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Novosti i prognoe: devizno tržište od 25-04-2013
The euro exchange rate has weakened considerably against most major currencies on speculation that the European Central Bank cut its key interest rate to a record low next week, thus supporting the region's economy. Note that analysts began to predict a decline in May, after the data on the activities of the areas of production and services in April pointed to the weakness of economic growth. Officials of the Monetary Policy Committee of the European Central Bank have also indicated that they may consider lowering rates at the conference, which will take place on May 2. The President Mario Draghi said back on April 19, he did not see any improvement on economic data, hinting that it could reduce the cost of borrowing, if the recovery falters housekeeper.
Executive Board member Joerg Asmussen said the rates may be reduced if the data show that the need arise, and his colleague Vitor Constancio said yesterday that the ECB is "ready to act." Add that Nomura economists now suggests that the ECB will reduce the 2 May its key rate to 0.5 percent from 0.75, while the previously forecasted decline in June. JPMorgan also changed their forecasts, and financial institutions such as Commerzbank AG, UBS, RBS, Rabobank International and ABN AMRO Bank NV also predict a decrease in rates in May.
The British pound rose significantly, aided by the British publication of the data. Note that today's report on UK GDP for Q1 showed that the UK economy managed to avoid the dreaded "triple" recession, while showing a growth rate of 0.3%, which was above the average analyst forecast of 0.1%. The reason for the unexpected growth of the economy was the services sector, which expanded at a 0.6%, while the strongest sectors were transport and communications (1.4%), which is completely at odds with reports that bad weather had violated distribution channels. We add that the Bank of England is now in a more comfortable situation at the persistence of the current monetary policy at its next meeting in two weeks, but the markets have already received a hint that this might happen, after yesterday's announcement about the growth of the program funding banking sector has pointed out that the Bank of England will delay the expansion of quantitative easing and direct its resources on targeted policies aimed at expanding credit channels.
The Japanese yen rose against the dollar. Note that a new wave of rising yen threatened the mark of 99.00. In the light of future events in Japan - the inflation report and the meeting of the Central Bank, analysts note that the data will point to the problem faced by the Bank of Japan announced at the meeting that tomorrow. It is unlikely that the Central Bank will be decided on the new measures, but the monetary authorities can update their inflation forecasts. It should be taken as a signal. In anticipation of the success of its program, the Bank of Japan may raise its forecast for the 2014 fiscal year to 1.5%, while expectations for 2015 could rise to 2%.
The Canadian dollar reached its highest level in more than a week against the U.S. dollar after data showed that the UK economy could avoid a reduction in the first quarter, sparking interest in riskier assets. Currency also strengthened against most of its major against the fact that the U.S. Labor Department reported that the number of Americans who first applied for unemployment benefits fell last week to near five-year low, which is a sign that employers are seeing increased demand may increase the number of employment. According to the report, for the week ended April 20, the number of initial claims for unemployment benefits fell to a seasonally adjusted 16,000, reaching 339,000 at the same level. Note that this was the lowest level since early March, and the second lowest since January 2008. According to the average forecasts of experts, the value of this index was to remain unchanged at 352 thousand, which was originally reported in the previous review. Also worth noting is that the value for the previous week was revised upward to the level of 355 thousand Moreover, the data showed that the average number of initial claims for the past four weeks fell by 4,500 to 357,500. Economists note that the submitted report is a sign that the labor market is steadily, albeit slowly progressing. As a general rule, reducing the amount of benefits means that employers cut fewer number of workers, and possibly hire more.
EUR/USD $1.3000, $1.3010
USD/JPY Y98.50, Y99.00, Y99.60, Y100.00
EUR/JPY Y130.00
GBP/USD $1.5400, $1.5450
EUR/GBP stg0.8500, stg0.8560, stg0.8620
AUD/USD $1.0200
AUD/NZD N$1.2100
Data
00:00 Australia Bank holiday
00:00 New Zealand Bank holiday
08:30 United Kingdom GDP, q/q (Preliminary) Quarter I -0.3% +0.1% +0.3%
08:30 United Kingdom GDP, y/y (Preliminary) Quarter I +0.2% +0.4% +0.6%
The euro rose against the dollar, as the desire for risk in the markets stimulates the growth of the pair with the absence of the key drivers in the eurozone. Note that the dynamics of the trade is also affected by the fact that many market participants are waiting for a weekly report on the U.S. labor market, although it is unlikely to have a significant impact on the markets. In addition, we note that today German Chancellor Merkel expressed the desire that the holders of bank shares also took some of the responsibility for the future, and said that as long as the government does not approve of the general deposit insurance system. She also said that the rate increase would help Germany. The head of the Supreme Committee of Finland said that the euro will survive if Cyprus will leave the euro zone, and also rejected the chance of introducing rules of financial transactions in the euro area. The IMF Lipton and head of PIMCO suggested that the ECB may continue to soften policy.
The British pound rose significantly, aided by the British publication of the data. Note that today's report on UK GDP for Q1 showed that the UK economy managed to avoid the dreaded "triple" recession, while showing a growth rate of 0.3%, which was above the average analyst forecast of 0.1%. The reason for the unexpected growth of the economy was the services sector, which expanded at a 0.6%, while the strongest sectors were transport and communications (1.4%), which is completely at odds with reports that bad weather had violated distribution channels. We add that the Bank of England is now in a more comfortable situation at the persistence of the current monetary policy at its next meeting in two weeks, but the markets have already received a hint that this might happen, after yesterday's announcement about the growth of the program funding banking sector has pointed out that the Bank of England will delay the expansion of quantitative easing and direct its resources on targeted policies aimed at expanding credit channels.
