Novosti i prognoe: devizno tržište od 09-10-2013

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09.10.2013

17:55

American focus : the pound has fallen significantly against the U.S. dollar

The dollar rose significantly against the euro, the most likely cause of what may be called expectations regarding publication of the minutes of the last meeting of the Committee on the open market. As we all remember , the last meeting of the Committee took an unexpected decision not to reduce the size of the program QE. The current protocol is to better understand the distribution of forces in the Committee , thereby giving more guidance on further Fed action .

It should be noted that the recent failed attempts to make a sustained break above 1.3600 provoked the current correction, which can be accelerated in the event of a friendly tone of the Fed.

Meanwhile, we add that , despite the recent rebound in risk appetite due to Obama's intention to nominate Janet Yellen as the new Fed chairman after the departure Bernanke , the market's attention once again shifted to the ongoing crisis in the Congress , where both parties refuse to compromise .

The news of Yellen was not unexpected , since it has become a prime candidate . However, confirmation that Yellen nominated for the post of head of the Central Bank, will point to the absence of risk of aggressive policy tightening .

But , as expected , the effect of the news of the Yellen gradually fades away , and the players' attention switched back to the situation in the U.S. government and key date coming on October 17. If Congress does not take a bill to raise the debt ceiling, it is unable to service its debt .

Despite rumors of negotiations between Republicans and Democrats , in fact, the situation remains deadlocked and does not receive development.

The pound has fallen against the U.S. dollar, which was triggered by the release of weak data from Britain.

As it became known , the industrial production in the UK unexpectedly fell in August to the lowest in almost a year , putting into question the strength of economic recovery in the third quarter.

Industrial production fell by 1.1 percent from July , when it rose 0.1 percent, the Office for National Statistics . According to the median forecast of economists rate was to increase by 0.2 percent. In the factories production declined by 1.2 percent ( the largest decline contributed to the decline of manufacturing of pharmaceutical preparations).

It should be noted that the International Monetary Fund yesterday raised its forecast for GDP growth in the UK, but today's data suggests that the industrial sector is lagging behind in development. Policy of the Bank of England is likely to keep policy unchanged , to strengthen the recovery.

Meanwhile , it was revealed that the total industrial production rose by 1.1 percent in the three months to August.

In a separate report ONS said that the trade deficit in goods fell to 9630 million pounds ( 15.5 billion U.S. dollars) from 9.94 billion pounds. Exports rose 1.1 percent, while imports fell by 0.1 per cent. The deficit with the European Union expanded.

14:30

U.S.: Crude Oil Inventories, October +6.8

14:00

United Kingdom: NIESR GDP Estimate, September +0.8%

13:51

Option expiries for today's 1400GMT cut

EUR/USD $1.3450, $1.3500, $1.3530, $1.3550, $1.3555, $1.3560, $1.3570, $1.3585, $1.3600, $1.3665, $1.3700, $1.3725

GBP/USD $1.5850, $1.5890, $1.6075, $1.6180, $1.6200

USD/JPY Y95.75, Y96.00, Y96.40, Y97.00, Y97.50, Y97.90, Y98.00, Y99.00

AUD/USD $0.9300, $0.9380, $0.9400, $0.9500

EUR/NOK Nok8.1000

NZD/USD $0.8100

EUR/GBP stg0.8300, stg0.8425

EUR/USD Y132.80, Y134.00

USD/CAD Cad1.0280

11:34

Orders

EUR/USD

Offers $1.3660/80, $1.3650, $1.3620, $1.3580, $1.3560/70

Bids $1.3510, $1.3500, $1.3455/50, $1.3420, $1.3400

GBP/USD

Offers $1.6145/50, $1.6100, $1.6035/40

Bids $1.5950, $1.5900, $1.5880

AUD/USD

Offers $0.9550, $0.9500, $0.9480/85

Bids $0.9425/20, $0.9400, $0.9380, $0.9350

EUR/JPY

Offers Y133.20, Y133.00, Y132.80, Y132.50, Y132.20

Bids Y131.20, Y131.00

USD/JPY

Offers Y98.20, Y97.90/00, Y97.80, Y97.50

Bids Y97.00, Y96.85/80, Y96.55/50, Y96.20

EUR/GBP

Offers stg0.8550, stg0.8500, stg0.8480

Bids stg0.8420, stg0.8400, stg0.8380, stg0.8350

10:01

Germany: Industrial Production (YoY), August +0.3% (forecast -1.5%)

10:00

Germany: Industrial Production s.a. (MoM), August +1.4% (forecast +1.1%)

09:24