $1.3490, $1.3500

USD/JPY Y89.50, Y89.85, 90.00, Y91.00, Y91.50

GBP/USD $1.5820

EUR/CHF Chf1.2500

AUD/USD $1.0335, $$1.0400, $1.0450, $1.0500, $1.0550

EUR/AUD A$1.2715

09:00 Eurozone M3 money supply, adjusted y/y December +3.8% +3.9% +3.3%

British pound down against the U.S. dollar and the euro on fears that the next governor of the Bank of England may seek to stimulate sluggish economic growth in the UK, allowing for a higher level of inflation. Players continue selling the pound on Friday after the release of data on the reduction of the UK's GDP in the last quarter of 2012. Because there is a risk of entry of the UK economy in the third since 2008 recession, Governor of the Bank of Canada statement Mark Carney complicated problem pound in light of its transition to the Bank of England in July.

The euro was down against the U.S. dollar after data pointed to the decline in credit to the private sector and, in particular, the low volume of corporate loans. Credit to the private sector banks, the euro zone in December fell by 0.7% compared to the same period of the previous year, after declining by 0.8% in November. The volume of non-financial institutions lending in December fell by 51 billion euros (68.7 billion U.S. dollars), compared with the previous month, after declining by 7 billion euros in November. Lending to households also slowed down, decreasing by EUR 2 billion, after rising by 6 billion euros in November.

EUR / USD: during the European session the pair fell to a new low of $ 1.3424

GBP / USD: during the European session the pair fell to a new low of $ 1.5703 - its weakest level since August 21

USD / JPY: during the European session the pair fell to a new low Y90.56

U.S. 13:30 GMT publish the change in orders for durable goods, including excluding transportation equipment for December at 15:00 GMT - the change in volume of outstanding home sales for December. At 21:45 GMT New Zealand will present the trade balance (for 12 months, from the beginning of the year), trade balance for December. At 23:00 GMT Australia is to publish an index of leading economic indicators from the Conference Board.

EUR/USD

Offers $1.3550, $1.3530, $1.3510/15, $1.3495/500, $1.3480/85, $1.3470,

Bids $1.3420, $1.3405/00, $1.3380/70, $1.3350

GBP/USD

Offers $1.5900/10, $1.5870/80, $1.5850/55, $1.5830

Bids $1.5705/00, $1.5690, $1.5675/70, $1.5650/30, $1.5610/00

AUD/USD

Offers $1.0520/25, $1.0500/10, $1.0480/85, $1.0450

Bids $1.0390, $1.0350, $1.0330, $1.0310/00, $1.0285/80

EUR/JPY

Offers Y123.30/50, Y123.00, Y122.60/80

Bids Y121.60/50, Y121.00, Y120.75/65, Y120.50, Y120.15/00

USD/JPY

Offers Y92.10/20, Y92.00, Y91.80/85, Y91.40/50, Y91.30

Bids Y90.50, Y90.30/20, Y90.00, Y89.85/80

EUR/GBP

Offers stg0.8600, stg0.8575/80

Bids stg0.8500, stg0.8480, stg0.8465/60, stg0.8450, stg0.8415/00

European stocks were little changed near a 23-month high as investors awaited reports on American durable-goods orders and pending house sales.

Orders for durable goods probably climbed in December, showing U.S. manufacturing stabilized following a mid-year slump, according to economists before a report at 8:30 a.m. in Washington. Separately, the National Association of Realtors may say its index of pending sales of houses rose 0.1 percent last month after increasing 1.7 percent the prior month.

Chinese industrial companies’ profits rose 17 percent to 895 billion yuan ($144 billion) in December from a year earlier, the National Bureau of Statistics said yesterday in Beijing.

SBM Offshore gained 3.5 percent to 12.01 euros, a four- month high. The largest maker of floating oil-and-gas platforms was raised to equal weight, a rating similar to neutral, from underweight at Morgan Stanley.

