Novosti i prognoe: devizno tržište od 28-12-2017

00:30 Australia Private Sector Credit, m/m November 0.4% 0.4%

00:30 Australia Private Sector Credit, y/y November 5.3%

09:00 Eurozone Private Loans, Y/Y November 2.7% 2.8%

09:00 Eurozone M3 money supply, adjusted y/y November 5.0% 4.9%

13:00 Germany CPI, y/y (Preliminary) December 1.8% 1.5%

13:00 Germany CPI, m/m (Preliminary) December 0.3% 0.5%

18:00 U.S. Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count December 747

U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) decreased by 4.6 million barrels from the previous week. At 431.9 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are in the middle of the average range for this time of year.

Total motor gasoline inventories increased by 0.6 million barrels last week, and are above the upper limit of the average range. Finished gasoline inventories decreased while blending components inventories increased last week.

Distillate fuel inventories increased by 1.1 million barrels last week and are in the middle of the average range for this time of year. Propane/propylene inventories decreased by 2.7 million barrels last week, but are in the middle of the average range. Total commercial petroleum inventories decreased by 8.8 million barrels last week.

The MNI Chicago Business Barometer rose to 67.6 in December, up from 63.9 in November, closing the year at the highest level since March 2011. On a calendar quarter basis, the Barometer rose to 65.9 in Q4 from 61.0 in Q3, the best quarterly performance since Q1 2011, only the second time in the last decade there have been three consecutive above-60 readings in the Oct-Dec period

The international trade deficit was $69.7 billion in November, up $1.6 billion from $68.1 billion in October. Exports of goods for November were $133.7 billion, $3.8 billion more than October exports. Imports of goods for November were $203.4 billion, $5.4 billion more than October imports.

Wholesale inventories for November, adjusted for seasonal variations but not for price changes, were estimated at an end-of-month level of $610.2 billion, up 0.7 percent from October 2017, and were up 3.8 percent (±0.7 percent) from November 2016. The September 2017 to October 2017 percentage change was revised from down 0.5 percent (±0.4 percent) to down 0.4 percent.

In the week ending December 23, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 245,000, unchanged from the previous week's unrevised level of 245,000. The 4-week moving average was 237,750, an increase of 1,750 from the previous week's unrevised average of 236,000.

EUR/USD: 1.1800 (1.1 b)

GBP/USD: 1.3425 (274 m), 1.3500 (825 m)

USD/JPY: 112.00 (517 m), 112.50 (435 m), 113.00 (1.8 b), 113.50 (3.5 b)

Mortgage activity has been building through the year, helped by increasing numbers of first-time buyers. We estimate gross mortgage lending in November was £23.1 billion, 9 per cent higher than a year earlier, with 60 per cent of all new lending provided by High Street banks.

Credit card spending increased in November, raising the annual growth in outstanding credit to 7.5 per cent. This growth reflects how cards are increasingly becoming consumers' preferred way of borrowing, rather than personal loans or overdrafts.

Business borrowing has continued to moderate through 2017, with the major sectors of manufacturing, wholesale and retail business showing only modest annual growth, while construction and property-related sectors have contracted their bank borrowing over the year.

EUR/USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.2000 (3735)

$1.1983 (3999)

$1.1969 (616)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.1931

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.1886 (3887)

$1.1844 (4835)

$1.1797 (4665)

Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options and PUT options with the expiration date January, 5 is 95115 contracts (according to data from December, 27) with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,2200 (5583);

GBP/USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.3519 (4823)

$1.3489 (2617)

$1.3467 (2478)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.3444

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.3402 (1967)

$1.3373 (2546)

$1.3336 (2084)

Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options with the expiration date January, 5 is 33202 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,3500 (4823);

- Overall open interest on the PUT options with the expiration date January, 5 is 34217 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,3250 (2802);

- The ratio of PUT/CALL was 1.03 versus 1.04 from the previous trading day according to data from December, 27

* - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange bulletin (CME) is used for the calculation.

** - Open interest takes into account the total number of option contracts that are open at the moment.

Retail sales in Japan were up a seasonally adjusted 1.9 percent on month in November, the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry, cited by rttnews.

That beat forecasts for a gain of 0.7 percent following the downwardly revised 0.1 percent contraction in October.

On a yearly basis, retail sales climbed 2.2 percent - again topping expectations for a gain of 1.0 percent following the 0.2 percent slide in the previous month.

Sales from large retailers advanced an annual 1.4 percent, exceeding expectations for a gain of 1.0 percent after dipping 0.7 percent a month earlier.