Novosti i prognoe: devizno tržište od 08-05-2013

The euro exchange rate against the dollar has increased significantly, while recovering after a landslide, triggered by a decrease in rates of the ECB, which helped to better-than-forecast economic indicators for Germany, released this week. Earlier, the market began to worry for the health of core eurozone economies, so the positive statistics from Germany (promzakazy and industrial production) have helped to reduce expectations about the ECB to cut rates again.

Note that today the German Federal Statistical Office reported that in March, industrial production grew by 1.2% on the month and fell by 2.5% in the year. These were better than the average forecast, which envisaged decline by 0.1% m / m and 3.9% y / y The report documents the growth of manufacturing output up 1.4% m / m in March after rising 0.9% the previous month. Production of durable consumer goods increased by 2.2% in March after rising 1.4% in February. Production of non-durable goods increased during the same period by 0.7% after falling 3.0% in the previous reporting month.

The growth of production orders, as witnessed yesterday released a report, and the recovery of the construction should be in the coming months to continue to have a positive effect on the volume of industrial production.

The cost of the New Zealand dollar fell against the U.S. dollar following the news that the Reserve Bank of New Zealand intervened to reduce the rate of the national currency. As a result of such applications has decreased investor interest to the entire block of commodity currencies. Governor of the Central Bank of New Zealand Graeme Wheeler told the committee of Parliament on Budget and Finance Committee that the RBNZ to sell small amounts of the New Zealand dollar to prevent the national currency, as well as not to use the tools of monetary policy, such as lowering interest rates. After this announcement, the currency has traded in the range, despite the emergence of news about the positive balance of foreign trade of China in April and an increase in exports from the country in April, up 14.7% compared with the same period last year.

The Canadian dollar rose against the U.S. dollar, helped by a report released today by Canada, which showed that the number of housing starts in April fell to 175,000 homes a year, but this figure matched analysts' expectations. According to revised data, the number of bookmarks in March totaled 181,000 homes a year.

According to the former Governor of the Bank of Canada David Dodge, the achievement of parity is not so important - it's just another "point in the sequence." However, analysts believe that the U.S. dollar will get strong support in the region of parity. Taking into account the uneven growth of the Canadian dollar, which was observed recently, a break of parity may not be as quick and easy process. On the contrary, the Canadian dollar is likely to make several attempts to break through this mark before he could do so.

Value of the pound against the dollar has increased significantly, reaching maximum values ​​at the same time in the last two weeks, amid speculation that the Bank of England is expected to leave the size of the stimulus program unchanged amid signs that the economy will continue to grow in the second quarter, although at a more moderate pace. Economists expect the Monetary Policy Committee of the central bank will keep the benchmark interest rate at 0.5% and the size of its asset purchase program at 375 billion pounds. Activity in the dominant services sector rose in April to its highest level since August 2012. Similar studies have shown that the production and construction activity also improved. Economists said the combination of promising signals about growth and persistently high inflation should keep the Bank of England from any changes. The annual rate of inflation was 2.8% in March and, despite some easing of inflationary pressures due to commodity prices are expected to stay above 2% target of the Bank of England, for the remainder of the year.