Debenhams Plc, the second-largest U.K. department-store chain, dropped 3.7 percent to 101.4 pence. Morgan Stanley cut its recommendation on the shares to equal weight from overweight. The brokerage lowered its rating on the U.K. general retail industry to “cautious” and said analysts’ estimates for the industry’s profit growth in 2013 are too high.

Growth in Eurozone's broad money aggregate or M3 slowed to 3.3 percent in December from 3.8 percent in November, data from the European Central Bank showed Monday.

Economists expected the rate of growth to accelerate to 3.9 percent. M1 or narrow money supply increased 6.2 percent in December compared to a year earlier.

Credit extended to the private sector fell 0.8 percent year-on-year last month. Loans to households rose 0.5 percent, and lending for house purchase increased 1.3 percent.

Like the EUR / USD, GBP / USD fell before the opening of the European session amid risk aversion, the dregs of the pair to the lowest level since August 21 at $ 1.5714. Now the price has recovered slightly, but still traded intraday decrease (-0.40%).

Britain today does not publish economic reports, but the U.S. will present data on durable goods and pending transactions on housing sales, and will announce the index of manufacturing activity FRB Dallas.

Sold E1.5bln vs target E2.0-E2.75bln

Sold E2.628bln 1.70% Sep 2018 BTPei; avg yield 1.8% (2.46%), cover 1.38 (1.75)

Sold E4.0bln vs target E3.0bln-E4.0bln

EUR/USD $1.3325, $1.3350, $1.3390, $1.3400, $1.3450, $1.3490, $1.3500

USD/JPY Y89.50, Y89.85, 90.00, Y91.00, Y91.50

GBP/USD $1.5820

EUR/CHF Chf1.2500

AUD/USD $1.0335, $$1.0400, $1.0450, $1.0500, $1.0550

Most Asian shares outside Japan rose after Chinese industrial profits increased for a fourth month. Japan’s Nikkei 225 Stock Average, which on Jan. 25 capped its longest streak of weekly gains in more than 40 years, fell as Fanuc Corp. and Hitachi High-Technologies Corp. cut profit forecasts.

Nikkei 225 10,824.31 -102.34 -0.94%

Hang Seng 23,671.88 +91.45 +0.39%

S&P/ASX 200 Closed

Shanghai Composite 2,346.51 +55.20 +2.41%

Anhui Conch Cement Co. led increases among Chinese makers of the material in Hong Kong after Shenyin & Wanguo Securities Co. recommended the sector.

Nintendo Co. and Sony Corp. both climbed more than 3.5 percent on a report China may lift a ban on imports of game consoles.

Fanuc and Hitachi High-Tech each slumped more than 6.6 percent in Tokyo.

The euro rose to its strongest level against the dollar in 11 months as the European Central Bank said banks will hand back a greater amount of three-year loans than analysts estimated, boosting short-term borrowing costs.

The shared currency gained for a seventh week against the yen as the ECB said 278 banks will repay 137.2 billion euros ($184.4 billion) next week, versus an 84 billion-euro forecast in a survey. The yen headed for a record weekly losing streak versus the dollar as Japan’s consumer prices fell. The two-year interest-rate swap spread between the euro and dollar, a key lending rate, increased to the widest in six months.

The yen fell as the government said consumer prices excluding fresh food fell 0.2 percent in December from a year earlier. The central bank announced open-ended asset purchases and a 2 percent inflation target this week. The yen pared losses after government data showed purchases of new U.S. homes unexpectedly fell in December, damping demand for riskier assets. The purchases slid 7.3 percent to a 369,000 annual pace, versus a survey forecast of 385,000.

Pound weakened for a second day against the euro, falling to 13-month low after a report showed that the UK economy shrunk in the fourth quarter than analysts had forecast. Sterling fell to the lowest level in five months against the dollar, as the reduction in the UK has put on the brink of an unprecedented triple recession. According to the report, the gross domestic product declined in the fourth quarter by 0.3%, changing the increase of 0.9% in the third quarter, which was mainly due to increased activity during the Olympics. Note that the projected decline economists should have been 0.1%. Compared with the fourth quarter of 2011, GDP was unchanged, as it was in the third quarter, although the experts forecast an increase of 0.2%.

