Novosti i prognoe: devizno tržište od 09-09-2013

The dollar declined significantly against the euro, because of the uncertainty around the reduction of quantitative easing in the U.S. . We also add that the markets are still analyzing the data on non-farm payrolls , which were released on Friday . Investors expect the Fed will begin reducing incentives in September , despite the negative statistics

Meanwhile , we note that the growth of the euro was supported by news from the Bank of France. The Bank of France said Monday that the revised upward its growth estimate for the French economy in the third quarter and now expects gross domestic product expanded by 0.2 % q / q.

In the previous forecast of the central bank of France was expecting growth of 0.1 % in the third quarter compared with the previous quarter . The French economy grew by 0.2 % in the second quarter, after two consecutive quarters of reductions .

The Bank of France reported that business sentiment in August showed a slight improvement in most industries , with higher supplies and lower stocks, and business leaders are expected to accelerate activity in September.

The yen rose against the dollar, which , in the first place , helped publish a report on the GDP . As shown by the final data from the Cabinet of Ministers , which were published yesterday in the second quarter , Japan's economy grew more than initially thought , but still not enough to confirm the predictions of experts.

According to the report . Japan's gross domestic product grew by 0.9 % in the second quarter of 2013 compared with the previous three months. We add that the final figure was higher than the preliminary estimate at 0.6 % , which was published on August 12. It should also be noted that according to the average forecasts of experts the economy were to expand by 1.0 %.

In the Cabinet of Ministers also reported that the annual rate of gross domestic product was revised to 3.8 % from 2.6 % in the preliminary reading, which was slightly below economists' forecast of 3.9 percent growth . We also recall that in the first quarter economic growth rate was 4.1%.

Nominal GDP , meanwhile, grew by 0.9 % in the quarter , which was slightly more than the initial assessment at the level of 0.7% , but still below the expectations of experts at the level of 1.0 %, which was followed after increasing 0.6 % in the previous quarter.

The pound has appreciated strongly against the dollar as risk appetite and , as a consequence, the British currency is still prevalent among traders. It should be noted that today the pair rose sharply, leaving behind a mark of $ 1.5700 and tested the multi-week peak around $ 1.5730 . Risk sentiment continued to dominate the currency markets at the beginning of this week, but volatility may be somewhat exaggerated view of an empty economic calendar in the euro area and the United States . Experts point out that it is still the balance of risks indicates a weakening of the pound by the end of the year, as there is no confidence in the stability of the British economy recovery . According to estimates , the rate of growth are exaggerated , but the rise in consumer spending may not correspond to the declared rate of economic growth , given the sluggish increase in wages.

EUR/USD $1.3050, $1.3100, $1.3110, $1.3120, $1.3200, $1.3245, $1.3250

USD/JPY Y98.50, Y98.60, Y99.00, Y99.25, Y99.50, Y100.00, Y100.75, Y100.90, Y101.00

EUR/JPY Y130.75

GBP/USD $1.5500, $1.5600

USD/CHF Chf0.9425, Chf0.9480

EUR/CHF Chf1.2345

AUD/USD $0.9000, $0.9020, $0.9100, $0.9160, $0.9200

AUD/NZD NZ$1.1450

AUD/JPY Y91.50

USD/CAD C$1.0400, C$1.0475

Eurozone's investor confidence increased in September to the second-highest level on record, and to a significantly larger extent than economists had forecast, as the region emerged from its long-drawn recession in the second quarter, a closely watched survey revealed Monday.

Data from a survey conducted by think-tank Sentix showed that the headline investor confidence index for the Eurozone climbed to 6.5 in September from -4.9 in August.

Economists were looking for a score of -4. The September reading was the highest since May 2011. The headline index has returned to the positive territory for the first time since July 2011.

In September, Euro area investors were notably less downbeat about the current situation, with the corresponding sub-indicator rising sharply to a two-year high of -8.8 from -22.3 a month earlier.

At the same time, the measure of respondents' expectations for investments over the next 6-month period advanced to 23 from 14.3 in August. A higher reading in this series was last registered in April 2006.

05:45 Switzerland Unemployment Rate August 3.0% 3.0% 3.2%

06:00 Japan Eco Watchers Survey: Current August 52.3 53.8 51.2

06:00 Japan Eco Watchers Survey: Outlook August 53.6 51.2

07:15 Switzerland Retail Sales Y/Y July +2.3% +3.2% +0.8%

08:30 Eurozone Sentix Investor Confidence September -4.9 -4.0 +6.5

The euro strengthened against the U.S. dollar . After 26 months of negative performance index of confidence of European investors Sentix jumped in August to around 6.5 -4.9 against the July results . Analysts had expected growth to only -4.0 .

The yen rose against the dollar and the euro after a report by Japan's GDP for the second quarter of 2013, which increased by 3.8 % compared to the second quarter of 2012. Previously reported increase of GDP in the April-June by 2.6 %, after 4.1% in January- March. Analysts had expected a more significant revision - to 3.9 %. Evaluation of nominal GDP in the 2nd quarter compared to the 1st quarter without converting to an annual rate improved from 0.7 % to 0.9 %. The Cabinet expects economic growth of 2.8% in the current financial year ending 31 March 2014.

