Novosti i prognoe: devizno tržište od 23-12-2014

EUR/USD

Offers $1.2380, $1.2340-50, $1.2305/00

Bids $1.2215, $1.2200

GBP/USD

Offers $1.5800, $1.5785, $1.5700, $1.5630

Offers $1.5500

AUD/USD

Offers $0.8300, $0.8250, $0.8200

Offers $0.8090, $0.8050, $0.8000

EUR/JPY

Offers Y148.50, Y148.00, Y147.50

Offers Y146.00, Y145.50, Y145.00

USD/JPY

Offers Y121.20, Y121.00, Y120.50

Offers Y119.00, Y118.50, Y118.25, Y118.00

EUR/GBP

Offers stg0.7950/55, stg0.7900, stg0.7880/85, stg0.7860

Offers stg0.7800, stg0.7700

EUR/USD: $1.2200(E708mn), $1.2230(E540mn), $1.2300(E1.3bn), $1.2320(E590mn)

USD/JPY: Y119.00($380mn), Y119.50($280mn), Y120.00($528mn)

GBP/USD: $1.5600(stg1.3bn)

EUR/GBP: stg0.7850(E175mn), stg0.7920(E277mn)

USD/CHF: Chf0.9800($800mn)

AUD/USD: $0.8250(A$1.5bn)

NZD/USD: $0.7800(NZ$1.8bn)

USD/CAD: C$1.1545($482mn)

REUTERS
Australian dollar hits 4-1/2-year low on China growth worries

(Reuters) - The Australian dollar hit a 4-1/2-year trough against its U.S. counterpart on Tuesday as prices of iron for construction fell in China amid weak demand from the property sector and after Australia's premier warned of heightened "terrorist chatter".

Following the siege in a Sydney cafe a week ago, Australian Prime Minister Tony Abbott said the public must remain alert as the country headed into Christmas and New Year celebrations, helping to prod lower an Aussie dollar already weakened by the data from China.

Source: http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/12/23/us-markets-forex-idUSKBN0K000720141223

BLOOMBERG

Greek Drama Draws Market Scrutiny as ECB Impact Weighed

Intraday volatility on the Greek ASE Index (ASE) and the broader Stoxx Europe 600 Index surged to double their annual average last week after Prime Minster Antonis Samaras failed to win two-thirds support in parliament for his candidate to succeed President Karolos Papoulias. A second of three potential ballots is scheduled for today at noon. Greece's benchmark stock gauge dropped 1.8 percent at 11:04 a.m. in Athens today.

Anxiety that voters will kick out leaders committed to Greece's bailout wreaked havoc on equities earlier this month, sending the ASE down 20 percent for its biggest weekly slump since 1987. The losses followed Samaras's decision to seek parliamentary support for candidate Stavros Dimas, a procedure that may end up spurring national elections. Losing would empower Syriza, the opposition party that seeks a writedown on Greek debt held by the European Central Bank and others.

Source: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-12-23/greek-drama-draws-market-scrutiny-as-ecb-impact-weighed.html

BLOOMBERG

Ukraine Cuts Gold Reserve to Nine-Year Low as Russia Buys

Ukraine reduced gold reserves for a second month to the lowest since August 2005 as Russia bought bullion for an eighth month to take its holdings to the highest in at least two decades, according to the International Monetary Fund.

Ukraine's holdings fell to 23.6 metric tons in November from 26.1 tons in October, data on the IMF's website showed. Reserves in Russia climbed to about 1,187.5 tons in November from 1,168.7 tons a month earlier, according to the data.

Source: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-12-23/ukraine-cuts-gold-reserve-to-nine-year-low-as-russia-buys.html

Time/ Region/ Event/ Period/ Previous/ Forecast/ Actual

00:00 Japan Bank holiday

02:00 China Leading Index November +0.8% +0.9%

The greenback traded stronger against its major peers in Asian trade and continues to be supported by the FED's decision not to raise interest rates before April 2015 while other major countries are likely to maintain monetary stimulus. After yesterday's disappointing data on Existing Home Sales markets await a rush of U.S. data today. Analysts expect strong data further fuelling the U.S. dollar's climb. Third quarters GDP is expected to be revised up resulting in an annualized economic growth above 4% further highlighting the diverging economic and policy outlooks between the U.S. and Europe and Japan.

