Novosti i prognoe: devizno tržište od 11-09-2013

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11.09.2013

18:20

American focus : the U.S. dollar declined significantly against the euro

The euro rose sharply against the U.S. dollar since the deposition of the vote on approval of military intervention in Syria has reduced demand for refuge assets . It should be noted that on Monday, the first vote on military intervention in Syria , scheduled in the Senate, was unexpectedly delayed. It was assumed that it will take place later this week, but then the senators have made it clear that the vote be postponed to a later date. Earlier, President Obama liked the statement of Minister of Foreign Affairs of Russia Sergey Lavrov, who believes that all stocks of chemical weapons to Syria to pass under international control. Secretariat of the President of Russia has carefully examined the proposal on Syria and decided to postpone the war. Obama said that this could be a first step to ending the conflict .

Note that many market participants are waiting for tomorrow's speech by Federal Reserve Bank of New York William Dudley . Earlier in his speech , on July 2 , Dudley said that U.S. economic growth is likely to quicken in 2014, and to reduce the quantitative easing program may have in the fall. Recall that the meeting will take place on September 17-18 Open Market Committee Federal Reserve , where, according to the median forecast of experts , politicians will reduce the amount of monthly purchases to $ 75 billion from the current $ 85 billion

The pound rose against the dollar significantly , which in the first place was due to release better-than- expected data on British employment as well. This has given rise to expectations that the Bank of England may have to raise interest rates earlier than indicated in the long-term plan policy.

As it became known, in the UK, the number of applications for unemployment benefits fell in August, more than expected , to the lowest level since February 2009 , showed on Wednesday , official data .

According to the Office for National Statistics , the number of people claiming unemployment benefits fell by 32,600 to 1.40 million, is the lowest level since February 2009 . Economists had expected a drop to 21200 .

As a result, the unemployment rate in August fell to 4.2 percent from 4.3 percent in July . Economists had expected the rate will remain unchanged at 4.3 percent .

The unemployment rate in the three months to July was 7.7 percent, up 0.1 percentage points lower than in the period from February to April. Unemployment rates were slightly lower than expected 7.8 percent . Average wages excluding bonuses rose by 1 percent during May to July compared with the same period a year earlier. With bonuses revenues grew by 1.1 percent.

14:30

U.S.: Crude Oil Inventories, September -0.2

14:00

U.S.: Wholesale Inventories, July +0.1% (forecast +0.3%)

13:45

Option expiries for today's 1400GMT cut

EUR/USD $1.3100, $1.3215, $1.3250, $1.3350

USD/JPY Y99.50, Y99.60, Y100.10, Y100.50, Y101.00, Y101.30

EUR/JPY Y132.00

EUR/GBP stg0.8400, stg0.8405, stg0.8420

USD/CHF Chf0.9275

EUR/CHF Chf1.2310

AUD/USD $0.9200, $0.9285, $0.9300

EUR/AUD A$1.4375

NZD/USD $0.7950

USD/CAD C$1.0400, C$1.0650

12:15

European session: the pound rose

05:30 France Non-Farm Payrolls (Finally) Quarter II -0.2% -0.2% -0.2%

06:00 Germany CPI, m/m (Finally) August 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

06:00 Germany CPI, y/y (Finally) August +1.5% +1.5% +1.5%

08:30 United Kingdom Average earnings ex bonuses, 3 m/y July +1.1% +1.0% +1.0%

08:30 United Kingdom ILO Unemployment Rate July 7.8% 7.8% 7.7%

08:30 United Kingdom Average Earnings, 3m/y July +2.1% +1.3% +1.1%

08:30 United Kingdom Claimant count August -29.2 -21.2 -32.6

08:30 United Kingdom Claimant Count Rate August 4.3% 4.3% 4.2%

The yen earlier fell to seven-week low after U.S. President Barack Obama at a closed meeting with senators urged the Senate to delay the vote on approval of military intervention in Syria before considering a possible diplomatic solution to the conflict. On Monday, the first vote on military intervention in Syria , scheduled in the Senate, was unexpectedly delayed. It was assumed that it will take place later this week, but then the senators have made it clear that the vote be postponed to a later date. Earlier, President Obama liked the statement of Minister of Foreign Affairs of Russia Sergey Lavrov, who believes that all stocks of chemical weapons to Syria to pass under international control. Secretariat of the President of Russia has carefully examined the proposal on Syria and decided to postpone the war. Obama said that this could be a first step to ending the conflict .