The Australian dollar hit a three-week high after the trade surplus of China in August 2013 increased by 60.1 % to $ 28.5 billion from $ 17.8 billion in July. Index reached its highest level since January. China's export growth continues to gain momentum , the growth in August was 7.2 % compared to the same period last year. In July, exports rose by 5.1 %, while the rate in June fell by 3.1 %. The import of the previous month increased by 7 % in annual terms , while in July, an increase of 10.9%. The overall picture shows that the Chinese economy benefits from the gradual strengthening of demand in the U.S. and other major export markets. China also continues to stock raw materials for the industrial sector.

EUR / USD: during the European session, the pair rose to $ 1.3198

GBP / USD: during the European session, the pair rose to $ 1.5685

USD / JPY: during the European session, the pair fell to Y99.33

At 12:30 GMT Canada will report on changes in the volume of building permits issued in July. At 23:01 GMT Britain will publish house price balance of the RICS in August. At 23:50 GMT the meeting minutes will be published on the Bank of Japan's monetary policy , Japan will release the index of activity in the services sector in July.

EUR/USD

Offers $1.3290/300, $1.3250/60, $1.3220/25, $1.3200

Bids $1.3150/40, $1.3110/00, $1.3090/85, $1.3080-50, $1.3025/20

GBP/USD

Offers $1.5780/85, $1.5750/55, $1.5720/25, $1.5700/10, $1.5680/85

Bids $1.5630, $1.5600, $1.5565/60, $1.5555/50, $1.5525/20

AUD/USD

Offers $0.9400, $0.9335-50, $0.9300, $0.9270/75, $0.9250, $0.9230/35, $0.9225

Bids $0.9155/50, $0.9100, $0.9080

EUR/GBP

Offers stg0.8550/55, stg0.8520, stg0.8450/65, stg0.8430/35

Bids stg0.8400, stg0.8390, stg0.8380, stg0.8350

EUR/JPY

Offers Y133.00, Y132.50, Y132.20, Y131.80\5/00

Bids Y130.00/9.80, Y129.50, Y129.20, Y129.00, Y128.50

USD/JPY

Offers Y101.00, Y100.80, Y100.50, Y100.20/30

Bids Y99.35/30, Y99.20-00, Y98.50, Y98.25/20, Y98.00

EUR/USD $1.3050, $1.3100, $1.3110, $1.3120, $1.3200, $1.3245, $1.3250

USD/JPY Y98.50, Y98.60, Y99.00, Y99.25, Y99.50, Y100.00, Y100.75, Y100.90, Y101.00

EUR/JPY Y130.75

GBP/USD $1.5500, $1.5600

USD/CHF Chf0.9425

EUR/CHF Chf1.2345

AUD/USD $0.9000, $0.9020, $0.9100, $0.9160, $0.9200

AUD/NZD NZ$1.1450

USD/CAD C$1.0475

01:30 Australia ANZ Job Advertisements (MoM) August -1.1% -2.0%

01:30 Australia Home Loans July +2.6% Revised From 2.7% +2.2% +2.4

01:30 China PPI y/y August -2.3% -1.7% -1.6%

01:30 China CPI y/y August +2.7% +2.6% +2.6%

02:00 China Trade Balance, bln August 17.8 20.3 19.6

05:00 Japan Consumer Confidence August 43.6 44.3 43.0

The yen fell as Tokyo’s winning bid to host the 2020 Olympics boosted optimism in Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s package of fiscal and monetary policies that have helped weaken the currency 13 percent this year. Japan’s capital, which staged the 1964 Summer Games, beat Madrid and Istanbul to win the 2020 host role, the International Olympic Committee said Sept. 7 in Buenos Aires. Abe said yesterday at a televised press conference that the games would have “good effects on a wide range of areas such as infrastructure and tourism.

The yen was lower against all of its major peers after a report showed the nation’s economy expanded faster than initially estimated. Japan’s gross domestic product rose an annualized 3.8 percent in the second quarter from three months before, compared with a preliminary estimate of 2.6 percent, the Cabinet Office said in Tokyo today. First quarter growth was revised to 4.1 percent, the fastest in a year, from 3.8 percent.

The U.S. currency held gains from last week versus the euro amid expectations the Federal Reserve will reduce its $85 billion in monthly bond purchases this month.

Australia’s dollar touched a three-week high after data showed China’s exports increased, boosting trade prospects. In China, overseas shipments rose 7.2 percent in August from a year earlier, the General Administration of Customs said in Beijing yesterday. That compares with the 5.5 percent median estimate of economists surveyed by Bloomberg and July’s 5.1 percent gain. Imports rose a less-than-estimated 7 percent, leaving a trade surplus of more than $28 billion.

Consumer prices in China rose 2.6 percent last month from a year earlier, the Beijing-based National Bureau of Statistics said today, matching the median economist estimate in a Bloomberg poll. Prices gained 2.7 percent in both July and June, the fastest pace since February.

EUR / USD: during the Asian session the pair traded in the range of $ 1.3160-80

GBP / USD: during the Asian session, the pair rose to $ 1.5645

USD / JPY: during the Asian session the pair is trading around the level to Y99.80

The first half of the week is fairly data light on both sides of the Atlantic, with much investor attention on the address to the nation by President Obama on Tuesday evening, laying out the case for strikes against Syria. Then there will be the votes in Congress later in the week. Today's data gets underway with the release of the Swiss August unemployment numbers at 0545GMT. There is further Swiss data expected at 0715GMT, with the release of the July retail sales numbers. The main euro area release comes at 1000GMT, when the OECD leading indicator will be released.