Novosti i prognoe: devizno tržište od 25-08-2014

(pare/closed(GMT +2)/change, %)

EUR/USD $1,3190 -0,39%

GBP/USD $1,6569 +0,01%

USD/CHF Chf0,9154 +0,17%

USD/JPY Y104,03 +0,12%

EUR/JPY Y137,22 -0,36%

GBP/JPY Y172,38 +0,10%

AUD/USD $0,9296 -0,19%

NZD/USD $0,8340 -0,16%

USD/CAD C$1,0983 +0,36%

(time / country / index / period / previous value / forecast)

02:00 China Leading Index July +1.3%

08:30 United Kingdom BBA Mortgage Approvals July 43.3 44.2

12:30 U.S. Durable Goods Orders July +1.7% Revised From +0.7% +7.4%

12:30 U.S. Durable Goods Orders ex Transportation July +1.9% Revised From +0.8% +0.5%

12:30 U.S. Durable goods orders ex defense July +0.7%

13:00 U.S. Housing Price Index, m/m June +0.4% +0.3%

13:00 U.S. Housing Price Index, y/y June +5.5%

13:00 U.S. S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices, y/y June +9.3% +8.2%

14:00 U.S. Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index August 7 8

14:00 U.S. Consumer confidence August 90.9 89.1

20:30 U.S. API Crude Oil Inventories August -1.4

22:45 New Zealand Food Prices Index, m/m July +1.4%

22:45 New Zealand Food Prices Index, y/y July +1.2%

The U.S. dollar traded mixed to higher against the most major currencies despite the weaker-than-expected economic data from the U.S. Preliminary services purchasing managers' index declined to 58.5 in August from 60.8 in July, missing forecasts for a drop to 59.2.

New home sales in the U.S. fell by 2.4% to 412,000 units in July, missing expectations for a rise to 426,000 units. That was the slowest pace of new home sales in four months.

June's figure was revised up from 406,000 units.

The greenback remained supported by Friday's comments by Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen in Jackson Hole. Janet Yellen said that the U.S. labour market is not yet fully recovered. But she added that the U.S. labour market was improving. The Fed Chair Yellen offered no signal when the Fed will start to raise its interest rate.

Investors speculate that the Fed may hike its interest rate sooner than expected.

The euro traded mixed against the U.S. dollar. Comments by the ECB President Mario Draghi weighed on the euro. The European Central Bank (ECB) President Mario Draghi said in Jackson Hole on Friday the ECB could add new stimulus measures should inflation decline further. He also said inflation expectations were showing a significant fall.

The weaker-than-expected economic data from Germany also weighed on the euro. Ifo released its indices for Germany. The Ifo Business Climate Index declined to 106.3 in August from 108.0 in July, missing expectations for a drop to 107.1.

The Ifo Current Assessment decreased to 111.1 in August from 112.9 in July.

The Ifo Expectations dropped to 101.7 in August from 103.4 in July.

The National Bank of Belgium released its report on business confidence. The business sentiment index declined to -7.3 in August from -7.5 in July, beating expectations for a fall to -8.3.

The British pound traded mixed against the U.S. dollar in the absence of any major economic reports in the UK. Markets in the UK are closed for a public holiday.

The New Zealand dollar traded mixed against the U.S dollar in the absence of any major reports in New Zealand. In the overnight trading session, the kiwi dropped against the greenback. Investors speculate the Reserve Bank of New Zealand intervened in the market. New Zealand's central bank has recently said the kiwi is too high and mentioned the possibility it could intervene in the market by selling the local currency.

The Australian dollar traded lower against the U.S. dollar in the absence of any major reports in Australia.

The Japanese yen traded mixed against the U.S. dollar due to strong U.S. currency. No major reports were released in Japan.

The Bank of Japan (BoJ) Governor Haruhiko Kuroda said in Jackson Hole on Saturday that the stimulus measures by Japan's central bank were proving effective. Kuroda also said Japan's labour market is showing "significant improvement. He added the BoJ will continue its accommodative monetary policy until the 2% inflation target is met.

The Bank of Japan (BoJ) Governor Haruhiko Kuroda in an interview with Corriere della Sera:

• BoJ could extend its quantitative easing programme if inflation in Japan failed to reach a 2% target by April 2015;
  
• The economy in Japan was recovering in the current quarter after a decline in the second quarter;
  
• He does not expect the Eurozone to slip into deflation;
  
• His main worry is the Ukraine crisis.
  
  

The U.S. Commerce Department released new home sales figures today. New home sales in the U.S. fell by 2.4% to 412,000 units in July, missing expectations for a rise to 426,000 units. That was the slowest pace of new home sales in four months.

June's figure was revised up from 406,000 units.

The median price of new homes rose 2.9% from July 2013 to $269,800.

Economic calendar (GMT0):

(Time/ Region/ Event/ Period/ Previous/ Forecast/ Actual)

00:00 United Kingdom Bank holiday

08:00 Germany IFO - Business Climate August 108.0 107.1 106.3

08:00 Germany IFO - Current Assessment August 112.9 111.1

08:00 Germany IFO - Expectations August 103.4 101.7

The U.S. dollar traded mixed to lower against the most major currencies ahead of the economic data from the U.S. Preliminary services purchasing managers' index is expected to decline to 59.2 in August from 60.8 in July.

New home sales in the U.S. are expected to rise to 426,000 units in July from 406,000 units in June.

The greenback remained supported by Friday's comments by Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen in Jackson Hole. Janet Yellen said that the U.S. labour market is not yet fully recovered. But she added that the U.S. labour market was improving. The Fed Chair Yellen offered no signal when the Fed will start to raise its interest rate.

