Novosti i prognoe: devizno tržište od 03-10-2013

EUR/USD $1.3475, $1.3500, $1.3530, $1.3550, $1.3600, $1.3660

GBP/USD $1.6170, $1.6175, $1.6200, $1.6350

USD/JPY Y97.25, Y97.50, Y98.20, Y98.25, Y98.80, Y99.00, Y99.10, Y99.15, Y99.25, Y99.50, Y99.70, Y100.00

AUD/USD $0.9280, $0.9350, $0.9365, $0.9400, $0.9450, $0.9465

EUR/CHF Chf1.2225, Chf1.2280, Chf1.2300

EUR/GBP stg0.8290, stg0.8350

EUR/AUD A$1.4490

Data

00:00 China Bank holiday

01:00 China Non-Manufacturing PMI September 53.9 55.4

06:00 Germany Bank holiday

07:00 United Kingdom Halifax house price index September +0.4% +0.6% +0.3%

07:00 United Kingdom Halifax house price index 3m Y/Y September +5.4% +6.2%

07:48 France Services PMI (Finally) September 50.7 50.7 50.5

07:53 Germany Services PMI (Finally) September 54.4 54.4 53.7

07:58 Eurozone Services PMI (Finally) September 52.1 52.1 52.2

08:30 United Kingdom Purchasing Manager Index Services September 60.5 60.4 60.3

09:00 Eurozone Retail Sales (YoY) August -0.7% Revised From -1.3% -1.5% -0.3%

09:00 Eurozone Retail Sales (MoM) August +0.5% Revised From +0.1% +0.3% +0.7%

The euro rose to eight-month high against the dollar , where it continues to trade in a consolidation mode . Note that this dynamics associated with discussions on the extension of stopping the U.S. government. This fact will lead to slower economic growth in the country and can serve as a signal for a possible expansion of quantitative easing program , which will undoubtedly have a negative impact on the U.S. currency . Yesterday, after a meeting of congressional leaders with President Barack Obama, House Speaker John Boehner said that the progress in the negotiations to address the financial impasse has been reached . U.S. lawmakers also need to negotiate with the White House to raise the debt limit . Otherwise, the 17 October, the U.S. will default .

Earlier in the European session the pair hardly reacted to the positive data on the services PMI eurozone and the strong performance in retail sales in the region.

Add that to the course of trade is also affected by expectations of American publishing data on the number of applications for unemployment benefits . It is expected that this indicator will rise to the level of 315 thousand to 305 thousand additional impact on the dollar can have today's publication of data on the manufacturing index from the Institute for Supply Management (ISM). According to the median forecast of economists , the index for September is likely to fall to 57 from 58.6 a month earlier. Recall that the value is above the 50 level punknogo points to economic growth.

The pound fell against the dollar , dropping at the same session to a minimum , due to the expectations of the publication of data on the U.S..

Note that a significant , though not long support the pound had data on activity in the service sector. As it became known , the activity in a key sector of the British economy - the service sector - in September remained near record highs , although it declined to 60.3 from 60.5 in August. Economists expected a decline to 60.4 . Readings above 50.0 indicates expanding activity , while below 50 - the reduction .

The data also showed that the index of activity in all sectors of the economy grew in the 3rd quarter to a 15- year high , which gives reason to expect GDP growth for the quarter of 1.2% , which would be the highest since the start of the global financial crisis.

" Services reported continued growth in September - said Markit chief economist Chris Williamson . - There are encouraging signs that in the coming months will show strong growth . In September was marked by record high increase in new orders. Business confidence about the prospects increased . " . After GDP growth in the first two quarters , we should expect increases in the 3rd quarter .

EUR / USD: during the European session, the pair rose to $ 1.3615

GBP / USD: during the European session, the pair fell to $ 1.6181

USD / JPY: during the European session, the pair rose to Y97.88, then fell to Y97.65

At 12:30 GMT the U.S. will report on changes in initial claims for unemployment insurance . At 14:00 GMT the U.S. will release the ISM composite index of non-manufacturing activity in September , and will report on changes in the volume of industrial orders in August.

