Novosti i prognoe: devizno tržište od 06-10-2014

(pare/closed(GMT +2)/change, %)

EUR/USD $1,2652 +1,10%

GBP/USD $1,6080 +0,68%

USD/CHF Chf0,9582 -0,97%

USD/JPY Y108,72 -0,95%

EUR/JPY Y137,56 +0,16%

GBP/JPY Y174,83 -0,25%

AUD/USD $0,8758 +0,96%

NZD/USD $0,7833 +0,87%

USD/CAD C$1,1137 -0,94%

(time / country / index / period / previous value / forecast)

00:00 China Bank holiday

03:00 Japan Bank of Japan Monetary Base Target 270 270

03:00 Japan BoJ Interest Rate Decision 0.10% 0.10%

03:00 Japan BoJ Monetary Policy Statement

03:30 Australia Announcement of the RBA decision on the discount rate 2.50% 2.50%

03:30 Australia RBA Rate Statement

05:00 Japan Leading Economic Index August 105.4 104.2

05:00 Japan Coincident Index August 109.9

06:00 Germany Industrial Production s.a. (MoM) August +1.9% -1.4%

06:00 Germany Industrial Production (YoY) August +2.5%

07:00 United Kingdom Halifax house price index September +0.1% +0.2%

07:00 United Kingdom Halifax house price index 3m Y/Y September +9,7%

07:00 Switzerland Foreign Currency Reserves September 453.8

07:15 Switzerland Retail Sales Y/Y August -0.6% +0.8%

07:15 Switzerland Consumer Price Index (MoM) September 0.0% +0.2%

07:15 Switzerland Consumer Price Index (YoY) September +0.1% 0.0%

07:30 Japan BOJ Press Conference

08:30 United Kingdom Industrial Production (MoM) August +0.5% 0.0%

08:30 United Kingdom Industrial Production (YoY) August +1.7% +2.6%

08:30 United Kingdom Manufacturing Production (MoM) August +0.3% +0.2%

08:30 United Kingdom Manufacturing Production (YoY) August +2.2% +3.4%

08:30 United Kingdom BOE Credit Conditions Survey

12:30 Canada Building Permits (MoM) August +11.8%

14:00 United Kingdom NIESR GDP Estimate September +0.6%

14:00 U.S. JOLTs Job Openings August 4673 4710

17:20 U.S. FOMC Member Narayana Kocherlakota

19:00 U.S. Consumer Credit August 26.0 20.3

19:00 U.S. FOMC Member Dudley Speak

20:30 U.S. API Crude Oil Inventories September -0.5

23:50 Japan Current Account (adjusted), bln August 99.3 190

The U.S. dollar traded lower against the most major currencies, but remained supported by Friday's U.S. labour market data. The economy in the U.S. added 248,000 jobs in September, exceeding expectations for 216,000 jobs, after 180,000 jobs in August.

The unemployment rate dropped to 5.9% in September from 6.1% in August. That was the lowest level since July 2008.

The euro traded higher against the U.S. dollar despite the weak economic data from the Eurozone. German factory orders declined 5.7% in August, beating expectations for a 2.4% decrease, after a 4.9% gain in July. July's figure was revised up from a 4.6% rise. That was the largest drop since 2009.

The Sentix investor confidence index for the Eurozone dropped to -13.7 in October from -9.8 in September. Analysts had expected the index to decline to -11.3.

The British pound traded higher against the U.S. dollar in the absence of any major economic data from the U.K.

The Canadian dollar increased against the U.S. dollar after the better-than-expected Ivey purchasing managers' index for Canada. The Ivey purchasing managers' index climbed to 58.6 in September from 50.9 in August, exceeding expectations for a rise to 53.4.

The New Zealand dollar traded mixed against the U.S. dollar in the absence of any major economic reports from New Zealand.

The Australian dollar traded mixed against the U.S. dollar. In the overnight trading, the Aussie rose against the greenback.

ANZ job advertisements increased 0.9% in September, after a 1.6% gain in August. August's figure was revised up from a 1.5% rise.

The Japanese yen traded higher against the U.S. dollar in the absence of any major economic reports were released in Japan.

EUR/USD: $1.2525-30(E333mn), $1.2600(E881bn), $1.2650(E734mn), $1.2685-90(E600mn), $1.2700(E3.0bn)

USD/JPY: Y109.00($2.95bn), Y110.50($603mn)

EUR-YEN: Y137.30(1.8bn)

EUR/GBP: Stg0.7800(E290mn)

USD/CHF: Chf0.9400($570mn)

AUD/USD: $0.8700(A$378mn), $0.8775(A$757mn)

NZD/USD: $0.7950(NZ$440mn)

USD/CAD: C$1.1180($230mn), C$1.1200($400mn), C$1.1250($290mn)

Economic calendar (GMT0):

(Time/ Region/ Event/ Period/ Previous/ Forecast/ Actual)

00:00 China Bank holiday

00:30 Australia ANZ Job Advertisements (MoM) September +1.5% +0.9%

06:00 Germany Factory Orders s.a. (MoM) August +4.6% -2.4% -5.7%

06:00 Germany Factory Orders n.s.a. (YoY) August +4.9% -1.3%

08:30 Eurozone Sentix Investor Confidence October -9.8 -11.3 -13.7

The U.S. dollar traded lower against the most major currencies, but remained supported by Friday's U.S. labour market data. The economy in the U.S. added 248,000 jobs in September, exceeding expectations for 216,000 jobs, after 180,000 jobs in August. August's figure was revised up from 142,000 jobs.

