Novosti i prognoe: devizno tržište od 10-01-2019

• 'Situation Remained Fragile, Fluid; New Uncertainties Could Emerge'

New home builders in 18 of the 27 census metropolitan areas (CMAs) reported flat or decreasing prices in November.

The largest declines were in Regina (-0.6%) and St. John's (-0.4%), with decreases in both CMAs linked to unfavourable market conditions.

Prices in Regina and St. John's have been down or flat for 10 out of 11 months in 2018. According to the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation, the inventory of newly completed and unsold single-family dwellings was up in both CMAs in November compared with the same month a year earlier. Single-family dwellings include row, single and semi-detached houses.

New home prices were down in the three CMAs surveyed in British Columbia. Lower selling prices were the primary reason for the 0.3% decrease in Vancouver, while builders in Victoria and Kelowna (both down 0.1%) tied the dip in prices to promotional offers to stimulate sales.

Higher construction intentions for commercial buildings drove most of the gain.

The value of non-residential building permits rose 11.6% to $3.3 billion in November. Construction intentions rose in five provinces, with British Columbia accounting for most of the gain.

In the commercial component, the value of building permits was up 16.8% to $2.1 billion, the highest level since May 2007. The increase was led by higher construction intentions for office buildings in the census metropolitan areas (CMAs) of Vancouver and Québec.

Following three consecutive monthly declines, the value of industrial building permits rose 21.9% to $527 million in November. The increase was mainly attributable to permits for new agricultural buildings.

In the week ending January 5, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 216,000, a decrease of 17,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 2,000 from 231,000 to 233,000. The 4-week moving average was 221,750, an increase of 2,500 from the previous week's revised average. The previous week's average was revised up by 500 from 218,750 to 219,250.

• Staff Projected 4Q GDP Growth Somewhat Slower than Previous Two Quarters

• Staff Expects Net Exports Will Be Less of a Drag on GDP in Q4 Than Q3

• Staff Forecast Total, Core PCE inflation a Touch Below 2% in 2018

• Staff Lowered 2018 Inflation Forecast Slightly on Recent Energy Price Declines

• Saw 'Balanced' Risks to GDP, Unemployment Rate, Inflation Forecasts

• Financial Conditions Had Tightened Since Previous Meeting, Officials Said

• Several Officials Supported Removing Forward Guidance from Future Statements

• A Few Officials Concerned About Low Inflation Expectations

• Officials Generally Viewed Recent Price Data As Consistent With 2% Inflation Goal

• Officials Noted Contrast Between Strong Economic Data and Market Volatility

• Officials Expressed Less Certainty About 'Timing and Size' of Future Rate Increases

• Market Volatility, Global Growth Concerns Create Policy Uncertainty, Officials Said

• December Increase Brought Rates Near Lower Estimates of Neutral

• Many Officials Said Muted Inflation Allows Fed To Be Patient on Future Rate Increases

• Neither Pace nor Ultimate Endpoint of Future Rate Increases Was Known, Officials Said

• Officials Generally Judged Some Further Increases Likely Appropriate

• Officials Stressed Data-Dependent Policy Going Forward

Consumer prices in China were up just 1.9 percent on year in December, according to rttnews.

That was shy of expectations for an increase of 2.1 percent on year and down from 2.2 percent in November.

The bureau also said that producer prices were up an annual 0.9 percent - well shy of forecasts for 1.6 percent and down sharply from 2.7 percent in the previous month.

Manufacturing output went down over the last three months (−1.0%), as well as in the whole industry (−0.9%).

Over the last three months, output decreased sharply in the manufacture of transport equipment (−3.1%). It decreased in “other manufacturing” (−0.5%), in the manufacture of food products and beverages (−0.8%), in the manufacture of machinery and equipment goods (−0.7%) and in mining and quarrying, energy, water supply (−0.4%). It dimished sharply in the manufacture of coke and refined petroleum products (−3.9%).

EUR/USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.1675 (2714)

$1.1657 (2328)

$1.1633 (473)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.1547

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.1512 (252)

$1.1485 (538)

$1.1452 (1391)

Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options and PUT options with the expiration date February, 8 is 65543 contracts (according to data from January, 9) with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,1350 (8559);

GBP/USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.3001 (1181)

$1.2959 (548)

$1.2881 (44)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.2754

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.2638 (617)

$1.2610 (1504)

$1.2580 (1073)

Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options with the expiration date February, 8 is 21263 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,3000 (1853);

- Overall open interest on the PUT options with the expiration date February, 8 is 22760 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,2600 (1900);

- The ratio of PUT/CALL was 1.07 versus 1.15 from the previous trading day according to data from January, 9

* - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange bulletin (CME) is used for the calculation.

** - Open interest takes into account the total number of option contracts that are open at the moment.