Novosti i prognoe: devizno tržište od 08-10-2014

(pare/closed(GMT +2)/change, %)

EUR/USD $1,2730 +0,52%

GBP/USD $1,6158 +0,39%

USD/CHF Chf0,9520 -0,49%

USD/JPY Y108,13 -0,01%

EUR/JPY Y137,64 +0,51%

GBP/JPY Y174,7 +0,38%

AUD/USD $0,8830 +0,29%

NZD/USD $0,7896 +0,94%

USD/CAD C$1,1107 -0,49%

(time / country / index / period / previous value / forecast)

00:30 Australia Unemployment rate September 6.1% 6.2%

00:30 Australia Changing the number of employed September +121.0 -29.6

06:00 Germany Current Account August 21.7

06:00 Germany Trade Balance August 22.2 18.4

06:00 Japan Prelim Machine Tool Orders, y/y September +35.5%

06:45 France Trade Balance, bln August -5.5 -5.7

08:00 Eurozone ECB Monthly Report

11:00 United Kingdom BoE Interest Rate Decision 0.50% 0.50%

11:00 United Kingdom Asset Purchase Facility 375 375

11:00 United Kingdom MPC Rate Statement

12:30 Canada New Housing Price Index August 0.0% +0.2%

12:30 U.S. Initial Jobless Claims September 287 291

14:00 U.S. Wholesale Inventories August +0.1%

15:00 Eurozone ECB President Mario Draghi Speaks

23:50 Japan Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

23:50 Japan Tertiary Industry Index August 0.0% +0.2%

The U.S. dollar traded mixed against the most major currencies ahead the release of the minutes from the U.S. Federal Reserve's latest meeting. Investors are awaiting new signs for the direction of the U.S. monetary policy.

Yesterday's International Monetary Fund's economic growth cut still weighed on markets.

The euro traded slightly higher against the U.S. dollar in the absence of any major economic reports from the Eurozone.

The British pound traded mixed against the U.S. dollar. U.K. Halifax house prices increased 0.6% in September, exceeding expectations for a 0.2% rise, after a flat reading in August. August's figure was revised down from a 0.1% increase.

On a yearly basis, U.K. Halifax house prices rose 9.6% in September, after a 9.7% gain in August.

The Swiss franc traded slightly higher against the U.S. dollar. Switzerland's unemployment rate remained unchanged at 3.2% in September, in line with expectations.

The Canadian dollar traded lower despite the solid Canadian housing starts. Housing starts in Canada increased to a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 197,343 units in September from 196,283 units in August. August's figure was revised up from 192,368 units. Analysts had expected an increase to 195,000 units.

The increase was driven by multiple unit homes including condominiums.

The New Zealand dollar traded mixed against the U.S. dollar in the absence of any major economic reports from New Zealand.

The Australian dollar fell against the U.S. dollar. In the overnight trading session, the Aussie declined against the greenback as the Australian Bureau of Statistics reported problems with its July and August employment data. The Australian Bureau of Statistics will revise its July and August jobs data.

The Japanese yen traded slightly lower against the U.S. dollar. Japan's economy watchers' current conditions index remained unchanged at 47.4 in September, missing expectations for an increase to 48.2.

Japan's economy watchers' future conditions index dropped to 48.7 in September from 50.4 in August.

Japan's current account surplus rose to 130.8 billion yen in August from 99.3 billion yen in July, missing expectations for a rise to 190 billion yen.

The Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp (CMHC) released housing starts data today. Housing starts in Canada increased to a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 197,343 units in September from 196,283 units in August. August's figure was revised up from 192,368 units.

The increase was driven by multiple unit homes including condominiums. Multiple unit homes including condominiums climbed 2.4% in September.

EUR/USD: $1.2500(E399mn), $1.2540(E207mn), $1.2600(E1.71bn), $1.2700(E207mn), $1.2780(E577mn)

USD/JPY: Y107.25($370mn), Y107.50(Y200mn), Y108.00($1.22bn), Y108.30(210mn), Y108.50($352mn), Y108.90($422mn), Y109.50-55($1.12bn)

GBP/USD: $1.6130(stg301mn)

EUR/GBP: Stg0.7750(E150mn), stg0.7800(E284mn), stg0.7900(E300mn)

AUD/USD: $0.8770(A$100mn), $0.8815(A$200mn)

USD/CAD: C$1.1150($350mn)

The Bank of Japan (BoJ) released its monthly report today. The BoJ said that Japan's economy recovered moderately as a trend. Japan's production showed some weakness due to sales tax hike in April, so the central bank.

The BoJ expects that the economy in Japan will continue to recover moderately. The central bank pointed out that "private consumption is expected to remain resilient".

The consumer price inflation is expected to be around 1.25% for some time, the BoJ said.

Japan's central bank noted that the country's monetary base rose about 35% at annual rate.

Economic calendar (GMT0):

(Time/ Region/ Event/ Period/ Previous/ Forecast/ Actual)

01:45 China HSBC Services PMI September 54.1 53.5

05:00 Japan BoJ monthly economic report

05:00 Japan Eco Watchers Survey: Current September 47.4 48.2 47.4

05:00 Japan Eco Watchers Survey: Outlook September 50.4 48.7

05:45 Switzerland Unemployment Rate September 3.2% 3.2% 3.2%

07:00 United Kingdom Halifax house price index September +0.1% +0.2% +0.6%

07:00 United Kingdom Halifax house price index 3m Y/Y September +9.7% +9.6%

The U.S. dollar traded mixed against the most major currencies ahead the release of the minutes from the U.S. Federal Reserve's latest meeting. Investors are awaiting new signs for the direction of the U.S. monetary policy.

Yesterday's International Monetary Fund's economic growth cut still weighed on markets.

