Novosti i prognoe: devizno tržište od 29-03-2013

07:45 France Consumer spending February -0.9% +0.3% -0.2%

07:45 France Consumer spending, y/y February -0.2% +2.0% -2.9%

Euro regained incurred losses early in the session and returned to the area of ​​the opening day. Since the main financial area of ​​Europe and America are closed today in observance of Good Friday, trading is in quiet mode.

Published data on consumer spending in France and the producer price index in France and Germany, which had no significant effect on the single currency.

The pressure on the single currency continues to political uncertainty in Italy. Italy's center-left party leader Pier Luigi Bersani, who last week by President Giorgio Napolitano was asked to form a government, said on Thursday that he could not do it. President George Napolitano said that "immediately" to consider other options of forming a new government. This may mean that in the near future prime minister will still be appointed. During the day, Napolitano intends to hold a series of consultations on the matter with party leaders

Yen falls sixth month in a row against the dollar and is ready to show the longest string of monthly loss in more than a decade at a time when the prospects for a protracted deflation will force the new head of the Bank of Japan Haruhiko Kuroda introduce strong measures to support the economy at its next meeting on April 3-4.

Today also published a report on the consumer price index in Japan, which fell in February 4th straight month amid a sharp decrease in the cost of consumer electronics. Drop in the index CPI excluding fresh food prices by 0.3% on an annualized basis, the average expected decrease of 0.4%.

EUR / USD: during the European session the pair fell to a new low of $ 1.2792 and then recovered in the area of ​​$ 1.2820

GBP / USD: during the European session the pair fell to a new low of $ 1.5176 and then recovered in the area of ​​$ 1.5200

USD / JPY: during the European session, the pair is trading in the range of Y93.93 - Y94.15

At 12:30 GMT the U.S. will release the main index for personal consumption expenditures index-deflator of personal consumption expenditures, changes in the level of spending for February. At 20:00 GMT, Canada will present the annual budget. At 21:00 GMT the report will be made on the currency of the U.S. Treasury.

U.S., Britain, Canada, Australia, Germany, New Zealand, France celebrate Good Friday (Good Friday).

EUR/USD

Offers ---

Bids $1.2740, $1.2710, $1.2700

USD/JPY

Offers Y95.00, Y94.80

Bids  ---

EUR/JPY

Offers Y121.50, Y121.20, Y121.00, Y120.90

Bids Y120.60, Y120.20

Japan's housing starts increased at a slower pace in February, marking the fourth successive slowdown in growth, data released by the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism showed Friday.

Total housing starts increased 3 percent on an annual basis in February, slower than the 5 percent gain seen in January. The rate of growth weakened for the fourth successive month. Economists had forecast a 1.8 percent contraction in February.

The number of housing starts, on an annualized basis, increased to 944,000 in February from 863,000 in the prior month. The expected level was 897,000.

At the same time, construction orders received by big 50 contractors in Japan climbed 16.3 percent year-on-year in February, reversing the 3.7 percent decrease seen in January, data showed.

Core consumer prices in Japan were down 0.3 percent on year in February, the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications said on Friday - beating forecasts for -0.4 percent after showing -0.2 percent in January.

Overall CPI in Japan plummeted 0.7 percent on year - in line with forecasts after dipping 0.3 percent in the previous month.

On month, core CPI added 0.1 percent and overall inflation lost 0.2 percent.

Core inflation for the Tokyo region, considered a leading indicator for the nationwide trend, was down 0.5 percent on year in March versus forecasts for a 0.6 percent contraction, which would have been unchanged from the February reading.

Overall Tokyo CPI dropped 1.0 percent on year, missing forecasts for a 0.9 percent decline, which also would have been unchanged.

On month, Tokyo's core CPI was up 0.4 percent and overall inflation gained 0.3 percent.

The euro rose against the dollar, demonstrating the first gain for the week, which was associated with falling yields on Spanish and Italian government bonds, which is a signal that the banking crisis of Cyprus may be restrained.

The strengthening of the euro contributed to a safe return to work after the Bank of Cyprus to exercise greater control over the movement of bank capital.

We add that the growth of the European currency also helped the weak U.S. data. According to the U.S. Department of Labor report, the number of initial claims for unemployment benefits in the week of March 17-23, increased by 16, 000 and with the seasonally adjusted to 357 000. This is higher than the forecast of economists, who expected that the number of applications was 340,000. The number of initial claims is an indicator of layoffs. The number of initial claims for unemployment benefits last week, March 10-16, was revised to 341,000 from 334 00. Published data are probably a sign that the labor market is to some extent lost its momentum.

