Novosti i prognoe: devizno tržište od 24-12-2013

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24.12.2013
15:00
U.S.: New Home Sales, November 464 (forecast 449)
14:59
U.S.: Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index, December 13 (forecast 15)
14:01
U.S.: Housing Price Index, y/y, October +8.2%
14:00
U.S.: Housing Price Index, m/m, October +0.5% (forecast +0.5%)
13:45
Option expiries for today's 1400GMT cut

USD/JPY Y102.00, Y103.00, Y103.90, Y104.00/05, Y104.70/75, Y105.00

EUR/USD $1.3650, $1.3675, $1.3700, $1.3750, $1.3800

USD/CAD Cad1.0535, Cad1.0540/45, Cad1.0550, Cad1.0570

13:31
U.S.: Durable goods orders ex defense, November +3.5%
13:30
U.S.: Durable Goods Orders ex Transportation , November +1.2% (forecast +0.9%)
13:30
U.S.: Durable Goods Orders , November +3.5% (forecast +1.7%)
13:15
European session: the euro fell slightly against the U.S. dollar

Data

05:00 Japan Monthly Economic Report Bank of Japan in December

7:45 France Consumer spending in November -0.2% +0.3% +1.4%

7:45 France Consumer Spending y / y in November -0.1 % -0.1 % +1.5 %

7:45 France GDP q / q ( final data ) III m -0.1 % -0.1 % -0.1 %

7:45 France GDP y / y (final ) III m +0.2% +0.2% +0.2%

09:30 UK approved applications for mortgage loans as BBA, th November 42.8 44.5 45.0


The dollar rose slightly against the euro, on the eve of the release of statistics on the volume of orders for durable goods in the United States. According to the median forecast of economists , the November figure to grow by 1.7 %, whereas in the previous month , it fell by 2%. Recall that yesterday 's report showed that U.S. consumer spending rose in November, the largest in the last five months , thereby complementing the recent series of strong data pointing to a sustained U.S. economic recovery. This set of positive data justifies the Fed's recent actions aimed at reducing monthly bond purchases since January .

Meanwhile, we add that the course of trade is also affected data on the GDP of France . As it became known , the French economy shrank by 0.1 percent in the third quarter, and confirmed the initial assessment, and being in line with economists' forecasts . Reported by the Statistical Office of Insee.

Nevertheless, it is worth noting that Statistics revised slightly upward GDP growth for the second quarter - to the level of 0.6 per cent compared with the previous estimate at around 0.5 percent. The data also showed that the annualized gross domestic product grew in the third quarter by 0.2 percent , which was in line with expectations of experts , as well as equal to the initial assessment .

Pound rose against the dollar , recovering with almost all previously lost ground, which has helped to publish a report on Britain. The data , which were presented by the British Bankers Association showed that the number of mortgage approvals in the UK has increased markedly in the last month , while reaching the highest level since December 2009 , but, despite this, remained well below the levels that were observed to the financial crisis.

According to the report , the number of approved applications for mortgage loans, which is a reliable indicator of future housing market has risen in the past month, 45,044 units, compared to the upwardly revised figure for the previous month at 43,315 units (initially reported 42.8 thousand). It is worth noting that according to the average forecasts of experts, this indicator would grow by 44.5 thousand


EUR / USD: during the European session, the pair fell to $ 1.3670

GBP / USD: during the European session, the pair fell to $ 1.6320 , but then returned to the area of ​​$ 1.6345/50

USD / JPY: during the European session, the pair fell Y103.77, then recovered slightly


At 13:30 GMT the United States to declare changes in orders for durable goods in November. At 15:00 GMT the U.S. will report on sales in the primary market in November.