EUR/USD

Offers $1.3720, $1.3700, $1.3660/80, $1.3650

Bids  $1.3580, $1.3550, $1.3520, $1.3500

GBP/USD

Offers $1.6320, $1.6300, $1.6280, $1.6270, $1.6250

Bids $1.6185/80, $1.6150, $1.6120, $1.6100

AUD/USD

Offers $0.9500, $0.9480, $0.9457, $0.9450, $0.9425/30

Bids $0.9350, $0.9320, $0.9300, $0.9280, $0.9250

EUR/JPY

Offers Y134.50, Y134.20, Y134.00, Y133.80, Y133.45/50

Bids Y132.50, Y132.20, Y132.00, Y131.50

USD/JPY

Offers Y98.80, Y98.45/50, Y98.20, Y98.06/07

Bids Y97.40, Y97.00, Y96.55/50, Y96.20, Y96.00

EUR/GBP

Offers stg0.8500, stg0.8480, stg0.8450, stg0.8420

Bids stg0.8350, stg0.8335/30, stg0.8320, stg0.8300, stg0.8280

EUR/USD $1.3475, $1.3500, $1.3530, $1.3550, $1.3600, $1.3660

GBP/USD $1.6170, $1.6175, $1.6200, $1.6350

USD/JPY Y97.25, Y97.50, Y98.20, Y98.25, Y98.80, Y99.00, Y99.10, Y99.15, Y99.25, Y99.50, Y99.70, Y100.00

AUD/USD $0.9280, $0.9350, $0.9365, $0.9400, $0.9450, $0.9465

EUR/CHF Chf1.2225, Chf1.2280, Chf1.2300

EUR/GBP stg0.8290, stg0.8350

EUR/AUD A$1.4490

00:00 China Bank holiday

01:00 China Non-Manufacturing PMI September 53.9 55.4

The dollar slid to an eight-month low versus the euro as the U.S. government’s partial shutdown continued, adding to concern it will slow economic growth and postpone a tapering of monetary stimulus. The Bloomberg U.S. Dollar Index fell to the lowest in two weeks as House Speaker John Boehner signaled a lack of progress on resolving the fiscal impasse after congressional leaders met President Barack Obama. U.S. lawmakers still need to agree on raising the debt limit to avoid a default after Oct. 17.

The Institute for Supply Management’s non-manufacturing index fell to 57 in September from 58.6 a month earlier, the Tempe, Arizona-based group’s report may show, according to the median estimate in a separate poll. Readings greater than 50 indicate growth.

The U.S. Labor department won’t release its monthly payrolls report tomorrow if the government remains closed, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Euro demand was bolstered before a report forecast to show retail sales in the currency bloc rose in August. Euro-area retail sales rose 0.2 percent in August following a 0.1 percent gain in the previous month, economists predicted before the data due today.

The yen retreated as Asian stocks rallied.

EUR / USD: during the Asian session the pair rose to $ 1.3625

GBP / USD: during the Asian session, the pair traded in the range of $1.6220-40

USD / JPY: during the Asian session the pair rose to Y97.80

There is a full calendar on both sides of the Atlantic Thursday, although some US data could be delayed due to the shutdown. Additionally, German markets are closed for the reunification holiday. The European data calendar kicks off at 0713GMT, with the release of the Spanish September final services PMI data. Italian services data comes at 0743GMT, French data at 0748GMT and German numbers at 0753GMT. Consolidated euro area services PMI will be released at 0758GMT. At 0900GMT, further Euro area data is expected, when the August retail sales numbers cross the wires. Back in Europe, late data sees the release of French October Insee economic outlook. There is limited UK data set for release, but the September CIPS/Markit Services PMI numbers will cross the wire and are likely to underline the nascent UK recovery.

(pare/closed(00:00 GMT +02:00)/change, %)

EUR/USD $1,3581 +0,42%

GBP/USD $1,6228 +0,23%

USD/CHF Chf0,9025 -0,37%

USD/JPY Y97,38 -0,66%

EUR/JPY Y132,27 -0,23%

GBP/JPY Y158,04 -0,42%

AUD/USD $0,9385 -0,11%

NZD/USD $0,8313 +0,51%

USD/CAD C$1,0333 0,00%

00:00 China Bank holiday

01:00 China Non-Manufacturing PMI September 53.9 55.4

06:00 Germany Bank holiday

07:00 United Kingdom Halifax house price index September +0.4% +0.6%

07:00 United Kingdom Halifax house price index 3m Y/Y September +5.4%

07:48 France Services PMI (Finally) September 50.7 50.7

07:53 Germany Services PMI (Finally) September 54.4 54.4

07:58 Eurozone Services PMI (Finally) September 52.1 52.1

08:30 United Kingdom Purchasing Manager Index Services September 60.5 60.4

09:00 Eurozone Producer Price Index, MoM August +0.3% +0.1%

09:00 Eurozone Producer Price Index (YoY) August +0.2% -0.5%

09:00 Eurozone Retail Sales (YoY) August -1.3% -1.5%

09:00 Eurozone Retail Sales (MoM) August +0.1% +0.3%

12:30 U.S. Initial Jobless Claims September 305 315

14:00 U.S. ISM Manufacturing September 58.6 57.2

14:00 U.S. Factory Orders August -2.4% +0.2%

17:30 U.S. FOMC Member Jerome Powell Speaks