Novosti i prognoe: devizno tržište od 07-03-2013

Australia posted a seasonally adjusted merchandise trade deficit of A$1.057 billion in January, the Australian Bureau of Statistics said on Thursday.

That was sharply below forecasts for a deficit of A$500 million following the downwardly revised shortfall of A$688 million in December (originally reported as A$427 million). The deficit expanded by 54 percent.

Exports were down A$185 million or 1 percent on month to A$25.023 billion from A$25.208 billion one month prior.

Non-rural goods fell A$424 million or 3 percent, while rural goods fell A$81 million or 3 percent. Non-monetary gold jumped A$211 million or 17 percent and net exports of goods under merchanting surged A$10 million or 200 percent. Services credits rose A$98 million or 2 percent.

Imports added A$185 million or 1.0 percent on month to A$26.081 billion from A$25.896 billion in the previous month.

Capital goods added A$292 million or 5 percent, while consumption goods collected A$166 million or 3 percent. Intermediate and other merchandise goods shed A$258 million or 3 percent and non-monetary gold dipped A$6 million or 2 percent. Services debits were down A$10 million.

Switzerland's unemployment rate remained unchanged at seasonally adjusted 3.1 percent in February, the State Secretariat for Economic Affairs (SECO) said Thursday. The rate matched economists' expectations.

On an unadjusted basis, the jobless rate came in at 3.4 percent, the same rate as seen in January.

The number of registered unemployed fell by 2,157 to 146,001 in February. From the previous year, unemployment increased by 12,847 or 9.6 percent.

Unemployment rate in France rose more than expected to reach its highest level in more than 13 years in the fourth quarter of 2012, data from statistical office Insee showed Thursday.

The overall unemployment rate rose to 10.6 percent in the fourth quarter from a downwardly revised 10.2 percent in the third quarter. This was the highest rate recorded since the second quarter of 1999, when the jobless rate was 10.7 percent.

Economists expected an increase in the rate to 10.5 percent. In metropolitan France alone, the jobless rate was 10.2 percent, up from 9.9 percent in the previous quarter.

The number of job seekers totaled 3.7 million in metropolitan France. The employment rate of the population aged 15-64 years increased by 0.2 percentage points from the previous quarter to 64.1 percent.

EUR/USD $1.2950, $1.3000, $1.3030, $1.3050, $1.3150

USD/JPY Y92.00, Y93.30, Y93.35, Y93.50

GBP/USD $1.5150

EUR/GBP stg0.8640, stg0.8700, stg0.8800

USD/CHF Chf0.9350

EUR/CHF 1.2250, Chf1.2280, Chf1.2320

AUD/USD $1.0140, $1.0200, $1.0250, $1.0300

USD/CAD C$1.0300

Data
00:30 Australia Trade Balance January -0.43 -0.51 -1.06
03:00 Japan BoJ Interest Rate Decision 0.10% 0.10% 0.10%
03:00 Japan BoJ Monetary Policy Statement
06:45 Switzerland Unemployment Rate February 3.1% 3.1% 3.1%
07:00 Japan BOJ Press Conference
08:00 Switzerland Foreign Currency Reserves February 427.0 427.7
09:00 Switzerland SNB Chairman Jordan Speaks February
11:00 Germany Factory Orders s.a. (MoM) January +1.1% +0.6% -1.9%
11:00 Germany Factory Orders n.s.a. (YoY) January -1.8% +1.6% -1.5%
12:00 United Kingdom BoE Interest Rate Decision 0.50% 0.50% 0.50%
12:00 United Kingdom Asset Purchase Facility 375 375 375
12:00 United Kingdom MPC Rate Statement
12:45 Eurozone ECB Interest Rate Decision 0.75% 0.75%