The dollar steadied against major currencies ahead of tomorrow's speech of President of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York , William C. Dudley . Earlier in his speech , on July 2 , Dudley said that U.S. economic growth is likely to quicken in 2014, and to reduce the quantitative easing program may have in the fall. Recall that the meeting will take place on September 17-18 Open Market Committee Federal Reserve , where, according to the median forecast of experts , politicians will reduce the amount of monthly purchases to $ 75 billion from the current $ 85 billion

The pound rose and crossed the mark of $ 1.5800 after a report on employment in the UK. According to the Office for National Statistics , the number of people claiming unemployment benefits fell by 32,600 to 1.40 million, is the lowest level since February 2009 . Economists had expected a fall of 21,200 . As a result, the unemployment rate in August fell to 4.2 percent from 4.3 percent in July . Economists had expected the rate will remain unchanged at 4.3 percent . The unemployment rate in the three months to July was 7.7 percent, up 0.1 percentage points lower than in the period from February to April. Unemployment rates were slightly lower than expected 7.8 percent .

EUR / USD: during the European session, the pair rose to $ 1.3277

GBP / USD: during the European session, the pair rose to $ 1.5825

USD / JPY: during the European session, the pair fell to Y100.08

At 14:30 GMT the U.S. will release data on stocks of crude oil from the Ministry of Energy . At 17:00 GMT the United States spends placement of 10 - year bonds . At 21:00 GMT we will know the RBNZ decision on the basic interest rate will be a press conference by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand , the accompanying statement will be made of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, and will report the monetary policy of the RBNZ . End the day at 23:50 GMT Japan data on the change in orders for machinery and equipment for July.

12:00

Orders

EUR/USD

Offers $1.3320/25, $1.3295/310

Bids $1.3230/20, $1.3210/00, $1.3150/40

GBP/USD

Offers $1.5920/30, $1.5900, $1.5870/80, $1.5840/50

Bids $1.5685/80, $1.5650, $1.5630, $1.5600

AUD/USD

Offers $0.9400, $0.9380/85, $0.9350, $0.9330/35, $0.9320

Bids $0.9270, $0.9250, $0.9220/15, $0.9205/00

EUR/GBP

Offers stg0.8550/55, stg0.8520, stg0.8450/65

Bids stg0.8380, stg0.8350, stg0.8300

EUR/JPY

Offers Y134.60, Y134.30/40, Y133.80, Y133.50

Bids Y132.80/70, Y132.10/00, Y131.50, Y130.80, Y130.00/9.80

USD/JPY

Offers Y101.50/55, Y101.00, Y100.80, Y100.60/65

Bids Y100.00, Y99.80/70, Y99.35/30, Y99.20

09:45

U.K. jobless claims decline sharply in August

Britain's jobless claims declined more-than-expected in August to the lowest since February 2009, official data showed Wednesday.

The number of people claiming Jobseeker's Allowance decreased 32,600 to 1.40 million, the smallest since February 2009, the Office for National Statistics said. Economists had expected a fall of 21,000.

Consequently, the claimant count rate for August edged down to 4.2 percent from 4.3 percent in July. The rate was expected to remain unchanged at 4.3 percent.

The unemployment rate for three months to July came in at 7.7 percent, down 0.1 percentage point from February to April period. The rate was slightly below the expected 7.8 percent.

Average earnings excluding bonus payments rose 1 percent during May to July compared with the same period a year earlier. Including bonus payments, earnings climbed 1.1 percent.

09:24