Novosti i prognoe: devizno tržište od 07-01-2019

The ISM registered 60.7 percent, which is 0.4 percentage point higher than the October reading of 60.3 percent. This represents continued growth in the non-manufacturing sector, at a slightly faster rate. The Non-Manufacturing Business Activity Index increased to 65.2 percent, 2.7 percentage points higher than the October reading of 62.5 percent, reflecting growth for the 112th consecutive month, at a faster rate in November.

In November 2018 compared with October 2018, the seasonally adjusted volume of retail trade increased by 0.6% in the euro area (EA19) and by 0.7% in the EU28, according to estimates from Eurostat. In October, the retail trade volume increased by 0.6% in the euro area and by 0.4% in the EU28. In November 2018 compared with November 2017, the calendar adjusted retail sales index increased by 1.1% in the euro area and by 2.1% in the EU28.

Among Member States for which data are available, the largest increases in the total retail trade volume were registered in Latvia (+2.4%), Poland and Estonia (both +2.1%). Decreases were observed in Slovenia (-1.6%) and Austria (-0.5%).

• Don't Believe Balance Sheet Adjustment is Big Factor in Recent Market Turbulence

• Says He Has Received No Direct Communication From White House About Job Performance

• Meetings Between Presidents And Fed Chairs "Do Happen," Nothing Scheduled At Present

• Says He Would Not Resign If President Asked Him To

• People Should Know The Fed Has Strong Culture Around Non-Political Activity

• Best Thing Fed Can do is be Transparent, Predictable as Possible

• Always Prepared to Shift Stance of Policy, 'Significantly' If Necessary

• Muted Inflation Readings Mean We Will Be Patient As Economy Evolves

• We Will Be Prepared to Adjust Policy Quickly, Flexibly

• Good Data Still Is Story Looking Into Rear View Mirror

• Markets Are Pricing In Downside Risks

• Markets Are Well Ahead of the Data, Expressing Concerns About Global Growth, Trade Tensions

• Balance Sheet Adjustment Supposed to be as Interesting as Watching Paint Dry

• Wages Moving Up 'Is Quite Welcome'

• Higher Wage Growth Does Not Raise Concerns About Inflation

• Consumer Spending Has Been Strong Right Through December

• ISM Report Came In Well Below Expectations

• ISM Survey Had Been At Historically High Levels

• ISM Now At Level Consistent With Ongoing Moderate Growth

• Fact That ISM Survey Moved Down So Much In One Month Worth Keeping Eye On

• US Data Seem To Be On Track To Sustain Good Momentum Into New Year

• Wind Down Mechanical by Design to Avoid Creating Uncertainty

• Steady Nature of Reductions Keeps Policy Focus on Fed Funds Rate

• Policy Path Not 'Set in Stone', Can Be Adjusted For Unexpected

• Acknowledges Recent Discussion of Balance Sheet Policy; Doesn't Mention Trump Administration

Situation and expectations fall slightly once again.

What is worrying about the current loss of momentum is the policy's unwillingness to react, which is obviously unaware of the possible implications. Investors do not expect a quick reaction from the central banks either.

The US President, too, is becoming increasingly entangled in a secondary war theatre, and the US shutdown is strengthening the downward momentum in the USA as well. The US overall index falls for the third time to only 6.6 points. Eastern Europe and, above all, Latin America are viewed somewhat more positively.

Based on provisional data, the Federal Statistical Office (Destatis) reports that price-adjusted new orders in manufacturing had decreased in November 2018 a seasonally and calendar adjusted 1.0% on the previous month. For October 2018, revision of the preliminary outcome resulted in an increase of 0.2% compared with September 2018 (primary +0.3%). Price-adjusted new orders without major orders in manufacturing had decreased in November 2018 a seasonally and calendar adjusted 0.8% on the previous month.

Domestic orders increased by 2.4% and foreign orders decreased by 3.2% in November 2018 on the previous month. New orders from the euro area were down 11.6%, new orders from other countries increased 2.3% compared to October 2018.

In November 2018 the manufacturers of intermediate goods saw new orders fall by 4.4% compared with October 2018. The manufacturers of capital goods showed increases of 1.4% on the previous month. For consumer goods, a decrease in new orders of 3.2% was recorded.

According to estimates of the Federal Statistical Office (Destatis), retail turnover 2018 in Germany is expected to be between 1.4% and 1.5% higher in real terms than in 2017. In nominal terms turnover growth is expected between 3.1% and 3.3%. This estimation is based on data for the first eleven months of 2018. According to provisional data, turnover in retail trade in November 2018 increased 1.1% in real terms and 2.9% in nominal terms from November 2017. The number of days open for sale was 26 both in November 2018 and November 2017.

EUR/USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.1534 (419)

$1.1515 (375)

$1.1502 (528)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.1423

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.1333 (2624)

$1.1301 (7404)

$1.1264 (2952)

Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options and PUT options with the expiration date February, 8 is 59546 contracts (according to data from January, 4) with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,1350 (7404);

GBP/USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.2888 (261)

$1.2874 (116)

$1.2850 (35)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.2748

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.2641 (319)

$1.2595 (633)

$1.2541 (793)

Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options with the expiration date February, 8 is 18186 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,3200 (1654);

- Overall open interest on the PUT options with the expiration date February, 8 is 20823 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,2600 (1900);

- The ratio of PUT/CALL was 1.15 versus 1.15 from the previous trading day according to data from January, 4

* - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange bulletin (CME) is used for the calculation.

** - Open interest takes into account the total number of option contracts that are open at the moment.