The euro rose sharply against the dollar, as market participants are awaiting the decision of the ECB interest rate, which remained at a record low of 0.75%. Note that this decision is in line with most economists predicted that almost does not appear on the cost of the European currency.
We also add that investors perceived favorably the strong results of auctions in Spain and France. Bonds maturing in 2015 were sold in the amount of 569 million, a return of 2.63% against 2.54% earlier. Securities maturing in 2018 are available on the amount of 2030 million, yield 3.57% vs. 4.27%. Bonds maturing in 2023 sold to the amount of 2440 million, with a yield of 4.91% vs. 5.20% previously. France placed 10-year bonds worth 7 billion euros with a yield of 2.1% vs. 2.3% previously.
Negative point was today's report from the Ministry of Economy, which showed that the volume of industrial orders in Germany unexpectedly, and at the time, were reduced significantly in January, which was due to the sharp decline in external demand, while stressing that the country's economic recovery remains fragile. According to the report, the number of orders in manufacturing decreased in January by 1.9% after rising 1.1% in December. Note that according to the average estimates of experts, the value of this index would grow by 0.6%. Ministry of Economy said that the findings suggest that the weakness in the industry has not been resolved, despite the improvement in sentiment in the set of studies that point to a positive outlook.
However, the focus of the players still press conference by ECB President Draghi, which can significantly affect the dynamics of trading.
Pound pound has appreciated significantly against the dollar, while restoring the losses suffered in early trading. Note that such a sharp increase in rates was caused by a statement from the Monetary Policy Committee, who said that the size of the program to purchase assets remained unchanged - at 375 billion pounds. Also this time it became known decision of the Bank of England's interest rate, which has remained unchanged - at the level of 0.5%.
The yen fell against the euro, even after the Bank of Japan has rejected calls for the immediate start of the open purchase of assets at the closing session Masaaki Shirakawa, before being replaced Haruhiko Kuroda. Note also that the Bank of Japan kept the asset purchase program unchanged at Y76 trillion yen ($ 809 billion), and monthly purchases of government bonds at Y1, 8000000000000, confounding expectations of economists.

EUR / USD: during the European session, the pair rose to high of $ 1.3044, and then fell to $ 1.3008

GBP / USD: during the European session, the pair went up to a maximum of $ 1.5075

USD / JPY: during the European session, the pair rose to Y93.45

EUR/USD

Offers $1.3095/1.05, $1.3040/45, $1.3044

Bids $1.2965/60, $1.2950, $1.2925/20, $1.2900, $1.2880, $1.2865-50

GBP/USD

Offers $1.5140/50, $1.5100/10, $1.5070/80, $1.5040/50

Bids $1.4965/60, $1.4950, $1.4935/30, $1.4900

AUD/USD

Offers $1.0375/80, $1.0340/50, $1.0330

Bids $1.0210/00, $1.0160/50, $1.0120/15, $1.0050, $1.0020, $1.0000

EUR/GBP

Offers stg0.8750/60, stg0.8720/25, stg0.8695/700

Bids stg0.8575/70, stg0.8555/50, stg0.8520, stg0.8505/00

EUR/JPY

Offers Y123.28, Y123.22, Y122.85

Bids Y121.60/70, Y121.40/50, Y119.41

USD/JPY

Offers Y95.10/20, Y94.95/5.00, Y94.80, Y94.30-50

Bids Y93.75/70, Y93.55/50, Y93.15/00

EUR/USD $1.2950, $1.3000, $1.3030, $1.3050, $1.3150

USD/JPY Y92.00, Y93.30, Y93.35, Y93.50

GBP/USD $1.5150

EUR/GBP stg0.8640, stg0.8700, stg0.8800

USD/CHF Chf0.9350

EUR/CHF 1.2250, Chf1.2280, Chf1.2320

AUD/USD $1.0140, $1.0200, $1.0250, $1.0300

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The Dollar Index traded at almost its highest level in six months as service industries in the U.S. expanded in February at the fastest pace in a year, adding to signs of economic acceleration.

The U.S. currency was supported after the Institute for Supply Management’s non-manufacturing index exceeded forecasts, fueling speculation the Federal Reserve may have scope to reduce monetary stimulus earlier than projected.

The Institute of Supply Management’s non-manufacturing index increased to 56 last month from 55.2 in January, the Tempe, Arizona-based group said. Economists projected the guage would be little changed at 55, according to the median estimate. Readings above 50 signal expansion.

Australia’s currency climbed versus the dollar as the central bank kept interest rates on hold. Governor Glenn Stevens said in a statement that growth in 2012 was led by “very large increases in capital spending in the resources sector,” while reiterating that the inflation outlook “would afford scope to ease policy further, should that be necessary.”

The euro exchange rate fluctuates against the dollar after data showed that business activity in the euro area services sector declined in February compared with January, adding evidence that the region's economy will continue to be liquefied in the first three months of the year, which could be the fourth quarterly drop in a row. In addition, it was reported that retail sales rose by 1.2% on a monthly basis, fully compensate for the decline of 0.8% in December, which was revised from 0.9% decline.

