Novosti i prognoe: devizno tržište od 07-05-2013

The euro exchange rate fell sharply against the dollar, helped by the disappointing results of the report IBD / TIPP economic optimism on. As it became known, the economic optimism index fell in May by 2.4%, to 45.1 from 46.2 in April. Values ​​above 50 indicate optimism of consumers, and below 50 - the pessimistic. The index is up 2.1 points below the average for the 12 months, which is 47.2, but 0.7 points above the level of 44.4 reached in December 2007, when the economy entered a recession. The index of economic expectations for the next six months, which reflects an assessment of the economic outlook by consumers in six months, fell by 8.5% to 43.1. The index of personal financial outlook - an indicator of the views of Americans about their personal finances for the next six months - rose by 2.1%, to 54. The index of confidence in U.S. economic policy - an indicator of opinions about how the government's economic policy - fell by 0.5% to 38.3.

The cost of the British pound fell against the U.S. dollar, which has been associated with the triggering of stop orders on the pair at 1.5520. Note that the volume of trading in the markets is quite low due to public holidays in the UK and Asia, and this reinforces the volatility.

We also add that in part influenced by the dynamics of trade data from the British Retail Consortium (BRC), which showed a monthly basis, the consumer price index fell 0.8 percent, which led to the fact that the annual rate rose by only 0.4% , compared with an increase to 1.4 percent per year in March. In addition, it was reported that non-food prices fell by 1.1% on the month and by 1.0% per year, which followed a growth of 0.2 percent per year in March. In the non-food sector, the biggest drop in prices was observed for clothing, footwear and electrical goods. Note that the cost of clothing and footwear fell by 2.5% on the month and 4.7% for the year, compared with a fall of 2.2% in March. We also learned that the price of electrical goods fell 1.2% on the month and 4.8% over the year. The British Retail Consortium also reported that personal accessories, women's and men's clothing was recorded sharp acceleration of deflation in April, while the shoe was deflation that followed the rise in prices in March. The data also showed that food inflation slowed in April to 2.9% compared with 3.5% in March. Food inflation for fresh food has declined to 3.1% from 3.6% in March.

The cost of the Australian dollar fell against the U.S. dollar, after it became known that the Reserve Bank of Australia unexpectedly cut its benchmark interest rate to a record low to support economic growth, following the example of the European Central Bank, which lowered its key interest rate by a quarter point last week . Note that the Central Bank of Australia cut the official interest rate by 25 basis points to 2.75 percent. Economists had expected the Reserve Bank decision to keep the sample rate at 3 percent.

Previously, the RBA noted that the outlook for inflation allows for rate cut if needed to support the demand.

In a statement issued after the meeting today, RBA Governor Glenn Stevens said the bank will use the reduction in key interest rates to encourage sustainable growth in the economy, in line with achieving the inflation target.

Recall that the RBA began its cycle of rate cut in November 2011, and since then it has decreased by 200 basis points.

Meanwhile, we add that today, the RBA kept its outlook on prices, saying that the level of inflation over the next one to two years will meet its goal. However, in the RBA expressed concern about the "extraordinary" power of the local currency.