Asian stocks rose as declines in Japanese consumer prices added to the case for more monetary stimulus, boosting the Topix Index to cap its longest weekly winning streak in 40 years. Shares also gained after U.S. jobless claims fell to a five-year low.

Nikkei 225 10,926.65 +305.78 +2.88%

Hang Seng 23,580.43 -18.47 -0.08%

S&P/ASX 200 4,835.17 +24.95 +0.52%

Shanghai Composite 2,291.3 -11.29 -0.49%

Sony Corp. rose 8.5 percent in Tokyo on a report it may sell its lithium battery business.

Karoon Gas Australia Ltd. (KAR) gained 14 percent after the explorer said it discovered oil in Brazil.

Great Eagle Holdings Ltd. added 14 percent after the real estate company proposed a spin-off of its Hong Kong hotels.

Samsung Electronics Co. dropped 2.5 percent to its lowest close since Nov. 30 after warning the South Korean currency’s strength will hurt future earnings.

European stocks posted a weekly gain, rising to a 23-month high, as German investor confidence climbed to the highest in 2 1/2 years and U.S. lawmakers voted to temporarily suspend the government’s borrowing limit.

In Germany, investor confidence increased to a 2 1/2-year high in January. The ZEW Center for European Economic Research in Mannheim said its index of investor and analyst expectations climbed to 31.5 from 6.9 in December.

A measure of euro-area services and manufacturing output contracted at a slower pace this month than economists had estimated. A composite index based on a survey of purchasing managers in both industries rose to 48.2 from 47.2 in December, Markit Economics said. A reading below 50 indicates that activity shrank.

The European Central Bank said financial firms will repay more of its emergency three-year loans than forecast in another sign the region’s debt crisis is abating. Some 278 financial institutions will return 137.2 billion euros ($185 billion) on Jan. 30, the first opportunity for early repayment of the initial three-year loan, compared with the median projection of 84 billion euros in a survey of economists.

National benchmark indexes rose in 16 of the 18 western European markets this week. France’s CAC 40 added 1 percent and Germany’s DAX Index gained 2 percent. The U.K.’s FTSE 100 Index advanced 2.1 percent even as Britain’s economy shrank a more- than-forecast 0.3 percent in the fourth quarter.

Unilever advanced 4.3 percent in London trading to the highest level since at least 1988. The consumer-goods company reported revenue growth that beat estimates for a third straight quarter, led by gains in North and South America and demand for personal-care products.

EasyJet surged 8.4 percent, its biggest increase in nine weeks. The discount airline rose to its highest price since its initial public offering in November 2000 after saying quarterly sales increased 9.2 percent.

Rightmove Plc rallied 7.2 percent, its biggest weekly advance in 17 months, as analysts at Barclays Plc and UBS AG recommended the shares. The owner of the U.K.’s largest residential property website said the number of sellers coming to market this month is 22 percent higher than a year ago.

Monte Paschi, the world’s oldest bank, sank 12 percent for the biggest drop since July. Italy’s central bank said Jan. 23 that the lender hid documents from regulators on deals that may prompt the bank to restate profit.

Nokia Oyj slid 7 percent after the phone maker reported a seventh straight drop in quarterly revenue and said it will omit a dividend for the first time in at least 14 years.

U.S. stocks rose, giving the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index its longest winning streak since 2004, as Starbucks Corp. and Procter & Gamble Co. reported increased profit and German business confidence beat forecasts.

According to published data, the IFO index of business confidence in Germany in January was 104.2 points, beating the average analyst expectations at 103.0 points, which showed signs of recovery in growth in Europe's largest economy.

Also supported investor sentiment data from the ECB, which showed that 278 EU banks will return 137 160 000 000 euros, issued in the first three-year LTRO (it was expected that the refund amount will be 100 billion euros).

