Novosti i prognoe: devizno tržište od 01-10-2013

EUR/USD $1.3425, $1.3450, $1.3460, $1.3550, $1.3570, $1.3575, $1.3580, $1.3600

GBP/USD $1.6000, $1.6130, $1.6170

USD/JPY Y997.00, Y97.50, Y97.95, Y98.00, Y98.20, Y99.00, Y99.30, Y100.00

AUD/USD $0.9160, $0.9320, $0.9400

USD/CAD Cad1.0310

GBP/JPY Y157.00

EUR/GBP stg0.8350

NZD/USD $0.8260, Z$0.8345

EUR/JPY Y131.10, Y133.50

AUD/JPY Y93.10

EUR/CHF Chf1.2245

Data

00:00 China Bank holiday

01:00 China Manufacturing PMI September 51.0 51.6 51.1

01:30 Australia Retail sales (MoM) August +0.1% +0.3% +0.4%

01:30 Australia Retail Sales Y/Y August +2.0% Revised From +1.9% +2.3%

01:30 Japan Labor Cash Earnings, YoY August +0.1% Revised From +0.4% -0.2% -0.6%

04:30 Australia Announcement of the RBA decision on the discount rate 2.50% 2.50% 2.50%

04:30 Australia RBA Rate Statement

06:30 Australia RBA Commodity prices, y/y September -7.3% -3.1%

07:30 Switzerland Manufacturing PMI September 54.6 54.9 55.3

07:48 France Manufacturing PMI (Finally) September 49.5 49.5 49.8

07:53 Germany Manufacturing PMI (Finally) September 51.3 51.3 51.1

07:55 Germany Unemployment Change September 7 -5 25

07:55 Germany Unemployment Rate s.a. September 6.8% 6.8% 6.9%

07:58 Eurozone Manufacturing PMI (Finally) September 51.1 51.1 51.1

08:10 United Kingdom MPC Member Tucker Speaks

08:30 United Kingdom Purchasing Manager Index Manufacturing September 57.2 57.5 56.7

09:00 Eurozone Unemployment Rate August 12.1% 12.1% 12.0%

09:00 Japan Prime Minister Shinzo Abe Speaks

Euro traded higher against the dollar, although some of the previously lost positions gained . Note that the initial driver for the growth of European currency was the fact that the U.S. Senate refused to accept the budget law , as amended Republicans. Document against 54 senators voted for - 46. Earlier, the lower house for the third time this week returned the bill to the Senate. Further amendments provide for a delay prescriptions millions of Americans to purchase health insurance, and the abolition of subsidies for insurance for congressmen and members administratsii.V therefore administration of U.S. President has ordered a freeze of several government agencies. The decision to freeze the work of federal agencies directly affect about 800,000 state employees , who went on unpaid leave . Among other things , suspended the work of NASA, except the flight control center .

Add that little pressure on the euro was data for Germany , which showed that by the end of last month, the number of people who registered as unemployed has increased significantly , contrary to the expectations of experts on a slight decline .

According to the report, the seasonally adjusted number of unemployed rose in September by 25,000 people, compared with the upwardly revised figure for the previous month at 9,000 . Note that according to the average forecasts of experts the value of this indicator was down by 5 thousand Given this unexpected increase in the adjusted unemployment rate in Germany rose to 6.9 % , down from 6.8 % in August. It was expected that the unemployment rate will remain unchanged.

Also negatively impacted by currency report on the euro area, which showed that up to September Eurozone manufacturing sector continued to expand, albeit at a slower pace than was seen in the previous month. According to the report, the purchasing managers' index for the sphere of production fell in September to a level of 51.1 , compared with 51.4 in August ( 26 -month maximum). Note that the final result was in line with the preliminary estimate , released last month, and also confirmed the predictions of experts. We add that , in spite of the recession , the manufacturing sector remains above the 50 level for the third month in succession.