13:00
Orders

EUR/USD

Offers $1.3800, $1.3770/80, $1.3750, $1.3730, $1.3700

Bids $1.3650, $1.3620, $1.3600, $1.3590


GBP/USD

Offers $1.6480, $1.6450, $1.6410, $1.6390/400, $1.6375/80

Bids $1.6325/20, $1.6300, $1.6295/90, $1.6280/75


AUD/USD

Offers $0.9050, $0.9020, $0.9000, $0.8980/90, $0.8955/60

Bids $0.8900, $0.8880, $0.8855/50, $0.8825/20, $0.8800, $0.8780


EUR/JPY

Offers Y144.00, Y143.80, Y143.50, Y143.20, Y143.00

Bids Y142.50, Y142.05/00, Y141.80/60, Y141.50, Y141.25/20


USD/JPY

Offers Y105.00, Y104.80, Y104.75, Y104.50

Bids Y104.00, Y103.80/75, Y103.65/60, Y103.50


EUR/GBP

Offers stg0.8480, stg0.8467, stg0.8435/40, stg0.8415/20, stg0.8400, stg0.8380/85

Bids stg0.8350, stg0.8330/20, stg0.8300/290, stg0.8260/50, stg0.8250


09:56
Option expiries for today's 1400GMT cut

USD/JPY Y102.00, Y103.00, Y103.90, Y104.00, Y104.75

EUR/USD $1.3650, $1.3700, $1.3750, $1.3800

09:30
United Kingdom: BBA Mortgage Approvals, November 45.0 (forecast 44.5)
07:47
France: Consumer spending , November +1.4% (forecast +0.3%)
07:46
France: GDP, q/q, Quarter III -0.1% (forecast -0.1%)
06:59
Asian session: The dollar rose

05:00 Japan BoJ monthly economic report December


The dollar rose toward a five-year high against the yen as traders bet on a divergence in monetary policy with the U.S. Federal Reserve paring stimulus while the Bank of Japan continues unprecedented easing. The Fed said Dec. 18 it plans to cut monthly bond purchases in January to $75 billion from $85 billion, while reinforcing its assurance that interest rates will remain low for an extended period. Policy makers will probably reduce bond purchases in $10 billion increments over the next seven meetings before ending the program in December 2014, economists said in a Bloomberg poll.

In Japan, the central bank is buying more than 7 trillion yen ($67.1 billion) in government bonds each month in an effort to end 15 years of deflation. BOJ officials see significant scope to boost bond purchases if necessary to achieve their 2 percent inflation target, according to people familiar with the discussions.

The yen fell against all but one of its 16 major counterparts as the Nikkei 225 (NKY) Stock Index topped 16,000 for the first time since 2007 and China conducted operations to ease a cash crunch, cutting demand for Japan’s currency as a haven.

U.S. orders for durable goods probably rebounded in November, according to the median estimate of economists surveyed by Bloomberg News before today’s Commerce Department data.

Australia’s dollar fell against the greenback for the first time in four days.


EUR / USD: during the Asian session the pair fell to $ 1.3675

GBP / USD: during the Asian session, the pair traded in the range of $ 1.6330-55

USD / JPY: during the Asian session, the pair rose to Y104.40


06:17
Currencies. Daily history for Dec 23'2013:

(pare/closed(00:00 GMT +02:00)/change, %)

EUR/USD $1,3695 +0,11%

GBP/USD $1,6354 +0,09%

USD/CHF Chf0,8938 -0,16%

USD/JPY Y104,09 +0,03%

EUR/JPY Y142,56 +0,15%

GBP/JPY Y170,24 +0,14%

AUD/USD $0,8932 +0,10%

NZD/USD $0,8198 +0,02%

USD/CAD C$1,0609 -0,35%

06:01
Schedule for today, Tuesday, Dec 24’2013:

05:00 Japan BoJ monthly economic report December

06:00 Germany Bank holiday

07:45 France Consumer spending November -0.2% +0.3%

07:45 France Consumer spending, y/y November -0.1% -0.1%

07:45 France GDP, q/q (Finally) Quarter III -0.1% -0.1%

07:45 France GDP, Y/Y (Finally) Quarter III +0.2% +0.2%

09:30 United Kingdom BBA Mortgage Approvals November 42.8 44.5

13:30 U.S. Durable Goods Orders November -2.0% +1.7%

13:30 U.S. Durable Goods Orders ex Transportation November -0.1% +0.9%

13:30 U.S. Durable goods orders ex defense November -1.3%

14:00 U.S. Housing Price Index, m/m October +0.3% +0.5%

14:00 U.S. Housing Price Index, y/y October +8.5%

15:00 U.S. Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index December 13 15

15:00 U.S. New Home Sales November 444 449

23:50 Japan CSPI, y/y November +0.8% +0.8%

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