Novosti i prognoe: devizno tržište od 03-04-2018

Output growth picked up, although this was offset by slower increases in both new orders and employment. On the price front, rates of inflation in input costs and output charges remained elevated despite easing slightly since February. The seasonally adjusted IHS Markit/CIPS Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) posted 55.1 in March, little-changed from 55.0 in February. The average reading over the opening quarter as a whole (55.1) was the weakest in a year, suggesting that the underlying pace of expansion has been generally slower since the start 2018.

Eurozone manufacturing operating conditions improved to the least marked extent in eight months during March, as the sector continued its post turn of the year slowdown. Rates of expansion eased across all of the nations covered by the latest PMI surveys and across the consumer, intermediate and investment goods industries. The final IHS Markit Eurozone Manufacturing PMI posted 56.6 in March, unchanged from the earlier flash estimate and down further from December's series-record high.

Germany's manufacturing sector continued to lose momentum in March, with output growth slowing for the third consecutive month, according to the latest PMI survey data from IHS Markit and BME. Goods producers meanwhile faced another record increase in average delivery times for inputs - the third in the past four months - in a sign of ongoing capacity constraints in supply chains.

According to Markit Economics Italy's manufacturing sector continued to expand at a marked rate during March, although relatively slower market activity and supply-side constraints restricted growth. Both output and new orders rose at weaker rates, whilst business sentiment softened to its lowest level since last summer. Nonetheless, jobs were again added at a solid pace as workloads continued to grow. On the price front, inflation rates for both input costs and output charges weakened.

Adjusted for sales days and holidays, the retail sector excluding service stations showed a 0.1% decrease in nominal turnover in February 2018 compared with February 2017 (in real terms -0.2%). Retail sales of food, drinks and tobacco registered an increase in nominal turnover of 0.8% (in real terms +1.1%), whereas the non-food sector registered a nominal negative of 1.0% (in real terms -0.7%).

Spanish manufacturers recorded a further marked improvement in business conditions at the end of the first quarter of the year. Although the rate of output growth slowed from February, it remained marked amid another sharp increase in new orders. The easing in the rate of expansion of output contributed to one of the strongest rises in backlogs of work since the series began, while supply issues were again highlighted by a marked lengthening of suppliers' delivery times.

The PMI was at 54.8 in March, down from 56.0 in February, but still pointing to a marked improvement in business conditions. Manufacturing firms registered a

• Now is not time to debate when and how to slow BoJ's ETF buying

• Inflation likely to remain low for some time

• Stronger economy should see some lift in wage growth over time

• Further gradual reduction in unemployment expected

• One continuing source of uncertainty is outlook for household consumption

EUR/USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.2428 (5509)

$1.2402 (1474)

$1.2368 (1336)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.2315

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.2283 (5434)

$1.2242 (3652)

$1.2196 (4455)

Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options and PUT options with the expiration date April, 6 is 108207 contracts (according to data from April, 2) with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,2150 (6531);

GBP/USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.4178 (2338)

$1.4147 (1898)

$1.4108 (2493)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.4062

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.4011 (1090)

$1.3977 (1186)

$1.3937 (1215)

Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options with the expiration date April, 6 is 30402 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,4200 (2842);

- Overall open interest on the PUT options with the expiration date April, 6 is 33838 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,3800 (3570);

- The ratio of PUT/CALL was 1.11 versus 1.10 from the previous trading day according to data from April, 2

* - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange bulletin (CME) is used for the calculation.

** - Open interest takes into account the total number of option contracts that are open at the moment.

• Low rates supporting economy

• Forward-looking indicators point to solid employment growth

• Rising A$ would lead to slower economic pick up

• A$ remains in range of past couple of years

• Housing markets have slowed in Sydney, Melbourne

According to provisional data turnover in retail trade in February 2018 was in real terms 1.3% and in nominal terms 2.5% larger than in February 2017. The number of days open for sale was 24 in February 2018 and in February 2017.

When adjusted for calendar and seasonal variations (Census-X-12-ARIMA), the February turnover was in real terms and in nominal terms 0.7% smaller than that in January 2018.