Investors speculate that the Fed may hike its interest rate sooner than expected.

The euro traded lower against the U.S. dollar after comments by the ECB President Mario Draghi. The European Central Bank (ECB) President Mario Draghi said in Jackson Hole on Friday the ECB could add new stimulus measures should inflation decline further. He also said inflation expectations were showing a significant fall.

The weaker-than-expected economic data from Germany also weighed on the euro. Ifo released its indices for Germany. The Ifo Business Climate Index declined to 106.3 in August from 108.0 in July, missing expectations for a drop to 107.1.

The Ifo Current Assessment decreased to 111.1 in August from 112.9 in July.

The Ifo Expectations dropped to 101.7 in August from 103.4 in July.

The British pound traded higher against the U.S. dollar in the absence of any major economic reports in the UK. Markets in the UK are closed for a public holiday.

EUR/USD: the currency pair fell to $1.3183

GBP/USD: the currency pair rose to $1.6597

USD/JPY: the currency pair declined to Y103.85

The most important news that are expected (GMT0):

13:00 Belgium Business Climate August -7.5 -8.3

13:45 U.S. Services PMI (Preliminary) August 60.8 59.2

14:00 U.S. New Home Sales July 406 426

22:45 New Zealand Trade Balance, mln July 247 -475

EUR/USD

Offers $1.3350, $1.3325/35, $1.3300, $1.3215-20

Bids $1.3185/80, $1.3150, $1.3110-00

GBP/USD

Offers $1.6700

Bids $1.6500

AUD/USD

Offers $0.9380, $0.9350, $0.9330-35

Bids $0.9255/50, $0.9220/00

EUR/JPY

Offers Y139.00, Y138.50, Y138.20

Bids Y137.00, Y136.80, Y136.50

USD/JPY

Offers Y105.50, Y105.00, Y104.50

Bids Y103.20, Y103.00, Y102.50

EUR/GBP

Offers stg0.8100, stg0.8040

Bids stg0.7900

EUR/USD $1.3250(E200mn), $1.3300(E433mn), $1.3320-25(E218mn)

USD/JPY Y103.00($900mn), Y103.10($475mn), Y103.25-30($450mn), Y103.35($1bn), Y104.00($700mn)

GBP/USD $1.6640(stg180mn), $1.6700(stg131mn)

USD/CHF Chf0.8935($236mn), Chf0.8950($124mn)

EUR/CHF Chf1.2100(E100mn)

AUD/USD $0.9200-10(A$270mn), $0.9275(A$245mn), $0.9350(A$209mn)

USD/CAD C$1.0925

Economic calendar (GMT0):

(Time/ Region/ Event/ Period/ Previous/ Forecast/ Actual)

00:00 United Kingdom Bank holiday

08:00 Germany IFO - Business Climate August 108.0 107.1 106.3

08:00 Germany IFO - Current Assessment August 112.9 111.1

08:00 Germany IFO - Expectations August 103.4 101.7

The U.S. dollar traded mixed to higher against the most major currencies due to Friday's comments by Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen in Jackson Hole. Janet Yellen said that the U.S. labour market is not yet fully recovered. But she added that the U.S. labour market was improving. The Fed Chair Yellen offered no signal when the Fed will start to raise its interest rate.

Investors speculate that the Fed may hike its interest rate sooner than expected.

Tensions over Ukraine also weighed on markets.

The New Zealand dollar dropped against the U.S dollar in the absence of any major reports in New Zealand. Investors speculate the Reserve Bank of New Zealand intervened in the market. New Zealand's central bank has recently said the kiwi is too high and mentioned the possibility it could intervene in the market by selling the local currency.

The Australian dollar traded mixed against the U.S. dollar in the absence of any major reports in Australia.

The Japanese yen traded lower against the U.S. dollar due to strong U.S. currency. No major reports were released in Japan.

The Bank of Japan (BoJ) Governor Haruhiko Kuroda said in Jackson Hole on Saturday that the stimulus measures by Japan's central bank were proving effective. Kuroda also said Japan's labour market is showing "significant improvement. He added the BoJ will continue its accommodative monetary policy until the 2% inflation target is met.

EUR/USD: the currency pair declined to $1.3188

GBP/USD: the currency pair traded mixed

USD/JPY: the currency pair rose to Y104.27

The most important news that are expected (GMT0):

13:00 Belgium Business Climate August -7.5 -8.3

13:45 U.S. Services PMI (Preliminary) August 60.8 59.2

14:00 U.S. New Home Sales July 406 426

22:45 New Zealand Trade Balance, mln July 247 -475

EUR / USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.3331 (1637)

$1.3280 (119)

$1.3246 (27)

Price at time of writing this review: $ 1.3206

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.3163 (5968)

$1.3129 (3927)

$1.3089 (6303)

Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options with the expiration date September, 5 is 58416 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,3400 (6838);

- Overall open interest on the PUT options with the expiration date September, 5 is 61665 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,3100 (6303);

- The ratio of PUT/CALL was 1.06 versus 1.10 from the previous trading day according to data from August, 22

GBP/USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.6800 (1803)

$1.6701 (1057)

$1.6604 (524)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.6563

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.6497 (1936)

$1.6399 (932)

$1.6300 (658)

Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options with the expiration date September, 5 is 29078 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,7000 (2760);

- Overall open interest on the PUT options with the expiration date September, 5 is 29583 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,6800 (4026);

- The ratio of PUT/CALL was 1.02 versus 1.03 from the previous trading day according to data from August, 22

* - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange bulletin (CME) is used for the calculation.

** - Open interest takes into account the total number of option contracts that are open at the moment.