Novosti i prognoe: devizno tržište od 21-07-2014

Data:

(time / country / index / period / previous value / forecast / actual value)

00:00 Japan official holiday

3:00 New Zealand Spending on credit cards, y / y +7.5% +7.0 June%

6:00 Germany Producer Price Index m / m -0.2% June 0.1% 0.0%

6:00 Germany Producer Price Index y / y in June -0.8% -0.7%

10:00 Germany Bundesbank Monthly Report July

Rate of the euro retreated from a session high against the dollar, while returning below the opening level. Investors remained cautious after last weekend's Malaysian airliner was shot down in eastern Ukraine, while the conflict in Gaza is also putting pressure on market sentiment. Pressure also continue to provide comments from ECB President Mario Draghi, who was seen as the latest sign that the bank is open to further monetary easing measures to prevent the risk of deflation in the euro zone.

Little influenced by the current German data which showed that in a monthly basis, prices of German manufacturers remained unchanged in June, which followed a decline of 0.2 percent in May. Many experts expect that this figure will grow by 0.1 percent. It was also reported that, compared with the same period of the previous year the producer price index fell by 0.7 per cent compared, a little slow pace compared to May, when it was seen falling 0.8 percent. We add that the last change coincided with the average forecast. Also note that the June decline is the smallest since December. Excluding energy prices, producer prices in June fell 0.1 percent year on year, but remained unchanged in monthly terms.

Pound fell against the dollar, falling under the influence of a weak report on Britain. It is learned that in July the price of property in the UK fell for the second month in a row, with increased number of homes for sale, the report said Rightmove Plc. Since June, the price of homes in the UK capital fell by 0.4 percent to an average of 587,174 pounds ($ 1 million), said the real estate operator. In England and Wales, prices fell by 0.8 per cent, this is the first decline since December. The report also said that there are signs of slowdown in the UK property market. The main areas of the capital, where there was the largest decline, steel Islington, Wandsworth and Kingston, each prices fell by 3.8 percent for the month. At the national level of the 10 regions tracked by Rightmove, in seven there was a reduction. In the East Midlands and the North of real estate prices dropped by 1.9 percent

EUR / USD: during the European session, the pair rose to $ 1.3548, but then fell to $ 1.3511

GBP / USD: during the European session, the pair fell to $ 1.7068

USD / JPY: during the European session, the pair fell to Y101.18, but then rose to Y101.35

At 23:25 GMT Australia will deliver a speech aide RBA Guy Debell.

EUR/USD

Offers $1.3640, $1.3590/600, $1.3580, $1.3550

Bids $1.3500, $1.3490, $1.3475

GBP/USD

Offers $1.7200, $1.7190, $1.7140, $1.7115

Bids $1.7040/35, $1.7005/00, $1.6950

AUD/USD

Offers $0.9500, $0.9450, $0.9420

Bids $0.9360, $0.9320, $0.9300

EUR/JPY

Offers Y138.20, Y138.00, Y137.75/80, Y137.30

Bids Y136.50, Y136.00, Y135.75, Y135.50

USD/JPY

Offers Y102.00, Y101.80, Y101.50

Bids Y101.00, Y100.80, Y100.50

EUR/GBP

Offers stg0.8000, stg0.7980/85, stg0.7930/35

Bids stg0.7884-80, stg0.7850, stg0.7800

EUR/USD $1.3500

USD/JPY Y100.95, Y101.20, Y101.50, Y101.75-80, Y102.00

GBP/USD $1.7075, $1.7175

EUR/GBP Stg0.8000

AUD/USD $0.9250, $0.9395, $0.9400

USD/CAD C$1.0745, C$1.0800

A gauge of the U.S. dollar was 0.2 percent from a four-week high before data tomorrow economists say will show consumer-price inflation held at the fastest since October 2012, boosting the case for higher interest rates. U.S. consumer prices climbed at an annual rate of 2.1 percent in June, matching May's figure that was the most since October 2012, according to a Bloomberg News survey of economists before the Labor Department report. The inflation rate has increased from 1.1 percent in February.

The U.S. currency has risen versus all except one of its Group-of-10 peers this month as traders boosted bets the Federal Reserve will increase its benchmark from near zero by the middle of 2015.

The New Zealand dollar rose for a second day on speculation the central bank will raise borrowing costs this week. Central bank Governor Graeme Wheeler will raise the cash rate for a fourth time this year, to 3.5 percent, according to all except one of 15 economists surveyed by Bloomberg. Officials will raise rates by 67 basis points during the next 12 months, according to a Credit Suisse Group AG index. That compares with a projected increase of as much as 135 basis points in March.

EUR/USD: during the Asian session, the pair is trading around the level of $1.3530

GBP/USD: during the Asian session, the pair traded in the range of $1.7080-90

USD/JPY: on Asian session the pair fell to Y101.25

With EU finance ministers meeting tomorrow in Brussels to discuss more stringent sanctions against Russia, one mitigating factor is the foreign debt that Russia has accumulated, with the latest numbers totalling around USD $730bn, with a majority borrowed from European banks. The European banking sector's troubles were further highlighted in recent weeks by Portugal's Espirito Santo and its bad debt issues.

EUR / USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.3629 (3163)

$1.3599 (856)

$1.3559 (97)

Price at time of writing this review: $ 1.3541

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.3499 (4169)

$1.3479 (2636)

$1.3452 (7706)

Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options with the expiration date August, 8 is 26011 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,3650 (3902);

- Overall open interest on the PUT options with the expiration date August, 8 is 34645 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,3500 (7706);

- The ratio of PUT/CALL was 1.33 versus 1.34 from the previous trading day according to data from July, 18

GBP/USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.7401 (1017)

$1.7301 (1308)

$1.7203 (1568)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.7096

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.6996 (2751)

$1.6898 (2071)

$1.6799 (1398)

Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options with the expiration date August, 8 is 16464 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,7250 (2415);

- Overall open interest on the PUT options with the expiration date August, 8 is 23311 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,7000 (2751);

- The ratio of PUT/CALL was 1.42 versus 1.44 from the previous trading day according to data from Jule, 18

* - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange bulletin (CME) is used for the calculation.

** - Open interest takes into account the total number of option contracts that are open at the moment.

(pare/closed(GMT +2)/change, %)

EUR/USD $1,3523 -0,02%

GBP/USD $1,7084 -0,09%

USD/CHF Chf0,8985 +0,13%

USD/JPY Y101,34 +0,19%

EUR/JPY Y137,07 +0,19%

GBP/JPY Y173,11 +0,09%

AUD/USD $0,9391 +0,48%

NZD/USD $0,8683 +0,23%

USD/CAD C$1,0731 -0,26%