The unemployment rate dropped to 5.9% in September from 6.1% in August. That was the lowest level since July 2008. Analysts had expected the unemployment rate to remain unchanged at 6.1%.

The euro traded higher against the U.S. dollar despite the weak economic data from the Eurozone. German factory orders declined 5.7% in August, beating expectations for a 2.4% decrease, after a 4.9% gain in July. July's figure was revised up from a 4.6% rise. That was the largest drop since 2009.

The Sentix investor confidence index for the Eurozone dropped to -13.7 in October from -9.8 in September. Analysts had expected the index to decline to -11.3.

The British pound traded higher against the U.S. dollar in the absence of any major economic data from the U.K.

EUR/USD: the currency pair increased to $1.2565

GBP/USD: the currency pair rose to $1.5991

USD/JPY: the currency pair declined to Y109.26

The most important news that are expected (GMT0):

14:00 Canada Ivey Purchasing Managers Index September 50.9 53.4

21:00 New Zealand NZIER Business Confidence Quarter III 32

EUR/USD: $1.2525-30(E333mn), $1.2600(E881bn), $1.2650(E734mn), $1.2685-90(E600mn), $1.2700(E3.0bn)

USD/JPY: Y109.00($2.95bn), Y110.50($603mn)

EUR-YEN: Y137.30(1.8bn)

EUR/GBP: Stg0.7800(E290mn)

USD/CHF: Chf0.9400($570mn)

AUD/USD: $0.8700(A$378mn), $0.8775(A$757mn)

NZD/USD: $0.7950(NZ$440mn)

USD/CAD: C$1.1180($230mn), C$1.1200($400mn), C$1.1250($290mn)

Economic calendar (GMT0):

(Time/ Region/ Event/ Period/ Previous/ Forecast/ Actual)

00:00 China Bank holiday

00:30 Australia ANZ Job Advertisements (MoM) September +1.5% +0.9%

06:00 Germany Factory Orders s.a. (MoM) August +4.6% -2.4% -5.7%

06:00 Germany Factory Orders n.s.a. (YoY) August +4.9% -1.3%

08:30 Eurozone Sentix Investor Confidence October -9.8 -11.3 -13.7

The U.S. dollar traded lower against the most major currencies, but remained supported by Friday's U.S. labour market data. The economy in the U.S. added 248,000 jobs in September, exceeding expectations for 216,000 jobs, after 180,000 jobs in August. August's figure was revised up from 142,000 jobs.

The unemployment rate dropped to 5.9% in September from 6.1% in August. That was the lowest level since July 2008. Analysts had expected the unemployment rate to remain unchanged at 6.1%.

The New Zealand dollar traded slightly higher against the U.S. dollar in the absence of any major economic reports from New Zealand.

The strength of the greenback and the suspension of some Fonterra's milk powder products by Sri Lanka's health ministry weighed on the kiwi.

The Australian dollar traded higher against the U.S. dollar. ANZ job advertisements increased 0.9% in September, after a 1.6% gain in August. August's figure was revised up from a 1.5% rise.

The Japanese yen increased against the U.S. dollar in the absence of any major economic reports were released in Japan.

EUR/USD: the currency pair rose to $1.2523

GBP/USD: the currency pair increased to $1.5988

USD/JPY: the currency pair fell to Y109.48

The most important news that are expected (GMT0):

14:00 Canada Ivey Purchasing Managers Index September 50.9 53.4

21:00 New Zealand NZIER Business Confidence Quarter III 32

EUR / USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.2708 (1467)

$1.2648 (640)

$1.2603 (264)

Price at time of writing this review: $ 1.2519

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.2457 (1724)

$1.2417 (2734)

$1.2391 (4357)

Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options with the expiration date November, 7 is 41763 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,2900 (4755);

- Overall open interest on the PUT options with the expiration date November, 7 is 43951 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,2500 (4357);

- The ratio of PUT/CALL was 1.05 versus 0.92 from the previous trading day according to data from October, 3

GBP/USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.6204 (469)

$1.6107 (472)

$1.6011 (178)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.5984

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.5889 (735)

$1.5793 (1177)

$1.5695 (898)

Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options with the expiration date November, 7 is 18269 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,6750 (1885);

- Overall open interest on the PUT options with the expiration date November, 7 is 26347 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,5400 (1944);

- The ratio of PUT/CALL was 1.44 versus 1.20 from the previous trading day according to data from October, 3

* - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange bulletin (CME) is used for the calculation.

** - Open interest takes into account the total number of option contracts that are open at the moment.