In addition, the data would be submitted and the U.S. Commerce Department, which showed that the GDP grew at an annual rate of 0.4% in the fourth quarter compared to the previously reported 0.1% growth. The Ministry of Labour has emphasized that economic activity in the U.S. in the last three months of 2012 increased at a faster pace than previously estimated. But despite the upward revision, GDP growth rates were still lower than estimates of economists who had expected an increase of 0.5%. GDP growth will provide strong business expenses, indicating that companies are intensifying, despite the uncertainty in Washington. Despite the growth in the last quarter of 2012, GDP growth is the weakest level since the beginning of the recovery in the second half of 2009. The economy so far has been growing for 14 consecutive quarters, and for all of last year's GDP grew by 2.2%. But, at the same time, there are signs that the economy in 2013 sat down with the building - good signs coming from the housing market, which shows further improvement, while the unemployment rate is falling.

The British pound rose against the dollar amid mixed statistics. Activity in the UK service sector grew in January at the fastest pace since August. Index of services the UK in January rose by 0.3% compared to the previous month and by 0.8% compared with the same period last year. Increase of activity in the service sector contributed business services, and financial and government services. Another report showed that house prices in the UK continued to rise in March. According to one of the nation's largest mortgage lenders, increase the availability of credit, together with the limited supply of housing will increase prices compared to the same period of the previous year for the first time in more than 12 months. House price index in March Nationwide unchanged compared to February, but rose by 0.8% compared to March 2012. This is the first annual increase since February last year, when the index rose by 0.9%.

00:00 Australia Bank holiday

00:00 New Zealand Bank holiday

05:00 Japan Housing Starts, y/y February +5.0% -1.0% +3.0%

The yen headed for its longest string of monthly losses in more than a decade on prospects lingering deflation will prompt Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda to boost stimulus measures at a policy meeting next week.

The Japanese currency slid versus the dollar this quarter as Kuroda pledged action to achieve the central bank’s 2 percent annual inflation target. Kuroda will preside over his first BOJ policy meeting on April 3-4.  A report today showed consumer-price declines accelerated in February at the fastest pace in 2 1/2 years. Japan’s consumer prices fell 0.7 percent in February from a year earlier, compared with a 0.3 percent decline in the previous period, the statistics bureau reported in Tokyo today. That’s the biggest drop since August 2010 and in line with the median estimate of economists surveyed by Bloomberg News.

The euro weakened against the greenback, extending a quarterly drop, as Italy’s search for a prime minister continues. In Italy, President Giorgio Napolitano took charge of the search for the next prime minister after Pier Luigi Bersani was unable to assemble a majority in the divided parliament. Napolitano will consult political leaders today.

The euro strengthened yesterday after Cyprus averted panic withdrawals as banks opened for the first time in almost two weeks, with government controls on access to cash leading to orderly lines rather than runs on deposits.

The Australian dollar rose before the Reserve Bank meets next week.

EUR / USD: during the Asian session, the pair rose to $ 1.2835.

GBP / USD: during the Asian session, the pair rose to $ 1.5220.

USD / JPY: during the Asian session the pair fell to Y93.95.

(pare/closed(00:00 GMT +02:00)/change, %)

EUR/USD $1,2814 +0,29%

GBP/USD $1,5188 +0,41%

USD/CHF Chf0,9497 -0,43%

USD/JPY Y94,20 -0,18%

EUR/JPY Y120,72 +0,09%

GBP/JPY Y143,07 +0,23%

AUD/USD $1,0407 -0,46%

NZD/USD $0,8366 +0,01%

00:00 Australia Bank holiday

00:00 New Zealand Bank holiday

00:00 Switzerland Bank holiday

00:00 Germany Bank holiday

00:00 United Kingdom Bank holiday

00:00 Canada Bank holiday

01:00 China Leading Index February 100.50

05:00 Japan Housing Starts, y/y February +5.0% -1.0%

07:45 France Consumer spending February -0.8% +0.3%

07:45 France Consumer spending, y/y February -0.2% +2.0%

12:30 U.S. Personal Income, m/m February -3.6% +1.0%

12:30 U.S. Personal spending February +0.2% +0.6%

12:30 U.S. PCE price index ex food, energy, m/m February +0.1% +0.1%

12:30 U.S. PCE price index ex food, energy, Y/Y February +1.3% +1.3%

13:55 U.S. Reuters/Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (Finally) March 71.8 73.2