Novosti i prognoe: devizno tržište od 22-12-2014

(time / country / index / period / previous value / forecast)

00:00 Japan Bank holiday

02:00 China Leading Index November +0.9%

07:45 France Consumer spending November -0.9% +0.2%

07:45 France Consumer spending, y/y November -0.2%

07:45 France GDP, q/q (Finally) Quarter III -0.1% +0.3%

07:45 France GDP, Y/Y (Finally) Quarter III +0.8%

09:30 United Kingdom Current account, bln Quarter III -23.1 -21.1

09:30 United Kingdom BBA Mortgage Approvals November 37.1 37.3

09:30 United Kingdom GDP, q/q (Finally) Quarter III +0.7% +0.7%

09:30 United Kingdom GDP, y/y (Finally) Quarter III +3.0% +3.0%

09:30 United Kingdom Business Investment, q/q (Finally) Quarter III -0.7% -0.7%

09:30 United Kingdom Business Investment, y/y (Finally) Quarter III +6.3% +6.3%

13:30 Canada GDP (m/m) October +0.4% +0.1%

13:30 U.S. PCE price index, q/q Quarter III +2.2%

13:30 U.S. PCE price index ex food, energy, q/q Quarter III +1.4%

13:30 U.S. Durable Goods Orders November +0.3% Revised From +0.4% +3.0%

13:30 U.S. Durable Goods Orders ex Transportation November -1.1% Revised From -0.9% +1.1%

13:30 U.S. Durable goods orders ex defense November -0.6%

13:30 U.S. GDP, q/q (Finally) Quarter III +3.9% +4.3%

14:00 Belgium Business Climate December -6.1 -5.8

14:00 U.S. Housing Price Index, m/m November 0.0% +0.3%

14:00 U.S. Housing Price Index, y/y November +4.3%

14:55 U.S. Reuters/Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (Finally) December 93.8 93.5

15:00 U.S. Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index December 4 8

15:00 U.S. New Home Sales November 458 461

15:00 U.S. Personal Income, m/m November +0.2% +0.6%

15:00 U.S. Personal spending November +0.2% +0.5%

15:00 U.S. PCE price index ex food, energy, m/m November +0.2% +0.1%

15:00 U.S. PCE price index ex food, energy, Y/Y November +1.6%

21:30 U.S. API Crude Oil Inventories December +1.9

23:00 Australia Conference Board Australia Leading Index October -0.3%

EUR/USD: $1.2250(E400mn), $1.2300(E440mn), $1.2400(E409mn), $1.2450(E1.5bn)

USD/JPY: Y118.50($1.4bn), Y119.50($2.55bn)

EUR/GBP: stg0.7870(E200mn)

USD/CHF: Chf0.9650($200mn)

NZD/USD: $0.7680(NZ$300mn)

USD/CAD: C$1.1500($2.0bn)

EUR/USD

Offers $1.2380, $1.2340-50, $1.2305/00

Bids $1.2220, $1.2200

GBP/USD

Offers $1.5800, $1.5785, $1.5700

Bids $1.5585, $1.5540

AUD/USD

Offers $0.8300, $0.8250, $0.8200

Bids $0.8100, $0.8050, $0.8000

EUR/JPY

Offers Y148.50, Y148.00, Y147.50, Y147.00

Bids Y146.00, Y145.50, Y145.00

USD/JPY

Offers Y121.20, Y121.00, Y120.50, Y120.00

Bids Y119.00, Y118.50, Y118.00

EUR/GBP

Offers stg0.7950/55, stg0.7900, stg0.7880/85, stg0.7860

Bids stg0.7800, stg0.7700

EUR/USD: $1.2250(E400mn), $1.2300(E440mn), $1.2400(E409mn), $1.2450(E1.5bn)

USD/JPY: Y118.50($1.4bn), Y119.50($2.55bn)

EUR/GBP: stg0.7870(E200mn)

USD/CHF: Chf0.9650($200mn)

NZD/USD: $0.7680(NZ$300mn)

USD/CAD: C$1.1500($2.0bn)

BLOOMBERG
Draghi Starts Squaring QE Circle in Month of Persuasion

Mario Draghi has one month to win consensus on quantitative easing by showing he won't endanger the ECB.