The pound rose against the dollar before the euro after a report showed that the UK services sector expanded in February, showing a more rapid pace than analysts had forecast that downgraded the speculation as to whether the Bank of England will increase the incentive program.

The focus of investors are the most important meeting of the European Central Bank and the Bank of England, which will be held later in the week.

00:30 Australia Trade Balance January -0.43 -0.51 -1.06

03:00 Japan BoJ Interest Rate Decision 0.10% 0.10% 0.10%

03:00 Japan BoJ Monetary Policy Statement

The Dollar Index traded 0.2 percent from the highest in more than six months as signs of improvement in U.S. labor market added to the case for the Federal Reserve to end stimulus sooner than initially planned. Figures from New Jersey-based ADP Research Institute yesterday showed an increase of 198,000 in U.S. employment last month, more than the 170,000 advance expected by economists. In the U.S., economists in a Bloomberg News survey estimate the Labor Department will say tomorrow that payrolls expanded by 163,000 in February after a 157,000 gain the prior month, while the jobless rate likely held at 7.9 percent.

The U.S. economy grew at a modest to moderate pace across most of the country amid rising consumer demand for homes and autos, the Fed said in its Beige Book business survey yesterday.

The pound dropped to the lowest since July 2010 before the Bank of England concludes a two-day meeting today. The BOE will keep its interest rate at 0.5 percent, according to economists in a separate Bloomberg poll. Poland’s central bank lowered its seven-day reference rate by 50 basis points to 3.25 percent yesterday. None of the 38 economists surveyed by Bloomberg predicted the move.

Demand for the euro was bolstered after S&P affirmed Portugal’s rating and raised its outlook to stable from negative. European lenders will probably extend support to the government and make the nation’s fiscal tightening “more sustainable,” S&P said in a statement today. The central bank will probably maintain its benchmark rate at 0.75 percent today, according to economists in a Bloomberg survey. The ECB will update its December economic forecasts.

The yen rose after the Bank of Japan refrained from expanding monetary stimulus at the conclusion of its policy meeting. The Bank of Japan today kept its asset-purchase program at 76 trillion yen ($809 billion) and its monthly government bond purchases at 1.8 trillion, in line with estimates of economists surveyed by Bloomberg.

EUR / USD: during the Asian session, the pair rose to $1.3000.

GBP / USD: during the Asian session, the pair rose to $1.5010.

USD / JPY: during the Asian session the pair fell to Y93.80.

(pare/closed(00:00 GMT +02:00)/change, %)

EUR/USD $1,2966 -0,64%

GBP/USD $1,5015 -0,73%

USD/CHF Chf0,9487 +0,84%

USD/JPY Y94,05 +0,82%

EUR/JPY Y121,96 +0,18%

GBP/JPY Y141,23 +0,11%

AUD/USD $1,0232 -0,22%

NZD/USD $0,8282 -0,33%

00:30 Australia Trade Balance January -0.43 -0.51

03:00 Japan BoJ Interest Rate Decision 0.10% 0.10%

03:00 Japan BoJ Monetary Policy Statement

06:45 Switzerland Unemployment Rate February 3.1% 3.1%

07:00 Japan BOJ Press Conference

08:00 Switzerland Foreign Currency Reserves February 427.0

09:00 Switzerland SNB Chairman Jordan Speaks February

11:00 Germany Factory Orders s.a. (MoM) January +0.8% +0.6%

11:00 Germany Factory Orders n.s.a. (YoY) January -1.8% +1.6%

12:00 United Kingdom BoE Interest Rate Decision 0.50% 0.50%

12:00 United Kingdom Asset Purchase Facility

12:00 United Kingdom MPC Rate Statement

12:45 Eurozone ECB Interest Rate Decision 0.75% 0.75%

13:30 Canada Building Permits (MoM) January -11.2% +5.4%

13:30 Canada Trade balance, billions January -0.9 -0.6

13:30 U.S. International trade, bln January -38.5 -42.8

13:30 U.S. Nonfarm Productivity, q/q (Revised) Quarter IV -2.0% -1.5%

13:30 U.S. Initial Jobless Claims 344 356

13:30 Eurozone ECB Press Conference

18:15 U.S. FOMC Member Jerome Powell Speaks

20:00 U.S. Consumer Credit January 14.6 14.4

21:30 U.S. Bank Stress Test Results

23:50 Japan Current Account (adjusted), bln January 98.1 112.2

23:50 Japan GDP, q/q (Finally) Quarter IV -0.1% -0.1%