Novosti i prognoe: devizno tržište od 26-08-2014

(pare/closed(GMT +2)/change, %)

EUR/USD $1,3168 -0,17%

GBP/USD $1,6540 -0,18%

USD/CHF Chf0,9172 +0,20%

USD/JPY Y104,08 +0,05%

EUR/JPY Y137,05 -0,12%

GBP/JPY Y172,15 -0,13%

AUD/USD $0,9308 +0,13%

NZD/USD $0,8333 -0,08%

USD/CAD C$1,0952 -0,28%

(time / country / index / period / previous value / forecast)

01:30 Australia Construction Work Done Quarter II +0.3% -0.4%

06:00 Germany Gfk Consumer Confidence Survey September 9.0 8.9

06:00 Switzerland UBS Consumption Indicator July 2.06

14:30 U.S. Crude Oil Inventories August -4.5

The U.S. dollar traded mixed against the most major currencies after the mixed U.S. economic data. Durable goods orders in the U.S. jumped 22.6% in July, exceeding expectations for a 7.4% rise, after a 2.7% gain in June. June's figure was revised up from a 1.7% increase. That was the fastest rise and highest level since 1992.

Durable goods orders, excluding transportation, fell 0.8% in July, missing expectations for a 0.5% increase, after a 3.0% gain in June. June's figure was revised up from a 1.9% rise.

Durable goods orders, excluding defence, soared 24.9% in July, after a 0.7% rise in June.

The consumer confidence index rose to 92.4 in August from a 90.3 in July, beating forecasts for a decline to 89.1. July's figure was revised down from 90.9. That was the highest level since October 2007.

S&P/Case-Shiller home price index climbed 8.1% in June, missing forecasts for a 8.2% increase, after a 9.3% rise in May.

Market participants continue to monitor developments in Ukraine. Russian President Vladimir Putin will meet Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko in Minsk today.

The euro traded mixed against the U.S. dollar in the absence of any major economic reports from the Eurozone.

Friday's comments by the ECB President Mario Draghi still weighed on the euro. The European Central Bank (ECB) President Mario Draghi said in Jackson Hole the ECB could add new stimulus measures should inflation decline further. He also said inflation expectations were showing a significant fall.

The British pound traded mixed against the U.S. dollar after the weaker-than-expected mortgage approvals data from the UK. Mortgage approvals in the UK increased by 42,800 in July, missing expectations for a rise of 44,200, after a gain of 43,200 in June. June's figure was revised down from 43,300.

The New Zealand dollar traded mixed against the U.S dollar after the weaker-than-expected trade data from New Zealand. New Zealand's trade deficit was NZ$692 million in July, missing expectations for a decline to a deficit of NZ$475 million, after a surplus of NZ$247 million in June.

The Australian dollar traded higher against the U.S. dollar in the absence of any major reports in Australia.

The Japanese yen traded lower against the U.S. dollar in the absence of any major reports in Japan.

The Conference Board released its consumer confidence index today. The index rose to 92.4 in August from a 90.3 in July, beating forecasts for a decline to 89.1. July's figure was revised down from 90.9. That was the highest level since October 2007.

Lynn Franco, director of economic indicators at the Conference Board, said that consumer confidence in the U.S. rose for the fourth consecutive month.

The U.S. Commerce Department released durable goods orders. Durable goods orders jumped 22.6% in July, exceeding expectations for a 7.4% rise, after a 2.7% gain in June. June's figure was revised up from a 1.7% increase. That was the fastest rise and highest level since 1992.

Durable goods orders, excluding transportation, fell 0.8% in July, missing expectations for a 0.5% increase, after a 3.0% gain in June. June's figure was revised up from a 1.9% rise.

Durable goods orders, excluding defence, soared 24.9% in July, after a 0.7% rise in June.

Increasing demand for new aircraft drove the rise. Orders for civilian aircraft soared 318%, while orders for transportation equipment rose 74.2%.

EUR/USD $1.3185(E379mn), $1.3250(E230mn), $1.3300(E300mn)

USD/JPY Y103.00($430mn), Y103.25($200mn)

EUR/JPY Y138.00(E386mn)

EUR/GBP stg0.7915(E216mn), stg0.7970(E550mn), stg0.7980(E150mn), stg0.8050(E144mn)

AUD/USD $0.9225(A$418mn), $0.9250(A$158mn), $0.9300(A$436mn), $0.9325(A$301mn)

NZD/USD $0.8350(NZ$154mn), $0.8400(NZ$185mn)

USD/CAD C$1.0900($396mn), C$1.0985-1.1000

Economic calendar (GMT0):

(Time/ Region/ Event/ Period/ Previous/ Forecast/ Actual)

02:00 China Leading Index July +1.3% +1.3%

08:30 United Kingdom BBA Mortgage Approvals July 43.3 44.2 42.8

The U.S. dollar traded mixed against the most major currencies ahead of the U.S. economic data. Durable goods orders in the U.S. are expected to rise 7.4% in July, after a 1.7% increase in June.

S&P/Case-Shiller home price index is expected to climb 8.2% in June, after a 9.3% rise in May.