The British pound strengthened against the dollar, responding thus to end the work of the U.S. government . Note that the dynamics of trading almost did not affect data on the manufacturing sector.

The report showed that the seasonally adjusted purchasing managers' index for the manufacturing sector fell last month to a level of 56.7 , compared with a revised downwards index for August at 57.1 (initially reported 57.2 ) . Recall that the result for August was the best two and a half years. Economists had expected up to September this indicator will rise to the level of 57.5 . We add that the index is still above the 50 mark that separates growth from contraction for the sixth month in a row .

Meanwhile, data showed that the volume of new orders in the manufacturing sector continued to grow strongly , with significant contribution from the domestic market. With this in mind, the company significantly increased its staff by showing with the fastest pace since May 2011 , in order to cope with the increased workload .

EUR / USD: during the European session, the pair rose to $ 1.3588 , and then fell to $ 1.3535

GBP / USD: during the European session, the pair rose to $ 1.6260

USD / JPY: during the European session, the pair fell to Y97.65

At 14:00 GMT the U.S. will release the ISM manufacturing index for September. At 23:50 GMT Japan will report on changes in the monetary base in September.

EUR/USD

Offers $1.3700, $1.3650, $1.3620, $1.3600

Bids $1.3500, $1.3475/70, $1.3455/50

GBP/USD

Offers $1.6320, $1.6300, $1.6280, $1.6270

Bids $1.6200, $1.6150, $1.6120, $1.6100

AUD/USD

Offers $0.9550, $0.9500, $0.9480, $0.9450

Bids $0.9350, $0.9320, $0.9300, $0.9280

EUR/JPY

Offers Y134.00, Y133.80, Y133.45/50, Y133.20/25

Bids Y132.00, Y131.60, Y131.50, Y131.00

USD/JPY

Offers Y99.00, Y98.80, Y98.45/50, Y98.20

Bids Y97.50, Y97.40, Y97.00

EUR/GBP

Offers stg0.8460/65, stg0.8450, stg0.8420, stg0.8390/00

Bids stg0.8320, stg0.8300, stg0.8280, stg0.8250, stg0.8200

EUR/USD $1.3425, $1.3450, $1.3460, $1.3550, $1.3570, $1.3575, $1.3580, $1.3600

GBP/USD $1.6000, $1.6130, $1.6170

USD/JPY Y997.00, Y97.50, Y97.95, Y98.00, Y98.20, Y99.00, Y99.30, Y100.00

AUD/USD $0.9160, $0.9320, $0.9400

USD/CAD Cad1.0310

GBP/JPY Y157.00

EUR/GBP stg0.8350

NZD/USD $0.8260, Z$0.8345

EUR/JPY Y131.10, Y133.50

AUD/JPY Y93.10

EUR/CHF Chf1.2245

00:00 China Bank holiday

01:00 China Manufacturing PMI September 51.0 51.6 51.1

01:30 Australia Retail sales (MoM) August +0.1% +0.3% +0.4%

01:30 Australia Retail Sales Y/Y August +2.0% Revised From +1.9% +2.3%

01:30 Japan Labor Cash Earnings, YoY August +0.1% Revised From +0.4% -0.2% -0.6%

04:30 Australia Announcement of the RBA decision on the discount rate 2.50% 2.50% 2.50%

04:30 Australia RBA Rate Statement

The dollar fell to the lowest since Jan. 3 versus the pound as the U.S. government sped toward a partial shutdown with no sign of a last-minute deal on funding. The Senate voted 54-46 to reject the House’s third version of a short-term extension of government funding that delays the 2010 Affordable Care Act, putting pressure back on House Speaker John Boehner and the Republicans. Barring a last-minute compromise or concession, the U.S. appears headed for its first shutdown in 17 years. The decision will come during trading hours in Asia today.

The U.S. currency dropped against most major peers last month as the wrangling between Senate Democrats and House Republicans threatened to stunt growth at a time when the central bank is weighing a tapering of stimulus.

