Novosti i prognoe: devizno tržište od 17-07-2014

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17.07.2014
15:27
Foreign exchange market. American session: the U.S. dollar traded mixed to higher against the most major currencies after the U.S. economic data

The U.S. dollar traded mixed to higher against the most major currencies after the U.S. economic data. The number of initial jobless claims declined by 3,000 to 302,000 last week, missing expectations for a rise to 310,000.

The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia manufacturing index rose to 23.9 July from 17.8 in June. Analysts had expected the index to decline to 15.6.

Housing starts dropped 9.3% in June, to an annual rate of 893,000 units, missing expectations of 1,020,000 units, after 985,000 units in May. That was the lowest level since September 2013. May's figure was revised down from 1,001,000 units.

Building permits declined 4.3% in June, o a rate of 963,000 units, missing forecasts of 1,040,000 units, after 1,005,000 units in May. May's figure was revised up from 991,000 units.

The euro traded mixed against the U.S. dollar after Eurozone's consumer inflation. Eurozone's consumer inflation rose 0.5% in June, in line with expectations, after a 0.5% gain in May. The consumer inflation remained below the European Central Bank's 2% target. Inflation in the Eurozone has been below 1% since October 2013.

On a monthly basis, consumer price index climbed 0.1% in June, after a 0.1% decline in May.

Consumer price index excluding food, energy, alcohol, and tobacco costs climbed 0.8% in June, in line with expectations, after a 0.8% rise in May.

The British pound traded lower against the U.S. dollar in the absence of any major market reports in the UK.

The Canadian dollar traded higher against the U.S. after foreign investment data from Canada. Foreign investment in Canada climbed by C$21.43 billion in May, exceeding expectations of C$14.23 billion.

The New Zealand dollar traded lower against the U.S dollar. The U.S. dollar still supported by Tuesday's comments by the Fed Chair Janet Yellen. Yesterday's weaker-than-expected consumer inflation in New Zealand dollar also weighed on the kiwi. New Zealand's consumer price index increased 0.3% in the second quarter, missing expectations for a 0.5% rise, after a 0.3% gain in the previous quarter. Market participants speculate if the Reserve Bank of New Zealand will hike its interest rate this year.

No major economic reports were released in New Zealand.

The Australian dollar traded mixed against the U.S. dollar after the release of economic data in Australia. The National Australia Bank business confidence index declined to 6 in the second quarter from 7 in the first quarter. The first quarter's figure was revised up from 6.

The Conference Board leading index for Australia increased by 0.2% in May, after a 0.2% decrease in April. April's figure was revised down from a 0.1% fall.

The Japanese yen traded higher against the U.S. dollar due to increasing demand for safe-haven currency as the United States announced new sanctions against Russia. No major economic reports were released in Japan.

14:33
U.S. housing starts dropped 9.3% in June

The U.S. Commerce Department released housing market data on Thursday. Housing starts dropped 9.3% in June, to an annual rate of 893,000 units, missing expectations of 1,020,000 units, after 985,000 units in May. That was the lowest level since September 2013. May's figure was revised down from 1,001,000 units.

The second-straight monthly decrease was driven by a 29.6% fall in the South. Other regions posted increases.

Building permits declined 4.3% in June, o a rate of 963,000 units, missing forecasts of 1,040,000 units, after 1,005,000 units in May. May's figure was revised up from 991,000 units.

14:00
U.S.: Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey, July 23.9 (forecast 15.6)
13:45
Option expiries for today's 1400GMT cut

EUR/USD $1.3500, $1.3550, $1.3570-75, $1.3590, $1.3600, $1.3605

USD/JPY Y101.50-60, Y101.90, Y102.10, Y102.25

EUR/GBP Stg0.7910, stg0.7955

EUR/CHF Chf1.2160

AUD/USD $0.9325-35, $0.9340-50

NZD/USD NZ$0.8625

USD/CAD C$1.0770, C$1.0780, C$1.0800, C$1.0850

12:31
U.S.: Initial Jobless Claims, July 302 (forecast 310)
12:30
Canada: Foreign Securities Purchases, May 21.4 (forecast 14.23)
12:30
U.S.: Housing Starts, mln, June 0.893 (forecast 1.02)
12:30
U.S.: Building Permits, mln, June 0.963 (forecast 1.04)
12:00
Orders

EUR/USD

Offers $1.3640, $1.3590/600

Bids $1.3521-18, $1.3500, $1.3485/80

GBP/USD

Offers $1.7200

Bids $1.7055, $1.7045/40

AUD/USD

Offers $0.9450, $0.9420, $0.9400

Bids $0.9350, $0.9300

EUR/JPY

Offers Y138.50, Y138.20, Y138.00, Y137.75/80

Bids Y137.20, Y137.00, Y136.50, Y136.00

USD/JPY

Offers Y102.20, Y102.00, Y101.80

Bids Y101.20, Y101.00, Y100.80, Y100.50


EUR/GBP

Offers stg0.7980/85, stg0.7910-15

Bids stg0.7850, stg0.7800

12:00
Foreign exchange market. European session: the euro traded mixed against the U.S. dollar after Eurozone’s consumer inflation