The Japanese yen rose against the dollar. Note that a new wave of rising yen threatened the mark of 99.00. In the light of future events in Japan - the inflation report and the meeting of the Central Bank, analysts note that the data will point to the problem faced by the Bank of Japan announced at the meeting that tomorrow. It is unlikely that the Central Bank will be decided on the new measures, but the monetary authorities can update their inflation forecasts. It should be taken as a signal. In anticipation of the success of its program, the Bank of Japan may raise its forecast for the 2014 fiscal year to 1.5%, while expectations for 2015 could rise to 2%.
EUR / USD: during the European session, the pair rose to $ 1.3090
GBP / USD: during the European session, the pair rose to $ 1.5474
USD / JPY: during the European session, the pair fell to Y98.95
At 12:30 GMT the United States will number of initial claims for unemployment benefits and the number of continuing claims for unemployment benefits. At 22:45 GMT New Zealand will release the trade balance (for 12 months, from the beginning of the year) and the trade balance for March. At 23:30 GMT Japan will report on the consumer price index Tokyo, including excluding prices for fresh food, food and energy prices in April, as well as the consumer price index, including excluding prices for fresh food, food and energy in March.
EUR/USD
Offers $1.3170/80, $1.3150, $1.3115/30, $1.3100, $1.3080/85
Bids $1.3000, $1.2985/75, $1.2950/40
GBP/USD
Offers $1.5510/20, $1.5490/500, $1.5470/75, $1.5450
Bids $1.5410/00, $1.5380, $1.5365/60, $1.5320
AUD/USD
Offers $1.0395/00, $1.0380, $1.0355/60, $1.0345/50
Bids $1.0275/70, $1.0250, $1.0220/10, $1.0200, $1.0185/80
EUR/GBP
Offers stg0.8630/40, stg0.8610/15, stg0.8600, stg0.8580/85, stg0.8530/35
Bids stg0.8450
EUR/JPY
Offers Y131.00, Y130.45/50, Y130.20/25, Y130.00
Bids Y129.00, Y128.85/80, Y128.50, Y128.00
USD/JPY
Offers Y100.00, Y99.55/60, Y99.50
Bids Y99.00, Y98.50
EUR/USD $1.3000, $1.3010
USD/JPY Y98.50, Y99.00, Y99.60, Y100.00
EUR/JPY Y130.00
GBP/USD $1.5400, $1.5450
EUR/GBP stg0.8500, stg0.8560, stg0.8620
AUD/USD $1.0200
AUD/NZD N$1.2100
00:00 Australia Bank
holiday
00:00 New Zealand Bank holiday
The pound rose against all but one of its 16 most-traded counterparts before a report forecast to show the U.K economy avoided a triple-dip recession. The U.K. economy grew 0.1 percent in the first quarter after contracting 0.3 percent in the preceding three-month period, according to the median estimate of economists in a Bloomberg News survey before the figure is released today.
The pound gained for a fourth day against the euro amid growing expectations the European Central Bank will cut borrowing costs as early as next week, while Bank of England policy makers remain split on the need to provide more economic stimulus through so-called quantitative easing. The ECB will cut its key interest rate, already at a record low 0.75 percent, at its May 2 meeting as the euro-region economy slumps, banks including Nomura International Plc, UBS AG (UBSN) and Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc (RBS) predict.
Spain's unemployment rate probably reached a record high of 26.5 percent in the first quarter, according to the median estimate in a separate Bloomberg survey ahead of the report today. It was an unprecedented 26 percent in the fourth quarter.
The yen fell against most peers after a report showed Japanese investors were net sellers of foreign bonds for a sixth-straight week. Japanese investors sold a net 862.6 billion yen ($8.7 billion) in overseas bonds and notes and sold 45.2 billion yen in overseas short-term securities during the week ended April 19, the Ministry of Finance announced today.
New Zealand's kiwi dollar climbed. Financial markets in Australia and New Zealand are closed today for national holidays.
EUR / USD: during the Asian session the pair rose to $ 1.3060
GBP / USD: during the Asian session the pair rose to $ 1.5335.
USD / JPY: during the Asian session the pair fell to Y99.30.
A light EZ data calendar today, though several speakers could provide headline risk. Recent German PMI and Ifo data now has market on ECB rate cut alert for next Thursday and will be noting any comment from officials ahead of this event. However, focus today will be on the first reading of UK Q1 GDP
data.
(pare/closed(00:00
GMT +02:00)/change, %)
EUR/USD $1,3012 +0,07%
GBP/USD $1,5264 +0,19%
USD/CHF Chf0,9472 +0,21%
USD/JPY Y99,51 +0,11%
EUR/JPY Y129,50 +0,22%
GBP/JPY Y151,91 +0,34%
AUD/USD $1,0279 +0,09%
NZD/USD $0,8476 +0,51%
USD/CAD C$1,0256 -0,05%
00:00 Australia Bank holiday
00:00 New Zealand Bank holiday
08:30 United Kingdom GDP, q/q (Preliminary) Quarter I -0.3% +0.1%
08:30 United Kingdom GDP, y/y (Preliminary) Quarter I +0.2% +0.4%
12:30 U.S. Initial Jobless Claims April 352 352
14:00 U.S. Treasury Sec Lew Speaks
22:45 New Zealand Trade Balance, mln March 414 472
23:30 Japan Tokyo Consumer Price Index, y/y April -1.0% -0.8%
23:30 Japan Tokyo CPI ex Fresh Food, y/y April -0.5% -0.4%
23:30 Japan National Consumer Price Index, y/y March -0.7% -0.8%
23:30 Japan National CPI Ex-Fresh Food, y/y March -0.3% -0.4%
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