As officials prepare to consider sovereign-bond purchases on Jan. 22, the ECB president is working to get as many policy makers and as much of the public on his side as possible. One concession being debated is to require national central banks to be responsible for at least some of their own credit risk, according to people familiar with the talks.

Source: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-12-22/draghi-starts-squaring-qe-circle-in-month-of-persuasion-for-ecb.html

BLOOMBERG

Putin's Secret Gamble on Reserves Backfires Into Currency Crisis

Kremlin insiders gathered in secret last February to answer a crucial question for Vladimir Putin: Could Russia afford the economic blowback from taking over Crimea?

Moscow said yes.

Markets aren't so sure.

As President Putin exulted at the Winter Olympics in Sochi 10 months ago, aides assured him Russia was rich enough to withstand the financial repercussions from a possible incursion into Ukraine, according to two officials involved in the talks.

Source: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-12-17/putin-s-secret-gamble-bet-on-ukraine-backfires-in-ruble-crisis.html

REUTERS
Euro edges up, still shaky on ECB and Greece

(Reuters) - The euro bounced back from two-year lows against a slightly weaker dollar on Monday, with Greece's presidential election and a batch of U.S. data on Tuesday the chief risks to a calmer holiday mood.

The Australian dollar, up 0.3 percent, was the chief beneficiary of a recovery in oil prices that has seen Brent Crude move almost 7 percent higher from last week's more than five-year lows.

The outlook into 2015 for the euro looks weak, with Luc Coene the latest European Central Bank policymaker to point the way towards outright buying of government bonds to stimulate a still moribund euro zone economy.

Source: http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/12/22/us-markets-forex-idUSKBN0K000720141222

(Time/ Region/ Event/ Period/ Previous/ Forecast/ Actual

05:00 Japan BoJ monthly economic report

The greenback traded weaker against its major peers in Asian trade but continues to be supported by the FED's decision not to raise interest rates before April 2015 while other major countries are likely to maintain monetary stimulus. The U.S. dollar lost against the euro after rising to USD1.2219, the highest since August 2012. Today markets await data on Eurozone's Consumer Confidence and U.S. Existing Home Sales.

The Australian dollar booked gains against the U.S. dollar after last week's slump on Wednesday with new lows at USD0.8106, the weakest since 2010.

New Zealand's dollar lost against the greenback for a second day after the Westpac Consumer Sentiment declined from 116.7 to 114.8 in the fourth quarter. Markets await publication of New Zealand's Trade Balance due 21:45 GMT.

The Japanese yen traded slightly weaker during the Asian session after Bank of Japan's monthly economic report and before tomorrow's bank holiday.

EUR/USD: the euro added against the greenback

The most important news that are expected (GMT0):

(time / country / index / period / previous value / forecast)

15:00 Eurozone Consumer Confidence December -12 -11

15:00 U.S. Existing Home Sales November 5.26 5.21

21:45 New Zealand Trade Balance, mln November -908 -550

EUR / USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.2345 (716)

$1.2305 (297)

$1.2267 (213)

Price at time of writing this review: $ 1.2253

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.2198 (2261)

$1.2164 (6976)

$1.2140 (2893)

Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options with the expiration date January, 9 is 53086 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,2500 (6374);

- Overall open interest on the PUT options with the expiration date January, 9 is 61261 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,2000 (7360);

- The ratio of PUT/CALL was 1.16 versus 1.18 from the previous trading day according to data from December, 19

GBP/USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.5901 (2044)

$1.5803 (2115)

$1.5706 (2450)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.5647

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.5591 (955)

$1.5495 (1691)

$1.5397 (898)

Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options with the expiration date January, 9 is 23776 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,5850 (4125);

- Overall open interest on the PUT options with the expiration date January, 9 is 19171 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,5550 (1939);

- The ratio of PUT/CALL was 0.81 versus 0.78 from the previous trading day according to data from December, 19

* - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange bulletin (CME) is used for the calculation.

** - Open interest takes into account the total number of option contracts that are open at the moment.