Economic calendar (GMT0):

(Time/ Region/ Event/ Period/ Previous/ Forecast/ Actual)

00:00 Australia Conference Board Australia Leading Index May -0.1% +0.2%

01:30 Australia NAB Quarterly Business Confidence Quarter II 6 6

01:55 Australia RBA Assist Gov Edey Speaks

09:00 Eurozone Construction Output, m/m May +0.8% +0.8%

09:00 Eurozone Construction Output, y/y May +8.0% +3.5%

09:00 Eurozone Harmonized CPI June -0.1% +0.1%

09:00 Eurozone Harmonized CPI, Y/Y (Finally) June +0.5% +0.5% +0.5%

09:00 Eurozone Harmonized CPI ex EFAT, Y/Y June +0.8% +0.8% +0.8%

The U.S. dollar traded mixed to higher against the most major currencies. The U.S. currency remained supported by Tuesday's comments by the Fed Chair Janet Yellen. The Fed Chair said the economy in the U.S. is continuing to improve but the recovery is not yet complete. She added that if the labour market continues to improve more quickly, the Fed will hike its interest rate sooner than expected, but weaker conditions will mean a longer period of low interest rate.

The U.S. currency was also supported by new sanctions against Russia.

The euro traded mixed against the U.S. dollar after Eurozone's consumer inflation. Eurozone's consumer inflation rose 0.5% in June, in line with expectations, after a 0.5% gain in May. The consumer inflation remained below the European Central Bank's 2% target. Inflation in the Eurozone has been below 1% since October 2013.

On a monthly basis, consumer price index climbed 0.1% in June, after a 0.1% decline in May.

Consumer price index excluding food, energy, alcohol, and tobacco costs climbed 0.8% in June, in line with expectations, after a 0.8% rise in May.

The British pound declined against the U.S. dollar in the absence of any major market reports in the UK.

EUR/USD: the currency pair traded mixed

GBP/USD: the currency pair decreased to $1.7095

USD/JPY: the currency pair declined to Y101.39

The most important news that are expected (GMT0):

12:30 Canada Foreign Securities Purchases May 10.13 14.23

12:30 U.S. Initial Jobless Claims July 304 310

12:30 U.S. Building Permits, mln June 0.99 1.04

12:30 U.S. Housing Starts, mln June 1.00 1.02

14:00 U.S. Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey July 17.8 15.6

23:50 Japan Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

10:30
Eurozone’s final consumer inflation increased at 0.5% in June

Eurostat released consumer price index for the Eurozone today. Eurozone's consumer inflation rose 0.5% in June, in line with expectations, after a 0.5% gain in May. The consumer inflation remained below the European Central Bank's 2% target. Inflation in the Eurozone has been below 1% since October 2013.

On a monthly basis, consumer price index climbed 0.1% in June, after a 0.1% decline in May.

Consumer price index excluding food, energy, alcohol, and tobacco costs climbed 0.8% in June, in line with expectations, after a 0.8% rise in May.

Consumer prices decreased in Greece, Portugal and Slovakia in June. Only Germany, Slovenia, Finland, Luxembourg and Austria had inflation at or above 1% in June.

09:25
Option expiries for today's 1400GMT cut

EUR/USD $1.3500, $1.3550, $1.3570-75, $1.3590, $1.3600, $1.3605

USD/JPY Y101.50-60, Y101.90, Y102.10, Y102.25

EUR/GBP Stg0.7910, stg0.7955

EUR/CHF Chf1.2160

AUD/USD $0.9325-35, $0.9340-50

NZD/USD NZ$0.8625

USD/CAD C$1.0770, C$1.0780, C$1.0800, C$1.0850

09:00
Eurozone: Harmonized CPI, June +0.1%
09:00
Eurozone: Harmonized CPI, Y/Y, June +0.5% (forecast +0.5%)
09:00
Eurozone: Harmonized CPI ex EFAT, Y/Y, June +0.8% (forecast +0.8%)
09:00
Eurozone: Construction Output, m/m, May +0.8%
08:43
Foreign exchange market. Asian session: the yen traded higher against the U.S. dollar due to increasing demand for safe-haven currency as the United States announced new sanctions against Russia

Economic calendar (GMT0):

(Time/ Region/ Event/ Period/ Previous/ Forecast/ Actual)

00:00 Australia Conference Board Australia Leading Index May -0.1% +0.2%

01:30 Australia NAB Quarterly Business Confidence Quarter II 6 6

01:55 Australia RBA Assist Gov Edey Speaks

The U.S. dollar traded mixed against the most major currencies. The U.S. dollar remained supported by Tuesday's comments by the Fed Chair Janet Yellen. The Fed Chair said the economy in the U.S. is continuing to improve but the recovery is not yet complete. She added that if the labour market continues to improve more quickly, the Fed will hike its interest rate sooner than expected, but weaker conditions will mean a longer period of low interest rate.

