Novosti i prognoe: devizno tržište od 08-10-2013

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08.10.2013

18:20

American focus: the value of the Canadian dollar has fallen significantly against the U.S. dollar

The pound showed mixed performance against the dollar, which was reflected in a sharp decline , and in the same unexpected increase . Note that these fluctuations were associated with questionable headlines about running LTRO Bank of England and political chaos in the United States in the absence of news about the duration , " shatdauna " and the debt ceiling.

GBP / USD pair dropped to a low of $ 1.6019 on the headlines that the Bank of England will launch something like the program LTRO, which eventually proved the misinterpretation of ordinary repo transactions . The pair then retreated above 1.6100 and peaked at 1.6123 , then lost on points known from Washington , where Republicans and Democrats are " playing with fire " is the eighth day after stopping the operation of the government.

The yen traded weaker against most major currencies on speculation that U.S. lawmakers will reach an agreement to raise the debt ceiling and avoid a default of the country , which led to a decrease in demand for refuge assets .

Note that the dynamics of trading also reflected today's data , which showed that by the end of August in Japan 's current account surplus fell much more than expected compared to the same period a year earlier , as the country's huge trade deficit outweighed the return on investment abroad.

According to the report , without seasonal adjustment, the surplus in the current account - the total of Japan's trade with the rest of the world fell by 63.7 % year on year, reaching at the same level of ¥ 161,500 billion ($ 1,670 million). Note that according to the average estimate of economists value of this indicator was only reduced to the level of ¥ 540 billion

The Ministry of Finance also reported that a significant reduction in the current account balance was a surprise because of the sudden fall in the surplus in the income balance , which fell by 10% year on year, while dropping to ¥ 1,25 bln. , Which was associated with a decrease income from direct investment. We add that this was the first time in nine months, when the surplus in the income balance has decreased on an annual basis .

Franc rose against the euro , after the head of the Swiss National Bank Thomas Jordan said that the policy to curb the growth of the Swiss franc against the euro , introduced two years ago to avoid the dangers of deflation and recession, was the correct measure to ensure price stability in the foreseeable future. Recall that the restriction of the pair EUR / CHF at 1.20 was introduced September 11, 2011 to deal with the growth of the franc , which could undermine the competitiveness of the Swiss economy, which is the eurozone 's main export market .

Jordan also added that "the risks to the global economy are still downward , and the Swiss franc is still high, and therefore the SNB maintains a minimum exchange rate ."

Minimum protection has been a major element of the SNB's monetary policy for more than two years , and last month, Jordan reiterated that this minimum rate is " a necessary measure to limit the risk ."

However, "given that short-term interest rates are near zero , the minimum rate can prevent unwanted tightening of financial conditions in the event that the pressure on the franc strengthened again " - believes Jordan .

The Canadian dollar declined significantly against its U.S. counterpart , which was associated with the release of disappointing data on Canada. At Statistics Canada reported that by the end of August trade deficit increased slightly , despite the forecasts of experts at a marked decline .

According to the report , Canada's merchandise exports in August rose by 2.1 % to 39.8 billion , and imports rose by 1.8 % to 41.1 billion , resulting in a trade deficit rose to 1.3 billion U.S. , compared to $ 1.2 billion in July.

Meanwhile, the Statistical Office reported that imports rose mainly due to energy raw materials , aircraft and other transportation equipment , and machinery. Note that the volume of imports increased by 1.2 %, while prices rose by 0.9 %. With regard to exports , its volume increased by 1.4 %, while prices rose by 0.4 %. The main contribution to growth was observed with the energy of raw materials, metallic and non-metallic mineral resources.

In addition , the data showed that exports to the U.S. grew by 1.9 % to 30.1 billion dollars , registering the highest level since December 2011 . Imports from the U.S. rose 0.1 % to $ 26.1 billion . Thus, the trade surplus with the U.S. increased from $ 3.4 billion in July to 4.0 billion in August.

13:45

Option expiries for today's 1400GMT cut

EUR/USD $1.3500, $1.3600, $1.3630, $1.3650

GBP/USD $1.6245, $1.6300, $1.6350

USD/JPY Y96.00, Y96.90, Y97.25, Y97.70, Y98.00, Y98.05, Y98.10, Y98.50

AUD/USD $0.9385, $0.9400, $0.9430

EUR/NOK Nok8.0100

USD/CHF Chf0.9100, Chf0.9130

AUD/JPY Y0.9095

USD/CAD C$1.0455

EUR/CHF Chf1.2300

12:30

Canada: Trade balance, billions, August -1.3 (forecast -0.7)

12:18

Canada: Housing Starts, September 194 (forecast 175)

11:47

Orders

EUR/USD

Offers $1.3650, $1.3620, $1.3600

Bids $1.3550, $1.3520, $1.3500, $1.3455/50, $1.3420

GBP/USD

Offers $1.6200, $1.6175/80, $1.6145/50, $1.6120, $1.6100

Bids $1.6000, $1.5980, $1.5950

AUD/USD

Offers $0.9550, $0.9500, $0.9480

Bids $0.9400, $0.9380, $0.9350, $0.9320

EUR/JPY

Offers Y132.80, Y132.50, Y132.20, Y132.00

Bids Y131.00, Y130.50, Y130.20

USD/JPY

Offers Y98.20, Y97.90/00, Y97.80, Y97.50

Bids Y96.55/50, Y96.20, Y96.00, Y95.80

EUR/GBP

Offers stg0.8550, stg0.8500, stg0.8480

Bids stg0.8420, stg0.8400, stg0.8380, stg0.8350

10:02

Germany: Factory Orders n.s.a. (YoY), August +0.1% (forecast +3.9%)

10:00

Germany: Factory Orders s.a. (MoM), August -0.3% (forecast +1.2%)

09:26