The Australian dollar continued its fall against the U.S. dollar currently trading at USD0.8103 with new lows at USD0.8087, the weakest since 2010 as falling commodity prices weigh on the nations growth outlook. Iron ore is trading close to 5-1/2 year lows. Markets await the Australian Leading Index being published late today at 23:00 GMT.

New Zealand's dollar lost against the greenback for a third. New Zealand's Trade Balance for November showed a reading of -213 compared to forecasts of -550.

The Japanese yen traded weaker during the Asian session back around USD120 reaching a new two-week low but still short of its 7-½ year low set earlier this month . Today there is a holiday in Japan.

EUR/USD: the euro added small gains against the greenback

USD/JPY: the U.S. dollar traded stronger against the yen

GPB/USD: The British pound lost against the U.S. dollar

The most important news that are expected (GMT0):

(time / country / index / period / previous value / forecast)

07:45 France Consumer spending November -0.9% +0.2%

07:45 France Consumer spending, y/y November -0.2%

07:45 France GDP, q/q (Finally) Quarter III -0.1% +0.3%

07:45 France GDP, Y/Y (Finally) Quarter III +0.8%

09:30 United Kingdom Current account, bln Quarter III -23.1 -21.1

09:30 United Kingdom BBA Mortgage Approvals November 37.1 37.3

09:30 United Kingdom GDP, q/q (Finally) Quarter III +0.7% +0.7%

09:30 United Kingdom GDP, y/y (Finally) Quarter III +3.0% +3.0%

09:30 United Kingdom Business Investment, q/q (Finally) Quarter III -0.7% -0.7%

09:30 United Kingdom Business Investment, y/y (Finally) Quarter III +6.3% +6.3%

13:30 Canada GDP (m/m) October +0.4% +0.1%

13:30 U.S. PCE price index, q/q Quarter III +2.2%

13:30 U.S. PCE price index ex food, energy, q/q Quarter III +1.4%

13:30 U.S. Durable Goods Orders November +0.3% Revised From +0.4% +3.0%

13:30 U.S. Durable Goods Orders ex Transportation November -1.1% Revised From -0.9% +1.1%

13:30 U.S. Durable goods orders ex defense November -0.6%

13:30 U.S. GDP, q/q (Finally) Quarter III +3.9% +4.3%

14:00 Belgium Business Climate December -6.1 -5.8

14:00 U.S. Housing Price Index, m/m November 0.0% +0.3%

14:00 U.S. Housing Price Index, y/y November +4.3%

14:55 U.S. Reuters/Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (Finally) December 93.8 93.5

15:00 U.S. Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index December 4 8

15:00 U.S. New Home Sales November 458 461

15:00 U.S. Personal Income, m/m November +0.2% +0.6%

15:00 U.S. Personal spending November +0.2% +0.5%

15:00 U.S. PCE price index ex food, energy, m/m November +0.2% +0.1%

15:00 U.S. PCE price index ex food, energy, Y/Y November +1.6%

21:30 U.S. API Crude Oil Inventories December +1.9

23:00 Australia Conference Board Australia Leading Index October -0.3%

EUR / USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.2368 (2029)

$1.2317 (352)

$1.2268 (210)

Price at time of writing this review: $ 1.2229

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.2195 (2264)

$1.2162 (6132)

$1.2140 (2862)

Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options with the expiration date January, 9 is 55296 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,2500 (6347);

- Overall open interest on the PUT options with the expiration date January, 9 is 60467 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,2000 (6871);

- The ratio of PUT/CALL was 1.09 versus 1.16 from the previous trading day according to data from December, 22

GBP/USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.5901 (2075)

$1.5802 (2142)

$1.5705 (2440)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.5585

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.5494 (1686)

$1.5396 (897)

$1.5298 (1227)

Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options with the expiration date January, 9 is 24126 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,5850 (4278);

- Overall open interest on the PUT options with the expiration date January, 9 is 19300 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,5550 (1965);

- The ratio of PUT/CALL was 0.80 versus 0.81 from the previous trading day according to data from December, 22

* - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange bulletin (CME) is used for the calculation.

** - Open interest takes into account the total number of option contracts that are open at the moment.