Novosti i prognoe: devizno tržište od 01-04-2013

USD/JPY Y93.50, Y94.00, Y94.45, Y94.50, Y95.50

Data

01:00 China Manufacturing PMI March 50.1 51.6 50.9

01:45 China HSBC Manufacturing PMI (Finally) March 51.7 51.7 51.6

09:00 United Kingdom Bank holiday

09:00 France Bank holiday

09:00 Germany Bank holiday

09:00 Switzerland Bank holiday

The yen rose against the dollar while still achieving the highest level in almost four weeks after the economic data from Japan, China and South Korea were lower than expected, which led to higher demand for assets seekers. As shown by the report of the Bank of Japan Tankan, sentiment among large manufacturers improved in the first quarter, but remain in negative territory. According to the data, the index of activity in the sector of large manufacturers rose to -8, compared to -12 in the 4th quarter, while economists forecast a rise to -7. Meanwhile, the report showed that the index of activity in the non-manufacturing sector rose in the first quarter to level 6 to 4 in the last quarter. Note that the index is the difference between the percentage of companies who said business conditions are bad, the share of those who think that they are favorable. The key sentiment index of large manufacturers is in the red six consecutive quarters. Values ​​below zero indicate that the recovery of economic growth after the recession is not stuck in the past six years.

The single currency rose above $ 1.2800 in anticipation of the ECB meeting this week. Analysts expect the European Central Bank President Mario Draghi and his colleagues will leave rates at a record low 0.75%. The decision will be announced on April 4. Adding that many are also waiting for tomorrow's report on unemployment in the euro area. It is expected that the figure for February will rise to a record high of 12%. Additionally tomorrow will be published index of business activity in the manufacturing sector, which is likely to confirm the reduction of the industry for 20 consecutive months. Meanwhile, experts say that, while the recent fall in the euro may provide additional support for the manufacturing sector and the export sector eurozone events in Cyprus may, in turn, undermine confidence among companies and households in the near future. Thus, the process of economic recovery is likely to remain too slow in the coming months, if it ever will.

EUR / USD: during the European session, the pair rose to $ 1.2825

GBP / USD: during the European session, the pair rose to $ 1.5218, but later fell to $ 1.5185

USD / JPY: during the European session the pair fell to Y93.28, and then rose to the level of Y93.86

At 14:00 GMT the U.S. ISM manufacturing index will be released in March.

EUR/USD

Offers $1.2930/50, $1.2920, $1.2885/90, $1.2845/55

Bids $1.2755/50, $1.2735/25, $1.2700

GBP/USD

Offers $1.5300, $1.5280, $1.5240/50, $1.5220

Bids $1.5155/50, $1.5125/20, $1.5100/90, $1.5070

AUD/USD

Offers $1.0550, $1.0520/30, $1.0485/90, $1.0450/60

Bids $1.0383/80, $1.0365/60, $1.0355/50, $1.0320

EUR/GBP

Offers stg0.8555/65, stg0.8510, stg0.8500, stg0.8475/85

Bids stg0.8410/00, stg0.8395/90, stg0.8365/60

EUR/JPY

Offers Y121.87 27, Y121.50, Y120.90/1.00, Y120.88

Bids Y119.21, Y119.00, Y118.80/70

USD/JPY

Offers Y95.50, Y95.10/15, Y94.95/5.00, Y94.80/85, Y94.45/50

Bids Y92.95/90, Y92.70/60, Y92.50/40

USD/JPY Y93.50, Y94.00, Y94.45, Y94.50, Y95.50

EUR/JPY Y121.75, Y122.50

01:00 China Manufacturing PMI March 50.1 51.6 50.9

01:45 China HSBC Manufacturing PMI (Finally) March 51.7 51.7 51.6

The euro fell versus most of its 16 major counterparts ahead of a report tomorrow that may show unemployment in the bloc climbed to a record in February, two days before European Central Bank officials meet to set interest rates. Unemployment in the euro area probably climbed to an all- time high of 12 percent in February, according to the median estimate in a Bloomberg News survey of economists before the European Union’s statistics office releases the report tomorrow. A final reading of a gauge tracking manufacturing in the 17- nation region also due tomorrow may confirm a 20th month of contraction, a separate poll shows. ECB President Mario Draghi and his fellow policy makers will probably keep the 17-nation region’s benchmark interest rate at a record-low 0.75 percent at a meeting on April 4, according to analysts surveyed by Bloomberg.

The yen strengthened, after last month capping its longest string of losses in 12 years, as a drop in Asian stocks spurred demand for safer assets. In Japan, the Tankan large manufacturers’ index climbed to minus 8 last quarter from minus 12 in the three months ended Dec. 31, a BOJ report showed today. The median forecast in a Bloomberg survey of analysts was for an advance to minus 7.

The Australian dollar slid after a report today showed a gauge tracking manufacturing in China, the South Pacific nation’s biggest trading partner, was at 50.9 last month from 50.1 in February. Economists had forecast a gain to 51.2. A similar measure by HSBC Holdings Plc and Markit Economics climbed to 51.6 in March from 50.4 in the previous period.

EUR / USD: during the Asian session the pair fell to $ 1.2770.

GBP / USD: during the Asian session the pair fell to $ 1.5175.

USD / JPY: during the Asian session the pair fell to Y93.80.

With Europe's long Easter weekend continues markets expected to be subdued ahead of the NY open with release of US PMI and ISM data the key afternoon events. Focus this week will turn toward Thursday's ECB rate decision, no change expected but interest to be on Draghi's press conference, especially after Cyprus events. US employment data Friday, expectations for another strong showing, though Thursday's weekly claims will provide interim interest.

01:00 China Manufacturing PMI March 50.1 51.6 50.9

01:45 China HSBC Manufacturing PMI March 51.7 51.7 51.6

09:00 Switzerland Bank holiday

09:00 Germany Bank holiday

09:00 France Bank holiday

09:00 United Kingdom Bank holiday

13:00 U.S. Manufacturing PMI (Finally) March 54.9 55.0

14:00 U.S. Construction Spending, m/m February -2.1% +1.1%

14:00 U.S. ISM Manufacturing March 54.2 54.2