The New Zealand dollar traded lower against the U.S dollar. The U.S. dollar still supported by Tuesday's comments by the Fed Chair Janet Yellen. Yesterday's weaker-than-expected consumer inflation in New Zealand dollar also weighed on the kiwi. New Zealand's consumer price index increased 0.3% in the second quarter, missing expectations for a 0.5% rise, after a 0.3% gain in the previous quarter. Market participants speculate if the Reserve Bank of New Zealand will hike its interest rate this year.

No major economic reports were released in New Zealand.

The Australian dollar traded mixed against the U.S. dollar after the release of economic data in Australia. The National Australia Bank business confidence index declined to 6 in the second quarter from 7 in the first quarter. The first quarter's figure was revised up from 6.

The Conference Board leading index for Australia increased by 0.2% in May, after a 0.2% decrease in April. April's figure was revised down from a 0.1% fall.

The Japanese yen traded higher against the U.S. dollar due to increasing demand for safe-haven currency as the United States announced new sanctions against Russia. No major economic reports were released in Japan.

EUR/USD: the currency pair traded mixed

GBP/USD: the currency pair traded mixed

USD/JPY: the currency pair declined to Y101.45

The most important news that are expected (GMT0):

09:00 Eurozone Harmonized CPI June -0.1%

09:00 Eurozone Harmonized CPI, Y/Y (Finally) June +0.5% +0.5%

09:00 Eurozone Harmonized CPI ex EFAT, Y/Y June +0.8% +0.8%

12:30 Canada Foreign Securities Purchases May 10.13 14.23

12:30 U.S. Initial Jobless Claims July 304 310

12:30 U.S. Building Permits, mln June 0.99 1.04

12:30 U.S. Housing Starts, mln June 1.00 1.02

14:00 U.S. Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey July 17.8 15.6

23:50 Japan Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

05:26
Options levels on thursday, July 17, 2014:

EUR / USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.3633 (3110)

$1.3604 (692)

$1.3564 (76)

Price at time of writing this review: $ 1.3523

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.3507 (1916)

$1.3493 (4182)

$1.3472 (2596)

Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options with the expiration date August, 8 is 25553 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,3650 (3672);

- Overall open interest on the PUT options with the expiration date August, 8 is 34183 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,3500 (7611);

- The ratio of PUT/CALL was 1.34 versus 1.36 from the previous trading day according to data from July, 16

GBP/USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.7401 (1025)

$1.7302 (1277)

$1.7205 (1470)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.7138

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.7093 (2170)

$1.6996 (2450)

$1.6898 (2003)

Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options with the expiration date August, 8 is 15913 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,7250 (2196);

- Overall open interest on the PUT options with the expiration date August, 8 is 22399 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,7000 (2450);

- The ratio of PUT/CALL was 1.41 versus 1.36 from the previous trading day according to data from Jule, 16

* - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange bulletin (CME) is used for the calculation.

** - Open interest takes into account the total number of option contracts that are open at the moment.

01:30
Australia: NAB Quarterly Business Confidence, Quarter II 6
00:21
Currencies. Daily history for Jule 16'2014:

(pare/closed(GMT +2)/change, %)

EUR/USD $1,3525 -0,31%

GBP/USD $1,7136 -0,03%

USD/CHF Chf0,8981 +0,28%

USD/JPY Y101,65 -0,03%

EUR/JPY Y137,49 -0,33%

GBP/JPY Y174,19 -0,05%

AUD/USD $0,9361 -0,06%

NZD/USD $0,8711 -0,57%

USD/CAD C$1,0743 -0,11%

00:01
Australia: Conference Board Australia Leading Index, May +0.2%
00:00
Schedule for today, Thursday, Jule 17’2014:

(time / country / index / period / previous value / forecast)

03:00 Australia Conference Board Australia Leading Index May -0.1%

04:30 Australia NAB Quarterly Business Confidence Quarter II 6

04:55 Australia RBA Assist Gov Edey Speaks

12:00 Eurozone Construction Output, m/m May +0.8%

12:00 Eurozone Construction Output, y/y May +8.0%

12:00 Eurozone Harmonized CPI June -0.1%

12:00 Eurozone Harmonized CPI, Y/Y June +0.5% +0.5%

12:00 Eurozone Harmonized CPI ex EFAT, Y/Y June +0.8% +0.8%

15:30 Canada Foreign Securities Purchases May 10.13 14.23

15:30 U.S. Initial Jobless Claims July 304 310

15:30 U.S. Building Permits, mln June 0.99 1.04

15:30 U.S. Housing Starts, mln June 1.00 1.02

17:00 U.S. Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey July 17.8 15.6

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