The euro traded mixed against the U.S. dollar in the absence of any major economic reports from the Eurozone.

The British pound traded mixed against the U.S. dollar. U.K. Halifax house prices increased 0.6% in September, exceeding expectations for a 0.2% rise, after a flat reading in August. August's figure was revised down from a 0.1% increase.

On a yearly basis, U.K. Halifax house prices rose 9.6% in September, after a 9.7% gain in August.

The Swiss franc traded mixed against the U.S. dollar. Switzerland's unemployment rate remained unchanged at 3.2% in September, in line with expectations.

The Canadian dollar traded mixed ahead of the Canadian housing starts. Housing starts in Canada are expected to 195,000 units in September.

EUR/USD: the currency pair traded mixed

GBP/USD: the currency pair traded mixed

USD/JPY: the currency pair traded mixed

The most important news that are expected (GMT0):

12:15 Canada Housing Starts September 192 195

18:00 U.S. FOMC meeting minutes

23:50 Japan Core Machinery Orders September +3.5% +1.1%

23:50 Japan Core Machinery Orders, y/y September +1.1% -5.1%

EUR/USD

Offers $1.2800/10, $1.2740-55, $1.2685-710

Bids $1.2500

GBP/USD

Offers

Bids $1.6020, $1.6000, $1.5980

AUD/USD

Offers $0.8900, $0.8850, $0.8820

Bids $0.8750, $0.8700, $0.8680/60, $0.8650, $0.8640/20

EUR/JPY

Offers Y138.00, Y137.50

Bids Y136.50, Y136.00, Y135.50, Y135.00

USD/JPY

Offers Y109.50, Y108.90/00, Y108.70/80, Y108.20

Bids Y107.50, Y107.00, Y106.85/80

EUR/GBP

Offers stg0.7980, stg0.7900

Bids stg0.7835/30

EUR/USD: $1.2500(E399mn), $1.2540(E207mn), $1.2600(E1.71bn), $1.2700(E207mn), $1.2780(E577mn)

USD/JPY: Y107.25($370mn), Y107.50(Y200mn), Y108.00($1.22bn), Y108.30(210mn), Y108.50($352mn), Y108.90($422mn), Y109.50-55($1.12bn)

GBP/USD: $1.6130(stg301mn)

EUR/GBP: Stg0.7750(E150mn), stg0.7800(E284mn), stg0.7900(E300mn)

AUD/USD: $0.8770(A$100mn), $0.8815(A$200mn)

USD/CAD: C$1.1150($350mn)

Economic calendar (GMT0):

(Time/ Region/ Event/ Period/ Previous/ Forecast/ Actual)

01:45 China HSBC Services PMI September 54.1 53.5

05:00 Japan BoJ monthly economic report

05:00 Japan Eco Watchers Survey: Current September 47.4 48.2 47.4

05:00 Japan Eco Watchers Survey: Outlook September 50.4 48.7

05:45 Switzerland Unemployment Rate September 3.2% 3.2% 3.2%

07:00 United Kingdom Halifax house price index September +0.1% +0.2% +0.6%

07:00 United Kingdom Halifax house price index 3m Y/Y September +9.7% +9.6%

The U.S. dollar traded higher against the most major currencies. The International Monetary Fund's (IMF) forecast cut for global growth for 2014 and 2015 still weighed on the risk-related assets. The IMF lowered its forecast for global economic growth to 3.3% in 2014, down from a previous forecast of 3.4%. 2015 forecast was cut to 3.8%, down from a previous forecast of 4.0%.

The New Zealand dollar fell against the U.S. dollar in the absence of any major economic reports from New Zealand.

The Australian dollar declined against the U.S. dollar as the Australian Bureau of Statistics reported problems with its July and August employment data. The Australian Bureau of Statistics will revise its July and August jobs data.

The Japanese yen decreased against the U.S. dollar after the disappointing economic data from Japan. Japan's economy watchers' current conditions index remained unchanged at 47.4 in September, missing expectations for an increase to 48.2.

Japan's economy watchers' future conditions index dropped to 48.7 in September from 50.4 in August.

Japan's current account surplus rose to 130.8 billion yen in August from 99.3 billion yen in July, missing expectations for a rise to 190 billion yen.

EUR/USD: the currency pair fell to $1.2626

GBP/USD: the currency pair decreased to $1.6051

USD/JPY: the currency pair climbed to Y108.53

The most important news that are expected (GMT0):

12:15 Canada Housing Starts September 192 195

18:00 U.S. FOMC meeting minutes

23:50 Japan Core Machinery Orders September +3.5% +1.1%

23:50 Japan Core Machinery Orders, y/y September +1.1% -5.1%

EUR / USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.2776 (1860)

$1.2738 (1658)

$1.2712 (277)

Price at time of writing this review: $ 1.2629

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.2776 (1860)

$1.2738 (1658)

$1.2712 (277)

Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options with the expiration date November, 7 is 50223 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,2900 (5580);

- Overall open interest on the PUT options with the expiration date November, 7 is 48238 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,2400 (4415);

- The ratio of PUT/CALL was 0.96 versus 0.96 from the previous trading day according to data from October, 7

GBP/USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.6305 (1092)

$1.6208 (1475)

$1.6112 (689)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.6056

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.5991 (2121)

$1.5594 (1012)

$1.5796 (1482)

Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options with the expiration date November, 7 is 22026 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,6750 (1893);

- Overall open interest on the PUT options with the expiration date November, 7 is 28009 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,6000 (2121);

- The ratio of PUT/CALL was 1.27 versus 1.33 from the previous trading day according to data from October, 7

* - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange bulletin (CME) is used for the calculation.

** - Open interest takes into account the total number of option contracts that are open at the moment.