The yen slid after a report showed confidence among Japan’s large manufacturers rose to the highest since the early stages of the global credit crisis in 2007, with Prime Minister Abe due to decide today whether the economy is strong enough to sustain a planned sales-tax rise next year. The quarterly Tankan index for big manufacturers climbed to 12 in September from 4 in June, the BOJ said today. That exceeded the 7 median estimate of economists surveyed by Bloomberg News.

EUR / USD: during the Asian session the pair rose to $ 1.3550

GBP / USD: during the Asian session, the pair rose to $ 1.6245

USD / JPY: during the Asian session the pair traded in the range of Y98.00-75

There is a full data calendar on both sides of the Atlantic Tuesday, although the release of official US government data is likely to be delayed as the partial government shutdown kicked in at midnight DC time. The European calendar starts at 0600GMT, when the German August ILO data is released. At 0700GMT, French September car registration data will cross the wires. Possibly the main releases of the morning session include the euro area final manufacturing PMI data. The first release comes at 0713GMT when Spanish data crosses, followed by Italy at 0743GMT, France at 0748GMT, Germany at 0753GMT and the consolidated euro area data at 0758GMT. Also due at 0755GMT are the official German unemployment numbers. At 0800GMT, the German August VDMA machinery orders data will cross the wires. German Bundesbank Board member Andreas Dombret will speak on the "Holistic Approaches to Solve the Euro Crisis" during Global Economic Symposium 2013, in Kiel, Germany, at 0845GMT. The last scheduled Euro area data is expected at 0900GMT, when the August unemployment data will cross the wires.

(pare/closed(00:00 GMT +02:00)/change, %)

EUR/USD $1,3521 +0,26%

GBP/USD $1,6184 +0,91%

USD/CHF Chf0,9048 -0,60%

USD/JPY Y98,23 -0,75%

EUR/JPY Y132,83 -0,49%

GBP/JPY Y158,98 +0,17%

AUD/USD $0,9323 -0,43%

NZD/USD $0,8299 +0,13%

USD/CAD C$1,0315 +0,04%

00:00 China Bank holiday

01:00 China Manufacturing PMI September 51.0 51.6 51.1

01:30 Australia Retail sales (MoM) August +0.1% +0.3% +0.4%

01:30 Australia Retail Sales Y/Y August +2.0% Revised From +1.9% +2.3%

01:30 Japan Labor Cash Earnings, YoY August +0.1% Revised From +0.4% -0.2% -0.6%

04:30 Australia Announcement of the RBA decision on the discount rate 2.50% 2.50%

04:30 Australia RBA Rate Statement

06:30 Australia RBA Commodity prices, y/y September -7.3%

07:30 Switzerland Manufacturing PMI September 54.6 54.9

07:48 France Manufacturing PMI (Finally) September 49.5 49.5

07:53 Germany Manufacturing PMI (Finally) September 51.3 51.3

07:55 Germany Unemployment Change September 7 -5

07:55 Germany Unemployment Rate s.a. September 6.8% 6.8%

07:58 Eurozone Manufacturing PMI (Finally) September 51.1 51.1

08:10 United Kingdom MPC Member Tucker Speaks

08:30 United Kingdom Purchasing Manager Index Manufacturing September 57.2 57.5

09:00 Eurozone Unemployment Rate August 12.1% 12.1%

09:00 Japan Prime Minister Shinzo Abe Speaks

13:00 U.S. Manufacturing PMI (Finally) September 52.8 52.8

14:00 U.S. Construction Spending, m/m August +0.6% +0.5%

14:00 U.S. ISM Manufacturing September 55.7 55.3

15:55 Canada Gov Council Member Macklem Speaks

20:30 U.S. API Crude Oil Inventories September -0.1

20:50 Japan Monetary Base, y/y September 42.0% 45.3%