EUR/USD

Offers $1.3240/50, $1.3200, $1.3180, $1.3130/50

Bids $1.3050, $1.3020/00

GBP/USD

Offers $1.5630, $1.5600/10, $1.5585, $1.5560/70

Bids $1.5520, $1.5500, $1.5480, $1.5450, $1.5430/20

AUD/USD

Offers $1.0330, $1.0280/00, $1.0230/50, $1.0220

Bids $1.0155/50, $1.0120/15, $1.0100, $1.0090/85, $1.0050, $1.0020/15

USD/JPY

Offers Y100.00, Y99.50/60

Bids Y98.85/80, Y98.50, Y98.25/20, Y98.00

EUR/JPY

Offers Y131.00, Y130.50, Y130.20, Y129.95/00, Y129.80/85

Bids Y129.25/20, Y129.00, Y128.80/70, Y128.50

EUR/GBP

Offers stg0.8545/50, stg0.8530/35, stg0.8500/10, stg0.8480/85, stg0.8450

Bids stg0.8400

EUR/USD $1.2850, $1.3050, $1.3100, $1.3150

USD/JPY Y98.50, Y99.00, Y99.50, Y9965, Y99.75

EUR/CHF Chf1.2165, Chf1.2255

01:30 Australia Trade Balance March -0.18 0.20 0.31

01:30 Australia House Price Index (QoQ) Quarter I +1.6% +1.9% +0.1%

01:30 Australia House Price Index (YoY) Quarter I +2.1% +4.0% +2.6%

04:30 Australia Announcement of the RBA decision on the discount rate 3.00% 3.00% 2.75%

The dollar snapped a three-day advance against Japan's currency, the longest streak in more than two weeks, sustained by better-than-expected U.S. payrolls data. The yen depreciated to above 99 per dollar for the first time since April 26 on May 3, when U.S. Labor Department data showed payrolls expanded by a greater-than-expected 165,000 workers last month and the jobless rate unexpectedly declined to 7.5 percent. The currency touched 99.45 yesterday.

The euro remained lower against the greenback before reports forecast to show factory activity slowed in Europe's two biggest economies. Demand for the 17-nation currency was capped before reports forecast to show German factory orders and French industrial production both fell in March from the previous month. German orders probably slid 0.5 percent, while French activity contracted 0.3 percent, according to the median economist forecasts in Bloomberg News surveys.

The Australian dollar fell against its major peers on prospects the central bank may cut borrowing costs to a record low today. In Australia, traders see more than a 50 percent chance the Reserve Bank will lower its benchmark rate to a record 2.75 percent today, according to Bloomberg calculations based on overnight-index swap rates. By contrast, of the 29 economists surveyed by Bloomberg, 8 predict a cut.

Japanese markets reopened today following a four-day holiday weekend.

EUR / USD: during the Asian session, the pair is trading around $ 1.3080

GBP / USD: during the Asian session, the pair is trading around $ 1.5540

USD / JPY: during the Asian session, the pair fell to Y98.80

(pare/closed(00:00 GMT +02:00)/change, %)

EUR/USD $1,3072 -0,31%

GBP/USD $1,5539 -0,21%

USD/CHF Chf0,9383 +0,32%

USD/JPY Y99,32 +0,33%

EUR/JPY Y129,86 +0,02%

GBP/JPY Y154,34 +0,12%

AUD/USD $1,0251 -0,63%

NZD/USD $0,8513 -0,22%

01:30 Australia Trade Balance March -0.18 0.20

01:30 Australia House Price Index (QoQ) Quarter I +1.6% +1.9%

01:30 Australia House Price Index (YoY) Quarter I +2.1% +4.0%

04:30 Australia Announcement of the RBA decision on the discount rate 3.00% 3.00%

04:30 Australia RBA Rate Statement

05:45 Switzerland SECO Consumer Climate Quarter I -6 -3

05:45 Switzerland Unemployment Rate April 3.1% 3.1%

06:45 France Industrial Production, m/m March +0.7% -0.2%

06:45 France Industrial Production, y/y March -2.5% -1.3%

06:45 France Trade Balance, bln March -6.0 -5.3

07:00 United Kingdom Halifax house price index April +0.2% +0.2%

07:00 United Kingdom Halifax house price index 3m Y/Y April +1.1%

07:00 Switzerland Foreign Currency Reserves April 438.3 435.0

10:00 Germany Factory Orders s.a. (MoM) March +2.3% -0.4%

10:00 Germany Factory Orders n.s.a. (YoY) March 0.0% -2.9%

19:00 U.S. Consumer Credit March 18.1 16.2

20:00 U.S. Treasury Sec Lew Speaks

20:30 U.S. API Crude Oil Inventories April +5.2

21:00 New Zealand RBNZ Financial Stability Report May

21:05 New Zealand RBNZ Governor Graeme Wheeler Speaks

23:01 United Kingdom BRC Retail Sales Monitor y/y April +1.9% +1.9%