The U.S. consumer confidence index is expected to decline to 89.1 in August from 90.9 in July.

The greenback remained supported by Friday's comments by Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen in Jackson Hole. Janet Yellen said that the U.S. labour market is not yet fully recovered. But she added that the U.S. labour market was improving. The Fed Chair Yellen offered no signal when the Fed will start to raise its interest rate.

Market participants continue to monitor developments in Ukraine. Russian President Vladimir Putin will meet Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko in Minsk today.

The euro traded mixed against the U.S. dollar in the absence of any major economic reports from the Eurozone.

Friday's comments by the ECB President Mario Draghi still weighed on the euro. The European Central Bank (ECB) President Mario Draghi said in Jackson Hole the ECB could add new stimulus measures should inflation decline further. He also said inflation expectations were showing a significant fall.

The British pound traded mixed against the U.S. dollar after the weaker-than-expected mortgage approvals data from the UK. Mortgage approvals in the UK increased by 42,800 in July, missing expectations for a rise of 44,200, after a gain of 43,200 in June. June's figure was revised down from 43,300.

EUR/USD: the currency pair traded mixed

GBP/USD: the currency pair traded mixed

USD/JPY: the currency pair traded mixed

The most important news that are expected (GMT0):

12:30 U.S. Durable Goods Orders July +1.7% Revised From +0.7% +7.4%

12:30 U.S. Durable Goods Orders ex Transportation July +1.9% Revised From +0.8% +0.5%

12:30 U.S. Durable goods orders ex defense July +0.7%

13:00 U.S. S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices, y/y June +9.3% +8.2%

14:00 U.S. Consumer confidence August 90.9 89.1

EUR/USD $1.3185(E379mn), $1.3250(E230mn), $1.3300(E300mn)

USD/JPY Y103.00($430mn), Y103.25($200mn)

EUR/JPY Y138.00(E386mn)

EUR/GBP stg0.7915(E216mn), stg0.7970(E550mn), stg0.7980(E150mn), stg0.8050(E144mn)

AUD/USD $0.9225(A$418mn), $0.9250(A$158mn), $0.9300(A$436mn), $0.9325(A$301mn)

NZD/USD $0.8350(NZ$154mn), $0.8400(NZ$185mn)

USD/CAD C$1.0900($396mn), C$1.0985-1.1000

Economic calendar (GMT0):

(Time/ Region/ Event/ Period/ Previous/ Forecast/ Actual)

02:00 China Leading Index July +1.3% +1.3%

08:30 United Kingdom BBA Mortgage Approvals July 43.3 44.2 42.8

The U.S. dollar traded mixed to lower against the most major currencies. Yesterday's weaker-than-expected U.S. economic data weighed on the greenback. Preliminary services purchasing managers' index declined to 58.5 in August from 60.8 in July, missing forecasts for a drop to 59.2.

New home sales in the U.S. fell by 2.4% to 412,000 units in July, missing expectations for a rise to 426,000 units. That was the slowest pace of new home sales in four months.

Market participants continue to monitor developments in Ukraine. Russian President Vladimir Putin will meet Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko in Minsk today.

The New Zealand dollar traded mixed against the U.S dollar after the weaker-than-expected trade data from New Zealand. New Zealand's trade deficit was NZ$692 million in July, missing expectations for a decline to a deficit of NZ$475 million, after a surplus of NZ$247 million in June.

The Australian dollar traded mixed against the U.S. dollar in the absence of any major reports in Australia.

The Japanese yen traded higher against the U.S. dollar in the absence of any major reports in Japan.

EUR/USD: the currency pair traded mixed

GBP/USD: the currency pair traded mixed

USD/JPY: the currency pair fell to Y103.74

The most important news that are expected (GMT0):

12:30 U.S. Durable Goods Orders July +1.7% Revised From +0.7% +7.4%

12:30 U.S. Durable Goods Orders ex Transportation July +1.9% Revised From +0.8% +0.5%

12:30 U.S. Durable goods orders ex defense July +0.7%

13:00 U.S. S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices, y/y June +9.3% +8.2%

14:00 U.S. Consumer confidence August 90.9 89.1

EUR / USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.3319 (2008)

$1.3282 (1242)

$1.3231 (66)

Price at time of writing this review: $ 1.3200

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.3162 (4557)

$1.3141 (5957)

$1.3113 (3599)

Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options with the expiration date September, 5 is 60257 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,3400 (7078);

- Overall open interest on the PUT options with the expiration date September, 5 is 60751 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,3100 (6012);

- The ratio of PUT/CALL was 1.00 versus 1.06 from the previous trading day according to data from August, 25

GBP/USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.6800 (1983)

$1.6701 (932)

$1.6604 (613)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.6585

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.6498 (1973)

$1.6399 (982)

$1.6300 (663)

Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options with the expiration date September, 5 is 29322 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,7000 (2796);

- Overall open interest on the PUT options with the expiration date September, 5 is 29826 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,6800 (4026);

- The ratio of PUT/CALL was 1.02 versus 1.02 from the previous trading day according to data from August, 25

* - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange bulletin (CME) is used for the calculation.

** - Open interest takes into account the total number of option contracts that are open at the moment.