Today before the opening of the major U.S. stock exchanges its financial data for the last quarter were presented by Procter & Gamble (PG, +4,02%). The company's profit and revenue for the most recent reporting quarter was higher than average expectations of market participants, also were increased forecasts for 2013 fiscal year.

Were also strong quarterly figures from Starbucks - operator of the world's largest coffee-shop chain Starbucks increased its market capitalization by 4.10% after it reported an increase in net profit in the first fiscal quarter from $ 382.1 million a year earlier to $ 432.2 million with This comparable sales increased by 7%, exceeding the forecast at average 5.9% growth rate.

Negative impact on the index have reported falling sales of equipment from Caterpillar Inc. (CAT, -1.06%). According to its dealers, at the end of the world in December sales fell by 1%, while sales in the Asia-Pacific region fell by 7%.

The pressure on the index also had published data on home sales in the primary market in the U.S., which were worse than expected.

The fact that the indices are at multi-year highs (DOW and S & P), provokes some investors to take profits ahead of the weekend. It also limits the growth indices.

Most of the components of the index rose DOW (23 of 30). Leader was led Procter & Gamble Co. (PG, +4.02%). More than 1% by the end of trading the shares lost Caterpillar Inc. (CAT, -1.06%) and Wal-Mart Stores Inc. (WMT, -1.13%).

All sectors of the S & P rose, the maximum growth was consumer goods sector (+0.8%) and health (0.8%).

Favorable report on quarterly earnings and sales exceeded the expectations of the market, has led to higher prices for second-largest in the world oil services company Halliburton to 5.05%.

At the close:

S & P 500 1,502.96 +8.14 +0.54%

NASDAQ 3,149.71 +19.33 +0.62%

23:50 Japan CSPI, y/y December -0.5% -0.4%

The dollar reached its highest level in 2 1/2 years versus the yen before data forecast to show a pickup in U.S. durable goods orders, adding to signs of a recovery in the world’s biggest economy. Demand for U.S. goods such as machinery and electronics probably rose 2 percent last month after a 0.8 percent gain in November, according to the median estimate of economists surveyed by Bloomberg News before the Commerce Department publishes the data today. If confirmed, that would be the biggest advance since September.

The greenback strengthened against most of its 16 major counterparts before Federal Reserve officials begin a two-day policy meeting tomorrow.

Declines in the yen were tempered after investors decreased bearish bets and as technical indicators signaled the Japanese currency’s recent drop may have been too rapid. The yen’s 14-day relative strength index against the dollar was at 29.1, below the 30 level that some traders see as a signal an asset has fallen too far, too fast and may be due to reverse course. Against the euro, it was at 28.2.

Japan’s Economy Minister Akira Amari denied his government is actively targeting a weaker yen, saying it’s aimed at defeating deflation. Japan is “absolutely not deviating from global standards,” Amari told the World Economic Forum’s annual meeting in Davos, Switzerland on Jan. 26.

EUR/USD: during the Asian session, the pair traded in the range of $ 1.3450-70.

GBP/USD: during the Asian session the pair fell to $ 1.5750.

USD/JPY: during the Asian session, the pair traded in the range of Y90.85-25.

For today, the first data release is expected at 0900GMT, with the release of the EMU December M3 money supply numbers. Also at 0900GMT, the Italian January ISTAT consumer confidence survey will cross the wires. There are few scheduled central bank speakers, but at 0930GMT, Financial Stability Board Chairman Mark Carney is set to give a press briefing, in Zurich.

09:00 Eurozone M3 money supply, adjusted y/y December +3.8% +3.9%

13:30 U.S. Durable Goods Orders December +0.7% +1.8%

13:30 U.S. Durable Goods Orders ex Transportation December +1.6% +0.8% 13:30

13:30 U.S. Durable goods orders ex defense December +0.8%

15:00 U.S. Pending Home Sales (MoM) December +1.7% +0.5%

15:00 Canada BOC Gov Carney Speaks -

21:45 New Zealand Trade Balance December -0.700 -0.106