Novosti i prognoe: devizno tržište od 04-04-2018

The report was issued today by Anthony Nieves, Chair of the Institute for Supply Management (ISM):

"The NMI registered 58.8 percent, which is 0.7 percentage point lower than the February reading of 59.5 percent. This represents continued growth in the non-manufacturing sector at a slightly slower rate. The Non-Manufacturing Business Activity Index decreased to 60.6 percent, 2.2 percentage points lower than the February reading of 62.8 percent, reflecting growth for the 104th consecutive month, at a slower rate in March. The New Orders Index registered 59.5 percent, 5.3 percentage points lower than the reading of 64.8 percent in February. The Employment Index increased 1.6 percentage points in March to 56.6 percent from the February reading of 55 percent".

New orders for manufactured durable goods in February increased $7.4 billion or 3.1 percent to $247.7 billion, the U.S. Census Bureau announced today. This increase, up three of the last four months, followed a 3.5 percent January decrease. Excluding transportation, new orders increased 1.2 percent. Excluding defense, new orders increased 2.5 percent. Transportation equipment, also up three of the last four months, led the increase, $5.5 billion or 7.1 percent to $83.5 billion.

Shipments of manufactured durable goods in February, up nine of the last ten months, increased $2.2 billion or 0.9 percent to $249.7 billion. This followed a 0.5 percent January increase. Machinery, up six of the last seven months, led the increase, $0.6 billion or 1.8 percent to $33.4 billion.

• U.S. GDP growth looks uncertain for q1

• Inflation remains low but is expected to move somewhat higher during 2018

• Yield curve inversion later this year remains a possibility

Private sector employment increased by 241,000 jobs from February to March according to the March ADP National Employment Report.

"We saw impressive momentum in the first quarter of 2018 with more jobs added per month on average than in 2017," said Ahu Yildirmaz, vice president and co-head of the ADP Research Institute. "Midsized businesses added nearly half of all jobs this month, the best growth this segment has seen since the fall of 2014. The manufacturing industry also performed well, with its strongest increase in more than three years." Mark Zandi, chief economist of Moody's Analytics, said, "The job market is rip-roaring. Monthly job growth remains firmly over 200,000, double the pace of labor force growth. The tight labor market continues to tighten."

We are not in a trade war with China, that war was lost many years ago by the foolish, or incompetent, people who represented the U.S. Now we have a Trade Deficit of $500 Billion a year, with Intellectual Property Theft of another $300 Billion. We cannot let this continue! @realDonaldTrump

The euro area (EA19) seasonally-adjusted unemployment rate was 8.5% in February 2018, down from 8.6% in January 2018 and from 9.5% in February 2017. This is the lowest rate recorded in the euro area since December 2008. The EU28 unemployment rate was 7.1% in February 2018, down from 7.2% in January 2018 and from 8.0% in February 2017. This is the lowest rate recorded in the EU28 since September 2008. These figures are published by Eurostat, the statistical office of the European Union.

Eurostat estimates that 17.632 million men and women in the EU28, of whom 13.916 million in the euro area, were unemployed in February 2018. Compared with January 2018, the number of persons unemployed decreased by 201 000 in the EU28 and by 141 000 in the euro area. Compared with February 2017, unemployment fell by 1.968 million in the EU28 and by 1.436 million in the euro area.

Euro area annual inflation is expected to be 1.4% in March 2018, up from 1.1% in February, according to a flash estimate from Eurostat, the statistical office of the European Union. Looking at the main components of euro area inflation, food, alcohol & tobacco is expected to have the highest annual rate in March (2.2%, compared with 1.0% in February), followed by energy (2.0%, compared with 2.1% in February), services (1.5%, compared with 1.3% in February) and non-energy industrial goods (0.2%, compared with 0.6% in February).

In February 2018, 23.055 million persons were employed, +0.1% over January 2018. Unemployed were 2.835 million, -1.7% over the previous month.

Employment rate was 58.0%, unchanged over the previous month, unemployment rate was 10.9%, -0.2 percentage points over January 2018 and inactivity rate was 34.7%, +0.1 percentage points in a month. Youth unemployment rate (aged 15-24) was 32.8%, +0.3 percentage points over the previous month and youth unemployment ratio in the same age group was 8.6%, unchanged over January 2018.

• Include other products such as whisky, cigars, some types of beef

• Include corn, other agricultural products

EUR/USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.2380 (2198)

$1.2357 (3752)

$1.2335 (1335)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.2271

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.2240 (3635)

$1.2195 (4416)

$1.2148 (6543)

Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options and PUT options with the expiration date April, 6 is 110356 contracts (according to data from April, 3) with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,2150 (6543);

GBP/USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.4174 (2340)

$1.4144 (1853)

$1.4112 (2488)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.4069

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.4025 (1052)

$1.3987 (1184)

$1.3943 (1239)

Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options with the expiration date April, 6 is 30094 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,4200 (2852);

- Overall open interest on the PUT options with the expiration date April, 6 is 34341 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,3800 (3570);

- The ratio of PUT/CALL was 1.14 versus 1.11 from the previous trading day according to data from April, 3

* - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange bulletin (CME) is used for the calculation.

** - Open interest takes into account the total number of option contracts that are open at the moment.

• The trend estimate rose 0.4% in February 2018. This follows a rise of 0.3% in January 2018 and a rise of 0.3% in December 2017.

• The seasonally adjusted estimate rose 0.6% in February 2018. This follows a rise of 0.2% in January 2018 and a fall of 0.5% in December 2017.

• In trend terms, Australian turnover rose 2.7% in February 2018 compared with February 2017.

• The following industries rose in trend terms in February 2018: Food retailing (0.3%), Household goods retailing (0.6%), Other retailing (0.4%), Cafes, restaurants and takeaway food services (0.4%), and Clothing, footwear and personal accessory retailing (0.4%). Department stores (-0.2%) fell in trend terms in February 2018.

• Risks to U.S. financial system 'moderate' though Fed monitoring effects of fiscal stimulus

• May need to raise banks capital buffer if cyclical pressures build, vulnerabilities grow

• Financial asset valuations stretched, cyclical pressures building

• Chamber of Commerce for machinery and electronics says U.S. investigation has no factual basis, supports Beijing's measures on U.S. products

The Caixin China Composite PMI data (which covers both manufacturing and services) indicated that total Chinese business activity expanded at the slowest pace for four months at the end of the first quarter. Notably, the Composite Output Index fell from 53.3 in February to 51.8 in March, to signal only a modest pace of expansion. The dip in the headline index was driven by weaker increases in output across both the manufacturing and service sectors during March. Furthermore, rates of growth slipped to four-month lows in both sectors.

At 52.3 in March, the seasonally adjusted Caixin China General Services Business Activity Index fell further from January's multi-year peak, having slipped from 54.2 in February.